Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World

Looking Through the Crystal Ball:
Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World
1

Agenda
Introduction and Research Methodology
Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
Urbanisation: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities
E-Mobility
Social Trends: Geo Socialisation, Generation Y
SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits
Future Robotic Technology
Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology
Innovating to Zero!
Overview of Next Top 30 Mega Trends
Key Strategic Conclusions
How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategie

Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend?
Impact of Mega Trends on Key Organisational Functions
Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.

Top Mega Trends of the Future

Urbanisation

Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million)
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 10 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming “Jo-Toria”)

By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
1950s Urbanisation
2020s : Branded Cities
Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London
Creation of the historic centre and districts
2000s Suburbanisation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
2015s Network City
Megacity Trend
City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple downtowns.
Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation
Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

Amsterdam
London
Boulder
Tianjin
GIFT
San Francisco
Göteborg
Stockholm
Songdo
Oslo
Reykjavik
Hammarby Sjöstad
Clonburris
Copenhagen
Montreal
Vancouver
St Davids
Seattle
Freiburg
Toronto
Portland
Dongtan
Paris
Changsha
Treasure Island
Barcelona
Destiny
Meixi Lake
Coyote Springs
Khajuraho
Babcock Ranch
Arcosanti
Pune
Singapore City
Kochi
Bogota
Waitakere, N.Z.
Curitiba
Cape Town
Moreland, Australia
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
Legend
Cities built from scratch
Masdar
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Source: Frost & Sullivan

Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart TownshipPrivate infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working
India’s first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.
This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion
Dasve – the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.

E-Mobility

E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers (2020)
Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers (2020)
Sanyo Enacle
XM 3000 Electric Moped
The GEM Peapod
The Smith Newton

Social Trends

Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020
Used For:
Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events
Used For:
Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers
Used For:
Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts
Used For:
Local Real Estate News, Geo Socialising with Friends

Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally Friendly
Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalisation and Individualisation
Gaming Gizmos
Personalised Search and News
Instant Text Messaging
Eco- Transport
Smart Phones
Social Networking Profiles
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Instant Chat
Facebook-on-the Move
Personalised Products
Paperless Banking
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
Microblogs

Technology

New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
GNSS Enabled Applications:
Navigation (Civil, Military)
Broadband Internet and Wireless Network
GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system
Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management
By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D 75)
Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurements than GPS or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling IPTV
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications

Future Robots: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will “Act as a Domestic Help” in Everyday Life
Robots as Pets
Robots for Household Chores
Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot
Robots for Companionship
Robots as Waiters
Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business
Robots as Nannies

Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Surgeries
and Medical Training
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes
Virtual Business Conferences
Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips
to Different Countries and Planets
Social Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives

Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural, Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms
“Holodecks”: F-16 Flight Simulator
Haptic Entertainment Experiences
Wearable Computing: Gestural Interfaces Are Being Developed that Allows Humans to Interact and Augment Physical World with Digital Data
Applications of Wearable Computing: Using Hand as a Keypad or Dial Pad
Intuitive Haptic Gaming Experiences
Surface Computers: Browsing of Internet on Any Surface Through Gestures
Source: MIT Media Group, 2010

“Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories
Zero Debts
Zero Defects
Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Breaches of Security
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Crime Rates

Overview of Next Top Mega Trends
SMART
Clouds: The
Next in Cloud
Computing
Women
Empowerment
and Women
CEOs
New Shores:
Emerging
Outsourcing
Hotspots
Future
Global 500
Companies
by Region
Future of
Consumer
Electronics
Power to
the Middle
Class
Beyond
BRIC: The
Next Game
Changers
New Trade
Zones
Wireless
Intelligence

Overview of Next Top Mega Trends (Contd...)
New
Business
Models
Future
Broadband
Applications
From Fat
to Fit: Health,
Wellness and
Well Being
Innovative
Technologies
of the
Future
Future of
Global
Power
Generation
Factory of the
Future:
SMART
and GREEN

Mega Trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them
It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities
These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade
Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities
It is important to build a healthy eco-system around your opportunity related to a mega trend as it can be a source of competitive advantage and raise barriers to entry (e.g. App store advantage vs Google)

From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That Impact Your Business And Markets
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
Macro
Micro
Example: Urbanisation, Satellites
Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact
Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City Cars, Car sharing,
New Technology Opportunities – Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio
Impact to Your Industry
Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts
Example: Three concepts of urbanisation will emerge: megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities
Example: People in future will need “personal mobility” not necessarily cars to commute to work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport including cars

Sarwant Singh
Partner & Practice Director, Automotive & Transportation + 44 207 915 7843
sarwant.singh@frost.com
Archana Amarnath
Team Leader + 44 207 915 7893
aamarnath@frost.com
For More Information Contact Us

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Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World

by Frost & Sullivan

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Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World Presentation Transcript