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Microcars, Mega Promises – Overview of European Microcar Market
 

Microcars, Mega Promises – Overview of European Microcar Market

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An analyst briefing presentation by Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst, Automotive & Transportation, Frost & Sullivan.

An analyst briefing presentation by Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst, Automotive & Transportation, Frost & Sullivan.

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    Microcars, Mega Promises – Overview of European Microcar Market Microcars, Mega Promises – Overview of European Microcar Market Presentation Transcript

    • Microcars, Mega Promises –Overview of European Microcar Market Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst Automotive & Transportation
    • Vishwas Shankar Functional Expertise Specific functional expertise in: • Competitive intelligence and benchmarking • Market analysis and business opportunity assessment • OEM strategy on new products market entry and product price positioning Industry Expertise Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives • Electric vehicles and technologies • Microcars What I Bring to the Team • Understanding of the electric vehicle market and Driver Assistance System technology and marketVishwas Shankar • Strategic thinking & strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management toolsIndustry Analyst • Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring and executing complex engagementsAutomotive & Transportation Career HighlightsFrost & Sullivan Having worked with leading firms and associations, carry a total of 7 years work experience as below:Europe • Assistant Manager - Purchase, Renault Nissan Technology and Business Centre India Private LtdChennai, India • Deputy Manager - Purchase, Mahindra Renault Private Ltd. • PGET, Mahindra & Mahindra Automotive • Project Assistant (DLPD) and Teaching Assistant (M.E. Group), BITS – Pilani • Intern, PED, Sundaram-Clayton Ltd • Intern, Foundry, Perambur Locoworks Education • Master of Engineering in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani • Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani 2
    • Research Scope Geographic Coverage 26 European Nations 26 European Nations Base Year 2010 2010 Forecast Period 2011 to 2017 2011 to 2017 Vehicle Type Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Types of Drivetrain Covered All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid) All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid) •• The analysis contained in this research service is based on: The analysis contained in this research service is based on: information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise Source: Frost & Sullivan 3
    • Definitions – The Study Scope Includes Quadricycles as well as the Newly Emerging Sub-A Segment Microcar Market: Definition (Europe), 2010 Maximum Weight (w/o Maximum Continuous weight of Passenger/ Segment Category Speed Power gaseous fuel Utility (km/h) (kW) tank/bat.) (kg) Light On-road 1 or 2 people including L6Ae ≤ 45 ≤4 ≤ 350 Quadricycle driver Loading bed area > Light Mini-car for L6Be - U ≤ 45 ≤6 ≤ 350 30% of vehicle length X Utility width Light Mini-car for 1 or 2 people including L6Be - P ≤ 45 ≤6 ≤ 350 Passenger driverMicrocar Heavy on-road 1 or 2 people including L7Ae > 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400 Quadricycle driver Loading bed area > Heavy Mini-car L7Be - U > 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400 30% of vehicle length X for Utility width Heavy Mini-car ≤ 4 people including L7Be - P > 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 550 for Passenger driver Over 550 to 2/4 people including Sub-A Emerging ~75-150 15-40 ~1100 driver 4/5 people including A Basic ~200 25-50 Over ~900 driver Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
    • Microcars Market in Europe – Key Takeaways Microcar Market: Key Takeaways of Microcar Market (Europe), 2010-2017 A new class of vehicles emerging in the European automotive industry which is 1 the Sub-A segment. It is positioned between the L7-Category of Vehicles (quadricycles) and the A-Segment Vehicles. 35 new base models of 16 quadricycles and 19 Sub-A vehicles will be launched 2 in the next three years in the microcars segment. All the European OEMs or 7 out of the top 10 global OEMs will launch microcar 3 models in Europe by 2013. Nearly 100% of the quadricycles and 85% of the Sub-A vehicles announced will 4 come in electric vehicle offering including hybrids. Source: Frost & Sullivan 5
    • Microcar Vehicle Scenario Analysis: Potential sales of 280,000 units in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017 Microcar Market: Scenario Analysis (Europe), 2007-2017 600,000 CAGR (2010 – 2017): 48% 500,000 400,000Units 300,000 CAGR (2010 – 2017): 41% CAGR (2010 – 2017): 39% 200,000 100,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Conservative Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Optimistic Scenario Source: Frost & Sullivan Since their announcements in 2010, there is a new category of sub-A vehicles emerging within the microcar segment Example - TATA Nano EV, Renault Twizy ZE and Peugeot BB1. Scenario Analysis 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 QUADRICYCLES ONLY QUADRICYCLES + SUB-A VEHICLES Optimistic 27,112 50,000 550,000 Frost & Sullivan 27,112 37,000 280,000 Conservative 27,112 28,000 220,000 6
    • 16 Quadricycles in the Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Modelsby 2013; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next 3 years Microcar Market: Planned Microcar Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017 Existing Future ? ? NT3 Ambra Optimax BE Two Sonique ZENN MyCar 4-seat MyCar Coupe Blowcar Nova Ixo M.Go Piaggio Ligier Ligier Grecav Microcar Newteon Newteon Dario Di Camillo Quadricycle Ligier Ligier Ligier Microcar ? E--City Microcar Crossline Scouty Roadline Barooder Speedino CH26 E2 Plus SC4P Queenstar Zero Pole Vehicule Aixam Aixam Aixam Aixam Chatenet Chatenet Chatenet EVE Simplicity GEF Motor Tazarri du FuturMICROCAR XTOO Mega City EKE Berlina Friendly F-City Mycar BUDDY G-Wiz Land Glider 4 Seater 2 Seater M.Go Electric Ixo Electric Estrima YDEA Ligier Aixam Grecav Heuliez Pole Vehicule Newteon Newteon Pure mobility REVA Micro-Vett Infiniti Little Electric Little Electric Microcar Ligier du Futur Twizy Z.E. Townpod Renault NXR NXG Nano EV BB1 Nissan REVA REVA TATA PSA Sub-A MicroTwingo Neoma Nano T25 POP City EV-N Gordon Kia Lotus Renault Lumeneo Europa Honda Murray TATA Urban T27 Smera Eclectic 2 Commuter Gordon Mio City Lumeneo Venturi Fiat FAM Auto Rinspeed Murray Lacoste PSA 500 Agila Ka 107 C1 Panda Fiat iQ based 500 EV Opel Ford PSA PSA City C-Zero i0n i-MiEV Smart ED Fiat Toyota Fiat PSA PSA Mitsubishi Daimler A Th!nk Bluezero E-Cell E-up! Leon Twin Drive Daimler VW Seat Key models on display at Paris Motor Show 2010 Electric Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
    • Key Drivers and Restraints Microcar Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (Europe), 2010-2017 Development of Mega cities & changing Mobility Trends Exemption from (30 Mega cities by 2025) city congestion charges of Growing interest in Technology 1,600 Pounds Development Drivers urban vehicles with equivalent low emissions and Li- ion batteries low fuel Autonomy consumption (Prices to come down by 50-70%) City Driving “sans permis” (no license) Restraints Inadequate charging infrastructure for Increased electric microcars Legislative Safety concerns as controls regulation does not require Crash Testing Electric Quadricycles - Limited Speed or Power output Source: Frost & Sullivan 8
    • About 40% Microcars to be Launched in the Sub-16,000 Euro Price Microcar Market: Proposed Microcars Length and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017 24 Smera Zero Tazarri Lumeneo City NXG Lotus REVAPrice without Subsidy ( € ‘000) 16 MicroTwingoM.Go Electric Renault Microcar NXR REVA SC4P BB1 Blowcar Simplicity PSA Blowcar Dario Di Camillo Dario Di Camillo ZENN 8 Microcar Lacoste Nano EV PSA TATA Twizy Z.E. Nano Europa NT3 Renault TATA Piaggio 0 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 Length (mm) Source: Frost & Sullivan 9
    • Urban Mobility, Congestion/Low-Emission Zones and Charging Infrastructure Development Will Drive Microcar EV Uptake in Megacities Microcar Market: Top Ten Cities and Key Driving Market Attractiveness Factors (Europe), 2010 • Largest European city in terms of vehicle sales, population etc – thus presents huge Top 10 Cities for Microcar EVs opportunity for Microcar EVs • Oslo promotes Microcar EVs by giving 1. London 6. Cologne • Well defined roadmap for charging 100% concession on the applicable infrastructure and support from Mayor and congestion charge for internal 2. Paris 7. Manchester Transport dept to make London the Global combustion vehicles 3. Berlin 8. Hamburg Microcar EV Capital with purchase subsidies, parking benefits, and various 4. Madrid 9. Munich • Hamburg is one of the important exemptions markets in Germany, with many initiatives including carsharing. 5. Birmingham 10. Oslo • There is also a better network of• Paris will be home for charging infrastructure around Microcar EVs closely this region making Microcar EV with maximum charging commuting more practical stations expected by • Low Emission Zones (which allow 2015 only Euro 4 cars) is a major driver• The city is also for attractive Microcar EV sales promoting an Microcar EV carsharing program, offering various EV incentives and good per-capita Country Attractiveness income that can High boost sales • Madrid is expected to be one of the Top 5 cities for Medium charging infrastructure development by 2015 given the efforts of Spanish Government Low • It is also committed to support carsharing initiatives by many including a major French-Japanese OEM. Source: Frost & Sullivan 10
    • Case Study: Mega City from the Quadricycle Market Leader Aixam isAggressive in Vehicle Features in the Category and Expected to BoostFuture Quadricycle Unit Sales Microcar Market: Aixam Mega City (Europe), 2010 Dimensions Battery and Electric Motor • 100% Zero Emission Vehicle• Length = 2,897 mm • 8.2 kWh AGM lead batteries• Width = 1,474 mm • 4 kW electric motor• Height = 1,470 mm • TBA N.m. wheel torque• Wheelbase = 1,960 mm• Turning circle = 4 m Design Styling Range, Speed & Acceleration • Attractive design Mega City • Sporty looks• Range – 60 to 80 km Spacious city car and benefits • Tough aluminium safety structure• Top Speed – 65 km/h from road tax exemptions, not so • 100% recyclable material usage• 0-50 km/h – about 17 seconds aggressive range or acceleration. Vehicle Features Other Aixam MEGA Models • Electric Heater with 3 speed blowerVehicle Weight, Seating & Luggage • Sudden deceleration - automatically Capacity illuminating hazard lights Mega Body Aluminium • Tinted windows• 645 kg inclusive of battery • Econometer light (high-consumption• 2 or 4 seater options pre-warning)• 3 doors Mega City Pro • Central door locking• Maximum of 800 litres • 3 point inertia seat belts • Rear fog, Reversing lights Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
    • The Average Top Speed of Quadricycles Announced is 65 km/h and About 85% of them Will Have Lengths Between 2.1 m and 3.1 m Microcar Market: Specifications of Key Quadricycles Planned (Europe), 2010-2017 Battery / ICE / Length Motor All Electric Top Speed Manufacturer Model Hybrid (mm) Power (kW) Range (km) (km/h)Microcar ZENN Electric 3,068 5.7 100 40Tazzari Zero Battery 2,880 15 140 100Dario Di Camillo Blowcar Battery / ICE 3,000 12 180 50studiosSimplicity SC4P Battery 3,080 8 200 90Infiniti Land Glider Battery 3,100 TBA TBA TBALittle Electric 2 / 4 Seat Battery 2,950 4 100 45Microcar M.Go Battery 3,026 4-7.5 80-150 45-70Renault Twizy Z.E. Battery 2,303 4-15 100 45-75REVA NXR Battery 3,280 25 160 104Lotus City Car Hybrid 3,400 162 60 120 Nano EuropaTata Battery 3,090 40 120 110 EV Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
    • More than 90% of the OEMs Strongly Agree Towards HavingAdditional Safety Features and Following Tighter Emission Norms toDrive the Microcar Segment Microcar Market: Manufacturers Future Outlook on Microcar Segment (Europe), 2010-2017 Tighter CO2 emission norms will Safety features as a key concern will be OEMs Perspective drive the microcar segment? part of all microcars?Mainstream OEM1Mainstream OEM2Mainstream OEM3Mainstream OEM4Quadricycle OEM1Quadricycle OEM2Quadricycle OEM3Quadricycle OEM4Mainstream OEM5 (2 Wheeler)Quadricycle OEM5 Strong Perception Weak Perception Source: Frost & Sullivan 13
    • Key Recommendations Microcars to offer significant sales potential – to new avenues such as car sharing / car pooling, urban integrated mobility, public rental fleets, first and last mile connectivity Use of light weight Sharing of materials to design components / powertrain & systems between chassis systems to A segment and help weight Vehicle microcars to help reduction Manufacturers reduce cost Advanced engine Battery powered technologies and microcars – ideal electronic / by-wire solution for eco chassis technologies to friendly urban offer higher fuel transportation efficiency, lower emissions and significant space and design flexibility Source: Frost & Sullivan 14
    • Electric Vehicles Research Published 2010Sl. No Published Title Research Code 1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18 Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends 2 M67A-18 Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010 3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18 4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18 5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18 6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18 7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18 8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18 9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18 10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18 11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18 Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price 12 M682-18 Positioning 13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18 14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18 15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18 16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18 15
    • Upcoming Electric Vehicles Research Plan 2011Sl. No Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type 1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend 2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 3 NA ME Research North America Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 4 EU ME Research Europe Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 5 China ME Research China Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station 6 NA Megatrend Infrastructure in North America 7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and 8 NA Megatrend Product and Price Positioning 9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research 10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research 11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research 12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in China China ME Research 13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research 14 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend 16
    • Voting1. Will the Microcar segment reach 125,000-150,000 unit sales by 2015? a) Strongly Agree, lead by sub-A segment vehicles sales b) Strongly Agree, lead by light and heavy quadricycles sales c) Maybe it can grow to the above levels by 2015 d) Too early to forecast (as the potential for growth could be more) e) Strongly disagree on the above numbers for 2015.2. Would you agree to sub-A segment of vehicles homologated under Quadricycles or M1 Category (e.g. TATA Nano, Gordon Murray T.27) a) As a Quadricycle (laws unchanged) b) As M1 Category (laws unchanged) c) As a Quadricycle (laws amended) d) As M1 Category (laws amended) e) Entire new set of homologation laws3. Quadricycles and sub-A vehicles segment will have end consumers largely coming from which of the following: a) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 16-25 b) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 25-35 c) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 35-45 d) Male 20-30%, Female 70-80% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30 e) Male 70-80%, Female 20-30% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30 17
    • Next Steps Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (enquiries@frost.com) Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011 (www.gil-global.com) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) 18
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    • For Additional InformationJoanna Lewandowska Cyril CromierCorporate Communications Manager Sales DirectorEurope Europe+48 22 390 41 46 +33 1 42 81 22 44joanna.lewandowska@frost.com cyril.cromier@frost.comSarwant SinghPartnerGlobal A&T+44 207 915 7843sarwant.singh@frost.com 21