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21st Singapore Pharmacy Congress:                             Industry Workshop    Innovations & opportunities:    Chronic...
Agenda•      Introduction•      Key Global and Asian trends•      Singapore in context•      Chronic diseases in Singapore...
ECONOMIC GROWTH<0000-00>                     3
Growing middle class is changing the mix in demand for healthcareservices• Creation of “healthcare elite”: those that can,...
AGING POPULATION<0000-00>                      5
Aging population will account for around 20% of the world population in2050<0000-00>                                      ...
By 2020, two-third of the Asia-pacific population over 65  years will have at least one chronic disease                   ...
SINGAPORE<0000-00>               8
Singapore’s rich and middle class is expected to grow           Distribution of population by income groups: 2006-2014(f) ...
Singapore has the fastest aging population in south-east Asia  • Singapore had the fastest ageing population (above 65 yea...
Chronic diseases account for two-third of total deaths in Singapore    Rank                 % of Total Deaths             ...
Cancer incidence is expected to continue to growNew cases of cancer in a year (’000) in the Asia-pacific                  ...
HEALTHCARE PARADIGM SHIFT<0000-00>                               13
Healthcare Paradigm Shift  A modern healthcare system is on the horizon, demanding a paradigm shift                  From....
FConsumer-centric care delivery model                                                             O       M               ...
FInnovation in hospital business models: Hospitals go virtual;                    O        Mdevelopment of community based...
FVirtual Hospitals: Shifting the Financial Gravity of the System                                                          ...
FConnected Health Driving New Access Solutions                                                                           O...
FConsumer health – health services come home…   O                                                   T                     ...
FThe future of healthcare cross industry fertilization   O       M                                                        ...
FInnovation in Hospital Business Models: Trends towards                                           O       Mspecialized car...
FThe 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To                   O          MHumans Definition of Health, W...
FHealth and Wellness: Shift in Healthcare Trends From                                                       O        MTrea...
FWhy Wellness?                                                                                                            ...
FShifting the Health Focus of the System                                                                                  ...
For Additional Information  Donna Jeremiah              Carrie Low  Director                    Executive  Corporate Commu...
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Frost & Sullivan: Innovation & Opportunities-Chronic Diseases & Community Care-Trends in Asia & Singapore

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Transcript of "Frost & Sullivan: Innovation & Opportunities-Chronic Diseases & Community Care-Trends in Asia & Singapore"

  1. 1. 21st Singapore Pharmacy Congress: Industry Workshop Innovations & opportunities: Chronic diseases & community care: Trends in Asia & Singapore July 2011 Dr. Milind Sabnis<0000-00> 1
  2. 2. Agenda• Introduction• Key Global and Asian trends• Singapore in context• Chronic diseases in Singapore• Future outlook of healthcare• Question & answer session<0000-00> 2
  3. 3. ECONOMIC GROWTH<0000-00> 3
  4. 4. Growing middle class is changing the mix in demand for healthcareservices• Creation of “healthcare elite”: those that can, will spend money out of pocket for elective procedures, executive and personalized levels of care.<0000-00> 4
  5. 5. AGING POPULATION<0000-00> 5
  6. 6. Aging population will account for around 20% of the world population in2050<0000-00> 6
  7. 7. By 2020, two-third of the Asia-pacific population over 65 years will have at least one chronic disease Healthcare Industry: Population Aged 65 and The Burden of Disease in elderly, Asia Pacific Above, (Asia Pacific), 2009-2020 400.0 12.0% Percentage of Aged 65 and Above to 350.0 10.0%Population (Million) 300.0 Total Population (%) 250.0 8.0% 200.0 6.0% 150.0 4.0% 100.0 50.0 2.0% - 0.0% 2010 2015 2020 Year Aged 65 and Above (Million) Percentage of Aged 65 and Above to Total Population (%) In 2010, 7.6% (241.7 million) of the Asia Pacific population was aged 65 and above. By 2020, this will be more than 9.7% (333.95) 65.2% of those aged 65+ have one chronic condition Source: WHO, Frost & Sullivan <0000-00> 7
  8. 8. SINGAPORE<0000-00> 8
  9. 9. Singapore’s rich and middle class is expected to grow Distribution of population by income groups: 2006-2014(f) No. of households (000) 2014e 550 567 336 2013e 560 563 314 Years 2012e 558 553 293 2011e 566 533 273 2010 587 501 254 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Annual earnings between US$10,000 and US$ 50,000 Annual earnings between US$50,000 and US$ 1 m Net wealth over US$1mSources: Frost & Sullivan Analysis., EIU, Singapore Department of Statistics e- estimate <0000-00> 9
  10. 10. Singapore has the fastest aging population in south-east Asia • Singapore had the fastest ageing population (above 65 years) in South east Asia in 2010 • By 2030, one in five residents will be 65 and above, as compared to one in 12 (2009) • By 2050, Singapore is projected to world’s 4th oldest population Singapore Population (in Mn) by Age Groups, 2006, 2010, 2014e In anticipation of 800,000 elderly 100% 0.8 Singaporeans by 2030, government 90% 1.1 1.4 80% policies encourage family and home- 0.8 70% 1.0 1.0 based care and provide access to 60% 0.8 community based services instead of 50% 0.9 1.1 institutionalized care 40% 0.8 0.8 30% 0.8 0.6 The aging population and associated 20% 0.7 0.7 diseases, together with smaller 10% 0.7 0.8 0.7 families could potentially lead to a 0% similar situation that Japan is facing, 2006(a) 2010(a) 2014 (f) with a need then to have healthcare 0-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55+ yrs services that enable the elderly population to live independently and 2006 2010 2014e receive care in and out of the hospital Total setting. Population 4.4m 5.1m 5.7mSources: Frost & Sullivan Analysis., WHO, Singapore Department of Statistics e- estimate <0000-00> 10
  11. 11. Chronic diseases account for two-third of total deaths in Singapore Rank % of Total Deaths 2007 2008 2009 1 Cancer 27.7 29.3 29.3 2 Ischaemic Heart Disease 19.8 20.1 19.2 3 Pneumonia 13.9 13.9 15.3 4 Cerebrovascular Disease (including stroke) 8.7 8.3 8 5 Accidents, Poisoning & Violence 6 5.8 5.7 6 Other Heart Diseases 4.3 4 4.4 7 Urinary Tract Infections 2.2 2.1 2.5 8 Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2.6 2.5 2.4 9 Nephritis, Nephrotic Syndrome & Nephrosis 2 2.1 2.3 10 Diabetes Mellitus 3.6 2.7 1.7 All Others 9.2 9.2 9.2 Total 100 100 100 Total number of Deaths 17140 17222 17101 Chronic diseases are likely to continue becoming the predominant disease burden in Singapore Source: MOH<0000-00> 11
  12. 12. Cancer incidence is expected to continue to growNew cases of cancer in a year (’000) in the Asia-pacific Number of Cancer Notifications by Year, 5,700 2004-2015 5,633 5,600 5,501 5,500 14000 13089 5,400 5,375 12228 12651 11424 11819 12000 10673 11042 5,300 5,249 9359 9863 10316 10000 9004 9037 5,200 5,124 8000 5,100 6000 5,000 4000 4,900 2000 4,800 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 At its present growth rate, the Ministry of Health estimates there will be 13,000 new cancer cases a year by 2015 In 2010, around 72,500 individuals were seeking treatment for cancer Source: Health Promotion Board<0000-00> 12
  13. 13. HEALTHCARE PARADIGM SHIFT<0000-00> 13
  14. 14. Healthcare Paradigm Shift A modern healthcare system is on the horizon, demanding a paradigm shift From... ...To Provider Centric Focus Patient Centric Centralized – Hospital Monitor De-Centralized – Shift to Community Invasive in general hospitals Treatment Less invasive in specialized hospitals Treating Sickness Objective Preventing Sickness – “Wellness” F O M T Source: Frost & Sullivan<0000-00> 14
  15. 15. FConsumer-centric care delivery model O M T Home as the Hub: The home and other local settings will grow significantly as a locale of choice for care delivery Delivery system will expand to include community and family resourcesIntegration: Medical services are integrated with wellness activities to provide overall care delivery Customization: At multiple levels (health plans, interaction with caregivers, individual care pathways, communications, etc.) Driven by patients<0000-00> 15
  16. 16. FInnovation in hospital business models: Hospitals go virtual; O Mdevelopment of community based care T Hospital based care Community based care Centralized model Decentralized model Patient overload Reduced patient load Increased costs Reduced cost Strain on health care resources Optimum utilization of health care resources<0000-00> 16
  17. 17. FVirtual Hospitals: Shifting the Financial Gravity of the System O M T100% Healthy, Independent Living Healthy, Independent Living Community Clinic Community Clinic HOME Chronic Disease Chronic Disease CARE Management Management Doctor’s Office Doctor’s Office Quality of life Assisted Living Assisted Living RESIDENTIAL Specialty Clinic Specialty Clinic CARE Skilled Nursing Skilled Nursing Facility Facility Community ACUTE Community Hospital Hospital CARE ICU ICU 0% $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 Cost of care per day <0000-00> 17
  18. 18. FConnected Health Driving New Access Solutions O M T Connected HealthRemote Patient Telehealth Consumer Health Hospital-based SystemsMonitoring •Total global market to • Market in the growth stage • Vertically integrated and•Overall (Global) annual reach $ 9 billion by 2012, diverse market led bycompound growth rate of • Globally, consumer health with projected 9.9% healthcare planning56% from year 2008 to sees 4% growth in 2009 to compound growth rate systems2009 reach US $169 million •Emerging market with expected rapid growth in the • Patients are connected• About 75 market players potentially more efficient next three years through Total Hospital•Fragmented and divers delivery of care Information System • Apple (thoughmarket nature makes it iPhone,iPAD)and Blackberry • Monitoring and diagnosisdifficult to place a market are moving in this direction to system are connectedvalue provide consumer wellness•E.g.. TeleStation by care through their healthcarePHILIPS Applications. Source: Frost & Sullivan<0000-00> 18
  19. 19. FConsumer health – health services come home… O T M<0000-00> 19
  20. 20. FThe future of healthcare cross industry fertilization O M T<0000-00> 20
  21. 21. FInnovation in Hospital Business Models: Trends towards O Mspecialized care delivery around specific therapeutic areas T General Hospital Focused Specialized Hospital Value Proposition: Value Proposition: Don’t know what’s wrong? Need care for a specific condition? – We can address any problem you bring – Specialists, experience, world-class facilities Traditional operations Specialized hospitals offering minimal invasive Long post operative length of stay surgeries/ day surgeries Reduces or eliminates length of stay<0000-00> 21
  22. 22. FThe 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To O MHumans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being T Mood Stress levels Mind Mental health Sense of optimism Attitude Security Safety Sight / vision Touch & feel Personal values Smell / breathing Sound Body Soul Personal fulfilment Self image / self Temperature actualization Wellness<0000-00> 22
  23. 23. FHealth and Wellness: Shift in Healthcare Trends From O MTreatment to Prevention TPrevention trends result in greater demand for areas such as weight management and functional foods and beverages Healthcare Spending Per Capita (2007, 2050) If current trends hold - by 2050, healthcare spending will double, claiming 20-30% of 20- GDP for some economies In most countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income which is unsustainable Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity Due to rising costs of healthcare, future spending will move away from treatment<0000-00> 23
  24. 24. FWhy Wellness? O M T 50% Percent of all diseases Medical Costs can be avoided and prevented by lifestyle changes Direct = 31% Indirect = 69% Only 31% of healthcare Lost Productivity: Medical Costs - Absenteeism expenditure in organization is - Presenteeism spent on direct medical costs Employee & Customer Workers Dissatisfaction: Compensation - Turnover + Temporary Staffing - Poor Quality 69% of medical costs are Salary Continuation Replacement Workers: due to productivity loss - Training Interim Employee - Administrative re-work 50% of all medical costs can be saved with integrated and comprehensive health 75% caused by Chronic Diseases that management. are preventable Source: An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of Chronic Disease, The Milken Institute Center for Health Economics<0000-00> 24
  25. 25. FShifting the Health Focus of the System O T M Early identification and prevention Prevention/Wellness Access to new forms of care delivery to improve patient knowledge, self-help and health Connection to benefits design to increase coverage for those services which prevent disease and improve health over long term Goal: Size of Impacted Population Keep Reducing administrative and clinical waste People Healthy Longer Goal: Disease/Care Manage Management or Mitigate Risk Goal: Diagnose and Reduce Goal: Treatment Move to Goal: Delay Self- Manage Goal: Managed Informed Decisions Healthy/ “At Risk” Undiagnosed Chronically Ill Chronically Ill End “Worried Well” Managed Unmanaged of Life Continuum of Care<0000-00> 25
  26. 26. For Additional Information Donna Jeremiah Carrie Low Director Executive Corporate Communications Corporate Communications Asia Pacific Asia Pacific +603 6204 5832 +603 6204 5910 djeremiah@frost.com carrie.low@frost.com Jessie Loh Manager Corporate Communications Asia Pacific +65 6890 0942 jessie.loh@frost.com<0000-00> 26
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