Looking Through the Crystal Ball: Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World 1
Agenda Introduction and Research Methodology Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future Urbanisation: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities E-Mobility Social Trends: Geo Socialisation, Generation Y SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits Future Robotic Technology Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology Innovating to Zero! Overview of Next Top 30 Mega Trends Key Strategic Conclusions How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategie
Definition of a Mega Trend What is a Mega Trend? Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organisational Functions Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA CORRIDORS The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million) MEGA CITY City With A Minimum Population Of 10 Million EXAMPLE: Greater London MEGA REGIONS Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million) EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming “Jo-Toria”)
By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities 1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London Creation of the historic centre and districts 2000s Suburbanisation Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road 2015s Network City Megacity Trend
City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple downtowns.
Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation
Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Songdo Oslo Reykjavik Hammarby Sjöstad Clonburris Copenhagen Montreal Vancouver St Davids Seattle Freiburg Toronto Portland Dongtan Paris Changsha Treasure Island Barcelona Destiny Meixi Lake Coyote Springs Khajuraho Babcock Ranch Arcosanti Pune Singapore City Kochi Bogota Waitakere, N.Z. Curitiba Cape Town Moreland, Australia Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities Legend Cities built from scratch Masdar Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities Source: Frost & Sullivan
Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart TownshipPrivate infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working
India’s first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.
This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion
Dasve – the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.
E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers (2020) Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers (2020) Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020 Used For: Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events Used For: Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers Used For: Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts Used For: Local Real Estate News, Geo Socialising with Friends
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7 Civic and Environmentally Friendly Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious” Personalisation and Individualisation Gaming Gizmos Personalised Search and News Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalised Products Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) Microblogs
GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system
Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management
By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D 75) Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurements than GPS or GLONASS China developing Beidou Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling IPTV Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications
Future Robots: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will “Act as a Domestic Help” in Everyday Life Robots as Pets Robots for Household Chores Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot Robots for Companionship Robots as Waiters Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business Robots as Nannies
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes Virtual Business Conferences Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives
Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural, Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms “Holodecks”: F-16 Flight Simulator Haptic Entertainment Experiences Wearable Computing: Gestural Interfaces Are Being Developed that Allows Humans to Interact and Augment Physical World with Digital Data Applications of Wearable Computing: Using Hand as a Keypad or Dial Pad Intuitive Haptic Gaming Experiences Surface Computers: Browsing of Internet on Any Surface Through Gestures Source: MIT Media Group, 2010
“Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020 Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020 Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories Zero Debts Zero Defects Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept) Zero Breaches of Security Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Crime Rates
Overview of Next Top Mega Trends SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing Women Empowerment and Women CEOs New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots Future Global 500 Companies by Region Future of Consumer Electronics Power to the Middle Class Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers New Trade Zones Wireless Intelligence
Overview of Next Top Mega Trends (Contd...) New Business Models Future Broadband Applications From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being Innovative Technologies of the Future Future of Global Power Generation Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN
Key Strategic Conclusions Mega Trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities It is important to build a healthy eco-system around your opportunity related to a mega trend as it can be a source of competitive advantage and raise barriers to entry (e.g. App store advantage vs Google)
From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Mega Trend Selected Trends That Impact Your Business And Markets Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs Macro Micro Example: Urbanisation, Satellites Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car Impact on Future Product/ Technology Sub Trend A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City Cars, Car sharing, New Technology Opportunities – Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio Impact to Your Industry Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts Example: Three concepts of urbanisation will emerge: megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities Example: People in future will need “personal mobility” not necessarily cars to commute to work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport including cars
Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Automotive & Transportation + 44 207 915 7843 firstname.lastname@example.org Archana Amarnath Team Leader + 44 207 915 7893 email@example.com For More Information Contact Us