Investment Patterns in the Healthcare Industry - An Analysis

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    Investment Patterns in the Healthcare Industry - An Analysis - Presentation Transcript

    1. Investment Patterns in the Healthcare Industry - An Analysis Janani Sankaran, Industry Analyst Business and Financial Services, Healthcare October 13, 2009
    2. Detailed Table of Contents Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Investment Analysis- Introduction Investment Analysis- Introduction Number of Deals Analyzed Analysis of Various Investments by Time Analysis of Various Investments by Proceeds Analysis of Various Investments by Type of Funding Equity Markets- An Overview Equity Markets- An Overview Stock Markets- An Overview Analysis of Equity Investments by Time Period Analysis of Equity Investments by Type of Equity Analysis of Equity Investments by Deal Volume N68F-F1 2
    3. Detailed Table of Contents Debt Markets- An Overview Debt Markets- An Overview Analysis of Debt Investments by Time Analysis of Debt Investments by Geographies Analysis of Debt Investments by Volume and Proceeds Loan Markets- An Overview Loan Markets- An Overview Analysis of Loans by Time Analysis of Loans by Pricing Analysis of Loans by Proceeds Analysis of Loans by extent of Leverage Concluding Thoughts Concluding Thoughts Contact Information and About Frost & Sullivan Contact Information and About Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 3
    4. Focus Points Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Number of Deals Analyzed Analysis of Various Investments by Time Investment Analysis- Introduction Investment Analysis- Introduction Analysis of Various Investments by Proceeds Analysis of Various Investments by Type of Funding Equity Markets- An Overview Equity Markets- An Overview Stock Markets- An Overview Debt Markets- An Overview Analysis of Debt Investments by Time Debt Markets- An Overview Loan Markets- An Overview Loan Markets- An Overview Analysis of Loans by Time Conclusion Conclusion N68F-F1 4
    5. Significant Developments in the Healthcare Industry Healthcare Industry : Investment Analysis (World), 2008-2009 President Obama’s stimulus package Aging baby boomers and increase in chronic illnesses Falling construction costs in the Middle East Consolidation across Global Healthcare healthcare verticals Medical tourism in Asia Industry Artificial intelligence in Electronic health records healthcare Transition from patents to generic pharmaceuticals Source: Frost & Sullivan N68F-F1 5
    6. Number of Deals Analyzed Total Number of Deals Analyzed (469) Healthcare Equity (153) Healthcare Debt (101) Healthcare Loans (215) N68F-F1 6
    7. Healthcare Investments - Analysis by Time (World) 2008-2009 Healthcare Industry : Investment Analysis by time and by Volume (World), 2008-2009 100.0 90.0 31.6 30.1 27.9 80.0 43.0 Deal Volume (%) 47.4 70.0 60.0 14.6 17.9 25.0 7.5 50.0 9.2 12.6 19.5 40.0 15.0 10.5 30.0 30.9 23.2 20.0 27.6 23.4 22.4 10.0 14.7 14.7 8.1 11.2 10.5 0.0 1.5 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Quarter Biotechnology Healthcare Equipment Other Healthcare Providers Hospitals Pharmaceuticals Number of Deals over quarters (x) Segment Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Biotechnology 14 10 1 12 8 Healthcare equipment 22 34 10 25 17 Other Healthcare Providers 12 24 21 16 8 Hospitals 17 18 17 8 7 Pharmaceuticals 30 37 19 46 36 Total Deals 95 123 68 107 76 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. N68F-F1 Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
    8. Healthcare Investments- Analysis by Proceeds (World) 2008- 2009 Healthcare Industry : Investment Analysis by Proceeds and type of Investments (World), 2008-2009 Type of Funding Funding by Volume ($ Million) Equity <75.0 76.0-125.0 126.0-175.0 176.0-225.0 226.0-275.0 276.0-325.0 >326.0 Biotechnology 29 1 1 1 Healthcare equipment 33 3 3 1 Other healthcare services 13 1 1 1 Hospitals 6 1 1 Pharmaceuticals 49 2 2 2 2 Total equity 130 8 4 3 2 4 2 Debt <75.0 76.0-125.0 126.0-175.0 176.0-225.0 226.0-275.0 276.0-325.0 >326.0 Biotechnology 1 3 2 Healthcare equipment 2 4 4 1 3 2 Other healthcare services 1 4 3 2 1 Hospitals 4 1 1 2 Pharmaceuticals 7 9 6 12 6 2 18 Total debt 15 17 17 14 11 6 21 Loans <75.0 76.0-125.0 126.0-175.0 176.0-225.0 226.0-275.0 276.0-325.0 >326.0 Biotechnology 0 3 4 Healthcare equipment 17 8 3 24 Other healthcare services 11 5 5 7 3 2 21 Hospitals 16 8 9 2 6 10 Pharmaceuticals 17 3 1 1 1 6 22 Total loans 61 27 15 10 10 11 81 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. N68F-F1 Source: Frost & Sullivan 8
    9. Healthcare Investments- Analysis by Type of Funding (World) 2008-2009 Healthcare Industry : Investment Analysis by segments, type of funding and volume (World), 2008-2009 70 Equity volume Debt volume Loans volume 60,000.0 3% Equity amount Debt amount Loans amount 60 Segments 50,000.0 15% 22% 50 40,000.0 34% Value ($ Million) 44% Volume (x) 40 Deals by Volume 14% 30,000.0 30 Deals by Value 23% 20,000.0 20 26% 10,000.0 10 13% 6% 0 0.0 Biotechnology Healthcare equipment Other healthcare Biotechnology Healthcare Other healthcare Hospitals Pharmaceuticals services Hospitals Pharmaceuticals equipment services Volume (x) Value ($ Million) Segment Equity Debt Loans Equity Debt Loans Biotechnology 32 6 7 955.8 1,187.3 2,402.3 Healthcare equipment 40 16 52 1,544.4 2,759.1 55,177.4 Other Healthcare services 16 11 54 719.8 1,829.5 20,157.4 Hospitals 8 8 51 412.0 1,026.3 9,847.7 Pharmaceuticals 57 60 51 4,072.6 16,968.0 54,627.6 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. N68F-F1 Source: Frost & Sullivan 9
    10. Equity Deals N68F-F1 10
    11. Stock Markets - An Overview Healthcare Industry : Stock Markets- An Overview (World), 2005-2009 140.0 NASDAQ Biotechnology Index Especially in the recessionary times, the healthcare index is outperforming S&P Healthcare Index the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow 130.0 Amex Pharmaceutical Index Jones Industrial Average handsomely. Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 120.0 110.0 Indexed to 100 Biotech the standout industry 100.0 performer in terms of Sharpe's Ratio Investment Sharpe's Ratio for Various Indices from Jan 2005 Horizon NASDAQ Biotech S&P HC Amex Pharma DJ Industrial Average S&P 500 90.0 1 year (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.3) (0.4) 2 year (0.4) (0.6) (1.0) (0.4) (0.5) 3 year (0.6) (1.6) (2.6) (0.9) (1.1) 4 year (2.8) (5.7) (5.2) (4.3) (5.0) 80.0 Investment Sharpe's Ratio (%) for Various Indices from August 2002 Horizon NASDAQ Biotech S&P HC Amex Pharma DJ Industrial Average S&P 500 1 year 0.1 (0.3) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) 2 year 0.1 (0.4) (0.7) (0.1) (0.0) 70.0 3 year 0.1 (0.4) (1.0) 0.0 0.0 4 year 0.1 (0.5) (1.1) (0.0) 0.0 5 year 0.0 (0.8) (1.7) (0.2) (0.2) 6 year 0.2 (2.5) (3.8) (1.5) (1.4) 60.0 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 05 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jul 07 Jul 06 Jul 09 Jan 05 Jan 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Jul 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Jul 08 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar 06 Sep 08 May 07 May 09 May 08 May 05 May 06 Months Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. N68F-F1 Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
    12. Debt Deals N68F-F1 12
    13. Healthcare Debt Deals: Analysis by Time (World) 2008-2009 40 Healthcare Industry : Debt Analysis by time and volume (World), 2008-2009 35 There were significant borrowings in New legislations could cost Q1 2009 in the hope of an economic 30 more money to the hospital industry. recovery. As a percentage of the For every billion dollars a hospital 24 total deals, pharmaceuticals industry Deals (x) 25 17 borrows, it could cost $20 million has always dominated 20 to $30 million more in the future. the debt market. Q1 2009 witnessed a maximum of 24 deals, which was 15 12 6 greater than the total of all deals put 3 10 together over the three quarters in 2008. 3 3 8 5 6 2 2 5 1 1 0 The Libor-OIS spread 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 increased significantly Quarters during September 2008 and Biotechnology Healthcare equipment and supplies Other healthcare services Hospitals Pharmaceuticals it was at 311 basis points 4.5 during October 2008. Following 4.0 the declining interest rates and 3.5 with the stimulus package, 3.0 the Libor-OIS spread Index value 2.5 declined. Due to the narrowing LIBOR-OIS 2.0 spread, there is a likelihood of an 1.5 increase in debt offerings during 3 Month LIBOR 1.0 Q3 and Q4 2009. USD SWAP OIS 3 MONTH 0.5 Month 0.0 Jun 09 Jan 09 Nov 08 Feb 09 Mar 09 Jun 08 Apr 09 Jul 09 May 09 Dec 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Apr 08 Sep 08 May 08 Oct 08 N68F-F1 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan 13
    14. Loan Deals N68F-F1 14
    15. Healthcare Loan Deals: Analysis by Proceeds (World) 2008-2009 Some criterion for lending loans to corporations includes minimum years of operations, history of profits for the last two years with a 4.0 good credit rating, ability to satisfy various covenants, and With the effective fed interest at 0.21 percent in June 2009 3.5 and with hints of economic recovery and expected reduction satisfactory track and credit record with lenders. The interest rate in the average time taken for the banks to sanction would be based on credit worthiness of borrower, rating, risk 3.0 the loan, the loan off-take is likely to improve in Q3 and Q4 2009. Interest Rate (%) perception, tenure of loan, and other relevant factors. 2.5 Healthcare Industry : Loan Analysis by 2.0 proceeds and loan volume (World), 2008-2009 1.5 1.0 Effective Fed Interest Rate (%) >1000 8 3 6 1 7 0.5 0.0 Nov 08 May 08 May 09 Feb 08 Mar 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Oct 08 Feb 09 Dec 08 Jan 08 Jun 08 Jan 09 Jun 09 Apr 08 Apr 09 Jul 08 500-1000 5 12 2 1 2 11 Loan Amount ($ Million) Month 200-500 9 8 13 14 7 Levered Loans North America Unlevered Loans North America 50-200 23 8 17 1 16 Levered Loans Europe Unlevered Loans Europe Levered Loans APAC <50 4 7 2 28 Unlevered Loans APAC Loan Volume (x) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 N68F-F1 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan 15
    16. Concluding Thoughts N68F-F1 16
    17. Conclusion Some Interesting Facts • A recent study by Harvard University researchers found that the average out-of-pocket medical debt for those who filed for bankruptcy was $12,000. The study noted that 68 percent of those who filed for bankruptcy had health insurance. In addition, the study found that 50 percent of all bankruptcy filings were partly the result of medical expenses. In every 30 seconds in the U.S. someone files for bankruptcy in the aftermath of a serious health problem. • A new survey shows that more than 25 percent of Americans said that housing problems resulted from medical debt, including the inability to make rent or mortgage payments and the development of bad credit ratings. • About 1.5 million American families lose their homes to foreclosure every year due to unaffordable medical costs. Concluding Thoughts • Pharmaceutical, drug development, medical technologies, and other life sciences are considered to be attractive sectors for investment from 2010 to 2015. Historical high growth rates due to increases in health expenditure, growth in the ageing population coupled with greater incidence in chronic illness, and developments in technology are considered to be the driving factors behind the attractive investment options. • Niche areas such as percutaneous valve replacement, bioprosthetics with stem cell seeding on a matrix, and robotics are expected to be the future in the medical devices industry. • Policies toward Medicare and Medicaid are expected to have a significant impact on the general ‘health’ of the healthcare industry. N68F-F1 17
    18. Next Steps Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth: The Growth Excellence Model: Competitive Benchmarking & Growth Investing (November 3, 2009) (http://www.frost.com/growth) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) N68F-F1 18
    19. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by taking our survey. N68F-F1 19
    20. For Additional Information Johanna Haynes Lori Salazar-Malone Corporate Communications Sales Manager (210) 247-3870 Business & Financial Services johanna.haynes@frost.com (210) 247-2448 lsalazar-malone@frost.com Jennifer O’Grady Research Manager Business & Financial Services (214) 887-1818 jogrady@frost.com N68F-F1 20
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