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Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Market Outlook
 

Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Market Outlook

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Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Outlook Briefing, presented by Vivek Vaidya, Vice President Automotive Practice - Asia Pacific, Frost & Sullivan at the 2013 Indonesian Automotive Market ...

Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Outlook Briefing, presented by Vivek Vaidya, Vice President Automotive Practice - Asia Pacific, Frost & Sullivan at the 2013 Indonesian Automotive Market Outlook Brtiefing, 17 January 2013 in Jakarta.

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    Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Market Outlook Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Market Outlook Presentation Transcript

    • Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013 Presented by Vivek VaidyaVice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific 17th January 2013
    • CONTENTS Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012 Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013 2
    • Indonesia hit the 1 million unit volume the first time in the history Total Industry Volume (TIV), 2011 and 2012 1.450.000 1.116.000 894.164 794.081 600.123 618.000 2011 2012 (f) Indonesia Thailand Malaysia• Indonesia surpassed 1-million unit sales and important landmark to gain importance globally• Thailand regained number 1 position, after spectacular recovery from flood-crisis in 2011• Malaysia in the other hand were keeping the similar volume with the tightening finance policy Source: AAF, Gaikindo, MAA, TAIA (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan Analysis. Note: All figures are rounded. 3 3
    • Indonesia : Growth in 2012 supported by strong economic factors, successful new model launches and postponement of fuel price increase Total Industry Volume (TIV), Indonesia (2010-2012) Drivers Total 764,710 894,164 1,116,000 (e) • Positive domestic economic environment 16.9% 24.7% • Postponement of subsidized fuel restriction and 335.500 price increment • Increasing buying power from middle class segment 292.218 29.6% 223.235 30.9% • Introduction of many new car models 780.500 Restraints 541.475 601.945 11.2% 14.6% • Increment on down payment minimum rate • Partial restriction of subsidized fuel to CV segment 2010 2011 2012 (f) • Slowing down of export commodities and mining industry Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Monthly Sales Trend (2010 – 2012) 120.000 100.000 2010 80.000Units 60.000 2011 40.000 2012 20.000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan Analysis. Note: All figures are rounded. 4 4
    • Indonesia : MPV and Hatchback (4X2) remained the largest segment, segment shares virtually unchanged from 2011 Passenger Vehicle Monthly Sales, Indonesia (2012) Passenger Vehicle Market Share Festivity 4X4 Sedan Enforcement of Indonesia Int’l holidays higher minimum Motor Show 2012 1,0% 4,4% down payment 100.000 80.000Monthly sales by segments (units) 70.000 4X2 2012 Total Monthly Sales (Units) 60.000 10.000 4X2 50.000 Sedan 94,6% 40.000 4X4 Sedan 30.000 0,9% 1.000 4,5% 20.000 4X4 10.000 100 0 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total PV Sedan 4X2 4X4 4X2 94,6% Source: Gaikindo(2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis. Data is for Passenger Vehicles only. Note: All figures are rounded. 5 5
    • Indonesia : Growth rate in each segment was spectacular, with highestvolume growth in 4X2 segment Passenger Vehicle Segment sales – Indonesia, 2011 – 2012(f) Vehicle Segment 2011 Total Sales 2012(f) Total Sales % growth (2011-2012) Sedan 26,622 34,100 28.1% 4X2 569,802 738,600 29.6% 4X4 5,521 7,800 41.3% Total PV 601,945 780,500 29.1%• 4X2 and 4X4 segments – successful model launches drove the segment volumes• New models : Suzuki Ertiga, Nissan Evalia, Chevrolet Spin, Honda Brio• Upgrades : Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia, Honda CR-V etc.• Sedan segment recovered from last year drop as the part supply from Thailand and Japan recovered, boosting sales of low and medium sedan category (alike of Vios, City, Civic and Camry)Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis.6 6
    • Indonesia – commercial vehicle : Pickup and truck sales growth supported by manufacturing and retail sectors Commercial Vehicle Monthly Sales, Indonesia (2012) Vehicle Segment % growth (2011-2012) Export and someMonthly sales by segments (units) Festivity industry slowing 35.000 down Bus 2.4% holidays Pickup/Truck 15.4% 30.000 Double Cab 8.3% 25.000 Total CV 14.8% 20.000 Passenger Vehicle Market Share 15.000 Double Bus Cab 1,3% 5,7% Double Bus 10.000 Cab 1,4% 6,1% 5.000 0 2012 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Pickup Pickup/ /Truck Total CV Bus Pickup/Truck Double Cab Truck 92,5% 93,0% Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis. Data is for commercial vehicles only Note: All figures are rounded. 7 7
    • Toyota, Suzuki and Honda gain market shares while Mitsubishi and Daihatsulose market share despite volume growth Vehicle Market Share by OEMs (2010-2012) 764,710 894,164 1,116,000 (f) • Toyota retains market leadership with 8,5% 9,5% 9,2% market share of about 36% Others 3,1% 3,2% 3,0% Isuzu • Market share up by 1% as compared to 2011 4,9% 6,3% 6,0% Nissan due to successful launch of all new Avanza 8,0% 5,1% 6,2% Honda • Daihatsu has shown good volume growth 9,3% 10,6% 11,3% due to strong performance of Xenia but the Suzuki market share drops by 1% 13,9% 15,0% 13,3% • Suzuki gains 1.1% market share with the high Mitsubishi sales of its new MPV model Ertiga. 15,5% 15,6% 14,6% • Honda gains 1% share due to strong showing Daihatsu of Brio and new CR-V • Mitsubishi, in the other hand, has lost 1.5% market share. 36,7% 34,7% 36,3% Toyota • Mitsubishi may decide to focus on passenger car segment a lot more to reverse the trend in 2013 2010 2011 2012Source: various media (2012 ytd Nov) Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: All figures are rounded8 8
    • Healthy domestic led economic growth supported the automotive sector toincrease its volumes GDP Growth Rates, 2009- 2012(f) 2009: 4.6% 2010: 6.2% 2011: 6.5% 2012(f): 6.2% 3,8% 3,5% 3,4% 3,2% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,3% 1,7% 1,9% 1,6% 1,4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 09 10 11 -1,3% 12 -1,4% -2,4% • Indonesia ‘s economic growth expected to Economic Activity Breakdown, 2012(f) be slightly above 6% Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and • This is marginal decline as compared to Others Mining and 25,1% Fishery Quarrying 2011 due to the slowing export demand for 15,1% 12,1% commodity and restriction of mining Trade, Hotel product export and Restaurant Manufacturing 13,7% 23,7% • Manufacturing sector still remaining the Construction 10,3% biggest contributor; construction sector saw high growth in 2012Source: Central Bureau of Statistic (2012 ytd Q3); Analysis: Frost & Sullivan9 9
    • Model launches in 2012: most covering the biggest segment 4x2 with various body type – MPV, city car, SUV MPV & SUV (~12 new models) Sedan & City Cars (~7) CV Toyota Suzuki Suzuki Honda All New Camry Mega Carry Ertiga All New CR-V Extra Honda Toyota Mitsubishi All New Civic Mazda Nav1 Outlander New BT-50 Suzuki All New Swift Chevrolet Mazda Volkswagen All New Biante New Touareg Colorado Honda Brio Nissan Audi Ford Evalia Q3 Mitsubishi New Ranger Mirage Chevrolet Hyundai Isuzu Spin New Santa Fe Ford Giga F-series All New Focus Volkswagen Suzuki PeugeotNew Caravelle New Grand 208 Vitara (facelift) 10
    • CONTENTS Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012 Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013 11
    • Economic Outlook 2013 : GDP growth expected to be about 6% fuelled bydomestic consumption Economic Growth Rate, 2009 – 2012 (f)10,0% Real GDP Agriculture Mining 5,0% Manufacturing Construction Trade, Hotel, & Restaurant 0,0% Others 2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f) • GDP growth is expected to remain stable around 5 – 6% Real GDP • Will rely strongly on domestic economy and the inflowing investment • Still the biggest contributing sector Manufacturing • Shall see some growth with the condition of realization happening in 2013 from potential investment Growing • With the growing domestic economy, the possibly growing sectors would be the sectors contributing much to the domestic economy, likely will be constructions; sectors agriculture, livestock, forestry & fishery; electricity, gas and water supply12 12
    • ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) initiative is likely to benefit IndonesiaAreas Level Impact Largest market in ASEAN. The high growth phase is expected to continue. AEC will notSales be impacting growth as such. The local manufacturing is likely to see a big jump as Indonesia becomes moreProduction attractive as a regional hub for production Increase in competitive activity as Indonesia becomes more attractive in terms of aMarket Concentration large market, lower costs and regional access Increase in number of dealers as new players enter the market and tackle theRetail Network geographic complexity of the market Exports are likely to grow as AEC and FTAs will make it easier for OEMs to set up baseVehicle Exports and supply to other markets The relatively ‘under-developed’ vendor base is likely to get a boost as more OEMsSupplier Base come in to set up assembly and cater to the region Very favorable No impact Less favorable13
    • Indonesia Auto 2013: Economic-driven marketIndonesia market growth will rely on economical driversIndonesia’s growth in automotive sector in recent years has largely being impacted by the nature and longterm factors. They have driven the market previously, and still will drive the market on 2013 onwards. • Positive growing economy, has been above 6%, and predicted to be still at least 6% for 2013 Good economy • Stable inflation, exchange rate, lending rate • Some minor issues from regulations arising and corruption cases; but so far have not been Stable politics impacting much to automotive and the market • Anticipation in 2013 for 2014 general election • Along better economy, arising the population of middle class, supported by huge young Growing population middle class • Indonesia is predicted to have golden productivity period up to 2025; which will create more potential middle classes Increasing • Proven by increasing domestic consumption income level • 2013 economy may as well strongly rely to its high domestic consumption • Indonesia’s growing economy is still very attractive for more investment Continuous • Automotive sector investment reach 70% growth rate, valued more than US$ 1.3 billion as of investment 3rd quarter of 2012 flow • 2013 investment flow is expected to still grow around 30%14
    • Indonesia Auto 2013: 6 key factors would impact growth in 2013 • The official announcement of the program might boost the market as there will be LEC-LCGC Program more affordable vehicles as options • Official electricity tariffs increment taken place Rollback of subsidies • Options of restriction or price increment on fuel Increasing standard • Ever-high increment on minimum labor wages might impact the production cost of labor minimum wages supplying industry • Enforcement of minimum down payment to sharia financing by April 2013 will Vehicle financing policy limit finance options to market • Increment of higher standard to Euro3 or 4 might need procedural cost, impacting Emission standard to higher vehicle selling price Increasing vehicle tax • Possible increment on tax: title transfer fee, progressive tax or luxury tax rate increasing ownership cost15 15
    • Frost & Sullivan projects TIV to reach 1.2 million with 7.5% growth rate Total Industry Volume, 2012-2013 (Indonesia) TIV : TIV : 1,200,000 1,116,000 Commercial Vehicles Commercial Vehicles 360.000 335.500 7.3% Passenger Vehicles Passenger Vehicles 780.500 840.000 7.6% 2012 2013 (f)16 16
    • Assumptions for 1.2 million TIV forecast Positive Factors • Stable economic and political conditions in Indonesia • Investments in construction and infrastructure continue at the same rate • Timely implementation of LCE-LCGC program Negative Factors • Minimal impact of roll back of fuel subsidy and vehicle finance policy • Uncertainties in global economy17
    • Passenger Vehicles would continue to grow to reach 840,000 units in 2013 Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013Passenger Vehicles Passenger Vehicles : Passenger vehicles : 4X4 7% 840,000 780,500 Sedan 10% 4X2 7% 2012 2013 (f) • 4X2 segment will remain the biggest segment as further market development shall be done for models launched in 2012 where most of them are in category 4X2. • 4X2 segment would remain the main driver in 2013 as well due to favorable duty regime and impending LCGC launches which would be in the same segment 18 18
    • Commercial Vehicles market size would touch 360,000 in 2013 Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013Commercial Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Commercial Vehicle : : 360,000 355,500 Bus 6% Double 8% Cab Pickup 7% /Truck 2012 2013 (f) • Pick-up and small trucks would grow due to growth in manufacturing and retail sector, which is largely driven by consumption in domestic sector • Heavy trucks likely to grow on strong performance of construction and infrastructure sector which is largely driven by investments in this sector 19 19
    • Conclusions Indonesian Automotive market beat the predictions to reach 1 million units in 2012 Indonesia automotive 2013 will likely go up slow to 1.2 million units if economic conditions remain stable, investment flow and infrastructure continues, there is timely announcement of LEC-LCGC program and impact of fuel subsidy roll back and vehicle financing policy is minimal However, stringent policies such as fuel subsidy roll back, vehicle financing are implemented or if there is slowdown in global economic conditions volumes may decline and slip below 1 million units in 201320 20