GIL 2014 Latin America - Mega Trends in Latin America

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  • Current interconnection situation
  • According to World Bank, for every 10 % increase in broadband penetration, there is an increase in economic growth by 1.3%
  • GIL 2014 Latin America - Mega Trends in Latin America

    1. 1. Mega Trends In Latin America A Future Outlook for the ―Next-Generation‖ Continent NAFD-MT 1
    2. 2. Why Mega Trends? NAFD-MT 2
    3. 3. Definition of Mega Trends Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. NAFD-MT 3
    4. 4. Mega Trend Matrix Understanding Implications of Key Mega Trends within the Latin American Economy High Mega Trend Matrix, Latin America, 2025 Degree of Impact on Latin American Economy Connectivity and Convergence Future Economic Growth Urbanization Generation Y Smart is the New Green Infrastructure Development The Middle Bulge Rise of Multilatinas Migration Health, Wellness, and Well-Being Innovating to Zero Renewable Power Generation New Business Model Business Process Outsourcing Low Social Programs Low Degree of Certainty Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity within each Mega Trend. The Mega Trends have been plotted according to quantitative and qualitative reasoning. NAFD-MT High Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 4
    5. 5. Mega Cities By 2025, it is Expected that 85.7% of the Population (566.5 million people) in Latin America Will Be Living in Urban Areas. Mega Cities and Emerging Mega Cities, Latin America, 2025 Bogota Population 2025: 11.4 Million GDP 2025: $298.0 Billion Guadalajara Population 2025: 5.7 Million Mexico City Population 2025: 24.6 Million GDP 2025: $713.5 Billion Belo Horizonte Lima Population 2025: 11.5 Million Population 2025: 6.6 Million Rio de Janeiro Population 2025: 13.6 Million GDP 2025: $327.1 Billion Sao Paulo People per Square Kilometre Highly Urban Countries More than 200 people Medium-high Urban Countries 100 – 200 people Medium Urban Countries 50–100 people Low-medium Urban Countries 10–50 people Low Urban Countries Less than 10 people Santiago Population 2025: 7.1 Million Buenos Aires Population 2025: 15.5 Million GDP 2025: $327.1 Billion Population 2025: 23.2 Million GDP 2025: $643.9 Billion Mega Cities in 2025 Emerging Mega Cities (4-8 Million population in 2025) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistics; other regional and country level statistics bureaus; and Frost & Sullivan analysis. NAFD-MT 5
    6. 6. Energy Infrastructure—Power Generation Latin America Power Generation Capacity Grows at High Rates as a result of General Infrastructure Requirements. Brazil is Investing Over $110 Billion until 2020. Power Generation Capacity Expansion, Latin America, 2011–2020 Mexico Installed Capacity (MW) Country 23% 2010 2020 112,400 141,000 Mexico 60,400 74,400 Argentina 28,400 33,000 Colombia 13,300 17,000 Top Countries to Watch 18,000 2010-2020 Generation Capacity Expansion 11,600 Capacity to be Added by 2020 Colombia Brazil Chile Peru 13,100 6,200 28% Brazil Peru 25% 86% Argentina Chile Large hydroelectric power plants, gas-fueled units, and wind generation are the region’s focus to increase power generation capacity. 20% 37% Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis NAFD-MT 6
    7. 7. Telecom Infrastructure Investments are Expected to Drive Mobile Penetration (M2M included) in Latin America from 91% in 2009 to more than 200% in 2020, and Fixed Broadband from 7% to 65%. 2010 Forecast Telecom Infrastructure Investments, Global, 2010–2020 2020 North America 140% 200% 90% 150% 100% Europe 200% 65% 90% Asia 68% 56% 56% 11% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration 200% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration 90% 112% Africa Latin America 91% 82% 41% 83% Oceania 27% 57% 65% 4% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration 7% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Broadband penetration will increase until 2020, generating a 7.1% GDP increase in Latin America. Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Source: 2009 telecommunications statistics from ITU 2020 projections from Frost & Sullivan analysis. NAFD-MT 7
    8. 8. The Middle Bulge Middle Class Individuals to Account for 69% of Latin America’s Population (461 Million) in 2025. Percent of Population by Income, Latin America, 2011 and 2025 2011 Income Per Annum 2025 576.9 Million Individuals 661.0 Million Individuals 38 6.6% Rich 46 6.9% 62 10.8% Upper Middle Class 75 11.3% 103 17.9% Middle Class 180 27.2% 188 32.6% Lower Middle Class 206 31.1% 111 19.2% Poor 91 13.8% 74 12.9% Below Poverty Line U.S. Dollars $ $100,000 $60,000 $32,000 $14,600 Poverty Line $3,650 64 9.7% Middle class in Latin America Note: Absolut values represent millions of individuals. Poverty Line based on ECLAC definition of poverty - $2.5 U.S. dollars per person per day in market prices NAFD-MT Source: IADB, ECLAC, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
    9. 9. Break Out Session NAFD-MT 9
    10. 10. From Macro to Micro How to Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Macro Micro Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs Mega Trend Impact on Future Product/ Technology Sub Trend Infrastructure growth, Gen Y trends, Renewable Energy, Etc.. Impact to Your Industry Challenge / opportunity related to the Mega Trend and Sub Trends After the event: what will it mean for your company? New product, service or solution that addresses the challenge BONUS: Can you partner with someone at your table? Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. NAFD-MT P5DB-MT 10
    11. 11. Today’s Session Mega Trends and Sub Trends Gen Y Transformation away from private ownership of automobiles Comfort level with technology, integration Challenge Increase automobile sales for use by the next generation Solutions: More integrated, personalized experience Car-sharing and related business models Leverage “green” preferences Small electric vehicles that can be used like current bike sharing programs Fully integrated and traceable by mobile apps Data can be given back to the city or area businesses for infrastructure management and targeted advertising NAFD-MT P5DB-MT 11

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