Global Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Systems Market Clear Signs of Growth in Demand for Automated and Automatic Transmissions Sandeep Kar- Global Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research May, 2010
Global Commercial Truck Production: Polarization of Truck Classes Implies Growth in LCV and HCV Segments 17.89 Million CV 23.49 Million CV Heavy CV 15.4% Medium CV 4.3% Light CV 80.3% Heavy CV 16.9% Medium CV 7.1% Light CV 76.0% 2008 2020 HCV 1.5% LCV 2.8% MCV 1.9% Navistar ProStar Scania R-Series Mercedes Actros Ford Connect Nissan Atlas TATA ACE Hino 185
Case in Point: Chinese and Indian CV Markets Show Strong Polarization Trends Provinces Taking the Policy of Charge-by-Weight (China), 2008 LDT, MDT, HDT Truck Sales Ratios: (China), 2008-2015 Rising Volume of Containerized Freight (India), 2008-2015 Rising Demand for Heavy Trucks- Volvo’s Market Share Growth (India), 18.3% 21.0% 26.5% 28.1% 15.1% 13.8% 12.9% 10.8% 66.6% 65.2% 60.6% 61.1% 60.6% 9.3% 30.1% Year 100 80 60 40 20 0 Market Share (%) Heilongjiang Jilin Liaoning Hainan Yunnan Guizhou Sichuan Qinghai Ningxia Shanxi Henan Shandong Jiangsu Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Hunan Hubei Hebei Tianjin Shanxi Chongqing Neimenggu Guangxi Gansu
In Europe the LCV Segment is Expected to Experience a CAGR of 2.4 Percent (2008-2013) LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines (55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and Featuring Stepped MTs will Prevail..DCT, ATs will Gain Penetration
Demand Analysis: Trucks by Transmission Type (North America), Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009) New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009) New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 – 2015)
Demand for automatic and automated transmissions for Class 6-8 trucks is forecast to increase until 2015 because they are easier to operate and are more fuel efficient
In 2015, automatics/automated will represent almost 35% of new truck sales, rising from 22% in 2008.
In 2008, Class 8 production trucks had the highest concentration of automated manual transmissions (11%).
Both are more costly than manuals to maintain (require more fluid), repair, reman/rebuild (much more complex).
Automatics cost 20 to 30% more than manuals. Comparatively, automated manuals are cheaper and cost 10-15% more than manuals.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan
End User Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Automated/Automatic Transmissions as Solutions Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart. Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most important to your fleet from the following list below? Automated/Automatic Trannies Offer Solutions But Pose Challenges Too!! Solutions Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Maintenance,, Residual Value Challenges Lifecycle Costs, Weight Penalty, Access to Support Infrastructure Source: Frost & Sullivan
Future Intentions of Automatic/Automated Transmissions Technologies Among Fleet Managers in U.S. 87% are familiar with Automatic Transmission. 64% are familiar with Automated Transmission. Q: How likely are you to consider automatic/automated transmissions over manual transmissions in future new truck purchases? Source: Frost & Sullivan Rising Awareness and Demand for Automatic and Automated Transmissions
Fuel Efficiency Enhancement of Trucks Through A Combination of Modifications and Regulatory Support Source: Frost & Sullivan 2007 2015 Hybrid Powertrain Electronic Controls and Modulation Class 6 - 8 Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement Automated/ Automatic Transmission Advanced Turbocharger Smaller Engine, Camless Engine Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks Auxiliary Power Unit Advanced Thermal Management Lightweight Structural and Body Materials Air - Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking Lighter Fuel Tank Vehicle Geometry Aerodynamic Modifications Fuel Injection, Valve Actuation Improvements Low Resistance Tires Reduced Engine Friction Reduced Trailer Gap Higher Loads Lesser Congestion Optimum Speed Other Design Modifications Regulatory Support Low - viscosity Lubricants Hybrid Powertrain Electronic Controls and Modulation Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement Automated/ Automatic Transmission Advanced Turbocharger Smaller Engine, Camless Engine Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks Auxiliary Power Unit Advanced Thermal Management Lightweight Structural and Body Materials Air - Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking Lighter Fuel Tank Vehicle Geometry Aerodynamic Modifications Fuel Injection, Valve Actuation Improvements Low Resistance Tires Reduced Engine Friction Reduced Trailer Gap Higher Loads Lesser Congestion Optimum Speed Other Design Modifications Regulatory Support Low - viscosity Lubricants
Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market= Smart Business At Play North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Production Forecast (North America & Europe), 2006 - 2016 CAGR 90.9 % CAGR 99.6 % North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Market Attractiveness of Commercial Hybrid Systems (North America & Europe), 2009-2016 Market attractiveness for hybrid vehicles is highest in the MCV, HCV and Bus segments Least Pressure on Existing Infrastructure Will Continue Drawing Governments, Truckmakers and Customers Towards Hybrid CVs in EU and NA in New Decade
Class 6-8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8 Percent of Total Truck Production by 2015, New revenue Streams for Automated/Automatic Transmission Suppliers Hybridization of North American Commercial Trucks (Class 6-8) : Production Volumes and Market Shares of Major OEMs (2008-2015), Hybrid Power Source (2009-2012) Hybrid Production 39,400 2008 2015 Hybrid Production 600 Navistar 62% Navistar 39% Daimler 16% Volvo/Mack-11% PACCAR 23% PACCAR 27% Daimler-11% CAGR (2008-2015)=80.8% Electric Hybrid Hydraulic Hybrid 8% of Truck Production
Private fleets (Coca-Cola, UPS, FedEx, Utilities) driving the first wave of Class 6-7 truck adoption
Class 8 long-haul emerging as holy-grail for volume growth
Hydraulic hybrid production to begin in 2010 (Peterbilt Class 8, FCCC hydraulic)
Key Transmission Trends and Takeaways: Commercial Vehicles Driver Shortage Declining Price and Rising Fuel Efficiency of Auto-Trannies Rising Hybrid Truck Demand Rising Demand and Penetration in BRIC Countries Increasing Vocational Activity Favourable Regulatory Environment Rising Fleet Manager Awareness and Preference Upfront and Lifecycle Cost Barriers- Developed and Emerging Markets
Questions? Sandeep Kar Global Program Manager- Commercial Vehicles Research Toronto, Canada Direct: 416.490.7796 Fax: 416.490.1533 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org