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GIL 2013: Latin America - Chemicals, Materials & Food Track: 360 Degree Industry Perspective
 

GIL 2013: Latin America - Chemicals, Materials & Food Track: 360 Degree Industry Perspective

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  • Apresentação / AgradecimentoGancho com a apresentação da manhã
  • Principais setores da região em 2020 e desafios para o crescimento:Alto custo de MP (gás e nafta mais caros que nos EUA)Custo do investimento Brasil 25% maior que na ÁsiaTurning point da ind química:Redução do preço da energia e do gásDesoneração de MPs e de investimentosIncentivos do gov para plantas piloto – oportunidade em renováveis
  • Aqui nós vamos destacar 2 implicações diretas da Megatendencia de Urbanização na AL: crescimento acelerado nas áreas de construção civil e de água e saneamento.Com exceção da Argentina, onde muito projetos no setor privado foram desacelerados ou cancelados, observa-se uma taxa de crescimento bastante atrativa no setor da construções em diversos países da região. No Brasil, além dos grandes eventos e da falta de infraestrutura que irá fazer com que o setor cresça a uma taxa de 6.5% até 2020, nós temos o fator do déficit habitacional. Até 2020, nós prevemos que devem ser construídos mais de 2.1 bilhões de m2 para suprir uma demanda de 27 milhões de novos moradores em áreas urbanas. No Brasil, um grande desafio é a falta de mão-de-obra especializada, gerando inflacionamento dos salários no setor e ainda perdas durante obras, devido a falta de preparo do profissional. Outro ponto importante, é que o setor de construção vem buscando aprimorar sua oferta de produtos e soluções para o mercado, principalmente na área de aditivos de concreto e de adesivos. Porém, a avaliação de produtos baseada no preço unitário restringe a diversificação e customização de produtos na área da construção. Peru:No Peru, o setor de construção civil vem sendo fortemente impulsionado pela ascenção da classe média e pelo acesso facilitado ao crédito. Tanto o governo quanto instituições privadas desenvolveram linhas de crédito que facilitaram o acesso à moradia própria. Em 2010, o crescimento da ind de construção no Peru chegou a ultrapassar os 17%.Algo notável no boom da construção civil no Peru é a crescente demanda por apartamentos de médio e alto padrão. Predominan los departamentos de 3 ambientes cuya superficie mínima según los códigos de edificación debe ser mínimo de 100m2 y máximo de 180m2.Pero lo que opera como dinamizador del crecimiento de la construcción es el número de proyectos habitacionales destinados principalmente a la clase media baja y baja que se está incrementando de manera muy importante, gracias a la actuación de programas de vivienda populares como Mi Vivienda, Techo Propio, entre otros.Colombia:No caso da Colombia, o crescimento do setor de construção segue impulsionadopelo Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento 2010-2014, queincluiprojetos de infraestrutura, mobilidade e no setor de o&G (meta é aumentar a produção de petróleoem 40% nospróximos 5 anos). O planoinclui, por ex, investimentos de $ 22 B paraconstrução e manutenção de 7000 km de rodovias. Incentivos para participação do setor privados nas obras também são um driver importante para o setor. Informações boom da construção no Peru:http://econoblognet.blogspot.com.br/2012/01/el-boom-de-la-industria-de-la.htmlhttp://gestion.pe/noticia/257612/construccion-sostendra-crecimiento-peruntTypes/common/records/mostrarDocumento/?doc=4388004
  • México: investimentosacima de $ 10 bilhõesaté 2020, com foco no setorprivado e tratamento de efluentesindustriais.Peru: Investimentos na construção de 16 plantas de tratamento de esgotoBrazil: No Brasil, considerando áreas urbanas e rurais, 84% da água é tratada e menos de 50% do esgoto. Existe uma meta de universalização do tratamento de água e esgoto, que deve atingir mais de 95% das áreas até 2020. Porém, analisando o ritmo dos investimentos e o nível de burocracia envolvendo os processos de melhoria, a meta dificilmente será atingida. Além disso, o tratamento de água e esgoto ainda é muito concentrado nas grandes cidades, sendo que as pequenas ainda tem um déficit muito grande.No Brasil, o consumo per capita de águaaumentou 8% em 2012, superando 160 litros/dia.Ou seja, nota-se que o consumo aumenta num ritmo superior ao do crescimento populacional
  • A redução do trabalho doméstico já é um fato no Brasil e vem se acentuando cada vez mais, principalmente devido ao aumento no nível de renda das classes D e E e também ao maior acesso à escolaridade. Esse fato, associado ao maior número de mulheres no mercado de trabalho levará a uma jornada tripla para as mulheres ainda mais pesada. A indústria de home and personal care terá sucesso se trabalhar nesse contexto em um ponto – Conveniência e praticidade.Os produtos devem ser fáceis de aplicar, e muito segmentados, para aplicações específicas. Produtos concentrados serão preferidos, devido à falta de espaço e maior consciencia ambiental das mulheres que cuidarão de suas próprias casas. Desperdício não será tolerado. Na área de alimentos, os congelados com alto teor de gordura saturada terão de dar espaço a produtos saudáveis, com embalagens convenientes, que facilitem armazenagem e conservação do produto. Smart packaging será uma tendência forte para controle da data de validade, inclusive com dispositivos que se conectem a aplicativos em samrtphones e com a geladeira, para montagem automática de uma lista de compras.
  • The rise of the middle class consumption power coupled with abundant credit brought a boom on retail revamping sales of foods, beverages, electronics, white goods, automobiles and others. One of the sectors to be driven by this demand in engineering polymers: Consumo de appliances e eletronicos (plásticos) / Números de plásticos de engenharia – BR, COL, MXA chamada classe média irá crescer 7% até 2020, impulsionando o consumo de automóveis e eletrônicos na AL. Um dos segmentos de mercado a ser impulsionado por essa MT é o de plásticos de engenharia, que deve alcançar 2.7 B $ em 2020.
  • The modern era is witnessing a drastic change in the lifestyle of people. There is a sharp increase in the incidence of lifestyle based disorders like diabetes and cardiovascular disorders than common cold and flu. Lately in the past two decades the consumers have become more health conscious and are resorting to preventive measures rather than reactionary ones. Functional foods and beverages play a major role in this segment, promoting the concept of healthiness-on-the-go. These functional foods and beverages include health ingredients which have proven to promote general health and wellbeing by preventing certain diseases.Some health ingredients, in addition to the traditionally available vitamins and minerals are amino acids, antioxidants, enzymes, fibres, proteins, probiotics, prebiotics, phytosterols and polyphenols. These ingredients are positioned for a heart health, cognitive health, bone and joint health, digestive health and weight management. Consumers expect healthy food to taste good. Taste enhancers are fast developing in the stevia market which is a potential replacement to synthetic sweeteners which are not as healthy as the natural ones. With increasing awareness and demand for natural health ingredients, the market is clearly transforming from a pharmaceutical to a nutraceutical trend, where in consumption of health ingredients will become a way of life. Increasing consumer spends and awareness on health ingredients is further set to drive this market.
  • Apresentação / AgradecimentoGancho com a apresentação da manhã

GIL 2013: Latin America - Chemicals, Materials & Food Track: 360 Degree Industry Perspective GIL 2013: Latin America - Chemicals, Materials & Food Track: 360 Degree Industry Perspective Presentation Transcript

  • 360 Degree Industry PerspectiveChemicals, Materials & Food Industry Track GIL 2013: Latin America The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership 31 January 2013 Sao Paulo, Brazil Alessandra Lancellotti, Business Unit Leader
  • Track Agenda1. The LATAM Chemical industry Outlook and its Growth Challenges2. Mega Trends – The impact in Latin America  Urbanization  Social Trends  Infrastructure Development  Health, Wellness and Well-being3. Growth Success Story – Dow Chemical4. Panel Discussion – Are chemical companies prepared to grow in Latin America? 2
  • Track Agenda1. The LATAM Chemical industry Outlook and its Growth Challenges2. Mega Trends – The impact in Latin America  Urbanization  Social Trends  Infrastructure Development  Health, Wellness and Well-being3. Growth Success Story – Dow Chemical4. Panel Discussion – Are chemical companies prepared to grow in Latin America? 3
  • The Latin America Chemical Industry is expected to grow by 6.0% from 2012 to2020, being Brazil and Colombia the fastest growing countries in the region Chemical Industry in Latin America: 2012 x 2020 (billion US dollars) 17.0 55.2 10.5 5.9% 35.0 CAGR 6.2% CAGR 2012 2020 2012 2020 260.0 153.0 6.9% CAGR 2012 2020 The LA chemical industry is expected to grow from US$ 294 33.2 23.0 billion to US$ 466 billion in the 2012–2020 period. 4.7% CAGR 2012 2020 4
  • Latam Chemical Industry Growth EnginesKey Sectors in 2020 and Growth Challenges Challenges High cost of raw materials – energy, gas, naphtha $ 2.7 B $ 12.1 B High investment costs – about 25% higher compared to Asia $ 17.6 B Low level of public incentives to the establishment of pilot plants – crucial to boost opportunities in the renewables sector $ 3.8 B $ 2.0 B Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 5
  • Track Agenda1. The LATAM Chemical industry Outlook and its Growth Challenges2. Mega Trends – The impact in Latin America  Urbanization  Social Trends  Infrastructure Development  Health, Wellness and Well-being3. Growth Success Story – Dow Chemical4. Panel Discussion – Are chemical companies prepared to grow in Latin America? 6
  • Urbanization 7
  • Mega Cities: By 2020, it is expected that 83.5% of the population (about500 million people) in Latin America will be living in urban areas Guadalajara Population Bogota 2020: Population 5.3 million Mexico City 2020: Population 10.2 million 2020: 22.9 million Belo Rio de Horizonte Janeiro Population Population 2020: 2020: Lima 6.3 million 12.9 million Population 2020: 10.4 million Sao Paulo Population People per Square 2020: Kilometre 22.0 million Santiago Highly Urban Countries More than 200 people Population BuenosMedium-High Urban Countries 100 – 200 people 2020: Aires 6.4 million Population Mega Cities (>8 million Medium Urban Countries 50 – 100 people 2020: population)Low-Medium Urban Countries 10 – 50 people 14.4 million Emerging Mega Cities Low Urban Countries Less than 10 people (4-8 million population) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics, Frost & Sullivan and other regional and country level statistics bureau 8
  • Macro to Micro Implications in the Civil Construction Industry:Construction sector is likely to grow at rates above 6% by 2020 in countries like Braziland Peru Mexico Mexico’s civil construction industry Brazil is likely to grow at an annual rate of 6% FIFA World Cup 2014 and the 10 skyscrapers standing over Olympic Games 2016 will boost the 200m are planned or already under civil construction industry which will construction grow at an annual average of 6.5% 2.1 billion sq. meters need to be built in order to meet future Colombia demands for 27.7 million new dwellers Colombia’s civil construction industry is likely to grow at an annual rate of 5.8% Argentina Peru Argentina’s civil construction Peru’s civil construction industry is industry is likely to grow at an likely to grow at an annual average annual rate of 4.0% rate of 9.7% Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 9
  • Macro to Micro Implications in the Water & Sanitation Market:Investments in this area are expected to reach $75.5 billion by 2020 Brazil $25.0 billion investment in the country by 2020 Mexico Rio de Janeiro – From 56% to 80% of sewage treatment >$10.0 billion Investment in the country by 2020 Sao Paulo – 100% Universalization in 2020 for urban areas 6.5% CAGR in industrial water 5.1% CAGR in municipal water treatment chemicals by 2020 treatment chemicals by 2020 Peru $1.7 billion Investment in Lima by 2014 $370 million – waste water treatment (16 plants) and sewage Argentina $9.5 billion Investment in Buenos Aires by 2020 Buenos Aires - 100% universalization by 2015Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Sewage: from 59% to 95% coverage by 2020 10
  • Social Trends 11
  • “She-conomy”: Women to Account for 50.0% of Latin AmericanWorking Population and 28.0% of Directorship Positions in 2020 Forecast Percent of Working Female Women Empowerment, Latin America, Population, Latin America, 2011–2020 2011 and 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 145 Million Total Female Decision Makers in 113 Million 21.4 29.2 Public and Private Sectors (%) 295 Million 322 Million Women Professional, Scientists and 48.8 50.3 Intellectual (%) Average income Gap of Latin American Urban Women versus 17 11.2 Men (%) Percentage of Parliament Seats Total Female Population Female Working Population 23.0 31.1 Occupied by Women (%) Women Bank Account Holders 103.3 146.4 (Million) Source: CEPALSTAT; CELADE; Frost & Sullivan analysis. 12
  • Women consumption is directly related to their empowerment, driving sectors such as home and personal care, food and packaging Personal Care • $ 120.0 B market in 2020 • Renewable-sourced raw materials • Surfactants market expected to reach $ 2.0 billion by 2020 in Brazil Convenience • Multifunctional formulations • DIY Domestic work is reducing especially in Brazil, driving Home Care the development of • $ 35.0 B market in 2020 practical and easy-to-use • Liquid detergents formulations home care products. 13
  • The Middle Bulge: Middle Class Individuals to Account for 69% of Latin America’s Population in 2020 Income Pyramid, Latin America, 2010 and 2020 2011 2020 Income Per Annum 577 million Individuals 631 million Individuals 6.6% 6.8% Rich (43) (38) $100,000 10.8% Upper Middle 11.1% (62) Class (70) $60,000 17.9% Middle Class 24.2% (103) (153) $32,000 Lower Middle 31.6% 32.6% (188) Class (200) $14,600 Poverty 19.2% 15.5% (111) Poor (98) Line $3,650 12.9% Below 10.7% (74) Poverty (68) LineNote: Figures in brackets are millions of individuals.Poverty Line based on ECLAC definition of poverty - $2.5 US dollars per person per day in market prices Source: IADB, ECLAC, Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 14
  • Infrastructure Development 15
  • Airport Infrastructure: The major airport projects in Latin America are likely to boostthe flow of people between countries, and increase commercial trade with investments ofabout $401.0 billion by 2020 Riviera Maya Airport $250 million (Mexico) Viracopos Airport $6.9 billion 90 million passengers by 2042 (Brazil) Brasilia Airport $1.9 billion Chinchero Airport 50 million (Cusco) passengers by $389 million 2037 (Peru) (Brazil) Guarulhos (São Silvio Pettirossi & Paulo) Airport Guarani Airport $3.8 billion Airport (Luque) 52 million $100 million passengers by (Paraguay) 2032 (Brazil) Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis 16
  • The huge infrastructure gap present in Latin America is expected to be reduced in the next 5 years at least in Brazil, due to the Megaevents Impact of World Cup on the Chemicals and Materials Industry: Investment by Investments in Infrastructure as a % Area, Brazil, 2011–2014 of GDP - average 2000-2011 8.7% Mobility Airports 41.3% 26.6% 4.7% 1.8% Arenas China India Latin America Hotels 24.6% 7.5% Total World Cup Investment in Construction = $14.11 Billion Source: Federal Government, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 17
  • Cement and Plastics are the key components in the World Cup and Olympic Games works investments in Brazil by 2016 Chemicals and Materials Industry: Percentage of Investment by Select Chemicals, Brazil, 2011–2016 Adhesives Plastics 5.0% and Sealants 22.2% Paints and Coatings 14.0% Cement 54.1% 4.7% Concrete Admixtures Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 18
  • Health, Wellness, and Well-BeingNAFD-MT 19
  • The need for a change in the consumer behavior will enable the appearance of new niche markets within the Food Industry The rising of middle class and increasing urbanization is leading to higher obesity rates in Latin America. Considering the current growth rate, Brazil will present in 2020 the same level of obesity presented by the US today (34%) Obesity rate in Latin America countries (2010) Peru: Colombia: Bolivia: Brazil: Honduras: From Fat to Fit… 15% 16% 18% 18% 19% Weight management ingredients (fat burners, satiety Chile: Argentina: Venezuela: Paraguay: Mexico: ingredients, metabolism 25% 26% 28% 32% 33% regulators) will grow at a 7.5% CAGR by 2020Note: Obesity percentage is defined in the population older Sources: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)than 15 and with a BMI (body mass index) greater than 30 / World Health Organization (WHO) / International Obesity Taskforce 20
  • The functional food and beverages market will value US$ 21B in 2020 in Latin America – 13% of the global market Change in lifestyle and increasing of disorders such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases create opportunities for: stevia, amino acids, antioxidants, enzymes, fibers, proteins, probiotics, prebiotics, phytosterols and polyphenols. Average Price, Natural X Synthetic Food Ingredients 400.0% 352.0% 350.0% 300.0% 276.5% • Ingredients for functional beverage 250.0% 218.1% are the most promising category: 200.0% healthiness-on-the-go concept 150.0% 100.0% NA EU BR Consumption of health ingredients and nutricosmetics will become a way of life 21
  • Track Agenda 1. The LATAM Chemical industry Outlook and its Growth Challenges 2. Mega Trends – The impact in Latin America  Urbanization  Social Trends  Infrastructure Development  Health, Wellness and Well-being 3. Growth Success Story – Dow Chemical 4. Panel Discussion – Are Latam chemical companies prepared for the future?NAFD-MT 22
  • Track Agenda 1. The LATAM Chemical industry Outlook and its Growth Challenges 2. Mega Trends – The impact in Latin America  Urbanization  Social Trends  Infrastructure Development  Health, Wellness and Well-being 3. Growth Success Story – Dow Chemical 4. Panel Discussion – Are chemical companies prepared to grow in Latin America?NAFD-MT 23
  • Panel DiscussionChemicals, Materials & Food Industry Track GIL 2013: Latin America The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership