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Global Helicopters Market Opportunities- Platforms, SiS & Systems
 

Global Helicopters Market Opportunities- Platforms, SiS & Systems

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Despite economic constraints, the helicopter industry will witness sunny spells with future procurement programs across emerging markets, significant aftermarket support growth opportunities among ...

Despite economic constraints, the helicopter industry will witness sunny spells with future procurement programs across emerging markets, significant aftermarket support growth opportunities among Western regions through platform life extension, and next-gen helicopters to reinvigorate end-users' appetites. This briefing will highlight new mission requirements for helicopters and focus on implications at the system level.

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  • West: fleet renewals, Oil and Gas demand- Heli expo + helitech 27 platforms sold+Bourget+ pending tenders across Europe and CanadaFacilitated by new business models
  • West: fleet renewals, Oil and Gas demand- Heli expo + helitech 27 platforms sold+Bourget+ pending tenders across Europe and CanadaFacilitated by new business models
  • Multi- operational/ cabin modularity, optimising platforms payload and versatility Avionics to increase mission awareness while less time time for prep and increase mission radius mission systems: plug and play approach, easy go and few training required
  • #2: Demand for manned/unmanned military fleet squadrons and police units will increasingly grow in the medium term to better response to urban warfare and MOOTWs#3:Global financial instability and emerging countries Tier 2 OEMs to challenge outsourcing business models established by Western regions, with less long-term agreements, reduced contract value and simplified supply-chain#4: OEMs to increase upfront visibility on key stakeholders of their development supply chain, with the intend aim to reduce time spent in controls, designs and approvals and to make product available sooner.

Global Helicopters Market Opportunities- Platforms, SiS & Systems Global Helicopters Market Opportunities- Platforms, SiS & Systems Presentation Transcript

  • Global Helicopters Market OpportunitiesPlatforms, SiS & Systems Flying Out Of Economic Brownouts Alix Leboulanger, Research Analyst Aerospace & Defense 30th October 2013 © 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  • Today’s Presenter Alix Leboulanger, Research Analyst, Aerospace and Defense Frost & Sullivan Industry Expertise : Within the Aerospace and Defense Team based in London, Alix Leboulanger is in charge of conducting extensive research on military and civil helicopters. She has authored several reports and projects focusing on :  Helicopter platforms, new procurements and on-going development programs  Helicopter aftermarket support, outsourcing evolution, training solutions, life extension programs and business models analysis  Helicopter airborne systems market demand and supply chain assessment Follow me on: @FrostADS http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Frost-Sullivans-Aerospace-Defence-Security4185579 2
  • Is there still an interest for helicopters? • Shutdown, Sequestration, and Slowdown Changing CONOPS doctrines Civilian air fleets evolution • However: • • • • A $517.25 billion cumulated market size across platforms, systems and aftermarket support between 2012 and 2022. Resilient workhorses with so far unmatched VTOL capacities Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 3
  • Agenda 1. What are helicopter growth potentials for military, commercial and parapublic end-users? 2. What are regional trends and challenges across the helicopter landscape? 3. Insights on end-users preference: What are their key priorities and how are they driving the helicopter system market? 4. Identifying opportunities across the value-chain, from new procurements, to upgrades, to aftermarket support to next gen systems 5. Is there still a future for helicopters? The rise of UAVs and OPVs Questions and Answers Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 4
  • Helicopter Growth Potentials For Military, Commercial And Parapublic End-users High Current renewal and upgrade cycles of platforms Military Helicopter Systems Helicopter systems to be a game changer Military and Parapublic platforms life extension programs Commercial Platforms increased modularity Drivers Restraints Commercial Systems Integration costs Allied Troops withdrawals Parapublic and military platforms availability and shrinking fleet a size High Decreasing purchase power from budget holders and increasing insurance rates Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 5
  • Regional Trends And ChallengesPlatforms New Platforms Procurements: Good News To Expect Despite Market Drop After 2018 • North America and Europe: • Despite shutdowns and cuts, Is it really all quiet from the Western side? • Almost 2,000 platforms to be procured across the commercial segment in North America and more than 1,500 in Europe. •Asia-Pacific: • 6,645 new helicopters are expected to be delivered by 2022. • 19% of them will be used for military multimissions roles, whereas 24% will be dedicated for business aviation and aerial works. • Central Asia: • 2,404 platforms will be procured, representing a total market size of $41.66 billion. • Military platforms will account for 66% of new procurements, with a specific focus on naval and combat platforms Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 6
  • Regional Trends And Challenges: Aftermarket Support The Quest For More Customized Business Models • Middle-East: • The $32.21 billion total market will offer almost as much opportunities across platform procurements than support: SIS to reach $13.46 billion mostly across parapublic and military segments •Asia-Pacific and Central Asia: • Platforms at their early stages of life cycle • Russia to offer US$ 4.69Bln of accessible SIS opportunities, 37.50 % of them across the commercial market between 2013 and 2022 • In Asia-Pacific, SIS opportunities to reach a total market size of US$14.88 Billion, with Commercial SIS accounting for $5.73 billion (2013-2022) •Latin America: • SIS opportunities to reach a total market size of $10.32 billion, with more than 50% across the military segment Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 7
  • Insights on end-users preference New Platforms Procurements By End-users: $ 303.40 Billion between 2012-2022 And their impact on airborne systems: a cumulated market size of $63.86 Billion Key Drivers Enhancing situational awareness and tackling CFITs Increasing mission rate and efficiency Looking at aircraft interoperability & reducing interferences Targeting the „Plug and Play‟ approach Budget constraints and ageing fleets are offering addressable opportunities for new airborne systems integration during midlife upgrades: a $14.72 billion aggregated market size Decreasing Platforms vulnerability Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
  • Competitive Positioning Total Market: US$ 287.86 bln CAGR: 2.91% 100% Apart from S-70i strong backlogs and FMS incentives attracting European Eastern and Middle Eastern, Sikorsky breakthrough civilian markets will be sustained by Chinese growing market demands 90% (2012-2022) 80% In the absence of further military orders, Eurocopter could suffer from Bell and AgustaWestland growing market shares across the civil light platform segment, such as AW 139 and Bell SLS To avoid too much reliance on North American military markets, Bell Helicopter should be advised to intensify its presence in Latin America and Middle East With a 870 backlogs in 2013, plus 100 platforms to be delivered per year to Russian Forces, Russian Helicopters witnesses the 70% As an emerging OEMs, Hindustan Aeronautics not only benefits from Indian defence modernisation plans and strong backlogs, but also Latin American and African countries have started to negotiate new orders 60% 50% 40% Leading OEMs 30% 20% Despite significant orders and interests for new AW169, AW198, AgustaW estland will have to reinforce its presence in Central Asia and AsiaPacific to pursue growth 10% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AgustaWestland Bell Helicopter Bell-Boeing Boeing Denel Eurocopter Kaman Hindustan Aeronautics Industries MD Helicopters NH Industries Russian Helicopters Sikorsky Others 9
  • Identifying Opportunities Across The Value-chain 1. Why transitioning economies are not more buoyant with commercial helicopters? Next Steps Main restraints to slowdown commercial helicopter market penetration in transitioning regions are the lack of infrastructures and skilled personnel shortage Developing e-media educational tools for platform and systems based maintenance training 3. Is this then only about maintenance and aftermarket opportunities? Next Steps Increasing SIS network and geographic proximity with end-users to reducing maintenance time constraints But establishing a new maintenance centre may be financially demanding... Commercial SIS will grow in emerging regions as it is a perceived as a tool to bridge the gap between domestic infrastructures and gaining market knowledge ...Is there a winning strategy for boosting SIS revenues? Offering training solutions with part tasks training devices and computer based scenarios for better future operational awareness (Disaster Relief Management, crowd monitoring etc.) Next Steps This is not only about reducing platform TCO, it is also about anticipating local end-users unmet needs, planning to modernize their fleet capabilities and to undertake new missions Such aftermarket network across the globe provides a better position to capture MoIs’ outsourcing demands in the next 10 years: Accessibility, Affordability and Responsiveness 4. 2. Next Steps 4. Once established, how this network can be leveraged? The financial constraints create interesting windows of opportunities for outsourcing safety and security services to commercial operators across Western regions. But in 2023,.. Is this the end of helicopters? 10
  • After UH-60 RASCAL tests, U.S. Army Research, Development and Engineering Command's Aviation and Missile Centre and Sikorsky working together on the Optionally Piloted Black Hawk-OPBH program, with terrain-aware autonomy first results in December 2012 Europe U.S. Is there still a future for helicopters? The rise of UAVs and OPVs Optionally Piloted Vehicle-OPV: Eurocopter integrates unmanned flight capabilities on a EC 145 demonstration vehicle and will carry the tests on further and heavier rotorcraft U.S. Unmanned Little Bird flying with and fully controlled by one Apache E Guardian 2012 First Operational Manned/Unmanned Squadron Fleet in the US Navy with Romeos and Fire Scouts U.S. Kiowa Warrior and Apache start to fly with MQ-8 Fire Scout and MQ-1 Grey Eagle UAVs and joint exercises with the US Army U.S. U.S. Russia Europe Russian Helicopters‟ projects Albatros and Roller expected to be launch in 2015 Kaman unmanned K-MAX multimission helicopter, with successful utility work achievements in Afghanistan from 2011 onward PZL Swidnik SA/AgustWestland introduce the SW-4 Solo Rotorcraft Unmanned Air System/Optionally Piloted Helicopter” (RUAS/OPH) prototype Boeing's Airborne Manned/Unmanned System Technology Demonstration : AH-6 Little Unmanned Little Bird-ULB 2004 2008 2011 2012 2013 Time What about other manned/unmanned developments from BRIC Countries? Russian military end-users are still hoping for a manned/unmanned Ka-226 version, whereas Chinese OEMs are working on similar programs, such as the U8 maritime helicopter, and others which could be derived from successful V750 experiences and a copy of the S-100 drone. 11 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Technical Developments U.S.
  • Strategic Recommendations Technology & Anticipating NextGens: Helicopter and systems OEMs to collaborate more closely as systems features will drastically change in the future with the appearance of fixed-wing helicopters and all-electric rotorcraft with new battery and speed challenges. Product & Market Positioning: Parapublic end users to be leading drivers for two-way data-link use between helicopters and airborne-controlled UAVs with the proliferation of civilian drones. Managing Perception & Competition: Western systems OEMs to maintain their market dominance for the foreseeable future due to their systems‟ legacy and technical heritage, whereas systems manufactured by certain emerging OEMs are suffering from a lack of trust in their supposed efficiency Supply-chain Monitoring & Transparency Standards: The proliferation of components, subparts, micro-processors suppliers, with a trend towards low-cost suppliers, impact negatively platforms and systems supply chain. Increasing controls to prevent from counterfeiting issues and performed maintenance track record lists are set to become best practices. 12
  • Next Steps Develop Your Visionary and Innovative Skills Growth Partnership Service Share your growth thought leadership and ideas or join our GIL Global Community Join our GIL Community Newsletter Keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities 13
  • Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation. 14
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  • For Additional Information Joanna Lewandowska Corporate Communications Aerospace, Defence & Security +48 (0) 22 481 62 20 Joanna.Lewandowska@frost.com Alix Leboulanger Research Analyst Aerospace, Defence & Security +44 (0) 207 3438316 Alix.Leboulanger@frost.com Aman Pannu Research Manager Aerospace, Defence & Security +44 (0) 20 7343 8361 Aman.Pannu@frost.com Andrew Thorndyke European Sales Director Aerospace, Defence & Security +44 (0)1865 398645 Andrew.Thorndyke@frost.com 16