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GIL 2014 Latin America - Disrupt, Collapse and Transform

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  • First we will tackle Disruption…Think if disruption like this..we are talking about a technology, product, service or even regulations etc that would cause a temporary or permanent disruption to a market place by altering the way that place operates..Let us look
  • First, understand that as far as disruptive technologies go there is an awful lot of activity. The challenge here for you, as strategy and CI practitioners is to figure out which of these will disrupt your business, and by how much…For example: HC companies are faced with dramatic changes in the materials space…a re-focus on neutraceuticals, a changing device landscape in a 342Bn Global business…so who is disrupting this? Wireless tech, Googles, Facebooks of this world…
  • Following on from that trend is this one that may be a part destroyer to because there is no doubt this will collapse many industries, perhaps some of the finance industry participants. But it’s biggest influence is the rise of consumer owned and operated business models. Driven by the web and facilitated by companies such as Alibaba, we have seen a dramatic trending rise in the role and influence of C2C purchasing..collaborative buying that eliminates the middle man, C2C lending environments to destroy traditional banking…it really is quite fascinating..
  • Dave talks here
  • Now let us discuss Collapse. When we think of collapse we are thinking of issues that will force an industry to totally rethink what it does and how it does it. In many cases this may ultimately mean the total failure of the industry to survive. These competitive forces in many ways are the most destructuve to you and your business…find these, and you find yourself a seat at the table..
  • Today we think of these industries as leading, as dominant but I pause to think whether that is indeed true. Today we live in a dominant Oil based environment, traditional petroleum. Many of us thought that Renewables, that is to say solar, wind, water based energy would begin to dominate but we know that is not the case now, especially with volatility in the storage environment. So the Collapser here is actually Gas. Gas is redifing the energy environment…and as we proceed to 2025 we can see here tht Gas is dominant followed by a very small Oil and a slightly larger Renewable presence..Similarly in the music space we think today that Apple redifinedit..and it did, wonderfully..but not sustainably. The space as we move forwards it largely going to be defined by on demand streaming, a lack of ownership, and more hyper needs of access any time. Storage being pushed to the cloud certainly is aiding the likes of Spotify add millions of members.Finally today we think of the auto industry and we think of Ford, GM etc..that is not going to be the case in 10 years or so. Increasingly vehicle technology is shifting away from a traditional player and more to the likes of Google, TRW, Facebook and more who are showing they understand the consumers needs on board the vehicle better than many OEM’s.
  • For me though, one of the most profound collapsers will be the rise of the virtual world. Killing many industries, reshaping others. Take education for example where our children will be taught by virtual teachers, creating a consistent information platform. You will be spending on average 48 hours of every month immersed in a virtual world activity, being exposed to marketing, services and products to enhance your real world environment. Dave….
  • So well documented today are the case leading examples of organizational failures..Dell’s buy back..Best Buy’s store closings,similar for Borders..Kodak’s blindness to digitization..andMyspace’s poor innovation efforts..But tomorrow shows signs of worlds current great companies..Medical device companies are faced with collapse due to HIT..Sony and Pansonic once bell weathers are faced with being outpaced in technology innovation and collpase due to lower priced competitors that have reverse innovated their products in emerging marketsTarget is missing the small box retailer environment that is dominanting e=urban enviroments moving sore sizes down 10-15%And Pfizer is heavily leveraged in treatment side of the business when everything is shfting to prevention and diagnosticcs…Not good news…these are competitive environments that you should be paying attenion to..
  • Finally transformation…here let us discuss industries that are seeing change because of the entrance of new technology or models that support some form of transformation to reshape the space..
  • One of the least known elements of this transformation is a key enabler…does anyone know what the number at the bottom represents?NO? well that is the number of unique IP addresses created by the formation of IPv6…now what does that mean? It means every industries transforms into a digitized space…with IP addresses being embedded into everything we do…widely underappreciated because it is happening around us even when we do not realize and before long we will be a walking talking IP address ourselves…monitoring our health constantly
  • Education is now at the precipice to total and radical transformation. No teachers…what if the teacher was simply a piece of technology where children could interact and then collaboratively share the learning's. This was called Hole in the Wall and Sugata one the TED prize for this earlier this year.The point here is not that Sugata won necessarily, but that this is asking the question…do we need to do things the normal way. 20 years ago could we have imagined teaching children without teachers? No…but think 10 years from now..do you still believe that to be the case.
  • Usual..
  • Transcript

    • 1. Disrupt, Collapse and Transform Trends Driving Growth Dorman Followwill, Partner
    • 2. “Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” – T.S. Eliot 2
    • 3. Disrupt
    • 4. Virtualization Cloud Computing Big Data Analytics Semantic Search Top 50 Technologies Regenerative Medicine Next-Gen Sequencing Biomarkers Personalized Medicine Targeted Drug Delivery Genetic Cosmetics Information & Communication Technology Medical Device & Imaging Technology Remote Patient Monitoring Surgical Robots Interventional Radiology Neuromodulation Technologies Health & Wellness Sustainable Energy Advanced Energy Storage Concentrated Solar Power Wind Power Grid Energy Management Superconductors Clean & Green Environment Waste-to-Energy Advanced Filtration Solid Waste Treatment Biochemicals Desalination Data Visualization Context-Aware Mobility Augmented Reality In-Memory Computing Top 50 Technologies Web Advanced Manufacturing & Automation Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing 3D Printing Composites Manufacturing Micromanufacturing Sensors & Controls CBRNE Detection Energy Harvesting Nanosensors Ubiquitous Wireless Sensor Materials & Coatings Microelectronics General Illumination LEDs Energy Efficient Processors Next-Gen Non-Volatile Memory Smart Haptics & Touch Flexible Electronics OLED Displays Carbon Fibers Biocomposites Superhydrophobic Coatings Smart Packaging Lightweight Composites Polymer Chameleons Alternative Feedstocks Nanocoatings 4 Note: All technologies have expected global impact Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 5. N=1 Integration of Technology changes manufacturing Business Model’s Source: MLC, Frost & Sullivan
    • 6. Business Model Focus Creates Higher Rate of Return Strategy Business model Hi Partnering Process Enabling process Core process Product Product performance Product system Delivery Service Channel Brand Customer experience Volume of Innovation Efforts Last 10 Years Lo Cumulative Value Creation Last 10 Years Hi Lo Source: Doblin analysis, Doblin Inc.
    • 7. Consumer-Initiative Business Models BRIC and Latin American Consumers to Group Up by the Internet to Lead Transactions C2C E-commerce Mercado Livre platform has nearly 12 million users and over US$ 610 millions in yearly C2C transactions in Latin America. Brazil accounts for 50% C2C Lending There are 4,144 C2C microlending companies in China. The total lending reaches $58.51 billion in 2011. Fast-growing internet penetration empowers BRIC consumers Other examples: OLX, Bomnegocio.com Example: Credit Ease C2C Lending C2B Kick-Start C2B Group buy Chinese and Indian consumers sponsor the service they want from SMEs*. Latin American consumers assemble to strive for group offers from the seller. Connectivity to create new business models Fund Example: Peixe Urbano, Groupon.com Note: C2C: Consumer-to-Consumer; C2B: Consumer-to-Business, SME: Small and Medium Enterprises. Example: Demohour.com Photo Credits: Changemakers, carhubindia, itcportal.com, grameenfoundation Source: Company websites; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
    • 8. Transparency • • • • Inability to hide Pervasive data =sustainability =privacy Inability to hide Pervasive “Big” data Sustainability Privacy
    • 9. Smart…….What is it??? Basic Sensing Mechanism LEVEL 1 Smart Bandages Basic Sensing Mechanism + Oneway Data Communication Smart Chip LEVEL 2 Smart Lighting Sensing Mechanism + Two-way Flow of Data Communication LEVEL 3 Smart Clouds Smart Windows Smart Mobility Smart Technology Smart Buildings Photo Credits: Dreamstime and Connected Digital World, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
    • 10. Collapse
    • 11. Today 2025 Oil & Gas Gas & Oil + Renewables Music = Apple Store Music = Streamed A Car = an OEM A Car = Facebook
    • 12. Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction Will Collapse Industries Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets 12 Virtual World Used for Product Builds Virtual Business Conferences Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives
    • 13. Healthcare Re-imagined In Person In Home Monitored Reactive Semi Reactive Predictive Delivered Direct To Patient – No MD
    • 14. Generational Political Changes 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation Mao Deng 4th Generation Jiang 5th Generation Hu & Wen Xi & Li Leader 1949 1975 1987 2002 Revolutionists • • • Core Thoughts • Milestone • Marxism Revolution Military and political unity. Chinese Civil War (19271949) People’s Republic of China (1949) 2012 Engineers • • • Pragmatism Socialist Market Economy Chinese Economic Reform (19781992) • • Change of Communist Party of China: allow private entrepreneurs to join the Party. • Hong Kong and Macao’s reunification with China (1997,1999) • • • • Scientific Development: empower SOEs* Harmonious Society: tighten up media control & internet censoring 17% GDP CAGR through financial crisis. Beijing Olympics (2008) Shanghai expo Law Professionals • • Expected to stabilize the commercial environment for foreign businesses To see a more liberal scenario on public communication. Source: The Central People’s Government of China; Frost & Sullivan
    • 15. Collapse Today Tomorrow? ? 15
    • 16. Transform
    • 17. Connected World: Over 80 billion devices China = 5.1 What Competition? will be Connected in Future Billion Devices 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020Devices 10 Connected 190Mn Pay TV In India for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every China 877Mn Internet Users user by 2020 800Mn Internet Users in Africa India = 1.5 Billion Devices 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 Connected World 5 billion internet 80 billion Devices users by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 by 2020 IPv6 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 17
    • 18. Education Transformation – Hole in Wall Sugata Mitra: TED Winner for Child Driven Learning 18
    • 19. Smart City Transformation Smart Energy: Digital Management of Energy Smart Buildings: Automated Intelligent Buildings • • • • • Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS • Parking Management • ITS-Enabled Transportation Pricing System • Renewable Energy Integration • Building integrated Photovoltaic • Smart Grids • Smart Meters • Intelligent Energy Storage Smart Technology: Seamless Connectivity Smart Mobility: Intelligent Mobility Smart Infrastructure: Digital Management of Infrastructure 4G connectivity Super broadband Free Wi-Fi 1Gbps download speeds Smart Governance: Government-on-the-Go • Use of ehealth and mhealth systems • Intelligent and connected medical devices • Sensor networks • Digital Water and Waste Management Smart Healthcare: Intelligent Healthcare Technology • e-Government • e-Education • Disaster Management Solutions Smart Citizen: Civic Digital Natives • Use of Green Mobility Options • Smart Lifestyle Choices 19
    • 20. 3D? What about 4D? Photo credit: MIT, Skylar Tibbits 20
    • 21. Healthcare Transformation Medical Device Connectivity Nanotech Advances Flexible Electronics Augmented Reality 3D Printing Devices leveraging long and short range wireless communications, cloud computing, big data analytics, and information security for enhancing care. Nanotechnology provides benefits of biocompatibility and functionally at an unparalleled scale, that is better able to influence diseases happening at a cellular level. Flexible electronics and displays currently being developed for commercial electronic devices, have tremendous applications for hospital care settings . Augmented reality devices which can overlay information and images via smart glass technologies could have tremendous applications in improving clinical workflow. As the cost and size of 3D printing technologies continues to become more scalable to healthcare settings, they have the potential to produce customized implants, surgical tools, and bioprinted tissues, organs, blood vessels, etc. 21
    • 22. Women Power New Family Trends in 2025 Salaries of Women At Par or More than Men by 2025 in most countries. In the UK women received better pay raises than men in 2010. Women will represent 25% of Parliament More female than male migration to urban centers in search of high profile jobs in the age group of 20-30 years. Every 1 of 3 workers will be a woman. Women Power in 2025 Women will hold 12% of the board seats and 50% of the managerial position. Women CEOs who currently account for only 3% will grow to represent 6% of the leaders Stay at home Dads/Househusbands One- Child Family and Late Children Over 40% of the global workforce will be women Single Parent 25 “Fortune Global 500” Companies will be headed by Women* Women will control or influence $90 trillion worth of consumer spending worldwide *Currently 15 Fortune 500 Companies are Headed by Women CEOs Source: Fortune 500 Magazine, 2009; Catalyst; International Labour Organisation; and Governance Metrics International Source: ILO, Catalyst, Frost and Sullivan Analysis 22
    • 23. Middle Class Transformation: Over 1.5 billion middle class consumers from India and China alone by 2020 Income (Annual) Russia2 Brazil2 China1 India1 Turkey2 South Africa1 Above $100,000 8 6 2 5 2 2 $60,000-$100,000 12 13 6 10 3 2 $44,000-$60,000 12 20 21 45 10 3 $22,000-$44,000 22 56 123 95 21 1 $15,000-$22,000 16 32 313 81 12 7 $10,000-$15,000 18 52 287 108 10 8 $7,500-$10,000 30 20 205 80 8 12 $3,200-$7,500 13 4 350 500 12 5 $1,000-$3,200 12 6 60 85 7 4 Below $1,000 2 2 21 390 0 9 Total Middle Class 55 140 949 864 61 19 Total Population 141 210 1,388 1,399 85 53 Note: Numbers in Millions 1Income Brackets in Total Household Income Terms 2Income Brackets in Per Capita / Individual Income Terms Middle Class Individuals Below Poverty Line Source: NCAER, Rosstat; TurkStat; CNBS; FGV; Frost & Sullivan Analysis 23
    • 24. So what will the future look like in 2025 We will be witnessing robots in homes China will be going through social reform Digital assistants will guide our lives Cars to have autonomous functions LATAM citizen health will be driven Designer drugs begin to emerge LATAM citizen will pay using their mobile phones Virtual world will kill / Reshape Industries
    • 25. Case Study: • IT consulting services, IT outsourcing and business process outsourcing • 1987, established in Sao Paulo. Now one of the most global companies in Brazil • Revenues over R$2 bn and 17,000 employees in 2013 Marco Stefanini, Global CEO 25
    • 26. : Drivers of globalization Need to go global Decision made in early ‘90s, when the company sold less than US$ 10m Globalization – a two way road Global players entering Brazil indicated it was necessary to expand to new markets Believe in Brazil’s potential Leveraging skills of local workforce enabled Stefanini to win in the competitive market of software and services exports Implement new business model Serve clients in a distributed way wherever possible, initially in Brazil and then in various countries Conquer new markets And from there start a globalization strategy that would finally position Stefanini as one of the world leaders 26
    • 27. : A true global company 66 cities 74 offices 40% of revenues outside Brazil in 2013 30 32 countries languages +R$ 4 bn Expected revenues in 2016
    • 28. ? 28
    • 29. Contact Information Dorman Followwill Partner – Director: Europe, Israel, Africa +44 1865 398620 dorman.followwill@frost.com Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research

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