Flying High on Winds of Change: Role of Wind Energy Legislation in Developing EconomiesSwetaRamchandran, Research Analyst Economic Research & Analytics DivisionEnergy & Power Systems October 07, 2009

Focus PointsGlobal Wind Energy MarketWind Legislation in Developing EconomiesRanking of Countries Based on Emerging OpportunitiesDrivers Directing Global Wind Energy Market Growth Opportunities in Global Wind Energy Market

Global Economy: Effects and Impact of Economic Downturn in 2008-2009 on Emerging EconomiesGlobal financial and economic crisis results in recession RussiaDrop in oil prices due to slower growth in Europe and USPolandEuropean banks withdrew investments from eastern Europe, diminished exports MexicoSlowdown of funds remittance from USBrazilWithdrawal of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) inflows, currency depreciation, slowdown in export of oil and other commoditiesChinaFall in exports, reduction in trade and investmentIndiaIndustrial production slowed down, fall in demand and exports3

Global Economy: Emerging Economies and Stimulus MeasuresMore than $2.0 trillion in 2009 via fiscal stimulus injected by Governments worldwide to spur aggregate demandPolandFiscal measures- Additional fiscal spending, additional credit. June 2009- Unemployment dropping and overall industry climate indicators and trade improvingQ1 2009 (yoy)- 1.7 % Q2 2009(yoy)-1.4%RussiaFiscal measures – cuts in interest rates and strengthening of financial sector and support to real economy. June 2009- Unemployment falling, investment and retail sales risingQ1, 2009 (yoy) – (9.7%) Q2, 2009 (yoy) – (10.9%)MexicoLower interest rates are less effective in jump-starting economy. Dramatic fall in tourism.Q1 2009 (yoy)- (8.4%)Q2 2009 (yoy) – (9.7%)ChinaStimulus package-$586 bnMedical care and Education - $5.8 bnR&D and Innovative Projects - $23.4 bnNew Medical Reform Plan - $123.00 bnQ1, 2009 - 7.1 % Q2,2009 - 7.9% Brazil Increased lending by state banks, Central Bank support for corporate foreign debt and monetary easing to partly offset impact of global slow downQ1, 2009 (yoy) – (1.8%) Q2, 2009 (yoy)– (1.2%) IndiaThree stimulus packages with tax cuts, Cut in Reserve Bank of India repo rate and fall in Cash Reserve Ratio. June 2009 - Business and investment improving. Economic growth to gain momentum in second half of 2009Q1, 2009 - 5.8% Q2, 2009 - 6.0%

Effects and Impact of Economic Downturn: Global Energy Market in 2009High capital intensive energy industry faces dip in future flow of investment due to weakened conditions in credit availability and commodities marketBeyond 2009, the road to global economic growth and recovery to be muted due to growing fiscal deficits even as world economies take to development of renewable energy including windEastern EuropeEU and Role of European Economic Recovery PlanAsia PacificChina: To spend $585.5 billion stimulus by 2010. Specific to alternative energy, a *$440.0 billion has been planned to focus on boosting green energy via solar and windIndia: No direct stimulus allocated for energy sector across the three stimulus packages aiming at monetary easingSouth Korea: $50.0 billion stimulus package supports expansion of the use of renewable energy and green technologyNorth America U.S: $787.20 billion includes varied grants, loan guarantees, and grants-in-lieu-of-tax-credits encouraging renewable energy including wind energyCanada: $62.0 billion stimulus under Canada’s Economic Action Plan includes resources for enhance energy efficiency, Green Infrastructure Fund (GIF) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies

High capital intensive energy industry faces dip in future flow of investment due to weakened conditions in credit

Beyond 2009, the road to global economic growth and recovery to be muted due to growing fiscal deficits even as

EU and Role of European Economic Recovery Plan

China: To spend $585.5 billion stimulus by 2010. Specific to alternative energy, a *$440.0 billion has been planned to focus on boosting green energy via solar and wind

India: No direct stimulus allocated for energy sector across the three stimulus packages aiming at monetary easing

South Korea: $50.0 billion stimulus package supports expansion of the use of renewable energy and green technology

U.S: $787.20 billion includes varied grants, loan guarantees, and grants-in-lieu-of-tax-credits encouraging renewable energy including wind energy

Canada: $62.0 billion stimulus under Canada’s Economic Action Plan includes resources for enhance energy efficiency, Green Infrastructure Fund (GIF) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies

Global Wind Energy Market: Market DynamicsEnergy security, climate change and oil and gas price volatility makes wind power one of the fastest growing forms of energy generationLong run demand for electricity high making wind energy a vital source for generationGreen energy production has been increasing post Kyoto Protocol Key FeaturesWind Energy StatisticsEnd of 2008 Global total installed capacity: 120,798 MWGlobal new installed capacity: 27,051MW Investments in turbine installation increased to $47.00 billion (2008) from $37.00 billion (2007)Key ParticipantsIndependent power owners Independent project developers Original equipment manufacturersComponent manufacturesSub-suppliersFor an investor, Investment in wind power market based on geo-political risk, growing energy demand and national greening initiatives Specifically, focus is to understand the greening legislative framework prevalent across: India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Czech Republic, and PolandNeed of the Hour

Energy security, climate change and oil and gas price volatility makes wind power one of the fastest growing forms of energy generation

Long run demand for electricity high making wind energy a vital source for generation

Green energy production has been increasing post Kyoto Protocol

End of 2008

Global total installed capacity: 120,798 MW

Global new installed capacity: 27,051MW

Investments in turbine installation increased to $47.00 billion (2008) from $37.00 billion (2007)

Independent power owners

Independent project developers

Original equipment manufacturers

Component manufactures

Sub-suppliers

For an investor,

Investment in wind power market based on geo-political risk, growing energy demand and national greening initiatives

Specifically, focus is to understand the greening legislative framework prevalent across: India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Czech Republic, and Poland

Global Installed Wind Power Capacity in 2008Germany: 23,903 MWDenmark: 3,180 MWUnited Kingdom: 3,241 MW`France: 3,404 MWPortugal: 2,862 MWChina:12,210 MWSpain: 16,754 MWUnited States: 25,170 MWIndia:9,645 MWItaly: 3,736 MWKey ObservationsBeginning of 2009 saw United States, Germany, Spain, China, and India emerge as top nations in terms of total installed capacityIn 2010, Frost & Sullivan expects slower global growth in wind energy market due to tightened credit environmentSource: Global Wind Energy Council 2008 and Frost and Sullivan

Beginning of 2009 saw United States, Germany, Spain, China, and India emerge as top nations in terms of total installed capacity

In 2010, Frost & Sullivan expects slower global growth in wind energy market due to tightened credit environment

Wind Legislation in Developing EconomiesAsiaIndia, China, Pakistan and BangladeshEastern EuropePoland and Czech Republic

Need for Wind Energy LegislationWind Energy Capacity, (Global), 2005- 2015Source: Frost & SullivanKey ObservationsFrost and Sullivan predicts that wind power market is expected to grow from 2008 to 2015 at a compound annual growth rate(CAGR) of 22.1 percent in terms of installed capacity, reaching 490,804 MW at the end of this period.No uniform worldwide legislation exists to promote wind energy for electricity generationStrong legislative and fiscal climates stimulate wind energy generation in US, EU, and ChinaAt country level, wind energy generation seeks a legislative framework backed by fiscal incentives

Frost and Sullivan predicts that wind power market is expected to grow from 2008 to 2015 at a compound annual growth rate

(CAGR) of 22.1 percent in terms of installed capacity, reaching 490,804 MW at the end of this period.

No uniform worldwide legislation exists to promote wind energy for electricity generation

Strong legislative and fiscal climates stimulate wind energy generation in US, EU, and China

At country level, wind energy generation seeks a legislative framework backed by fiscal incentives

Wind Legislation in IndiaIndian legislative framework does not define the amount of electricity that could to be generatedvia renewable energySection 3 (1) of the Electricity act of 2003 defines power development and encourages wind power generationState Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) set Renewable Portfolio StandardsIndian Integrated Energy Policy of 2006Legislative HighlightsAt the Central level: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) At the State Level: SERCs Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA), Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET), and Indian Wind Turbine Manufactures Association (IWTMA)NodalAgenciesVarying Incentives and tariff norms across states for wind energy generationUnique renewable portfolio standards and feed-in-tariff systems in placeOpen FDI, income tax breaks, concessional import duty on specified wind turbine parts, loans through IREDANational Wind Power Program, Generation Based Incentive (GBI) Scheme, Small Wind Energy and Hybrid Systems‘ promote wind energy developmentNational Action Plan on Climate Change and CERC in tariff regulations for electricityIncentives and Other Policy MeasuresKey PlayersSuzlon, Enercon, Vestas RRB India Ltd

Section 3 (1) of the Electricity act of 2003 defines power development and encourages wind power generation

State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) set Renewable Portfolio Standards

Indian Integrated Energy Policy of 2006

At the Central level: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)

At the State Level: SERCs

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA), Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET),

Varying Incentives and tariff norms across states for wind energy generation

Unique renewable portfolio standards and feed-in-tariff systems in place

Open FDI, income tax breaks, concessional import duty on specified wind turbine parts, loans through IREDA

National Wind Power Program, Generation Based Incentive (GBI) Scheme, Small Wind Energy and Hybrid

National Action Plan on Climate Change and CERC in tariff regulations for electricity

Suzlon, Enercon, Vestas RRB India Ltd

Wind Legislation in ChinaThe Chinese legal framework encourages wind energy generation via national level renewable energy law Chinese Renewable Energy (RE) Law passed in 2005 identifies non-fossil sources of energy including windGrid operators to purchase resources from registered renewable energy producersNational Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) had set a 2010 wind energy target of 5 GW, which the country achieved in 2007National Mid and Long-Term Development Plan and Clean Production Promotion Law and Renewable Energy Law (2005) encourages renewable energy indirectlyLegislative HighlightsNodalAgenciesNDRC organizes and implements the national, economic and social development strategiesNDRC-backed National Energy Commission (NEC) has been coordinating national energy-related policy since 2008Incentives and Other Policy MeasuresDifferentiated wind energy tariffs in NDRC’s new program issued in July 2009, RE law- backed varied incentives and tax status for wind especially for Chinese domestic producers A ‘10 GW Size Wind Base Programme’ (Wind Base) developed by the NEC identifies potential wind energy sites capable of generating more than 10 GW of installed capacity per site by 2020Key PlayersAmerican Superconductor, Suzlon, GE, Goldwind Science and Technology, Sinovel Wind Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co and Dongfang Electric Corp

Chinese Renewable Energy (RE) Law passed in 2005 identifies non-fossil sources of energy including wind

Grid operators to purchase resources from registered renewable energy producers

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) had set a 2010 wind energy target of 5 GW,

National Mid and Long-Term Development Plan and Clean Production Promotion Law and Renewable Energy

NDRC organizes and implements the national, economic and social development strategies

NDRC-backed National Energy Commission (NEC) has been coordinating national energy-related policy

Differentiated wind energy tariffs in NDRC’s new program issued in July 2009,

RE law- backed varied incentives and tax status for wind especially for Chinese domestic producers

A ‘10 GW Size Wind Base Programme’ (Wind Base) developed by the NEC identifies potential wind energy sites

American Superconductor, Suzlon, GE, Goldwind Science and Technology, Sinovel Wind Co., Ltd., Xinjiang

Wind Legislation in PakistanPakistan’s weak energy policy for harnessing renewable energy for electricitygeneration makes wind energy incentive driven'Policy for Power Generation Projects Year- 2002'Alternative Energy Development Board’s (AEDB) aim is to generate 9,700 MW through renewable energy technologies by 2030Medium-term Development Frame Work (MTDF), from 2005 to 2010, a five year plan that also covers the importance of renewable energy)Legislative HighlightsNodalAgenciesAEDB National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET)Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in Pakistan (1994) 'Policy for Power Generation Projects Year- 2002‘ suggests a two-part tariff structure consisting of fixed capacity and variable energy component indirectly encouraging wind energy participants'Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation' (issued in 2006) and concept 'Wind Risk CoverageIncentives for renewable energy based power projects include assured grid connection, a guaranteed market offering, mandatory purchase of electricity. Production incentives include a production bonus payment to the IPP, earning carbon credits by registering for CERsIncentives and Other Policy MeasuresKey PlayersZorlu Enerji Group

'Policy for Power Generation Projects Year- 2002'

Alternative Energy Development Board’s (AEDB) aim is to generate 9,700 MW through renewable energy

Medium-term Development Frame Work (MTDF), from 2005 to 2010, a five year plan that also covers

AEDB

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)

Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET)

Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in Pakistan (1994)

'Policy for Power Generation Projects Year- 2002‘ suggests a two-part tariff structure consisting of fixed capacity and

'Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation' (issued in 2006) and concept 'Wind Risk

Incentives for renewable energy based power projects include assured grid connection, a guaranteed market

Zorlu Enerji Group

Wind Legislation in BangladeshNo separate legislation defines the need for wind energy for electricity generation in BangladeshNational Energy Policy (NEP) (1996) ‘ensures’ optimum development of all the indigenous energy sources including windPrivate Power Generation Policy (1996)Renewable Energy Policy formulated in 2008Legislative HighlightsNodalAgenciesBangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA) and Rural Electrification Board (REB)A body called ‘Renewable Energy Development’Incentives and Other Policy MeasuresRenewable energy project investors both in public and private sectors shall be exempted from corporate income tax for a period of 15 yearsOthers include exemptions from corporate tax for 15 years, low-interest loans and a cap of 3.0 % on import duty and value-added tax.Key PlayersHigh potential for existing wind power players

National Energy Policy (NEP) (1996) ‘ensures’ optimum development of all the indigenous energy sources

Private Power Generation Policy (1996)

Renewable Energy Policy formulated in 2008

Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)

Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA) and Rural Electrification Board (REB)

A body called ‘Renewable Energy Development’

Renewable energy project investors both in public and private sectors shall be exempted from corporate income

Others include exemptions from corporate tax for 15 years, low-interest loans and a cap of 3.0 % on

High potential for existing wind power players

Wind Legislation in Developing EU Countries: Poland and Czech RepublicAt the EU level, complete flexibility is given to each Member State in deciding their preferred 'mix' of renewable energy including that of windRES Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources By March 2010, each Member State to prepare and present a National Action Plan (NAP) to EU Commission By 2020, 20% of electricity generation from renewable energy (of which wind energy to contribute 12%) EU directive requires Poland and Czech Republic to achieve 15% and 13% respectively of its final energy consumption from renewable energy by 2020Role of EUPolandCzech RepublicLegislative HighlightsPolish Energy Law Polish Building LawAct No 180/2005 of the Czech Republic legislation implements the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sourceNodalAgenciesEnergy Regulatory Office’ (ERU)Ministry of Industry and TradeMinistry of Economy RES driven by green certificates rather than the Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) systemSubsidies and preferential credits for RES projects provided by the National Fund for Environment Protection and Water ManagementRole of Natura 2000 Poland’s Energy Policy up to 2030Choice of selecting between a feed-in-tariff or a green bonus A guarantee of revenue per unit of electricity produced over a 15-year period as of the date a plant is put into operation exists100.0% property tax reduction on certain renewable technologies ‘State program for energy saving and use of renewable energy sources’ Onshore wind energy investors are entitled for 15 years of support under feed in tariff mechanismIncentives and Other Policy MeasuresKey PlayersEnercon, GE Energy, Vestas, Gamesa

RES Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources

By March 2010, each Member State to prepare and present a National Action Plan (NAP) to EU Commission

By 2020, 20% of electricity generation from renewable energy (of which wind energy to contribute 12%)

EU directive requires Poland and Czech Republic to achieve 15% and 13% respectively of its final energy consumption

Polish Energy Law

Polish Building Law

Act No 180/2005 of the Czech Republic legislation implements

Energy Regulatory Office’ (ERU)

Ministry of Industry and Trade

Ministry of Economy

RES driven by green certificates rather than

Subsidies and preferential credits for RES

Role of Natura 2000

Poland’s Energy Policy up to 2030

Choice of selecting between a feed-in-tariff or a green bonus

A guarantee of revenue per unit of electricity produced over

100.0% property tax reduction on certain renewable

‘State program for energy saving and use of renewable energy

Onshore wind energy investors are entitled for 15 years of

Enercon, GE Energy, Vestas, Gamesa

Growth Opportunities in the Wind Energy Sector: Roadmap Beyond 2009Lower demand for energy, fluctuating energy prices, weak exchange rates, and less credit availability will make the economic recovery of the global wind energy sector sluggish in 2010CEEEurope's offshore installed wind power capacity to grow from 1.9 GW (2009) to 40.0 GW (2020) Poland and Czech Republic to look at enhancing wind power generation as: Poland to achieve minimum share of electricity from RES from 3.6% (in 2006) to 7.5% (in 2010), and 14.0 % (in 2020). Wind energy generation accounts for 463MW (Beginning of 2009)Czech Republic’s share of RES in electricity to grow from around 4.0 % (at the end of 2008) to 13.0 % (by 2020). Wind energy generation accounts for 150MW (Beginning of 2009)ChinaLess than 1.0% of electricity supply comes from wind energy in 2009Installed wind capacity target to reach 30.0 GW by 2020 making renewable energy supply 40.0% of the energy market by 2050From being a world leader in the manufacturing of micro and small wind turbines in 2009, China to enter large wind turbine production market to build its currently underdeveloped transmission system BangladeshExpected to address issues concerning lack of regulation defining the tariff norms as being a new entrant into the renewable energy marketPakistan700.0 MW of wind power by 2010, 3,000.0 MW by 2020, and 9,700.0 MW by 2030Overhaul of existing energy policy to solve load shedding problemIndirectly, greater exploitation of nations’ wind corridor via incentives can be expectedIndiaFrom 9,645.0 MW (beginning of 2009) of installed wind capacity, India to achieve a total wind power capacity of 10,500.0 MW (ongoing) by 2012Government to continue with fiscal incentives to encourage wind energy participants

Europe's offshore installed wind power capacity to grow from 1.9 GW (2009) to 40.0 GW (2020)

Poland and Czech Republic to look at enhancing

Poland to achieve minimum share of electricity from RES from 3.6% (in 2006) to 7.5% (in 2010), and 14.0 % (in 2020). Wind energy generation accounts for 463MW (Beginning of 2009)

Czech Republic’s share of RES in electricity to grow from around 4.0 % (at the end of 2008) to 13.0 % (by 2020). Wind energy generation accounts for 150MW (Beginning of 2009)

Less than 1.0% of electricity supply comes from wind energy in 2009

Installed wind capacity target to reach 30.0 GW by 2020 making renewable energy supply 40.0% of the energy market by 2050

From being a world leader in the manufacturing of micro and small wind turbines in 2009, China to enter large

Expected to address issues concerning lack of regulation defining the tariff norms as being a new entrant into the renewable energy market

700.0 MW of wind power by 2010, 3,000.0 MW by 2020, and 9,700.0 MW by 2030

Overhaul of existing energy policy to solve load shedding problem

Indirectly, greater exploitation of nations’ wind corridor via incentives can be expected

From 9,645.0 MW (beginning of 2009) of installed wind capacity, India to achieve a total wind power capacity of 10,500.0 MW (ongoing) by 2012

Government to continue with fiscal incentives to encourage wind energy participants

Ranking of Countries Based on Emerging OpportunitiesGlobal Total Installed Wind Power Capacity, 2009*Note: * The figures are estimatesSource: by Frost & SullivanRanking of Specific Economies based on Qualitative Indicators**Note:1.** Ranking based on economic growth expected between 2010-2012, political and legislative environment supporting future wind energy development 2. Green indicates positive environment Orange indicates mixed environment Red indicates scope for major overhaul

Drivers Directing Global Wind Energy Market Positive fiscal climate such as incentives for feed in tariffs, subsidies for wind power generation, programs (such as Foreign direct investment, income tax breaks, easy available credit)Drivers directing global wind energy market: Assessing existing national electricity policies and electricity supply mixes in potential wind energy nations of Asia and East EuropeIncreasing population levels in some Asian economies to change trends in energy demand- and supply mixGrowth in wind energy driven by increased global uncertainties regarding steady supplies of conventional and indigenous power resources like oil and natural gasGlobally, increased awareness concerning environmental, ecological, and geopolitical risks surrounding generating electricity to lead to drive wind energy market

Positive fiscal climate such as incentives for feed in tariffs, subsidies for wind power generation, programs (such as Foreign direct investment, income tax breaks, easy available credit)

Drivers directing global wind energy market:

Assessing existing national electricity policies and electricity supply mixes in potential wind energy nations of Asia and East Europe

Increasing population levels in some Asian economies to change trends in energy demand- and supply mix

Growth in wind energy driven by increased global uncertainties regarding steady supplies of conventional and indigenous power resources like oil and natural gas

Globally, increased awareness concerning environmental, ecological, and geopolitical risks surrounding generating electricity to lead to drive wind energy market

Growth Opportunities in Global Wind Energy MarketDomestic manufacturing of turbines including design, installation, operation and associated wind energy services to emerge (Globally)Integration of the wind energy with electricity grids to cause increased demand for specialized manpower resources for operating grid systems (in East Europe and Asia)Demand for micro wind turbines and technological databases to emerge (in East Europe and Asia)Turbine and tower market to witness private sector collaboration and additional capital investments (in Asia)Innovation and development expected in turbine design, gearboxes, generators, and larger capacity machines (in Asia aiming at rural electrification)Demand for energy-efficient renewable energy technologies such as growth in technology option called compressed air energy storage (CAES) aiding large scale storage of wind energy (in Asia)Service offerings such as repairs, replacement, and other operations and maintenance related aspects concerning wind power component (in India and China)Reviewing investment in newer entrants such as Pakistan and Bangladesh that are low in energy supply when compared to actual electricity demand

Domestic manufacturing of turbines including design, installation, operation and associated wind energy services to emerge (Globally)

Integration of the wind energy with electricity grids to cause increased demand for specialized manpower resources for operating grid systems (in East Europe and Asia)

Demand for micro wind turbines and technological databases to emerge (in East Europe and Asia)

Turbine and tower market to witness private sector collaboration and additional capital investments (in Asia)

Innovation and development expected in turbine design, gearboxes, generators, and larger capacity machines (in Asia aiming at rural electrification)

Demand for energy-efficient renewable energy technologies such as growth in technology option called compressed air energy storage (CAES) aiding large scale storage of wind energy (in Asia)

Service offerings such as repairs, replacement, and other operations and maintenance related aspects concerning wind power component (in India and China)

Reviewing investment in newer entrants such as Pakistan and Bangladesh that are low in energy supply when compared to actual electricity demand

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