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Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market
 

Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market

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An analyst briefing presentation delivered by Vishwas Shankar and Anjan Hemanth Kumar of Frost & Sullivan's automotive & transportation practice.

An analyst briefing presentation delivered by Vishwas Shankar and Anjan Hemanth Kumar of Frost & Sullivan's automotive & transportation practice.

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    Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market Presentation Transcript

    • Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision: Product, Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst Anjan Hemanth Kumar, Team Leader Automotive & Transportation
    • Vishwas Shankar Functional Expertise Specific functional expertise in: • Competitive intelligence and benchmarking • Market analysis and business opportunity assessment • OEM strategy on new products market entry and product price positioning Industry Expertise Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives • Electric vehicles and technologies • Microcars What I Bring to the Team • Understanding of the electric vehicle market and Driver Assistance System technology and marketVishwas Shankar • Strategic thinking & strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management toolsIndustry Analyst • Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring and executing complex engagementsAutomotive & Transportation Career HighlightsFrost & Sullivan Having worked with leading firms and associations, carry a total of 7 years work experience as below:Europe • Assistant Manager - Purchase, Renault Nissan Technology and Business Centre India Private LtdChennai, India • Deputy Manager - Purchase, Mahindra Renault Private Ltd. • PGET, Mahindra & Mahindra Automotive • Project Assistant (DLPD) and Teaching Assistant (M.E. Group), BITS – Pilani • Intern, PED, Sundaram-Clayton Ltd • Intern, Foundry, Perambur Locoworks Education • Master of Engineering in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani • Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani 2
    • Anjan Hemanth Kumar Functional Expertise More than 3.5 years of automotive strategy consulting and research experience, having worked on more than 15 opportunity assessment and strategy formulation engagements with Global clients. Specific expertise in: - Go-to market strategy formulation - New market entry and diversification strategies - Product portfolio review, product development and launch - New business model analysis and evaluation - Due diligence activities - Competitive intelligence and benchmarking Industry Expertise Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing relationships with senior executives in the - Automotive PowertrainAnjan Hemanth Kumar - Electric Vehicles and TechnologiesTeam Leader - Hybrid Vehicles and TechnologiesAutomotive & Transportation - Utility and Charging Infrastructure - Automotive NVHFrost & Sullivan What I bring to the TeamEurope • Understanding of the automotive powertrain market and trends towards ‘Green’ technologiesBangalore, India • Industry recognized expertise in the area of alternate propulsion strategies for as electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles and technologies Technical expertise and in-depth understanding of electric vehicle associated industries • Strategic thinking and strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management tools • Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring & executing complex engagements • Education Master of Science, Engineering from RWTH Aachen University Bachelor of Engineering in Mechanical Engineering from PES Institute of Technology 3
    • Scope and Focus Points Geographic Coverage Europe Europe Base Year 2010 2010 Forecast Period 2011 to 2017 2011 to 2017 Vehicle Type Passenger Cars and LCVs Passenger Cars and LCVs Types of Systems Covered Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicles The European electric vehicle market Market size, key participants and line-ups OEM’s competitive dynamics profiling Top level comparisons Business models adopted by OEM’s 4
    • DefinitionsBattery Electric Vehicles: Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) topropel a vehicle. The electric power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metalhydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion). Neighbourhood Extended-range Plug-in Hybrid High-Performance City Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Electric Vehicles (CEVs) EVs (E-REVs) (PHEVs) (HPEVs) (NEVs)NEV is a US DOT A city car is a These vehicles have A plug-in hybrid These are sportyclassification for European classification an internal combustion electric vehicle (PHEV) PHEVs or batteryvehicles weighing less for small and light engine (ICE) or other has an internal electric vehicles withthan 3,000 lbs (GVW) vehicles intended for secondary source combustion engine top speeds exceedingand having a top speed use in urban areas connected in a series (ICE) with a motor 100 mph and drivingof 25 mph. NEVs are although capable of configuration to a along with a battery range exceeding 100generally restricted to operating in mixed city- generator to supply the connected in parallel to miles. The price ofoperate on streets with highway environment. batteries. The drive the ICE. They are these vehicles isa speed limit of 35 mph In Japan, city cars are range and speeds are generally regarded as expected to approachor less. called kei cars. comparable to IC full hybrids with bigger or exceed $100,000. engine vehicles. motor/battery and a plug to recharge.GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA Smart EV, Th!nk City, Chevy Volt, Opel Toyota Prius PHEV, Tesla, Venturi Fetish,G-Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP BMW Mini and others Ampera and others Ford Fusion PHEV, etc Lightning GT, etcand others 5
    • Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Salesof 2.2 M in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017 2020 Scenarios 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (% of Total Car Sales) Optimistic 4,500 23,100 123,800 289,500 665,000 1060,400 1,714,500 2,220,300 3,202,000 10-12% ScenarioF&S Scenario 4,500 16,500 72,000 193,000 453,000 792,000 1,287,500 1,736,000 2,203,000 5-7%Conservative 4,500 13,500 35,600 82,500 150,300 195,100 300,500 450,000 670,000 3-4% Scenario Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan 6
    • European EV Market will see 68 Base Model Penetration by2017 Driven by Microcars and A segment Vehicles Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 Future (Till 2017) 1 (Quadricycle and Sub-A)Microcars G-Wiz BUDDY Friendly REVA Pure mobility Heuliez ZENN Twizy Z.E. NXG BB1 Land Glider Microcar Renault REVA PSA Infiniti 11 Mega City YDEA Nano EV Axiam-MEGA Micro-Vett TATA NXR iQ based 500 EV i0n i-MiEV Bluezero E-Cell Leon Twin Drive City Smart ED Toyota Fiat C-Zero PSA Mitsubishi REVA Seat Daimler Daimler 11 A Th!nk PSA E-up! VW Indica Vista EV A1 e-tron Joule Zoe Z.E. A2 e-tron WILL IBE concept Optimal Energy B TATA Renault Audi Audi Heuliez SEAT 8 B0 based Pininfarina C Leaf Fluence Z.E. Focus electric MegaCity C30 DRIVe Octavia Green E Line 8 Renault Ford Ampera Golf blue-e-motion Škoda Nissan BMW Volvo Opel VW Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
    • OEMs are Aggressive on EV LCV Segment; To PenetrateHigh-end Segment only Post-2011 Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 Future (Till 2017) 1 ? D E6 C-X75 918 Spyder 4 Passat BYD Jaguar electric VW Porsche ? Open Essence Luxury Survolt Dezir V60 Electric Th!nk Infiniti PSA RenaultSports Volvo 8 ? 911 GT3R Range_e A1 R8 e-tron electric Land Rover Audi PorscheMPV Ox 1 Th!nk Kangoo NV200 Electric Fiat Doblo Ampere Minivan Shuttle Box Van Mega Van Partner Express Z.E. Berlingo Smith ZAP Modec Aixam-MEGA Nissan Micro-VETT Electric Renault Electric PSA PSA LCV 17 ACE Maxity APE Porter Maxximo Electric Z.E. Transit Connect i-MiEV Cargo Electric Electric Electric TATA Renault Electric Mitsubishi Piaggio Piaggio M&M Ford Vito E-Cell Daimler 12 16 11 14 15 68 Source: Frost & Sullivan 8
    • Key Models Launch Details – Important Mainstream OEMs Electric Vehicle Market: Key Electric Vehicles Price Positioning (Europe), 2010 & 2011 European price Battery Max Motor (Euro) All electric Top Speed Max MotorS. No. Launch Year OEM Model Segment Country Capacity Torque (before subsidy range (km) (km/h) Power (kW) (kWh) (N.m.) / rebates 14,995 Excluding 1 2011 REVA NXR A TBA battery 160 104 14 25 92 (Excl. Taxes - TBA) 26,300 Renault Excluding 2 2011 Fluence C France 160 136 22 70 226 battery Z.E. (incl. VAT) Nissan 33,000 3 2011 C France 160 141 24 80 280 Leaf (incl. VAT) PSA 35,350 4 2010 Citroen C- A France 128 130 16 47 180 (incl. VAT) Zero GM Opel 36,050 5 2011 C Germany 60 160 16 111 370 Ampera (incl. VAT) Source: Frost & Sullivan 9
    • Overview of Potential Business Models: Outright Sales and Leasing Concept Gain Acceptance Electric Vehicle Market: Key Electric Vehicle Business Models (Europe), 2010 & 2011 Outright Purchase Price Outright Purchase Price £28,990 / €33,000 €35,350 (Before rebate, inl. VAT) (Before rebate, inl. VAT) Residual Value Warranty Residual Value Warranty Nissan LEAF Citroen C-ZeroVehicle: Vehicle: Conditions Conditions • 55% after 3 yrs• 60% after 3 yrs 7 yr Battery 5 yr/50,000 km Battery: Battery WarrantyBattery: Warranty • 15% after 8 yrs• 15% after 8 yrs Leasing Leasing -£399/m; 4yr contract -€499/month; 4yr contract -Access to Charge Station -Vehicle + Battery -IT Telematics -Vehicle returned to dealer post contract period -Maintenance and Service -Add. Fee for info. On status of battery (>1/day) -Monthly utility Bill -No charge stations -Telematics (Specific Assistance) -Navigation Basic Business Package Basic Business Package Outright Purchase Price Outright Purchase Price €29,500 £28,990 / €33,000 (Before rebate, inl. VAT) (Before rebate, inl. VAT) Residual Value Residual Value Th!nk City Warranty Warranty Vehicle: Mitsubishi i-MiEV Conditions ConditionsVehicle & • 60% after 3 yrsBattery: 5 yr Battery 5 yr/62,500 km•15% after 5 yrs Warranty Battery: Battery Warranty Leasing • 15% after 8 yrs Leasing -€554/m;5yr contract (10% residual value) -No announcements yet -€510/m;5yr contract (15% residual value) - £300 inc. VAT – 3yrs / 37,500 under MSP -IT Telematics -Maintenance and Service Basic Business Package Basic Business Package Source: Frost & Sullivan 10
    • 16 Base Models will be introduced within the € 25,000 price and 3,500 mm length range in the European Market between 2010 and 2017 Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Drive Range and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017 Survolt Transit Connect i0n PSA Electric PSA Ford Ampere Smith i-MiEV C-Zero Mitsubishi PSA 35 Ampera Opel MegaCity Leaf BMW NissanPrice without Subsidy ( € ‘000) E6 City Joule BYD Fluence Z.E. Th!nk Optimal Energy Renault 500 EV Fiat 25 Focus electric Ford Berlingo Golf blue-e-motion Electric VW WILL Partner PSA` Dezir NXG Heuliez REVA Electric Renault Prius Hybrid PSA Kangoo Toyota Express Z.E. Ox Renault BB1 Zoe Z.E. Th!nk PSA Renault Mega City Axiam-MEGA Porter Piaggio 15 E-up! Smart VW NXR ED iQ based Toyota REVA Daimler ZENN Friendly BUDDY Microcar Heuliez Pure mobility G-Wiz REVA APE Piaggio Mega Van Nano EV Aixam-MEGA ACE Minivan Shuttle Twizy Z.E. TATA Electric 5 Renault TATA ZAP 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Length (mm) Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
    • Nissan LEAF will Launch in the European Market Amid Strong Global DemandDriven by Bookings in Portugal, Ireland, UK Followed by Netherlands Electric Vehicle Market: Nissan Leaf Product Snapshot (Europe), 2010 TARGET MARKETS TARGET MARKETS Battery USA Japan UK Netherlands Portugal • 100% Zero Emission Vehicle Vehicle Manufacturing Location • 24 kWh Li-Ion battery France Ireland Switzerland • On-board 3.3 kW charger• Oppama, Japan (50K) - 2010 Feature Analysis • 80 kW AC sync Motor / 280 N.m. torque• Smyrna, USA (150K) - 2011 • 440V Quick Charging option• Sunderland, UK (50K) - 2013 • 8 Year; 100,000 miles battery warranty • All new platform Design Styling • Standard features include: • Automotive Energy Supply Co., Ltd. (AESC). • CARWINGS• Athletic Physique - 5-door functionality of AESC – Battery supplier • Hands free Bluetooth phone system a hatchback with curves • Battery manufacturing locations – Japan, • I-pod interface system• Smart Fluidity – Distincity LED H/Lamp, USA, UK. • 6 speaker audio system with Mp3 low hoodline • Battery volumes of 380K by 2012 CD playback• Racecar approach – Flat floor plan and • 5 passenger seating Rear diffuser • 60/40 split fold down rear seatbacks• Designed from scratch interiors • Optional features include:• X-by Wire technology • Photovoltaic solar panel Spoiler • Rear View Monitor (RVM)Dimensions, Range, Speed & Acceleration • Fog-lamps Other Nissan EV Models • Automatic on/off headlamps • L/W/H – 4445/1770/1550 • 5 Color options • Range – 160 km • NV200 EV • DC fast charge ports • Top Speed – 141 km/h • Infiniti Essence based Luxury sedan • Vehicle Buy/Lease Options with • 0-100 km/h in 7 seconds • Infiniti Land Glider finance plans Configurations and Base Pricing UK Variant Ireland Variant Netherland Variant France Variant Switzerland Variant Portugal Variant • £ 28,990 • € 29,995 • € 32,839 • € 35,000 • 49,950 CHF • € 35,200 70% of sales in 2011 are expected to be to fleets. Current fleet orders are outright sales. Colour Options: Pearl White, Force Red, Sky Blue, Universal Silver, Kuro Black All initial EVs are sold with charging station. Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
    • Th!nk City the First EV to be Granted Pan-European Regulatory Safety Approval hasCompleted 2,500th Vehicle Builds in Europe and Sold Across Europe Electric Vehicle Market: Th!nk City Product Snapshot (Europe), 2010 TARGET MARKETS Battery TARGET MARKETS Norway Austria Switzerland • 100% Zero Emission Vehicle Netherland UK Spain • Available with 2 battery options • 23 kWh Zebra Sodium / 22 kWh Li-Ion battery Vehicle Manufacturing Location • 30 kW AC sync Motor / 90 N.m. torque France Sweden Finland• Valmet Auto, Finland (30K) - 2011 • 8 Year; 100,000 miles battery warranty• Elkhart, USA (20K) - 2013 Denmark Germany USA • Enerdel, Japan – Li-Ion Battery supplier Design Styling • Li-Ion Battery manufacturing locations – Feature Analysis Japan.• Powerful shoulder lines - Superior road • Battery volumes TBA • Standard features include: handling • Dual Airbags• Side indicators on wheel arches – • Interiors with Energy absorbring Innovative looks foams• ABS plastics Body – To avoid visible • IsoFix child restraint system scratches and dents • Passenger airbag OFF switch• Rear glass view of rear bumper – Aids • Inertia OFF switch (to cut off power while reversing in events of accident) • 2+2 seatingDimensions, Range, Speed & Acceleration • Optional features: Other Th!nk EV Models • A choice of two battery options • L/W/H – 3143/1658/1596 • 4 color options • Range – 160 km • Th!nk Ox • Air-conditioning • Top Speed – 110 km/h • Th!nk Open • Vehicle Buy/Lease Options with • 0-80 km/h in 16 seconds battery lease plans Configurations and Base Pricing All Europe Regions • € 29,500 Colour Options : Black Jungle, Blue Sky, Red Energy, City Citrus (Yellow) Source: Frost & Sullivan 13
    • Key Enablers for Electric Vehicle Market Accelerationacross UK, Norway and Denmark Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Key Enablers (Europe), 2010 Country United Kingdom Denmark1. Cash Incentives £5,000 180% Registration Tax Certain councils, future plans to be free across all Plans to provide free parking2. Free Parking areas3. Congestion Charge No Congestion Charge Similar incentives to be in place4. Free ride on bus lanes Applicable Applicable5. Govt EV Targets 20% LEV by 2020 200,000 EV’s by 20206.Nos. of Charge Stations 100,000 by 2015 150,000 by 20157.Govt programmes in place for CS Plugged in Places Better Place – Talks of Govt. support8. % of Fleets in regions 40% >30% 100% Capital Allowance in 1st year ; Internal CO29. Corporate Taxation Policy target will see fleets be replaced by Hybrids / NA EV’s Highest in EU; 60% from Coal and goal to10. Cost of Energy Highest per capita CO2 emission in EU replace with renewable energy Structured – clearly well established Unstructured11. Structure of Ministries associations that drive certain programmes Funded by TSB; and several more planned in13. Pilot Testing support Under Evaluation future Presence of both OEM and battery14. Presence of Local Manufacturing No automotive industry base or presence manufacturing centres Source: Frost & Sullivan 14
    • Key Conclusions The Renault-Nissan Group will be biggest EV brand amongst competing 35 OEMs. Together, the group has planned for more than 8 base models launch between 2010 and 2017. 16 base models are clustered within price € 25,000 and within 3,500 mm length range. And, another 17 base models compete within the 3,500 mm and 4,500 mm length range. Key Conclusions Most EV models promise to run up to a range of 160km on a single charge with a maximum speed of 160km/h Almost all OEMs offer base models by different business models and include vehicle outright purchase and leasing options, with and without battery lease plan. Source: Frost & Sullivan 15
    • Electric Vehicles Research Published 2010Sl. No Published Title Research Code 1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18 Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends 2 M67A-18 Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010 3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18 4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18 5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18 6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18 7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18 8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18 9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18 10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18 11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18 Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price 12 M682-18 Positioning 13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18 14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18 15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18 16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18 16
    • Upcoming Electric Vehicles Research Plan 2011Sl. No Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type 1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend 2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 3 NA ME Research North America Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 4 EU ME Research Europe Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 5 China ME Research China Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station 6 NA Megatrend Infrastructure in North America 7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and 8 NA Megatrend Product and Price Positioning 9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research 10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research 11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research 12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in China China ME Research 13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research 14 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend 17
    • Voting Participate in our three polls by casting your vote. 18
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    • For Additional InformationJoanna Lewandowska Cyril CromierCorporate Communications Manager Sales DirectorEurope Europe+48 22 390 41 46 +33 1 42 81 22 44joanna.lewandowska@frost.com cyril.cromier@frost.comSarwant SinghPartnerGlobal A&T+44 207 915 7843sarwant.singh@frost.com 22