Natural Gas Opportunities in Asia Presented by the Latest Gas Development Projects and Recent Exploration Finds

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Frost & Sullivan Analysis of Natural Gas Opportunities in Asia.

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  • Myanmar positioned in-between two growing markets - China and India Pakistan and Bangladesh potential to be self-sufficient to meet growing gas needs.
  • Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand – contain relatively more un-explored territories Concerns – Slow progress in the liberalization of the Gas Industry? Private investments required for new exploration and to shore up Gas production to meet current contracts PSC sharing and Gas policies – gas supply for domestic consumption versus supply contracts – Indonesia, Bangladesh.
  • Natural Gas Opportunities in Asia Presented by the Latest Gas Development Projects and Recent Exploration Finds

    1. 1. Natural Gas Opportunities in Asia Presented by the Latest Gas Development Projects and Recent Exploration Finds April 10 th , 2007 Subramanya Bettadapura Industry Manager, Energy Practice, Frost & Sullivan © 2007 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
    2. 2. <ul><li>Natural Gas Reserves in Asia, 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Gas Exploration and Development Activity in Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Discoveries and Major Gas Projects in Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Discoveries and Major Gas Projects in Malaysia </li></ul><ul><li>Discoveries and Major Gas Projects China </li></ul><ul><li>Discoveries and Major Gas Projects in Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Discoveries and Major Gas Projects in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh </li></ul><ul><li>Other Countries </li></ul>Table of Contents
    3. 3. Proved Gas Reserves (in Trillion Cubic Meters) in the Asia Pacific Region at the end of 2005 Introduction TOTAL: 14.84 TCM Source: BP 1TCM=35.3TCF Malaysia: 2.48 Indonesia: 2.76 China: 2.35 Bangladesh: 0.44 Australia: 2.52 India: 1.1 Myanmar: 0.5 Brunei: 0.34 PNG: 0.43 Pakistan: 0.96 Thailand: 0.35 Vietnam: 0.24
    4. 4. <ul><li>Gas Production between 2001 and 2005 </li></ul>Production Growth of select countries in Asia (2001 – 2005) ASIA Source: Data from BP Statistical Review
    5. 5. <ul><li>Gas Consumption between 2001 and 2005 </li></ul>Consumption Growth of select countries in Asia (2001 – 2005) ASIA Source: Data from BP Statistical Review
    6. 6. <ul><li>Widening gap between consumption and production in Asia. Production in the region not increasing in tune with consumption. Thus, gas importing countries in Asia will have to rely on imports from other regions – Australia, Iran, Qatar and other gas surplus countries </li></ul>Consumption versus Production Gap - Asia ASIA Note: Production and Consumption figures are for Asia only (not including Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea) Source: Data from BP Statistical Review Between 2001 and 2005, consumption increased 32% across Asia. Production increased 31% during this period
    7. 7. GAS EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS - ASIA Introduction Source: Frost & Sullivan INDIA – Potential major importer INDONESIA CHINA – Potential major importer JAPAN – Largest Importer S. KOREA – Major Importer MYANMAR BRUNEI THAILAND EXPORTER IMPORTER MALAYSIA SINGAPORE TAIWAN
    8. 8. <ul><li>Strong Demand for LNG from Japan and South Korea </li></ul><ul><li>Demand for LNG from China and India set to increase </li></ul><ul><li>Proximity of Thailand to major gas exporters makes natural gas pipelines viable. Singapore connected to Malaysia and Indonesia through natural gas pipelines </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in demand and new discoveries give a thrust for the completion of the other planned phases of the Trans-ASEAN Gas pipeline </li></ul><ul><li>Both Thailand and Singapore exploring options to build LNG import terminals </li></ul><ul><li>China, India, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – Domestic E&P programs to supplement imports and to meet increasing gas needs </li></ul>Demand Side Trends Exploration & Development
    9. 9. <ul><li>Liquefaction costs are reducing making LNG more attractive. LNG emerges as a viable option for long distance transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Australia, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and UAE – major global competitors for Asian Exporters </li></ul><ul><li>Australia has supply contracts with Japan, South Korea and China. </li></ul>GLOBAL COMPETITORS FOR ASIAN EXPORTERS Global Competition 2008 to 2012 – Window of Opportunity to Lock-in Customers in the Asia-Pacific region? Asia Pacific region is a sellers’ market at present and is expected to remain one till 2012 after which it is likely to transition to a buyers’ market. So, there is a window of opportunity for suppliers that opens in 2008 and closes four or five years later to lock in customers in the Asia-Pacific while there is a shortfall in supply Development of new gas fields in Australia is being accelerated to start supply as early as 2008. Securing customers after 2012 is likely to be difficult because supply from plants in Qatar and Iran - which have reserves of 52.5 trillion cubic meters of gas, or 21 times the proven reserves in Australia – will start supplying to the market.
    10. 10. <ul><li>Field Surveys </li></ul><ul><li>Drilling equipment and services </li></ul><ul><li>Well assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Production Platforms supply </li></ul><ul><li>Support and Maintenance services for Development projects </li></ul><ul><li>Pipelines </li></ul><ul><li>LNG plants (Liquefaction plants) </li></ul><ul><li>LNG import terminals and Re-gasification plants </li></ul><ul><li>Marine Vessels (FSOs, LNG Carriers, Pipe-laying vessels) </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment supply (Turbo-machinery, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Gas to Power (Gas power plants) </li></ul>Opportunities in exploration and development projects ASIA During the Period 2002 to 2006, US$28 to US $30 billion is estimated to have been spent on offshore drilling in Asia The Pipeline expenditure in Asia during the period 2002 to 2006 is estimated to be US$15 to US $17 billion Asian Shipyards report growing number of orders for offshore production units and rigs Offshore Support Companies continue to display impressive growth
    11. 11. Exploration and Development Activity – Asia Snapshot Exploration & Development Philippines Offshore Palawan Vietnam Nam Con Son China Panyu, Hui Zhui India KG Basin India Rajasthan Pakistan Zamazama Indonesia Maleo Indonesia Bontang Indonesia Natuna Sea Blocks Malaysia Guntong E Indonesia Kakap Field Malaysia Offshore Sarawak Myanmar Shwe Field Source: Frost & Sullivan
    12. 12. Discoveries and Major gas projects INDONESIA Source: Frost & Sullivan Maleo Development Proposed Pipeline Tangguh Jatirarangon field Onshore Pondok Tengah field Lukah IX Natuna Sea Block A Tunu Field Development Bontang Kerendan Kakap Field Padang LNG
    13. 13. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Indonesia Indonesia
    14. 14. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Malaysia Malaysia 2006 E&P Spending in Malaysia: RM16billion Source: Frost & Sullivan PM 302 Pisagan 1A Oil & Gas Terminal at Kimanis Kanowit 1 E-11 Hub Integrated Gas Project E-8, F13 West and F13 East satellite gas fields PC4-1 exploration well F-38, F2 attic and B12 Guntong Hub
    15. 15. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Malaysia Malaysia
    16. 16. Discoveries and Major gas projects in China China Shanghai’s LNG receiving terminal Fujian LNG Import terminal Pearl River basin Husky Energy Liwan 3-1-1, Block 29/26 Puguang Gas Field Proposed West-East Pipeline -2 Hui Zhou Gas Field Panyu Gas Field Source: Frost & Sullivan
    17. 17. Discoveries and Major gas projects in China China
    18. 18. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam Shwe & Shwepyu Block A-1, Mya Block A-3 Proposed Myanmar – Bangladesh – India Gas Pipeline Proposed Arakan Kunming Pipeline Chauk Field Proposed LNG import facility Phu Horn Project Bongkot Phase IV Arthit Field Ban Yen 2A Song Hong Basin Ca Ngu Vang Rong Doi Nam Con Son Source: Frost & Sullivan
    19. 19. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam
    20. 20. Discoveries and Major gas projects in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh India, Pakistan and Bangladesh Krishna Godavari Basin ONGC KG-DWN-A-1 KG-DWN-E-1 KG-DWN-U-1 KG-DWN-W-1 Reliance Dhirubhai 1 & 3 D6 Rajasthan Focus Energy – SGL1 Vasai-East Bangora-1 Well ZamZama Field Mahanadi Basin Source: Frost & Sullivan Kochi LNG Terminal
    21. 21. Discoveries and Major gas projects in Other Countries in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
    22. 22. <ul><li>The Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) has discovered a commercial natural gas deposit in the Donghae 6-1 sector of the Sea of Japan </li></ul>Discoveries and Major gas projects in Other Countries in Asia South Korea Singapore Rest of Asia <ul><li>LNG terminal by 2012. Contract to be awarded in 2008. Project cost estimated to be $500million </li></ul>Philippines <ul><li>Forum Energy has surveyed the Sampaguita gas discovery at offshore Palawan. Results show in place gas reserves of 3.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf) with upside reserves of approximately 10 tcf </li></ul>

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