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Decarbonising Europe: The Future of Energy & Water

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360 Degree Perspective of the Global Energy & Environment Industry by Frost & Sullivan

360 Degree Perspective of the Global Energy & Environment Industry by Frost & Sullivan

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  • Evolution of Building Technology and where we are now. Emphasis has been on energy efficiency.
  • Micro renewables
  • Evolution of Building Technology and where we are now. Emphasis has been on energy efficiency.
  • Transcript

    • 1. 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Energy & Environment Industry Decarbonising Europe: The Future of Energy & Water London May 2011
    • 2. Growth Opportunities in a Complex Business Universe
    • 3. Agenda
      • Energy & Water Management are True Megatrends of the 21 st Century
      • Top 10 Markets to Watch
      • The Technology Perspective …. Smart Technology Re-Defining Competition
      • The Global Perspective …. ‘Water’ is Emerging as a Major Energy Efficiency Segment
      • The Customer Perspective …. Energy Efficiency at Point of Use
      • Opportunity Discussion
    • 4. Energy & Water Management are True Megatrends of the 21 st Century
    • 5. The ‘Simple’ Challenge .... Balancing 3 Issues Global Energy Demand Environment Fuel Supply and Costs
    • 6. The ‘Simple’ Challenge .... Balancing 3 Issues Global Energy Demand Environment Fuel Supply and Costs Technology Innovation Connectivity & Integration Efficiency of Usage
    • 7. Evolution of Market Issues 1970 1990 1980 Major Issue EU Directive for air-quality standards and smoke 2000 2010 Heightened public objection to emissions Greenhouse gas emissions allowance trading scheme Major strikes in UK as coal production is cut Chernobyl disaster challenges nuclear safety Emergence of major capacity gaps across Europe & NA First wave of Nuclear Production outages in North Sea Fears over security of gas supplies from e.g Russia Extremely cold weather in Europe increases demand and oil prices Libya nationalises British Petroleum concession & Iraq follows soon Acceleration of oil prices Windfall profits tax enacted and later reduced ‘ Dash for Gas’ German government announces plans to phase out nuclear power Adoption of EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) Global water Stress Prices rise as oil embargo begins Oil embargo ends 20: 20: 20 EU vision for renewables US boom followed by crash China boom
      • 2011:
      • Security of Energy Supply
      • Portfolio Diversification
      • Energy Efficiency
      • Capacity Optimisation
      • Integration of Renewables
      • Sustainable Water
      Fuel Supply/Cost Trends Global Energy Demand Environment Issues
    • 8. Timeline for Major Market Issues (and one big conclusion) 2010 2020 2015 Major Issue China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 2025 2030 Global Energy Demand almost double 2000 levels Growth dominated By India & China Global CO2 Emissions reach 40 Gt 20% Renewable Energy in Europe Demand for liquid fuel falling after 2015 Stationary fuel cells contribute to distributed generation Accelerated investment in carbon capture and storage Electricity generation passes 30,000 billion kWh Continued acceleration of coal-fired power Acceleration of Natural gas Coal reaches Almost 40% of energy Consumption, following growth in India and China Global Electricity Generation (billion kWhr) Source: Frost & Sullivan and EIA. 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 Resurgence Of Nuclear Oil passes $100 per barrel Growth of natural gas kept in check by high gas prices Deceleration and maturation of EU Long-running boom in Russia 2010 2020 2015 2025 Growth Resumed in all regions Developing economies pass 40% of electricity demand Oil drops To $35 per barrel Global Renewables Growth Potable water consumption up 50% on 1995 Boom in RO Desalination Energy from Waste in Emerging Markets Fuel Supply And Costs Global Energy Demand Environment Issues
    • 9. Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel Global Electricity Generation Forecast in TWh (World), 2010-2030) Electricity Generation Average Annual Growth Rates by Technology (World), 2010-2030
    • 10. Share of Fossil–Based Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2010 Share of Fossil–Based Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2020 Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan *Carbon-Free includes nuclear and all renewable energy sources Fossil Fuel Dominance to 2020 and Beyond
    • 11. De-Carbonising .... Challenges & Opportunities
      • Issues & Challenges:
      • Green investment is too often not price competitive
      • Too many markets remain beholden to incentives & grants
      • Regulations cover the ‘What’ and not so much the ‘How’
      • Opportunities:
      • When the issues go beyond green
      • Where the added value becomes truly tangible
      • When secure financing is available
      • When there is a real RoI
      • .... When the risk for the customer is low.
    • 12. Outlook for the Environment & Energy Industry Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch For in 2020 Energy Recovery from Waste Energy Efficiency in Buildings SMART Buildings LED Lighting Revolution Water Re-Use & Desalination Top 10 Markets of the Future Key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI. Source: Frost & Sullivan SMART Grid/ SMART Energy Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage Fuel Cells Solar PV Carbon Capture and Storage
    • 13. The Technology Perspective …. Smart Technology Re-Defining Competition
    • 14. Smart Concepts and the Key Enablers for Growth Building Utility System Other Buildings
      • Fully automated ‘digital’ buildings
      • Continuous 2-way communication
      • Micro-generation
      • Demand response
      • Smart materials
      • Fully integrated building controls
      Key Features
      • Open architecture
      • Advanced building design
      • Software tools
      • Analysis & reporting
      • Connectivity of devices
      • Networks of ubiquitous sensors
      Growth Enablers Smart Building Smart Grid Smart City
      • Inter-connectivity between buildings and communities
      • Virtual consumers
      • Shared efficiency gains
      • Smart service delivery (safety, health, education etc.)
      Key Features
      • IP networks and affordable broadband
      • Real-time network visualisation
      • Inter-connected advanced metering infrastructure
      • Buy-in from city leaders
      Growth Enablers
      • Optimised use of capacity
      • Advanced metering infrastructure
      • Integrating renewables
      • Digital intelligence
      • Remote control
      • Micro grids
      • Virtual power plants
      Key Features
      • Smart metering
      • Drive from utilities
      • Regulation
      • Energy price signals
      • Energy storage
      • Integrated communications
      • Sensing & measurement
      Growth Enablers 1 2 3 Source: Frost & Sullivan.
    • 15. Key Market Drivers and Impact by Region China North America Europe Source: Frost & Sullivan. Growth in Electric Vehicles Low High Low High Low High Power Demand Exceeding Supply Low High Low High Low High Grid Infrastructure Needs Low High Low High Low High Downstream Energy Efficiency Low High Low High Low High Integration of Renewable Energy Sources Low High Low High Low High Demand Response Low High Low High Low High Smart Grid Drivers 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4
    • 16. Convergence of Technology Leads to Convergence of Competition IT Players Automation/Building Control Players Energy/Infrastructure Players Source: Frost & Sullivan.
      • IP Networks
      • Digital Technology
      • Analysis Software
      • Wireless Communication
      • Technology Integration
      • Network Security
      • Etc.
      • T&D Technology
      • Power Electronics
      • Renewable Energy
      • Integrated Distribution Management
      • Substation Automation
      • AMI-Enabled Metering
      • Etc.
      • Building Automation
      • Demand-Side Management
      • Connectivity of devices
      • Monitoring and Sensing
      • Smart Grid Integration
      • Etc.
    • 17. Emergence of Tier 1 Integrated Solution Providers IT Players Automation/Building Control Players Energy/Infrastructure Players Tier 1 Integrated Solution Providers. Source: Frost & Sullivan.
    • 18. Tier 1 Players are Evolving ... Partnerships are Changing Hardware Process Technology Source: Frost & Sullivan. Arrow indicates current strategic direction.
    • 19. The Global Perspective …. ‘Water’ is Emerging as a Major Energy Efficiency Segment
    • 20. Rapid Population Growth & Urbanisation Water Stress Storm/Flood water Management Material Resource & Energy Recovery Carbon Footprint Water Quality & Public Health Water reuse and Recycling Social Ecological Economical Water Supply & Sanitation Needs of Remote Communities Aquatic biodiversity & Habitats International Agencies Regional/National Environment Protection Agencies Political & Financial Business & Financial Agencies Sustainable Water Management Solutions Drivers of De-Carbonisation Water Tariffs Non Revenue Water
    • 21. Sustainable Water Treatment Solutions Technology Roadmap 1980 2000 1990 Evolution of Water Management Technologies and Solutions 2010 2020 Membrane Technology Service Outsourcing Thermal Desalination Water & Wastewater Treatment Water Management Re-Use & Recycling Advanced WW Treatment (ex. Nutrient removal) Integrated Water Management & Services Turnkey Solutions Material, Resource & Energy Recovery Bio Solids Management Worldwide Sanitation Treatment Systems for Small Communities Retrofit, Replacement & Upgrading Developing Countries Ballast Water Treatment Low-Carbon Solutions & Services Chemical free treatment RO Desalination Storm water Management Water Re-Use & Recycling Smart Water Solutions
    • 22. Water Usage Inherently Linked to Power Generation COAL NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR Source: Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency
    • 23. Example – Water Demand Forecasts in Coal Powered Plants by Regions North America European Union Eastern Europe & CIS Rest of Asia Latin America Middle East & Africa India China Coal Fired Generation (TWh) Water Demand Billion Gallons 33 108 2007 2020 2007 2020 304 358 2020 2007 537 1,023 2020 2007 2,685 4,524 16 54 152 179 268 511 1342 2262 Water Demand (Billion Gallons) Coal Fired Generation (TWh) 2,266 2,253 1133 1126 1,024 870 512 435 400 472 200 236 835 568 417 1,136 2007 2007 2007 2007 2020 2020 2020 2020 Source : Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency 2007 2020
    • 24. Illustration Source: BioMinE- Biotechnologies for Metal bearings materials in Europe, 2008, IC© Reactor Paques and Metcalf & Eddy, Wastewater Engineering: Treatment Disposal and Reuse, 1991 A B C D E F 1.UASB-based technologies A. Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) B. Expanded Granular Sludge Bed (EGSB) C. Internal Circulation reactor (IC © ) 2. Continually Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR)/ Completely Mixed Anaerobic Digestion 3. Other technologies (including new developments): D. Anaerobic Filters (AF) or Packed Bed Reactors (PBR) E. Anaerobic Hybrid Reactor (AHR) F. Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR) Anaerobic Digester Technologies: Energy Generation from Industrial Wastewater Treatment: Technology Segmentation (World), 2010 Gas Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gas
    • 25. Energy Generation from Industrial Wastewater Treatment: Revenue Growth by Region (World), 2010 and 2016 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 26. The Customer Perspective …. Energy Efficiency at Point of Use
    • 27. Energy Efficiency and Buildings: Technology and Growth Roadmap 1980 2000 1990 2010 2020 Systems Integration Building Management & Control Building Automation Green Buildings IT Convergence Functional Controllers Home Automation Building Control Building Automation Smart Buildings Energy Control Construction & Operational Efficiency Building Performance Integrated Networking Energy Management Enhanced Management Intelligent Buildings HVAC Control Intelligent Green Buildings 2011 Security Convergence Smart Towns Low Energy Lighting Micro- Renewables Micro- Generation Smart Grids How the movers & shakers are positioning themselves … Source: Frost & Sullivan. LED Lighting Evolution of Building Technology Markets
    • 28. Emergence of Micro-Renewables 1980 2000 1990 Evolution of Building Technology Markets 2010 2020 Building Control Building Automation Smart Buildings Building Performance 1980 2000 1990 2010 2020 Emergence of Micro-Renewables BIPV Micro-Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Biomass Small-Scale Hydro Source: Frost & Sullivan Fuel Cells Heat Pumps Micro CHP Systems Integration Building Management & Control Building Automation Green Buildings IT Convergence Functional Controllers Home Automation Construction & Operational Efficiency Integrated Networking Energy Management Enhanced Management Intelligent Buildings HVAC Control Intelligent Green Buildings Security Convergence Smart Towns Low Energy Lighting Micro- Renewables Micro- Generation Smart Grids LED Lighting
    • 29. Micro-Generation v Renewable Heating Comparison of Growth Prospects CAGR (2008-2015) Heat Pumps Level of Direct Competition with Traditional HVAC Technologies 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Note: Size of bubble indicates Market Size in 2008. Solar Thermal Biomass Boilers Source: Frost & Sullivan. BIPV Micro-Renewables Market: Comparison of Major Market Segments (Europe), 2009 Renewable Heating Technologies Micro-Generation Technologies Micro-CHP Micro-Wind Small Hydro
    • 30. Heat Pumps Biomass BIPV Solar Thermal Micro-CHP Leading Players in Key Current Opportunity Areas
    • 31. LED Lighting .... Transforming an Industry within 10 years 1980 2000 1990 Evolution of Building Technology Markets 2010 2020 Building Control Building Automation Smart Buildings Building Performance 1980 2000 1990 2010 2020 3% Penetration of Global Lighting Growth in Non-Lighting Applications Specialist Lighting Applications Mass Market Low Quality Applications Source: Frost & Sullivan Automotive Lighting Systems Integration Building Management & Control Building Automation Green Buildings IT Convergence Functional Controllers Home Automation Construction & Operational Efficiency Integrated Networking Energy Management Enhanced Management Intelligent Buildings HVAC Control Intelligent Green Buildings Security Convergence Smart Towns Low Energy Lighting Micro- Renewables Micro- Generation Smart Grids LED Lighting 60% Penetration of Global Lighting
    • 32. LED set for explosive growth Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan.
    • 33. LED Market Drivers ...... Perfect example of efficiency, performance & legislation Source: Frost & Sullivan. Energy Efficiency Technical Development Cost Competing EEL Economic Growth Residential Commercial & Industrial Retail & Hospitality Street Lighting Public Lighting Architectural Lighting
    • 34. Conclusions and Opportunity Discussion
    • 35. Conclusions
      • Issues of water and energy are converging ….. Efficiency is emerging as the most important value proposition
      • Smart technology is re-defining the market and becoming integral to energy and water efficiency … ‘Smart’ Solutions have leapfrogged ‘Green’ Solutions?
      • Technology convergence leads to convergence of competition and re-defined value chains .... Tomorrow’s competitors & partners will not be the same as today’s
      • Most promising markets are those that can truly balance complex drivers and provide real value and real RoI
    • 36. Contact Chiara Carella Corporate Communications 0044 (0) 207 3438314 [email_address]