Future of Autonomous Driving


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The automotive industry has adopted various technologies such as by-wire systems, keyless entry, smartphone replication interfaces, etc., from allied industries like aerospace & defense, and information & communication technologies. While autopilot mode and unmanned vehicles have been around in adjacent sectors, automotive OEMs are now trying to incorporate ways to automate urban and highway commuting. Kindly note our guest speaker MIRA’s slide deck can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing on demand. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording.

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  • Thanks Anna. Hello everyone. This webinar is split into three key parts: the first portion provides you with an overview of Automated driving and covers global activity by various OEMs, suppliers and what products are likely to enter the market in the next few years and at what price. We’ll also take a quick look at the Google car – as everyone has been talking about the entry of Google in this space. After all, the only engine one could’ve associated with Google is probably a search engine. So what are they doing with the car, how are they automating it and why do they matter! Shortly after this, you’ll hear from our guest-presenter Mr. Harald Barth on the Valeo Park4U solution and the challenges it addresses. And of course, designing, testing and validating autonomous cars is a challenge by itself. MIRA’s Dr. Anthony Baxendale will be covering this content, leading the webinar to a conclusion.
  • You have learned from various news articles two conflicting ideas: Driverless cars are coming to the roads sooner than you think and driverless cars are further away than you think. The root of the confusion is in the wordings. While the very webinar is titled the Future of Autonomous Driving, a more appropriate term would be automated driving. Here’s what and why!There are three key levels of vehicle automation : semi-automated mode, highly-automated mode and fully-automated mode. The semi-automated is the nearest possible leap for automakers and suppliers, as this level requires the integration of lateral and longitudinal functions to create short-duration short-distance automation for low-value driving tasks. So, when you put together the ACC with Stop & Go function with a Lane-Keeping or Lane-Change Assist function, interface it with steering, throttle control, braking and other related systems, you get a traffic-jam assist or a fully-autonomous parking mode. Typically, these are for very short durations or distances. Typically, the BMW X5 and Mercedes-Benz E-Class that are getting launched in 2014 have this function.Highly automated mode does the same functionality but for a longer distance or a longer period of time. In this case, the driver’s input is needed, maybe for 20 per cent of driving time, whereas the rest of the time, the vehicle drives itself. This sort of functionality is likely to be available on an Audi A8 in the next few years, in what they call a Piloted Driving mode. The Fully-automated mode is the Ultimate nirvana. There need not be a driver. The vehicle can drive itself 100 per cent of the time, for any distance. Now, this is what Google is working on, if I were to pinpoint.
  • As we saw in the previous slide, here are the various brands of car-makers mapped against their intended levels of automation. As you can see... Every single one of them plans with clear launch plans for the next few years, intends to first launch a semi-automated mode, closely followed by a highly-automated mode on another vehicle, while fully-automated mode is probably not even in their current launch plan. Even Lexus or Nissan who have made statements for launching highly automated cars are likely to first launch a semi-automated car as it is a strong business case to enter the market that already has competitors working on this solution. Google on the other hand aims to go all-out to create completely driverless cars, in a way much similar to android phones. I’ll be explaining this in later slides.
  • All OEMs typically fit their vehicles with Radar for short-, mid- and sometimes even long-range and Ultrasonic sensors for the immediate range. The technology choice among OEMs finds the divide mainly between a roof-mounted LIDAR or a periphery-fitted surround-laser in the perception environment and between Mono- and stereo-vision cameras in the vision sensing spectrum. Interestingly, despite having a sensor-suite similar to what BMW is pursuing, General Motors’ Cadillac SuperCruise is not a commercially viable solution, ready for series production. Clearly, the success of vehicle automation depends on factors beyond just the sensor suite itself. The sensors are more of the hardware, whereas software sophistication is what can take the capabilities to the next level. You also need very strong chassis-ADAS integration capabilities, to provide inputs to steering and braking, as if it were dictated by a human driver.
  • So, does that mean no one wants to make driverless cars. Well, among the traditional OEMs, the drive tends to be lesser. Most automakers adopt a piecemeal approach in this regard. As a case example, BMW who is launching their traffic jam assistant function on the X5 in 2014, made a statement that they do not feel the compelling urge to be the first in the market to create a driverless car. But Google, on the other hand, takes a cleansheet approach of creating potentially retrofittable automated driving modules. What’s interesting here is : Lexus’ Advanced Active Safety Research Vehicle on their model LS showcased an architecture very similar to that of the Google X project. But Lexus made a statement that their vehicles are not meant to be driverless. Clearly, automakers wish to continue to build cars for human drivers to be driving them, whereas potentially new entrants could be looking at a whole new avenue of untapped mobility potential.
  • Let’s talk some $ values now. Automated driving shall only be an extension of ADAS. If the ADAS package costs $2600 on the BMW X5, the add-on module for the Traffic Jam Assistant would cost another $1900 totalling up to $4500. Mercedes Benz offers their Distronic Plus with Steer Assist at $4000 on the upcoming E-Class. The rest of the values you see are based on 2014 ADAS option prices. We’ve extrapolated the Automated Driving values based on the 2014 ADAS offering by the individual OEM. From our estimates, Ford is best placed to launch a much more competitively priced Traffic Jam Assist, giving a tough competition to all the peers in the mass-market segment. The Google car is likely to be a $10,000 fitment available as a retrofit on select-models that can don this. Once deemed street-legal or fit for road-use, Google could be creating more number of Automated vehicles than traditional automotive OEMs. So, the slide-images on the right-hand side, those are screenshots from our upcoming report. We have methodically modelled the industry dynamics and the magic number that came out of our analysis is roughly 6 million vehicles, with a fairly equal split between Europe and North America. The graphs in the report will include a better level of detail on the volume of vehicles produced by each of the key brands, split by the level of automation.
  • Now this one needs no introduction. It’s been all over the news. I’m positive that every single one of you attending this presentation has seen the image of the car. But take a look at the technology that Google aims to put together for $10,000. A roof-mounted LIDAR, a High definition stereo-vision camera, a set of three forward sensing RADAR units and some on the rear as well. An array of ultrasonic sensors around the vehicle help in identifying the immediate space around the vehicle. Add to it a whole deal of connected devices, apps and even V2X communication in the future, the capability of the vehicle gets much better.
  • The way I see it, there will be two business models in the years after 2020. One is the traditional OEM approach. You will need to buy a car and in all likelihood, by that point of time, the most proven ADAS functions such as LDW, BSD, FCW, Rear Vision Camera, driver monitoring etc. will be standard fitment. This is mainly driven by legislative requirments or NCAP initiatives. So, what does that give you – all the hardware and the basic software needed to warn you when you deviate from normative driving behaviour. If you fancy automated driving, the software modules needed for it can be added to your vehicle. In fact, in the future, all of these additional software can be sent as over-the-air updates – when the vehicle is parked. A remote vehicle diagnostics unit will figure out if the new updates are good for use. You will now own a more advanced version of your own car. This is particularly suitable for a jump from an assisted vehicle to a semi- or even a highly-automated vehicle. For fully automated vehicles, or even highly automated vehicles to a good extent, a service-based business model could evolve. Let’s remember that the fully-automated vehicle is not street-legal at the moment. Legislation needs to permit these vehicles on public use for unrestricted use, beyond testing. At the moment, legislation in various countries requires the driver to be able to control the vehicle at all times. Imagine a connected environment in which a driverless car is on the road, fully connected to a remote operated unit. Now this remote operated unit can be called a DPO in short for driving process outsourcing. For every driverless mile, or even inch, covered by this vehicle, it can be tele-operated by a human-driver sitting in front of a driving simulator. Multiple modes of connectivity, through telematics and other means ensure near-realtime remote-control of the vehicle. The key is to minimize the lag in transmitting data back and forth. Users are expected to pay a fee either on a monthly basis or on a Pay-As-It-Drives model based on the usage. Road-operators, connectivity service providers, insurance companies, mobility integrators such as parking management companies – they all will get a slice of the pie. This could completely change the way autonomous cars are put to use in the real-world!
  • May I now have the pleasure of handing over the presentation to my copresenter, Mr. Harald Barth who’ll brief you about the product or application related challenges associated with the Park4U product. Over to you, Harald.
  • Future of Autonomous Driving

    1. 1. Future of Autonomous Driving An Overview of Market & Technology Roadmaps, Changes in Architecture, Design / Testing / Validation of Automated Vehicles Prana Natarajan, Team Leader Nick Ford, Sr. Consultant Automotive & Transportation A Joint Presentation with Harald Barth Product Marketing Manager Dr. Anthony Baxendale Research Manager © 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
    2. 2. Today‟s Presenters Prana T Natarajan Nick Ford Team Leader, Sr. Consultant, Frost & Sullivan Frost & Sullivan Mr. Harald Barth Product Marketing Manager Driving Assistance Valeo Bietigheim-Bissingen, Germany Dr. Anthony Baxendale Research Manager Future Transport Technologies MIRA Ltd • Prana leads a team of research analysts covering the chassis & safety systems market, besides tracking industry trends such as functional safety, 48V power net and automated driving • Nick is a senior consultant with prior experience of having served a leading chassis & safety systems supplier as a Global Product Planning Director • Harald is a highly experienced product marketing manager with immense product-related knowledge in commercially launching various safety products, now related to automated driving. • Anthony is a highly experienced research manager with a proven record of developing and delivering high technology solutions to the automotive, defence, security and telecommunications sectors. Prana Natarajan : uk.linkedin.com/in/pranat/ Nick Ford: uk.linkedin.com/pub/nick-ford/1/254/566 @FS_automotive Anthony Baxendale: uk.linkedin.com/pub/anthony-baxendale/7/754/989 2
    3. 3. Agenda No. Topic Page 1 Overview of Automated Driving 4 2 Global Analysis of Industry Activity on Automated Driving 5 3 Comparative Analysis: Functional roadmap, technology preferences & alternatives 6 4 Pricing implications: Consumers, OEMs & suppliers 9 5 The Curious Case of the Google Car: What, how & why? 10 6 Case Study: Valeo Park4U – the solution & challenges addressed 12 7 Design, Testing & Validation of Automated cars 15 3
    4. 4. Macro Level Outlook of Automated Driving – Driver Involvement While capabilities exist with automakers to create semi- or highly-automated vehicles today, the biggest challenge in taking the driver out of the loop is to make the car think like a human driver Automated Driving Market: Levels of Automated Driving, Europe & North America, 2013 Level of Automation Semi-Automated Module Highly-Automated Fully-Automated Steering, braking, acceleration, monitoring, access Application EPS, EBS+ Electric Parking Brake, Electronic Throttle Control, ADAS, keyless entry Intersection assist, redundancy back-up for connectivity, self-driving capability until driver takes over control (~10 seconds) Multiple redundancies (hardware) and Artificial Intelligence (Software) Length/ Duration of Automation (miles, seconds) Low Medium High High Medium NIL Driver Involvement (miles, seconds) Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 4
    5. 5. OEM Comparative Analysis – Overall Automated Driving Strategy While traditional OEMs tend to target an identical launch plan across functions, segments and regions, Google’s model agnostic approach could be the game changer Automated Driving Market: Comparative Analysis of Sensor Suite, Europe & North America, 2013 Automation Level Launch Year First Models BMW SemiHighly 2014 2017 X5 5- / 7-series Europe & North America Mercedes Benz SemiHighly 2014 2017 E-Class S-Class Europe, North America, Australia Audi SemiHighly 2016 A8 Europe & North America Volkswagen Semi- 2017 Passat Europe & North America General Motors SemiHighly- 2018 >2020 SRX, ATS & XTS North America Ford SemiHighly 2017 2020 Fusion Explorer Europe & North America Lexus Highly 2020 LS Japan, Europe & North America Nissan Highly 2020 Leaf Europe & North America Volvo Semi 2015 XC90 Europe & North America Google Fully- 2018 Model / OEM agnostic North America OEM (Cadillac) TJA – Traffic Jam Assist Top Level Functions TJA APA APA – Autonomous Parking Assist Region of Introduction Hwy Hwy – Automated Highway Driving Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 5
    6. 6. Sensor Portfolio for Automated Driving: Comparative Analysis Clear divide exists between OEMs more so in terms of periphery-fitted Laser versus roof-mounted LIDAR; Mercedes-Benz leads the way in leveraging stereo-vision to create 6D-vision for future vision-sensor fusion Automated Driving Market: Comparative Analysis of Sensor Suite, Europe & North America, 2013 OEMs Radar LIDAR* Camera Volkswagen Mono-Vision BMW Mono-Vision Audi Stereo-Vision Mercedes Benz Stereo-Vision GM Mono-Vision Volvo Stereo-Vision Google Car Mono- / Stereo-Vision * LIDAR refers to the typical roof-mounted multi-laser unit #- refers to lasers seamlessly integrated with vehicle periphery Laser# Ultrasonic Comments Stereo vision not a current priority. Focus on peripheral laser, rather than internalization of Lidar Bumper mounted Lidar offers lesser “field of view” 6D vision leverages stereo camera for traffic movement Current sensor suite not sufficient for AD Cautious approach in spite of being technologically astute Looks at fully automated driving only Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 6
    7. 7. Autonomous Driving: Application Roadmap While ADAS functionalities form the basis for vehicle autonomy, connected solutions ensure getting the most out of automated driving Automated Driving Market: Functional Roadmap, Europe & North America, 2010 - 2020 Semi-automated Highly-automated Autonomous emergency Lane Change assist Traffic Jam braking Automated Automated (Partial Parking system Assist Semi Smart Navigation valet Steering (Autonomous Autonomous (Vehicle deciding retrieval Highway autonomy) on routes) systemsEmergency parallel parking) steering Steer Assist 2010 ACC Driverless car Occupant specific driving dynamics, alerts to the environment (horn, dim dip) 2016 Intersection assist (powered by V2V V2X) 2020 Platooning Automated vehicle taking complete control of navigation, transmission, steering, braking and parking. Co-operative cruise control Assisted Cooperative driving Towards fully-automated driving Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 7
    8. 8. OEM Comparative Analysis While traditional OEMs are focussed on offering semi-automated features in the near future, Google’s to create an ecosystem dedicated to automated vehicles including retro-fit hardware High inclination towards going “driverless” Google Nissan Key Market for overall vehicle sales: US Volvo General Motors Ford MercedesBenz Capability needs improvement Highly capable Key Market for overall vehicle sales: global BMW Audi Fiat Renault VW Lexus Low inclination towards going “driverless” Note: capability is evaluated based on a weighted analysis of current vehicle line-up and demonstrator projects already showcased Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
    9. 9. OEM Comparative Analysis – Automated Driving Cost & Volume Analysis Ford is likely to lead the market offering automated modes of driving at a disruptive price-range, despite not having firm launch plans; Audi lags behind BMW & Mercedes-Benz who have very competently priced their offering Comparative Estimates of ADAS Option Cost with Automated Driving Option, US, 2014 Googl e 10000 4000 2800 Volvo 3500 2400 Lexus 2500 1700 Ford 5000 GM 3220 6600 Audi 2300 4000 MB 1920 4500 BMW 2600 0 5000 AD Package 10000 ADAS Package Price ($) 15000 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 9
    10. 10. Google Car: Sensors and Technologies Used The Google X automation module employs some of the finest and expensive sensors available today, enabling a transition to ADAS-enabled maps with accuracy of 10cm, a dire need for autonomous driving 360 Degree Laser detection (LIDAR) GPS helps navigation of the vehicle and also transmits vehicle data for the purpose of diagnostics & prognostics Lidar senses the driving environment around, including tracing lane markings and road-width Stereo Camera (HD) A Stereo- or a Mono-vision camera for forward-looking functions such as traffic sign recognition, traffic signal recognition, peer vehicle movement & trajectory projection, besides pedestrian and obstacle detection. RADAR Sensor 3 RADAR Sensors (Bow-mounted stereoscopic sensors) Forward sensing radar monitors the distance of the vehicles and obstacles in front Position Estimator Data from various sensors and vision inputs are fed into a central control unit that controls vehicle dynamics module and drive commands. Algorithm to be sophisticated to understand driving environment’s direct and indirect messages in terms of traffic and maneuvering Ultrasonic sensors may be used to measure the position of objects very close to the vehicle, such as curbs and other vehicles when parking Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 10
    11. 11. Business Models Around Automated Driving Besides the obvious ownership-based model, a new subscription-based driving-as-a-service business model can allow for autonomous driving, reinterpreting the human-availability clause Traditional OEM Approach Driving-as-a-service Model Manually driven • Every trim to have standard fitment of DAS warning functions & relevant hardware Basic DAS • This helps OEMs and suppliers to achieve economies of scale for enabling technologies for automated driving. Standard: LDW, BSD, Park assist, FCW, Rear vision camera and driver-monitoring • Every trim gets automated driving as an option, pursuing a pull-strategy. • Automated mode shall be activated only upon receiving a command from the driver Extended ADAS • Driver controls the vehicle when needed. Option: Lane Change / Keeping Assist, Autonomous Parking, Traffic Jam Assist, highway chauffeur and drivermonitoring Simulator Driverless Tele-operated vehicle control • Legislation around driver controlling a vehicle is open for interpretation, allowing for a potentially new business model on a subscription basis. • Vehicles can be tele-operated through a remotely located human driver. The driver controls the vehicle when needed, but monitors it constantly just as any human would. • Subscribers can hop-on and hop-off while a virtual driver always ensures the safety of the vehicle in the driving environment. Stakeholders involved: Legislators, Road-operators, telecom & telematics service providers, insurance providers, V2X service providers, mobility integrator etc. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 11
    12. 12. Valeo Park4U® – The solution & challenges addressed Intuitive Driving Valet Park4U® Harald Barth Product Marketing Manager Driving Assistance Nov 2013 Nov 2013 I 12
    13. 13. Valeo Park4U® – The Solution Control Unit Push button Sensors Affordable luxury for everyday‟s life 78 vehicle models from 18 brands From Semi- to Fully-automated Parking The future: Park4U® Remote / Valet Park4U® Source: Valeo Nov 2013 I 13
    14. 14. Valeo Park4U® – The Challenges addressed In a customer clinic over 70% of participants stated a strong interest to purchase Park4U® with their next car. Determine the vehicle‟s movement / position End-user perception / acceptance System‟s understanding of the situation Embed software code into a small µ-processor Source: Valeo Nov 2013 I 14
    15. 15. Meeting the Design Challenges of Autonomous Vehicles Balancing a high degree of system authority with a complex operating environment and security aspects requires a „System of systems‟ approach MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording. http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
    16. 16. The Need for System Resilience A paradigm change in the design of highly automated vehicle systems requires a “system of systems” approach to design and assurance MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording. http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
    17. 17. Requirements for the Design Process of Autonomous Vehicles To implement the resilience approach, a development process incorporating disruption management is required MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording. http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
    18. 18. Systems Engineering Framework for Autonomous Vehicles Based on a traditional automotive V-model lifecycle process, additional parallel stages are needed to cope with disruptions MIRA’s slide can only be viewed by watching the analyst briefing. Click the below link to access the on-demand recording. http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/analyst-briefing-detail.pag?mode=open&sid=286359044
    19. 19. Towards Autonomous Driving Strategic Review and Assessment of Future Opportunities and Implications for the Automotive Industry with the Advent of Autonomous Driving Workshop Proposal November 2013
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    21. 21. For Additional Information Prana Natarajan Team Leader – Chassis &Safety Automotive & Transportation +44 (0) 20 7915 7871 pranan@frost.com Nick Ford Consultant Automotive & Transportation +44 (0) 1454 880096 Nick.Ford@frost.com Harald Barth Product Marketing Manager Driving Assistance Mobile: +49(0)176-3000 4025 harald.barth@valeo.com Dr. Anthony Baxendale Research Manager Future Transport Technologies +44 (0) 24 7635 5559 Anthony.baxendale@mira.co.uk 21