Urbanisation and the Implications for Africa

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Urbanisation and the Implications for Africa

  1. 1. 1We Accelerate GrowthUrbanisation and The Implications For AfricaCity as a Customer: Identifying Growth Opportunitiesin The Cities of TomorrowMani James, Regional DirectorFrost & Sullivan Africa
  2. 2. New Mega TrendsMacro to Micro Opportunities on FutureBusiness, Cultures and Personal Lives
  3. 3. Agenda• Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends• Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future – A snapshot• Urbanisation: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors & Mega Slums– Where and when – Global & Africa– Implications to Business – City as a customer• Implications and Strategic Conclusions
  4. 4. Definition of a Mega TrendWhat is a Mega Trend?Impact of Mega Trends on KeyOrganisational FunctionsMega Trends are global, sustainedand macro economic forces ofdevelopment that impact business,economy, society, cultures andpersonal lives thereby defining ourfuture world and its increasing paceof changeMarketingandStrategyR&DBudgetSpendingCompetitiveBenchmarkingProductPlanningandDevelopmentTechnologyPlanningInnovationScouting
  5. 5. Frost & Sullivan covers the following Mega TrendsTop Mega Trends That We Track Under our Mega Trends ProgramUrbanization –City as aCustomerSmart is the NewGreenSocial Trends: Gen Y,Middle Bulge, She-conomy,GeosocializationConnectivity andConvergenceBricks and ClicksInnovating toZeroNew BusinessModels: Value forManyEconomy:Beyond BRIC: TheNext GameChangersFutureInfrastructureDevelopmentHealth, Wellnessand Well BeingFuture ofMobility
  6. 6. Urbanisation -“City as a Customer”- Global View
  7. 7. Mega CitiesMegaRegionsMega SlumsMegaCorridor
  8. 8. Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogotaaccount for 50% of the country’s GDP; Gauteng will account for roughly 40% ofSouth Africa’s GDP by 2020What are the Micro Implications? New Products and Solutions High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions City as a Customer
  9. 9. Mega Cities in 2025ChongqingNote: A Mega City has a population greater than 8.0 million and aGDP of $250.00 billion or more.Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012);World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision; and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Population in 2025More than 27 million18–27 million8–18 millionBeijingChongqingWuhanTianjinChengduHarbinTokyoOsaka-KobeDelhiMumbaiMexico CityNew York CitySão PauloKolkataLos AngelesBuenos AiresIstanbulCairoRio de JaneiroJakartaMoscowParisLondonChicagoSeoulTehranMadridShenzhenFoshanGuangzhouHong KongShanghaiHangzhouShenzhenNanjingBogotáMega Cities, Global, 2025
  10. 10. Global Snapshot of Sustainable/Eco Cities in 2025Note: Eco Cities are cities built on a green initiative, from buildings to transportation, governance, cityplanning, energy, and technology. These cities are either upgraded or built from scratch.Sustainable/Eco City in 2025Sustainable/Eco City builtfrom scratchAccraJohannesburgCape TownDurbanTunisMasdar CityDohaBelo HorizonteBogotáBrasíliaRio de JaneiroSão PauloCuritibaMexico CityPortlandSacramentoOaklandSan DiegoDallasHoustonOrlandoAustinMinneapolisSan JoseDenverBostonOttawaMontrealPhiladelphiaWashington DCColumbusEdmontonCardiffBrusselsZurichLyonFrankfurtMilanRomeCambridgeshireMarseilleTampereGenevaGrazRigaVilniusMetzTubingenMontpellierBordeauxCasablancaNorwichHamburgManchesterGothenburgIsle of WightGlasgowLiverpoolDublinMarseilleBergenEdinburghNantesGyorNorth AmericaLatin AmericaEuropeMiddle Eastand AfricaAsia-Pacific & AustraliaIstanbulBursaAnkaraEskisehirIzmirDenizliAntalyaAdanaEdinburghGujarat International Finance Tec City (GIFT)Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, TianjinNanjingHong KongFoshanGuangzhouWuxiOsakaYokohamaWanzhuang Eco-city, HebeiMedanPalembangJakartaSurabayaDenpasarMakasarBalikpapanAdelaideMoreland
  11. 11. Mega Regions in 2025Greater SaoPaulo28.8 millionGreater BuenosAires36.5 millionCentral Mexico31.4 million Chennai, Kanchipuram,Pondicherry15.0 millionGreater LosAngeles20.9 millionTri-state Area36.9 millionLagos and EkoAtlantic City25.0 millionMarmara Mega RegionIstanbul, Kocaeli20.6 millionMumbai, Bhiwandi,Kalyan, Thane,Ulhasnagar34.4 millionNew Delhi, GreaterNoida, Ghaziabad,Gurgaon, Faridabad28.5 millionPopulation greaterthan 40 millionPopulation from 20million to 40 millionPopulation from 15million to 20 millionBeijing-Tianjin51.0 millionShanghai67.9 millionChongqing-Chengdu28.9 millionWashington, D.C.-Baltimore Area15.6 millionGreater Rio deJaneiro17.2 millionCairo-Giza17.6 millionSource: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012);World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision; and Frost & Sullivan analysis.National Capital Region inthe Philippines27.7 millionGuangdong Region58.7 millionGreater Jakarta 29.8millionGreater Bangkok19.2 millionKolkata,Howrah21.6 millionJohannesburg and Pretoria7.6 millionEmerging Mega RegionMega Regions, Global, 2025
  12. 12. Mega Corridors in 2025Mega Corridors, Global, 2025Latin America (2)• Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo-Campinas Corridor• Toluca-Mexico City-PueblaCorridorUnited States (3)• SouthernCalifornia• Great LakesCorridor• Bos-Wash (D.C.)CorridorAfrica (3)• Abidjan-OuagadougouCorridor• North-SouthCorridor• Kampala-Nairobi-Mombasa UrbanCorridorIndia (8)• Delhi MumbaiIndustrial Corridor• Mehsana-Valsa• Mumbai-Ahmedabad• Mumbai-Nagpur• Bangalore-Belgaum• Hyderabad-Hindupur• Srikakulum-Nellore• Chennai-HosurCross-country (1)Beijing-Tokyo-Pyongyang-Seoul CorridorJapan (1)Tokyo-Osaka CorridorAustralia (2)• Brisbane Urban Corridor• Perth Urban CorridorJakarta (2)• Sumatra-Java• Jakarta-East JavaMalaysia (5)• Sarawak Corridor ofRenewable Energy(SCORE)• Sabah DevelopmentCorridor (SDC)• East Coast EconomicRegion (ECER) Corridor• Northern CorridorEconomic Region (NCER)• Iskandar DevelopmentRegion (IDR) CorridorTurkey (1)Istanbul-IzmirMega CorridorChina (7)• Beijing-Harbin and Dalian• Beijing-Shanghai• Shanghai-Chengdu• Ningbo-Shenzhen• Beijing-Guangzhou• Shanghai-Kunming• Guangzhou-Shenzhen-HongKongNote: Mega Corridors are corridors that connect two major cities or Mega Regions (60 km or moreapart, and with a combined population of 25 million or more). The corridors can be plannedtransportation or economic corridors (with planned investment going into transport infrastructure,industrial zones, energy, or real estate) or naturally evolving urban corridors.Mega Corridors (21)Transportation Corridors (16)Source: UN-Habitat and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Europe (2)• Trans-EuropeanNetwork Transport(TEN-T)• Blue-BananaCorridorRegions with Mega Corridors
  13. 13. Mega Slums by 2025Asia56.9%Restof theWorld43.1%Slum Population, Global, 20251.1Oceania25.1Northern Africa41.888.7EuropeSoutheasternAsia89.4WesternAsia196.8Latin America andthe Caribbean362.0Eastern Asia475.7476.0South-Central AsiaSub-SaharanAfricaSource: UN-Habitat and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Forecast of Asian SlumPopulation as a Percent ofTotal Slum Population,Global, 2025Note: The numbers in the circle are in millions
  14. 14. Population & GDP Trends by 20250.00200.00400.00600.00800.001 000.001 200.001 400.001 600.001 800.000.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0TorontoKarachiLagosManilaBangaloreChennaiLahoreHo Chi MinhCityBangkokLimaBelo HorizonteRiyadhAhmedabadDongguanSantiagoTehranHaerbinMadridMiamiPhiladelphia ChengduFoshanHangzhouNanjingNCT of DelhiMumbaiSão PauloMexico CityBuenos AiresRio de JaneiroCairoKolkataGuangzhouWuhanJakarta IstanbulChongqingTianjinShenzhenChicagoLondonParisBeijingMoscowOsaka-KobeSeoulHong KongLos AngelesShanghaiTokyo: $3,253 billionNew York: $2,542 billionGDP($Billion)Population (Million) Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.Population and GDP for Mega Cities, Global, 2025Note: The red dotted line showsthe minimum GDP ($250.00billion) and population (8 million)required to identify a Mega City.The shaded region includes allthe Mega Cities of 2025.
  15. 15. Mega Cities GDP Trends by 2025MumbaiSão PauloMexico CityKolkataShanghaiBeijingBuenos AiresLos AngelesCairoRio de JaneiroIstanbulOsaka-KobeShenzhenChongqingGuangzhouParisSeoulJakartaMoscowChicagoTianjinWuhanLondonTehranChengduFoshanNanjing, JiangsuHangzhouHaerbinHong KongMadridBogotá(250.00)(100.00)50.00200.00350.00500.00650.00800.00950.001 100.001 250.001 400.001 550.001 700.001 850.002 000.000.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0Size of the Bubble = Area in sq. km in 2025Tokyo: $3,253New York: $2,542• Mega Cities to contribute $30 trillion GDP (nominal) by 2025• 541.6 million people to live in Mega Cities by 2025• 13 out of 35 Mega Cities to have a population greater than 15 million by 2025• Globally, China to have the most Mega Cities (13), and these will contribute 27% of thenational GDP (nominal) by 2025GDP($Billion)Population (Million)Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.Comparative Analysis of Mega Cities, Global, 2025
  16. 16. Urbanisation -“City as a Customer”- Africa
  17. 17. Urbanisation in AfricaLagos+EkoAtlantic City16.3 Million PeopleLuanda & Dar Es Salaam• 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from4.7 million in 2010 to over 8 million by2025 forming a mega-cityof high population density andcommercial activityAbidjan – Accra – Lagos & North South Corridors• Transport routes across the region will beexpanded and integrated to create corridors fortrade and inter--continental co-operation bylinking mega-citiesLagos and Eko Atlantic City Region• Lagos’s Eko Atlantic City will merge withthe city of Lagos to form a future businessgateway to Africa – amega-region of over 16 millionCairoCape TownLuandaOuagadougouAccraAbidjan
  18. 18. Africa – Population ForecastLagosCairoKinshasaSource: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Cities with Greatest Urban Population, Africa, 2010, 20250.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.02010 2025Cairo 11.0 13.5Kinshasa 8.8 15.0Lagos 10.6 15.8UrbanPopulation(Million)YearSouth Africa currently contributes 15.6% of Africa’s GDP; Egyptcontributes 14.8%.
  19. 19. Africa – Population Forecast – Region wise025 00050 00075 000100 000125 000150 000175 000200 000225 000250 0001995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Eastern Africa 43 821 53 041 63 679 76 791 93 132 113 090 137 299Middle Africa 29 764 35 899 43 741 53 678 65 601 79 515 95 559Northern Africa 74 886 85 540 97 580 111 280 125 946 141 173 156 973Southern Africa 24 625 28 053 30 430 31 987 33 396 34 930 36 481Western Africa 73 967 91 858 111 734 134 165 159 592 187 484 218 272UrbanPopulation(‘000)YearUrban Population Forecast by Region, Africa, 1995–2025Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs and Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  20. 20. Mega Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%, 1.2billion people, 60% of Africa’s population, will be urbanised by 2050Growth of African Cities% increase, 2010- 2025 forecast0 20 40 60 80 100Cape TownJohannesburgDurbanCairoCasablancaAlgiersAlexandriaDoualaAccraIbadanLagosDakarAbidjanAddis AbabaLuandaKinshasaNairobiDar es SalaamData Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010AlgiersDar es SalaamAlexandriaNairobiCasablancaAccraAbidjanAddis AbabaDakarIbadanDoualaCape TownDurban5.6 million3.6 million4.1 million4.3 million3.2 million3.1 million4.7 million6.2 million6.2 million3.8 million3.2 million3.5 million6.3millionLuanda8 millionMigration Urban Population, 2025Mega City population, 2025
  21. 21. Mega Regions in AfricaMega Regions in 2025Potential MegaRegions in 2030Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012); WorldUrbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision; and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Lagos and Eko Atlantic City RegionPopulation 2025: 25 MCairo-GizaPopulation 2025: 17.6 MJohannesburg & PretoriaRegionJohannesburg, Sandton,Randburg, Midrand,Centurion, and PretoriaPopulation 2025: 7.6 MMega Regions, Africa, 2025
  22. 22. Mega Corridors in AfricaSource: UN-Habitat, 2010 and Frost & Sullivan analysis.AbidjanOuagadougouCape Town Johannesburg/PretoriaDar es SalaamNairobiAddis AbabaAccraIbadanLagosLuandaKinshasaCairoAlexandriaPopulation less than 25 million peopleTransportationCorridors1,000 km Abidjan-Ouagadougou CorridorThe Greater Ibadan Lagos Accra(GILA) Corridor• Combined population greater than18 million• Contributes combined GDP ofabout $127.6 millionTrans-Cunene CorridorWill link the Democratic Republic ofCongo (DRC) with South Africa throughAngola and NamibiaNorth-South Corridor• Facilitate inter-regional tradefrom Cape to Cairo• Free trade area comprising533.0 million people• Combined GDP of $833.00billion or 58% of Africa’s GDP900 km Kampala-Nairobi-Mombasa Urban CorridorThe North Delta Region• Combined population of 77 million• 3 emerging corridors: Cairo-Suez;Cairo-Alexandria; Cairo-IsmailiaTransportation Corridors, Africa, 2025
  23. 23. Mega Slums in AfricaPercent of Urban Residents by Type ofSettlement, Africa, 2020Splintered UrbanizationAfrican urban communities will becomprised of 70% informalsettlement dwellers living alongsidean emerging middle class, similar tocondition in India.Source: UN-Habitat and Frost & Sullivan analysis.Lagos, Nigeria75% of populationlives in informal settlementsLuanda, AngolaCacuaco to have600,000-plus peopleJohannesburg/PretoriaSowetoKinshasa, DemocraticRepublic of CongoNairobi, KenyaKibera to have 1million-pluspeopleEthiopia99.4% ofcountry’spopulation livesin informalsettlementsChad99.4% of country’spopulation lives in informalsettlementsMaputo, MozambiqueCape Town, South AfricaKhayelitshaForecast of Major Slums, Africa, 2050Living inSlums70.0%NotLiving inSlums30.0%
  24. 24. Implications &Strategic Conclusions
  25. 25. Macro to Micro Implications of UrbanisationImpact of UrbanisationUrbanization will lead to manycross-sector implications andopportunities, and will createcities as customers that demandinfrastructure solutions.Retail• Bricks and clicks• Change from big box to small box• Single channel to omnichannel• Social media marketing• Zero design to shelf• Virtual stores• Retail parksHealthcare• Hub-and-spoke healthcare-delivery model• e-Healthcare• Medi Cities• Healthcare data exchangesLogistics• Warehousing: consolidationcenters• Transportation: shared fleets,hybrid vehicles, polarizing fleet• Last mile: night and earlymorning deliveries• Supply-chain management:LBS-based trackingMobility• Park-and-ride systems• Car- and bike-sharing• Micro Mobility• Low-emission mobility (e.g., electriccars)• Multimodal MobilitySecurity• Safe Cities• Intelligent security systems• Biometric and neural identity• Integrated sensors• Reactive disaster management solutionEnergy• Smart Grids: Demand-response,energy-management systems• Smart Meters• Smart Home Appliances• Flow and regenerative technologies• Renewable integrationSmart Products• Smart Bandage• Smart Door• Smart Cities Solutions• Smart Buildings• Smart MaterialsImage Source: Dreamstime. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  26. 26. Macro to Micro Implications of UrbanisationMobilityUrbanisation: Cityas a CustomerIntegrated andintelligent MobilityInfrastructureNote: OEM = original equipment manufacturers. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.• Online-booking• Parking management• Tele/ video conferencing• Mobility solutions• Smartphones, tablets• Payment Engines• Vehicle OEMs• Search engines• Mobile phones• Telematics providers• Technology software• Transportation hardware• Car rental/fleet leasing• Public transportation operators• Telecom providers• Parking operators• Navigation providers• Mega Corridors• Mega Regions• Mega Cities• Smart Cities• Sustainable Cities• Safe CitiesProducts andServicesStakeholdersKey Stakeholders and Products in a Integrated Mobility Value Chain, Global, 2020
  27. 27. Opportunities across various sectors in Africa`Electricity$0.5 trillion inelectricityinfrastructureHealthcareInfrastructure$30 billion privatehealthcare infrastructureInfrastructure$0.3 trillion in roadand railinfrastructureupgradingPort InfrastructurePort infrastructureinvestment andupgrading of $0.2 trillionWater SanitationInfrastructure andChemicals$0.6 trillion ininvestmentKey Opportunities, Africa, 2010-2020
  28. 28. Key Strategic Conclusions1. Mega Trends impact multiple industries. Examine them carefully to optimally developmedium and long term strategies in current and new markets2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend, possible convergenceand the elements of the value chain which have most profitability3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalableopportunities4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half thelife-cycle speed of the past decade5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisationstructure to best exploit the opportunities6. In Africa we need to particularly understand the opportunities arising locally as aconsequence of global mega trends – e.g. local markets, international markets, as partof international supply chain
  29. 29. Contact UsMani JamesRegional Director: AfricaFrost & SullivanT: +27 (0)21 680 3208Mani.james@frost.comCape TownMaitland II buildingRiver ParkLiesbeek ParkwayCape TownSouth AfricaTel: +27 (0)21 680 3260Fax: +27 (0)21 680 3296

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