Delivering to the Cities of Tomorrow - Global Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics


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Delivering to the Cities of Tomorrow - Global Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics

  1. 1. Delivering to the Cities of TomorrowGlobal Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics
  2. 2. Today’s Presenters Archana Amarnath Program Manager Visionary Innovation Research Frost & Sullivan Archana Vidyasekar Senior Research Analyst Visionary Innovation Research Frost & Sullivan 2
  3. 3. AgendaIntroduction and Definition of Urban LogisticsPresentation of Top Mega Trends of the FutureInfluencing Urban LogisticsUrban Logistics : New Trends and Business ModelsMore About Visionary Innovation Group 3
  4. 4. Objectives of the Briefing• Defining and understanding the concept of urban logistics and the dynamics within the industry• Understand impact of Mega Trends in driving new business models, new technologies and urban freight transport practices• Gain insight into the use of information and communication in fleet management and robotics in warehousing• Spot new business models and intelligent optimised solutions being deployed for urban logistics 4
  5. 5. What is Urban Logistics? tailor-Urban Logistics offers unique tailor-made solutions for the transport of goods in cities by consolidating & rationalizing the existing logistics platforms & creating innovativesolutions for the future through the use of information and communication technologies Key Segments Within Urban Logistics Transportation Warehousing Value-Added Value- & Distribution Activities Activities Activities In- In-Bound Storage Planning / Transportation Marketing Other Outbound Inventory Optimisation Transportation Management Techniques 5
  6. 6. Global Mega Trendsand Urban Logistics 6
  7. 7. Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics Industry Future Connectivity and Infrastructure1 Urbanisation 2 Convergence 3 Bricks & Clicks 4 DevelopmentThere Will be 35 Mega By 2025, each person By 2025, 20% of retail By 2025, globally overCities Globally By 2025 will have a minimum of will happen through $800 billion will beDemanding For Unique five connected devices online channels spent on high speed railCity Logistics Solutions projects. What does this mean for Urban Logistics? ‘On-the-fly’ deliveries Demand for urban An fuel and carbon500 million deliveries will have to made parcel deliveries will efficient alternative toper person per day to anywhere, anyhow, increase – shipments to road and air transport cities faster and quicker become smaller and and multi-modality. frequent 7
  8. 8. Mega Trend 1 : UrbanisationUrbanisation Will Compel Logistics Companies To Have More Spokes Near the Cities The Hubs: Central Distribution Centres 80% - 100% load factor Spokes: Drop off-points for deliveries near remote city areas Medium and Light In-night services, Early- In- Early- CVs will deliver goods morning deliveries to warehouses within city Reduce the number of trips by almost half on- 100% on-time deliveries Heavy CommercialVehicles (double trailertrucks) will carry goods tobig warehouses at outskirts Outer Ring Road 25 miles from City Centre 8
  9. 9. Distribution will be Shared and become more Consolidated Without Consolidation Centres With Consolidation Centres Consolidation centre 9
  10. 10. Mega Trend 2 : Connectivity and Convergence Logistics Technology to Become More Proactive than Reactive Real- Real-time is Too Late… Urban logistics opportunities2025 Social Media Integration Cloud Logistics Intelligent Transport ‘On-the- ‘On-the-Fly’ Deliveries2020 Systems Sensors and Individually optimized Terrain Mapping transport solution2015 Traffic Predicting Quality Control ‘On the Software Move’2010 Telematics Urban Lead Logistics Reactive Proactive 10
  11. 11. Mega Trend 3 : Bricks and ClicksGlobal Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail “More the ‘Clicks’ More the Truck Mileage” $23 Online Sales Non- Non-Online Sales Trillion % share of online in total retail, 2025 $11.8 Trillion 24% 18% 25% 10% 15% $18.7 81% Trillion $1.32 $11.25 Trillion95% Trillion $1.30 Trillion $0.19 Trillion $0.17 Trillion $0.09 $4.3 19% Trillion Trillion 1 United 2 China 3 United 4 Japan 5 Germany $0.55 States Kingdom5% Trillion 2011 2025 11
  12. 12. The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to anIntegrated Cross Channel Model Demanding For Multiple Delivery Options (pre- Bricks (pre-2000) (post- +Advent of Clicks (post-2000)Department Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps Stores The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) Virtual Stores Interactive Stores Hyper Online Markets Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis 12
  13. 13. Retail Logistics Will Innovate Its Last Mile Offering Multiple Self- Delivery Options From Home Delivery to Self-Collect Ecommerce pressures on the supply chain Cold Multiple Smaller Frequent Inventory Supply Delivery Shipments Deliveries Visibility Chain Options Services Urban Logistics SolutionsSame-Same-Day Night Time Click ‘n’ Collect Locker Boxes Refrigerated Locker Boxes 13
  14. 14. Mega Trend 4 : Higher Speed Logistics In Future, HS Rail will not only offer high speed personal mobility but will also transport cargo at a lesser fuel and carbon costProject Examples:• Eurocarex – High Speed Freight Train Between Lyon and London• Bangalore-Chennai High Speed Freight Train• China’s Mixed Passenger-Freight High Speed TrainsWhat are the Opportunities?• Higher Speed Logistics• Intermodal Logistics• Next-day delivery between continents• More fuel-efficient than Air-Road Mix• Night-time multimodal logistics (e.g. no night time flight restrictions) 14
  15. 15. Urban Logistics Trends 15
  16. 16. How will demand for urban logistics affect the spending on logistics in urban environments ? 2011 2020 $2.55 2.5x $5.98Urban Logistics Spending trillion Trillion 50% 55%Transportation & Distribution 32% 23%Warehousing 18% 22%Value-Value-Added 16
  17. 17. How will urban freight transportation change?Road to remain the dominant mode of urban freight transport. Logistics RelatedTransport Will Account For Over 35% Of Urban Freight TrafficB2C trips will Come to rival the current dominant segment, B2B by 2020underpinned by growth in ecommerceAverage length of haul will decrease as warehouses and delivery spokes movefurther into cities100% Loading Factor of Trucks – Full Optimisation fuel-Smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles will be used within cities which are multi- on-seamlessly integrated with multi-modal functionalities (roll on-roll off) 17
  18. 18. Future of Road Transport: Truck Concept 2020 The Concept of future delivery vans will revolve around technology, carbon footprint, fuel efficiency and Aerodynamics• Vehicle to grid • Lighter weight Connectivity Design Communication vehicles (Plastic Navigation Shell)• Green routing, • Low loading floor terrain mapping constructions• On-Board Traffic • Roll on-roll off analysing tools, systems• Geo-fencing, and Smart sensors Engine & Driver Fuel Support • Electric • Tire Pressure • Hybrids/Fuel cell Monitoring Fleets System, • CNG • Driver Distraction • HCCI Warning, Adaptive cruise control 18
  19. 19. Future Generation of WarehousesRobotic, Automated and Intelligent Warehouse Picking Robotic Unmanned Forklifts Picking Robots (Kiva) Augmented Reality ‘Autostore’ Autostore’ Picking 19
  20. 20. Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery More Bundling and Innovative Last Mile Deliveries in Urban Areas Types of Urban DistributionUrban Consolidation Centres Urban Transhipment Areas Urban Intermodal Hubs Last- Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries Microdistribution Locker Boxes National Postal Service Mobile Collection 20
  21. 21. Urban Logistics Policies and Measures 21
  22. 22. How are Cities managing Urban Logistics? Through vehicle access restriction, economic instruments, and special infrastructure, city governments and municipalities are planning for an urban future Access Economic Special Restriction Instruments InfrastructureLow Emission Zones Congestion Charging Freight Lanes Time Windows Incentives & Subsidies Urban Consolidation Centre Vehicle Weight Loading / Restrictions Unloading Areas 22
  23. 23. Examples of Cities experimenting with Urban Freight Measures City of Paris Parking Bays Switzerland Subsidy for Intermodal Transport Barcelona Night Time Window Italy’s Urban Consolidation Centres 23
  24. 24. Urban BusinessModels From LSPs 24
  25. 25. Emerging and Future Urban Logistics Business Models 2020 Autonomous (Self- Fleet (Self- Monitoring Vehicles) Cloud Logistics Lifestyle CarriersFuture 2015 Hybrid / Electric Logistics Fleet / Shared Pick-Up Vans / Pick- Planning and Fleet Self- Self- Collection Forecasting 2012 Points Multimodal Telematics / Real Deliveries Locker Boxes Time Solution 2010Past Off- Off-Peak Consolidation Proprietary EDI 2008 Deliveries Centres Transportation Distribution Value- Value-added services 25
  26. 26. Examples of Logistics Service Providers Experimenting with Urban Logistics ModelsDHL Consolidation Centre TNT Express Tricycles UPS- UPS-KialaFedex Smart Ecommerce TNT Express Bento Box Geodis Distropolis Solutions 26
  27. 27. Top Urban Logistics Industries 27
  28. 28. Top Industries Using Urban Logistics Services in the Future Food & Retail Pharmaceutical Beverages Industry Chilled and Frozen Smaller Stores Generic Medicines Trend Food Urban Smaller shelf size – No more Need for Cold Logistics need for constant homogenous single Supply ChainImplication replenishment supply chain model Services Urban Retail Refrigerated Logistics Consolidation Pack-to- Pack-to-order Locker Boxes Services Centres 28
  29. 29. So what will the future of Urban Logistics look like in 20251. A minimum of 500 million deliveries per day will be made within cities by 2025.2. People will volunteer to deliver goods on their way home becoming lifestyle couriers3. Access to cities in the future will be guided by Smart Cards and e-Tags e-4. Information Driven Logistics will become the norm with providers planning delivery trips even before orders are placed through predictive analysis and social media integration5. Logistics companies will innovate to overcome the future urban challenge introducing hybrid fleets, consolidated deliveries and locker boxes among others innovations for cities6. City planners will reinforce and introduce new policy measures to control vehicle access, provide economic incentive for sustainable freight deliveries, and invest in infrastructure such as freight villages 29
  30. 30. Visionary Innovation ResearchTop Mega Trends That We Track 2012 Topics • Global Mega Trends and its Implications Future to Urban Logistics to 2020 Urbanization Bricks and Infrastructure • Urbanisation and Mega Cities and – City as a Clicks Development Impact on Industries and Business Customer • New Business Models of the Future • Bricks and Clicks: Macro to Micro Innovating Health, Implications of Connectivity and Smart is the Wellness Convergence In Retail Industry to Zero New Green and Well Being Social New Business Future of Upcoming Topics - 2013 Trends Models: Value Mobility for Many • Macro to Micro Implications of Convergence on Industries, Products and Technologies • 3D printing and its Macro to Micro Connectivity Beyond Impact on Manufacturing and Supply and BRIC: The Chain Management Convergence Next Game • Macro to Micro Implications of Robotics Changers and Artificial Intelligence on Industries 30
  31. 31. Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionProvides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Topics by Industry Verticals A B C Global Mega Trends Regional Mega Trends Focus on Specific Mega Analysis and Implications Trends and Their Impact by Industry • Featuring global study updates • Analysis of global Mega Trends in annually and analysis of key key geographies such as • Focus on specific Topics e.g. the topics like Urbanisation, Smart is 1. Africa Impact of Connectivity and the New Green, Health, Wellness 2. India Convergence on Healthcare and Well Being 3. China Devices, Urban Logistics . 4. Latin America • There will be over 30 such topics • Identification of specific completed in next 12 months regional trends (e.g., beneficiation in Africa) 360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on Industries 31
  32. 32. From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation To Macro Micro Mega Trend Analysis of Opportunities andSelected trends that impact your business and markets Unmet Needs Sub Trend Impact on Future Product/ A sub-layer of trends that has a Technology wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts 32
  33. 33. Learn More About “New Mega Trends” Book: Published Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan 23 Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 33
  34. 34. Contact InformationSarwant Singh Archana AmarnathPartner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Program Manager, Visionary Innovation ResearchResearch Group and Automotive & Transportation Group (+44) 2079157843 (+44) 2079157893 aamarnath@frost.comArchana Devi VidyasekarSenior Research Analyst, Visionary InnovationResearch Group (+91) 4466814216 34