Frost & Sullivan: Mega Trend 2020 Global Smart Grids


Published on

Published in: Technology, Business

Frost & Sullivan: Mega Trend 2020 Global Smart Grids

  1. 1. Mega Trends 2020: Perspective on GlobalSmart Grid Ravi Krishnaswamy Vice President – Energy Practice Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific
  2. 2. Global Mega Trends 2020
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. Top Mega Trends for Next Decade Urbanization: Health, Wellness and Well-Being: Increasing pace of urbanization will lead to integration With smarter drugs, virtual hospitals and cyber documents, of core city centers with suburbs and daughter cities, the healthcare industry is poised for a radical change with resulting in expanding city limits. This will have massive information technology taking the forefront in research and impact on the future of mobility, working life and development, diagnostics, and monitoring. In the future, societies. Three concepts of urbanization will emerge: diagnostics will become less invasive, preventative, and Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors. image-based. Medicines will be marketed as molecular and personalized drug cocktails. Government will increase • Mega Cities: Integration of core city with suburbs and healthcare spending from 15 percent in 2010 to 20 to 30 housing more than 5 million people. percent by 2050, thereby changing the landscape and • Mega Regions: Integration of two or more cities or dynamics of the healthcare industry. Health, Wellness and expansion of city to join with adjoining daughter cities Well-Being will become the new value proposition of to form Mega Regions, housing more than 15 million companies across sectors and an important factor of people. differentiation and discussion. • Mega Corridors: Urbanization corridors connecting two or more Mega Cities or Mega Regions converging to form Mega Corridors. These can be a 60-mile distance and have a population of more than 25 million Innovating to Zero!: living within the corridor. A “Zero Concept” world with zero emissions, zero accidents, zero fatalities, zero defects, and zero breaches of security SMART is the New Green: will be a reality in the future. Companies will shift focus and With the advent of technology and infrastructure develop products and technologies that “Innovate to Zero,” development, there will be a shift from “GREEN” to the such as zero-emission technologies including wind power, “SMART” concept. Some of the SMART initiatives will Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR), Solar PV, and Third- find their way into elements of energy, technology, Generation Biofuels. grids, cars, buildings, utilities and infrastructure. Energy efficiency and zero emissions will be the basic premise of such initiatives.M65B-18 5
  6. 6. Top Mega Trends (cont.) E-Mobility: Technology: More than 40 million electric two-wheelers and four- New technologies will spur the growth of multiple wheelers will be sold annually around the globe in 2020. innovative applications, changing the way we live, E-Mobility, from electric cars to electric aircrafts, will communicate, conduct business and interact with usher in a new set of players with new business models machines. Innovative technologies of the future, offering an innovative and customized set of coupled with satellite development and artificial infrastructure and technology solutions. intelligence, will open a plethora of new business models and new opportunities for growth. New Business Models: SPACE JAM & Cyber Warfare: Next-generation business models will redefine future These two very distinct Mega Trends are interrelated business propositions and influence future technology and have synergetic opportunities. Space Jam and product development. These business models will represents the opportunities expected from the launch not only reshape the landscape of the business of more than 900 satellites in the next 10 years, about environment, but also influence industry dynamics. 15 percent more than those launched in the past 10 Some of these evolving models are personalization, years, but with a big difference; about 40 to 50 car sharing, and “Pay by the Hour.” percent of satellites launched in this decade will be for civilian applications. China, the European Union and Russia will launch their equivalent GNSS (Global Navigational Satellite System).M65B-18 6
  7. 7. Top Mega Trends (cont.) High-Speed Rail and Future Infrastructure Social and Economic: Development: Changing social trends in Generation Y, middle class With about $41 billion expected to be pumped globally for and women empowerment will usher in new infrastructure projects (2005-2030), there will be a opportunities signaling the advent of customized tremendous improvement in the quality and operational applications and innovative technologies. The next efficiency of sectors such as transport, power and water. level of social networking and geo socialization will Emerging transportation corridors (e.g., Trans-Siberian result in new trends of networking, digital marketing Rail, High-Speed Rail Corridors in the United States) will and innovative ways of socializing, furthering the lead to mushrooming of economic and technology clusters evolution of interaction between individuals and along these corridors. These integrated hubs will be the organizations. Companies will now look at new future centers of innovation, R&D and technical excellence, economies “Beyond BRIC” and new outsourcing hot attracting massive investment and government support. spots for their business operations.M65B-18 7
  8. 8. “Green” to be Replaced with “Smart” Smart Smart Smart Smart Cities Technology Infrastructure Hospitals Smart Smart Mobility Smart Grids Smart Clouds Buildings Smart Smart Smart Phones Smart Meters Materials Bandages 8
  9. 9. Top Ten Energy Market Trends and Technologies 9
  10. 10. Top 10 Technologies to Watch for in 2020 Annual Power and Energy Outlook: Top 10 Technologies through 2020 Energy Storage Waste-to-energy Smart Grid Wind Energy Bioenergy Top 10 Technologies of the Future Following are key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the Hydrogen & Fuel Unconventional globe. These areas present a Cells Gas potential high ROI. Energy Clean Coal Management Technologies Solar 10
  11. 11. Global Smart Grids Market Head Winds Impact due to uncertain economy – Smart Grid is still not a ‘must have’ for utilities Very limited government Lack of large scale ownership and initiative – demonstration projects– Complex nature of the system Business model validation and means a diffused ownership model technology proliferation is not is not helping market advancement easy without large scale projects Connectivity gaps of key smart grid domains – Communication technology, interoperability and security issues slows down harmonious development 11
  12. 12. Global Smart Grids Market Push Factors One solution different sizes and shapes – Suitable for any utility or country irrespective of maturity levels Industry Collaboration to create Opportunity to Leap frog– new growth markets – Emerging economies can directly Commercial organizations forming create a smart utility alliances to jointly develop products infrastructure & tools and implement projects Modular Concept – Ability to independently deploy and latter integrate the systems, supports staggered investment 12
  13. 13. Global Hotspots for Smart Grids EU commitment to 2020 emission targets, directives for internal electricity Very clear nationwide markets and integration of renewables are key drivers. Electric vehicles vision and roadmap for and smart cities are additional enablers. Regulatory disparities, lack of smart grid. Potential appropriate business models and economic difficulties major restraints investment of over $100 billion in next 20 years. Test bed project involving all key components High level of grid reliability and need to further promote renewable integration post- Fukushima. Smart City another major driver. Home to major However utility monopoly technology and market could hamper customerinnovations. Fragmented choice nature of utility sector and decentralized China’s State Grid decision making hinder Corporation plans to invest commercial deployment US$45 billion for smart grid on large scale technologies as a part of $250 billion upgrade to its electrical infrastructure Brazil government mandated smart meters roll out to avoid energy Power distribution and theft and also improve retail companies leading reliability ahead of major the initiative. Smart City sporting events. and Smart Grid initiatives Renewable Energy boom supported by governments and distribution automation and regulators (A$100 m major factors funding) 13
  14. 14. Smart Grid Components Smart Meters and Installation Advanced Communication Systems and Networks Metering Meter Data Management Infrastructure Customer Data and Program Management Power Curtailment Revenue Demand Home Area Network and Management Response Smart Home Appliances Distribution Distribution Automation Grid Substation Automation and Integration Management Field Equipment Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) High Voltage High Voltage DC (HVDC) Transmission Ultra High Voltage DC (UHV) Systems Grid Monitoring Systems 14
  15. 15. Smart Grid Revenue Forecasts (Global) Source: Frost & Sullivan Forecast 15
  16. 16. Geographical Forecast for Smart Grid Revenues Source: Frost & Sullivan Forecast 16
  17. 17. Smart Grid Components – Revenue Forecast Source: Frost & Sullivan Forecast 17
  18. 18. Strategic Positioning of Market Leaders 18
  19. 19. Brief Profile of Market Leaders 19
  20. 20. Strategic Benchmarking of Market Leaders 20
  21. 21. APAC Microgrid Markets 21
  22. 22. Microgrid Architecture OverviewPower Source Automation Transmission and Distribution Automation Distributed Generation Microgrid Control (DG) Center Diesel/Gas Biomass Energy Solar Management Demand Wind Systems Response Switch Energy Storage Lead Acid Batteries Flywheels Electricity Loads Fuel cells or Flow batteries Main Grid Sodium Sulfur and etc Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 22
  23. 23. Microgrid Evolution and DeploymentDecentralizing Adding more generators Making the community gridgeneration away from to supply for a larger ‘smarter’ and the ability tomain utility grid community support the main utility grid Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 23
  24. 24. Microgrid End User Segmentation Country Sub-segment Priority/Importance Attractiveness Rural/Farmland Cost effective Rural Islands Independent Power Indonesia, and Security Thailand Military -NA- Buildings Microgrid Malaysia, Japan, Urban End User Communities Energy efficiency South Korea, Singapore Hospitals Industrial Manufacturing Energy efficiency New ZealandNote: For governments, the importance of microgrid technology is to improve efficiency and to includethe renewable energy sources. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 24
  25. 25. Microgrid Emerging Business Models Microgrid Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 25
  26. 26. Japan leads the pack, but other countries are exploring opportunitiesMarket Value Japan South Korea Australia Singapore Thailand New Zealand Malaysia Time Indonesia Development Growth Maturity Decline Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 26
  27. 27. Lack of standardization is a key barrier In APAC Japan, Australia and South Korea In APAC,Japan, Australia and South Korea APAC Japan, Australia, and South Korea1 are leading the Microgrid market. are the major markets for market. leading the Microgrid microgrid. The microgrid market is forecasted to grow at2 a CAGR of 39.8% during 2011 to 2017. Market is in nascent stage with no full scale implementation. Test projects by3 governments in collaboration with the private companies are underway. Government funding plays a key role in the4 development of microgrid projects. Technological barriers and lack of5 standardization are the critical challenges in the sector market Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 27
  28. 28. Frost & SullivanCorporate Overview 28
  29. 29. The Frost & Sullivan Story 29
  30. 30. What Makes Us Unique 30
  31. 31. Our Industry Coverage 31
  32. 32. Our Services 32
  33. 33. Our Global Footprint 40+ OfficesScanning the Globe for Opportunities and Innovation 33
  34. 34. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn,SlideShare, and Twitter 34
  35. 35. For Additional InformationDonna Jeremiah Jessie LohCorporate Communications Corporate Communications(603) .62045832 (65) 6890 Jessie.loh@frost.comCarrie LowCorporate Communications(603) 6240 35