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Frost sullivan turkish ev market_november2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Growth Opportunities in the Turkish Passenger and Electric Vehicle Market Mohamed Mubarak, Program Manager Melih Nalcioglu, Research Manager Automotive & Transportation November 2, 2011
  • 2. Today’s Presenter: Mohamed Mubarak Functional Expertise 6 years of experience in strategy consulting and research, having worked on more than 25 European and Global projects. - Manage the research and consulting operations in Frost & Sullivan, Turkey - Managed over 15 strategic projects in last 2 years with Frost & Sullivan, ranging from diverse topics in, - Market Assessment and Business Opportunity Analysis. - Product Planning and Diversification Strategy - New Business Model Planning and Growth Strategy Formation - Pre-Due Diligence Evaluation - Competitive Intelligence and Benchmarking - Sustainable Mobility Concepts in Global Megacities Industry Expertise Experience base covering broad range of industry sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Management. Before Frost & Sullivan, expertise in business development and product management in leading firms :Mohamed Mubarak M - Business Development Manager (IT Consulting), HCL Infosystems Ltd, IndiaManager - Research - Marketing Executive, Mitsubishi Motors .(JV with Hindustan Motors in India)Frost & Sullivan What I bring to the TeamTürkiye • Combined experience of consulting, research and business development. • Deep industry knowledge of Automotive Industry • Thought leadership in megacities and smart cities • Ability to understand client issues and offer optimum solution. • Presentation, client management and business development skills Career Highlights • Best Employee of the Year 2008, Frost & Sullivan. • Best New Joinee of the Year 2006, HCL Infosystems Ltd. Education Master of Business Administration in Marketing from University of Madras, India Bachelor of Engineering in Computer Science and Engineering from Crescent Engineering College, University of Madras, India. 2
  • 3. Today’s Presenter: Melih Nalcioglu Functional Expertise • 7 years+ experience in tailor made market research on cross industries in Turkey • Market oppurtinity assestment • Strategic partnership and due diligence • Market entry strategy Industry Expertise • Strong track record in advising SME’s and larger companies, particularly in following sectors and industries • Automotive & Transportation • Healthcare • Industrial Automation • Environment & Building Technologies Melih Nalcioglu Research Manager • Food & Agriculture Cross Industries What I bring to the Team • Profound understanding of business processes in various industries Frost & Sullivan • Extensive experience working on Spanish and German consulting companies EMEA • Extensive experience in approaching to the market from many different perspectives Istanbul, Turkey Career Highlights • 2011, April, Research Manager in Frost & Sullivan, Istanbul • 2010 – 2011 Research Consultant in FM Consulting - German Consulting Company, Istanbul • 2004 – 2010 Market Analyst in Copca (Acc1o) - Spanish Consulting Company, Istanbul Education • Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration, from Uludag University, Turkey
  • 4. Agenda Impact of Global Mega Trends on Automotive Industry Turkish Passenger Vehicle Market – Top Level Analysis Turkish Electric Vehicle Market – New Opportunity to Grab Key Conclusion 4
  • 5. The Urbanisation and Mega Trends that will shape tomorrow’s mobility and transportation needs Mega Cities & Mega Vehicle Ownership Regions (Over 50 /Sharing Trends (Over 10 cities by 2025 <10 million members of millions inhabitants) carsharing in Europe and North America by 2016) Integrated Technology Mobility Developments (smooth inter- (Integration - mobile modality – payment, cloudmetro, bus, vehicl computing, security) e sharing, etc.) New Economic Smart and DevelopmentsSustainable Cities (Beyond BRIC – N11 (Over 100 smart and Countries - sustainable cities with Infrastructurestate of the art mobility developments) & connectivity) Standardisation & Harmonisation (inter- operability across systems) 5
  • 6. Turkey – Urbanization Trend Urban sprawl in each city along with the emergence of mega-corridors will require city-specific sales strategy and dealership networks 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Urbanization Trend, (Turkey), 2010 and 2025 Marmara Megacorridor Istanbul Megacity Istanbul, Bursa, Yalova, Kocaeli and Sakarya Ankara Greater City Kocaeli Bursa Ankara KonyaIzmir Metropolian Adana Antalya Şanlıurfa Hatay Gaziantep Mersin Aegean Megacorridor Izmir, Manisa and Aydin Çukurova Megacorridor Gaziantep, Adana, Mersin and Hatay Legend Megacity Super City Emerging City 6
  • 7. Istanbul Megacity – Car Ownership and Commute TrendCar Ownership to increase by about 35%, while the share of people commuting bycar is to increase by 3% in 2025 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Istanbul 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Istanbul Megacity – Car Density, (Turkey) 2010 and 2025 Megacity – Cars Per Household, (Turkey )2007 and 2023 2010 2025 35% 1+ cars Istanbul Average Car Density (cars per 1000) 138 150 60% 3+ cars, 1.0% 1 car, 2 cars, 31.0% 65% 3.0% No Car 40% 2010 2025 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Istanbul Megacity – Modal Split, (Turkey), 2006 Metro & Ferry, 3% Tram, 8% Metrobus, Cars, 22% 6% Motorized Commute Taxi, 4% Areas along the Minibus, Bosporus have the 16% pattern highest car density 2010 Service Buses, 19% Bus, 21% *This represents 48% of motorized commuting. 7
  • 8. Agenda Impact of Global Megatrends on Automotive Industry Turkish Passenger Vehicle Market – Top Level Analysis Turkish Electric Vehicle Market – New Opportunity to Grab Key Conclusion 8
  • 9. Turkish Light Vehicle Market Overview – Light VehicleSales & Production: High Domestic Demand will drive domestic productionto reach 1.5 Million Volumes by 2020 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Light Vehicle Production and Sales, (Turkey), 2007 - 2018 Introduction of Chery; increase in Mass Production of capacity of Hyundai i20, and Ford 1,600 Renault Fluence Global Recession Transit models` Electric Vehicle (EU enter recession by 1,400 Q2/Q3 2008) 1,200 Units (Thousand) 2008 Level 1,000 800 1 Million Vehicles Sale by 2015 600 400 Temporary reduction of 200 SCT resulting pushing accumulated sales Production Sales 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: OSD, ODD, JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 9
  • 10. Light Vehicle Production by SegmentTurkey will remain the hub of LCV production 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Light Vehicle Production, (Turkey), 2007 - 2018 1.4 Million 1Million 2018 Production CAGR 2010 – 2018 (Percent) 5.00% 54% 51% 4.00% 3.00% 25% 24% 2.00% 1.00% 24% 22% 0.00% LCV C-Compact B-Sub Compact 2010 2018 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010.LCV includes Van and Pickup. SUV represents less than 1% of 2010 and expected to remain the same. Source: JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 10
  • 11. Light Vehicle Sales - Market Share Analysis by OEM’sCountry of Origin: Share OEMs from Chinese, Indian and APAC expected towitness growth 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Market Share Analysis of OEM by Country Origin, (Turkey), 2009, 2010, 2018 Market Share - 2009 Market Share - 2010 Market Share - 2018 Indian, 0 Chinese, Indian, 0.Chinese, Indian, 2 Chinese, .7% 1.4% , 0.0% 5% 1.4% , 0.0% .5% 3.7% , 0.0% APAC, 8. APAC, 8. 0% 6% APAC, 12 .9% Japanese , 11.2% Japanese Japanese , 11.4% , 13.5% European European European , 50.7% American , 54.5% , 50.9% American , 23.6% American , 21.7% , 20.8% 98.9% 99.2% 99.4% European OEMs: VW, Fiat, PSA, Daimler and BMW groups; Renault group excluding Nissan. American OEMs: Ford, GM and Chrysler groups. Japanese OEMs: Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Izuzu, Suzuki and Fuji groups; Nissan. APAC OEMs: Hyundai and Proton group. Indian OEMs: Tata, Mahindra and others, Chinese OEMs: Chery, Geely, Brilliance Motors, SsangYong Motors groups and others. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 11
  • 12. Vehicle Length Vs. Price7 customer segments 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Light Vehicle – Market Segment, (Turkey), 2010 High-end family Average Vehicle Price in Thousand Turkish Lira 200 Market 5 Series 175 E-Class 150 Medium segment has 3 different consumer segment 3 Series 125 C-Class 100 Executive-end Low-medium- Upper-medium-end family Market Large-van fleet end family 75 family Market Tiguan Market Market Qashqai C5 Passat Low-end- Golf Hilux Transit 50 Fiesta Corsa Corolla & Civic family Market A3 Megane Focus Polo Fluence Yaris Fiorino Clio Astra Transporter NP 300 Doblo 25 Linea Getz Bipper Punto Partner Low-medium-end i10 & i20 206/207 Series Berlingo Accent fleet & family /208 Kangoo Transit Connect - Market 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 Average Vehicle Length (mm) Note: Only key models are considered. All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 12
  • 13. Vehicle Length Vs. Price (contd.)Attractive market for low-cost micro and city cars 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Light Vehicle – Customer Segment, (Turkey), 2010 Average Vehicle Price in Thousand Turkish Lira 200 175 150 125 This will be an interesting segment 100 for urban/city cars, especially in Megacity like Istanbul and other 75 densely populated areas. 50 25 18 - 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 Average Vehicle Length (mm) This will be an interesting segment with the launch of low cost and micro cars like Tata Nano. Note: Only key models are considered. All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 13
  • 14. Vehicle Variant versus Sales and Price Analysis Most of the high selling models cater to the (Low/Upper) Medium customer/fleet segment 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Vehicle Variant vs. Sales and Price, (Turkey), 2010 Most of the high selling models cater to the (Low/Upper) Medium • The high selling compact cars customer/fleet segment. and sedans catering to the medium family consumer 35 segments have more than 20 variants. Megan 30 Getz, i20, Corolla Doblo Qashqai Clio Troy Linea (Sedan)Number of Variants (2010) 25 Fluence Transit Grande C-Class Accent Punto 20 (Sedan) Kangoo 15 Transporter C5 Fiesta Fiorino Passat Connect E-Class Yaris 3-Series Corsa 10 (Sedan) Caddy Nemo Civic Focus (Sedan) 5 Tiguan Partner Hilux Berlingo Bipper Astra (Sedan) 0 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 -5 • Models catering to the Low- O – Bubble Size is Price Medium customer segments do Unit Sales (2010) Price Range not have more variants as they O – TL24,000 to TL30,000 offer more options with limited O - TL30,000 to TL40,000 variants. O – TL40,000 to TL50,0000 O – TL50,000 and above Note: Only key models are considered. All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: JD Power/Frost & Sullivan 14
  • 15. Dealer Point Analysis by CityEmerging and super cities along with the upcoming mega-corridors demandrealignment and optimization of dealer point through hub-spoke concept 360 Degree CEO Perspective of Turkish Automotive Market: Dealer Point Analysis by City, (Turkey), 2010 Istanbul • 274 dealership Ankara • Renault (30); Dacia (23), Ford (20); Hyundai • 74 dealership (17). • Fiat (7); Renault, Ford, Opel, Dacia (6 each); Chevrolet (5) Kocaeli Bursa Konya Adana Antalya Şanlıurfa Gaziantep Mersin Hatay Izmir • 74 dealership • Renault (11), Dacia (7), Fiat, Chevrolet, Opel (5 each) Legend: Number 100 Plus 50 to 99 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 10 to 19 0 to 9 of Dealer Points 15
  • 16. Agenda Impact of Global Megatrends on Automotive Industry Turkish Passenger Vehicle Market – Top Level Analysis Turkish Electric Vehicle Market – New Opportunity to Grab Key Conclusion 16
  • 17. Developments in Turkish Electric Vehicle Market– A Roadmap 360 Degree Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market in Turkey: EV Roadmap, (Turkey), 2010-2020 Turkey: 2010- Volume EV manufacturing for export market by manufacturing Increase in selective OEMs of EV for export domestic sales market Renault’s Government Probability of fourannouncement Renault-Nissan announced tax Tofas (Fiat’s Realisation of OEMs to start EV to produce signs MoU with incentives for JV partner) to concrete production in Fluence EV. Istanbul and EVs through a develop an government Turkey—Fiat, BD Ankara special EV engine policies to Otomotive, BYD, Municipalities consumption tax. together with produce EV Titler.Government, O to promote and Arcelik for implement Evs. Doblo EV. motors and EMs, and city battery municipalities manufacturing. begin talks regarding EV Local Battery The first Between 2012 and infrastructure manufacturers charging station 2013, 10 new EV Annual sales tosetup and other announced their was installed in models will be 16,000 by 2017 opportunities. R&D investment Istanbul. launched. on EV batteries 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2014 2015-2017 17
  • 18. Electric Vehicle Ecosystem in Istanbul Megacity—Case Study: As a subsidary company of Istanbul Municipality, Istanbul Enerjiplays the role of integrator of EV Ecosystem in Istanbul Megacity. Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Ecosystem in Istanbul Megacity (Turkey), 2011 Market: (Turkey), 2011 Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel TEDAŞ, EÜAŞ, BEDAŞ, AYEDAŞ stanbul Enerji Renault, BD Otomotiv OEMs & Utilities Integrators Distributors Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, Charging Stations, OEMs, and Government Key Responsibility: Lower fuel Key Subsidies for EV Responsibility: Development of dependency by purchase and investment charging Supplies expanding the in R&D to reduce Promotion of EV use of renewable Development use infrastructure infrastructure emissions energy sources of to distribute performing their energy batteries Imported Global System/Battery NEC Charging Government Manufacturers Stations Infrastructure supplier Should support local Siemens, BD Otomotiv, suppliers to have a Coulomb Technologies place in EV structure No Local Battery Suppliers Inci, Mutlu, and Yigit are in R&D phase Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 18
  • 19. Turkish EV Industry Belt and EV InfrastructureDevelopment: Current EV infrastructure implementation in megacity andsuper cities will be implemented later in nine emerging cities along themegacorridors after 2013 Electric Vehicle Market: Turkish EV Industry Belt and EV Infrastructure (Turkey), 2011 Market: (Turkey), 2011 Gersan Full Charger EV Industry Belt BD Mutlu Otomotiv Akü Siemens Istanbul Fiat, Renault Bursa Ankara 2011 Expectations Yigit 10–50 Charge Points Akü 5–10 Charge Points Manisa nci Izmir Akü 1–5 Charge Points Konya Antalya Adana Şanlıurfa Gaziantep Emerging Cities Mersin Legend Megacity Super City Emerging City Battery EV Infrastructure development EV OEM Manufacturer Charging Device Providers 19
  • 20. Turkey—Demand for EVs and Charging Stations Turkey to have 46,000 EVs and 51,200 charging stations by 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Demand for EVs (Turkey), 2010–2017 Market: (Turkey), 2010–2017 40,000 Opt FS ConUnit Sales 26,200 20,000 16,000 14,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Electric Vehicle Market: Demand for Charging Stations (Turkey), 2010–2017 Market: (Turkey), 2010–2017 20,000 ~ 17,900 Level 1 Level 2 DC/DC Charging 10.3%Unit Sales 10,000 89.3% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 20
  • 21. Turkey—Electric Vehicle Production & Model Line-up Electric Vehicle Market: EV Production (Turkey), 2011–Post 2015 Market: (Turkey), 2011 Electric Vehicle Market: EV Model Line-up for Sales (Turkey), 2011–2013 Market: Line- (Turkey), 2011 RenaultRenault Fluence Z.E. Fluence Z.E. Kangoo Twizy Zoe Express Z.E. Peugeot i0nFiat Doblo EV Citroen C-ZEROSynerg- ? KarmaEthic Fisker BYD e6BYD e6 Doblò EV K9 eBus FiatFord Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Nissan LeafTemsaor ? GM AmperaOtokar Volt Mitsubishi i-MiEVBDAutomot Kangoo Roadsterive eFiorino eScudo eDucato eKangoo eTafic Express Z.E. Tesla Already launced in 2010 2011 2012 Post - 2015 2011 2012–2013 21
  • 22. Agenda Impact of Global Megatrends on Automotive Industry Turkish Passenger Vehicle Market – Top Level Analysis Turkish Electric Vehicle Market – New Opportunity to Grab Key Conclusion 22
  • 23. Key Conclusions High Urbanization Rate and Economic Growth to So what?? Influence the Domestic Sales 7 Key Customer City cars and Urban segment to focus Mobility Solutions Customer segment based Opportunities in approach E-Mobility Sector Realignment & Production will optimization of dealership continue to be pushed for exports EV Infrastructure, Battery & other Supply Domestic sales to attain 1 Million mark Collaborative Efforts for EV Setup Govt., OEMs & before 2014 Utilities Source: Frost & Sullivan 23
  • 24. Turkish Automotive & Transportation Studies – Research Plan Turkish Automotive Research Plan 2011 360 Degree CEO Perspective Analysis of the Automotive Industry in Turkey 2011 Strategic Analysis of Turkish Electric Vehicle Industry 2012 Strategic Analysis of Turkish Market for Leasing and Fleet Vehicles (Work In Progress)• Business Benchmarking and Comparative Analysis of OEMs Dealership Performance across all Revenue 2012 Environment Streams• Generational Trends Location Attractiveness Analysis for Automotive Manufacturing in selected Central and Eastern 2012• PESTLE Analysis European Countries (includes Turkey)• SWOT Analysis• Product 2012 Strategic Analysis of Turkish High Speed Rail Market Positioning• Brand Positioning• Industry Best Practices & Benchmarking Completed Forthcoming* *2012 Are tentative. Yet to be confirmed 24
  • 25. Frost & Sullivan’s Automotive & Transportation Practice – KeyResearch Topics Planned 2011 Business Strategy & Innovations Program Powertrain Program • Global Powertrain Industry Outlook • 2020 Global Automotive Industry Outlook • Analysis of the Market for Gasoline Direct Injection Technology – Europe, • Analysis of Microcars Market – North America Europe, Japan and NA – separate reports • Analysis of the Market for Variable Valvetrain Technologies - Europe • North America Small car market analysis • Hybridization of Transmissions – Analysis of Market Potential – Europe, North • Analysis of Car Sharing Market – America Europe, NA, Japan • Fuel Tank and Fuel Systems Market – Europe • Gen Y Customer Analysis • Energy Recovery Technologies in Powertrain - Europe and North America • Mega City Trends Analysis and Implications to Vehicle and Technology Development Electric & Hybrid Program • Analysis of Passenger Vehicle Market – • Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market - Eastern Europe, Brazil, Turkey India, China, ASEAN countries • Comparative Analysis of OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and Product • OEMs Future Product Development and and Price Positioning – Europe, North America Vehicle Platform Strategy • Electric Vehicle Platform Strategy of OEMs • Analysis of Automotive Electronics Market for Electric Vehicles Connectivity & Infotainment Program • Electric Vehicle IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems • Global OEM Benchmarking Study on • Electric Vehicles Motors Market - NA, Europe, China, India Connected Telematics and Infotainment Offerings and Strategies Safety & Chassis Program • Automotive App Store Market Analysis - • Analysis Of Electric Power and Active Steering Systems Market In North America 2011 Edition and Europe • Analysis of Navigation and Connected • Future Of Automotive Multiple-application Driver Assistance Camera Systems In Telematics Market in Russia • Evolution of Vehicle Cockpit / Instrument European and North American Passenger Car Market Cluster in European and North American • 2011 European Consumers’ Desirability and Willingness to Pay for Advanced Passenger Cars Driver Assistance and Driving Dynamics Technologies 25
  • 26. Preview of Planned Research by Program Areas for 2011 and 2012 - Turkey Automotive & Transportation Research Programme Frost & Sullivan • 360 Degree CEO Perspective Analysis of the Automotive Industry in Turkey (2011) Turkey • Strategic Analysis of Turkish Electric Vehicle Industry (2011) • Strategic Analysis of Turkish Market for Leasing and Fleet Vehicles (2012) • Location Attractiveness Analysis for Automotive Manufacturing in selected Central and Eastern EuropeanA Frost & Sullivan hub Countries (includes Turkey) (2012)for Market and • Benchmarking and Comparative Analysis of OEMs Dealership Performance across all Revenue StreamsTechnology Research (2012)on Turkey and • Strategic Analysis of Turkish High Speed Rail Market (2012)neighbouring countries. Aerospace, Defense & Security Research Program • An Opportunity Assessment of the Turkish Defense & Security Market (2011) • Global Military Satellite Services and Applications Market Assessment (2012)If you have any Energy & Power Systems Research Programmespecific interest in • Strategic Analysis of Turkish Renewable Energy Market (2011)seeing a Research • Analysis of Turkish GENSET Market in Turkey (2011) • Executive Whitepaper on the Opportunities for Green Buildings in Turkey (2012)Topic covered byFrost & Sullivan Environmental & Building Technologies • Turkey Water & Wastewater Treatment Market (2011)please contact usand we will do our Healthcare Research Programme • 360 Degree Analysis of Healthcare Industry in Turkey (2012)best to include it in • Medical Imaging Market Overview in Turkey (2012)our Agenda. 26
  • 27. Next Steps Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (enquiries@frost.com) Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2012: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring 9 – 10 May, 2012 (www.gil-global.com) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) 27
  • 28. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive Structure?Emerging Trends?Strategic Recommendations?Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation. 28
  • 29. Follow Frost & Sullivan onFacebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 29
  • 30. For Additional InformationKatja Feick Cyril CromierCorporate Communications Sales DirectorAutomotive & Transportation Europe+49 (0) 69 7703343 +33 1 42 81 22 44katja.feick@frost.com cyril.cromier@frost.comMelih Nalcioglu Mohamed MubarakResearch Manager Program ManagerAutomotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation+90 212 249 56 39 +90 212 244 69 41melih.nalcioglu@frost.com mohamedm@frost.com 30