Frost & Sullivan: Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision Market Insight
 

Frost & Sullivan: Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision Market Insight

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Key Predictions-2022 ...

Key Predictions-2022
• Global medium-heavy truck sales to 4.6 million; 70 % higher than 2013 sales.
• Over 40 Percent of all medium-heavy trucks manufactured globally will feature platform based lineage
• Sales of CNG/LNG and hybrid/electric enabled trucks to account for over 500,000 units
• BRIC, Next 11, and Rest of World Market to Provide 80 Percent of Sales Growth Volume; TRIAD markets to offer the rest 20 Percent growth momentum
• Competition between Daimler and Volvo to intensify as both aim for deeper and wider penetration in BRIC, Next 11, and RoW markets. Collective market share to reach 23 Percent of global market

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Frost & Sullivan: Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision Market Insight Frost & Sullivan: Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision Market Insight Presentation Transcript

  • 2020 Vision: Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Truck Market Green, Safe, and Connected Trucks to Drive Freight Mobility Improvements and Industry Revenues Sandeep Kar Global Director Automotive & Transportation Frost & Sullivan
  • 2NC9A-18 Market Overview
  • 3NC9A-18 Top 5 Predictions and Trends Key Predictions-2022 • Global medium-heavy truck sales to 4.6 million; 70 % higher than 2013 sales. • Over 40 Percent of all medium-heavy trucks manufactured globally will feature platform based lineage • Sales of CNG/LNG and hybrid/electric enabled trucks to account for over 500,000 units • BRIC, Next 11, and Rest of World Market to Provide 80 Percent of Sales Growth Volume; TRIAD markets to offer the rest 20 Percent growth momentum • Competition between Daimler and Volvo to intensify as both aim for deeper and wider penetration in BRIC, Next 11, and RoW markets. Collective market share to reach 23 Percent of global market Key Trends • NG to Emerge as a Key Fuel of Future: NG to be most sought after advanced powertrain technology. Global NG penetration to reach 8.5 % by 2022 • Low-cost to Best-cost: Low cost truck platform development will become a must for OEMs to stay competitive as global industry centers shift from NA-EU to BRIC and beyond • Beyond BRIC: Focus to shift beyond BRIC, Next 11, Africa and Other markets to emerge new battle field for Global OEMs • Platforms for Profits: Developing global platforms and increasing segment/ regional sharing of sub- systems will drive sustained profits in the long term • Smart is New Green: Supply chain optimization will drive fleets and clients in improving overall efficiency of operations stoking demand for safe, connected and intelligent truck systems Source:, Frost & Sullivan analysis. GlobalCVVision2020:2012to2022
  • 4NC9A-18 2020 CV Industry Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues By 2020 Senior Leaders at Truck OEMs and Tier-1 Companies Will Look at Advanced Technologies for Solution to Myriad Operational Issues 0 1 2 3 4 5 Last frontiers of globalization- Next 11, Africa 2.Regulation compliance pressures 3.Global manufacturing and sourcing shifts 4.Rapid proliferation of electronics 5.Urban logistics, bricks-and-clicks, and multi-modality 6. Autonomous driven connected trucks 7. Service and maintenance revenue focused business models 8. New truck types (e.g. mega-trucks, city trucks, etc.) and pricing models • Penetration and sales growth focus will shift to Next-11 and Africa markets while developed and BRIC markets will drive margin growth. This will also bring tectonic shifts in manufacturing and sourcing footprints • Advanced technologies such as autonomous driving, telematics, connected safety systems, and driver related technologies that deliver health, wellness, and well-being will offer margin growth opportunities Note: Data collected from 2013-2014 interviews and discussions with Sr. Manager to CEO level executives of truck OEMs and tier-1 suppliers in NA, EU, APAC, China, India, Latin America and other regions Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Global CV 2020 Vision: Senior Executive Top of Mind Issues, Global, 2020 • New freight routes, and massive proliferation of urban logistics will lead to introduction of new truck types, platforms, and also higher levels of multi-modality • Urban logistics and multi- modality is influencing product development
  • 5NC9A-18 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 North America South America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW MCV HCV 2013 2022 Regional Shares 85.1 % Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Global CV 2020 Vision: Unit Shipments—Global: 2013–2022 2022 ~2.7 million ~4.6 million 5.9% CAGR Growth 44% 31% 24% 42% 21% 21% 45% 53% 34% 36% 64% 55% 69% 76% 58% 72% 79% 55% 47% 66% Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Units MCV: 6T to 16T HCV: 16T and above Global Medium and Heavy Truck Market Forecast: Despite short-term global headwinds, stabilizing BRIC markets and rising Next 11 and African markets to elevate global MCV and HCV sales to 4.6 Million by 2022 28%
  • 6NC9A-18 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000 RoW Next 11 Europe Russia India China SA NA 2022 2013 CAGR Growth (%) Global CV Vision 2020: Heavy Duty Truck Unit Shipment Forecast for Key Markets—Global: 2013–2022 Units Global Heavy Truck Market—Unit Shipments Forecast by Region: Russia and Next 11 To Experience Double-Digit Growth in Heavy Truck Sales Through the Forecast Period; China and India to Move Through Volatile Period Recovering Higher Rates Beyond 2015 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Next 11 markets to perform the best among the global markets. Russia to be the best performing BRIC market. Demand from neighboring CIS and East European countries to improve truck output. Indian HCV market to be back on a growth track with improving infra spending and a recovering economic situation. 3.3 4.9 5.5 14.1 10.5 5.1 9.8 8.0 Brazilian economic recovery coupled with Latam economic progress to influence truck demand in the region. Heavy duty segment to benefit in the region.
  • 7NC9A-18 North America South America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 GVWR (kilogram) Price($) Global CV Vision 2020: Highest-selling Weight Segment in Each Region—Global: 2022 Size of the bubble: Sales units of top segments in each country in 2022. Attractive Segment by Region—2022 The 22 to 27 MT Segment to Emerge as Most Attractive Among Trucks Globally at a Price Band of $45,000 to $75,000 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 8NC9A-18 Expected Number of Global Platforms Available, 2012-2015 Vehicle Platform Strategies of Key Global HD OEMs: Outlook for 2022 Participants with Global Platform Portfolio, Strong Presence in Growth Markets, and Regional Branding Expected to Sustain Profits Globally Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Daimler Group Volvo Group MAN SE Scania AB PACCAR Inc. Dongfeng Motor Corp. Beiqi Foton Navistar Inc. IVECO Ashok Leyland Clear global strategy, strong product mix Global strategy evolving, strong regional products Size of bubble represents expected production volume attributable to platform-based HD truck models by 2018 TATA Motors Profitable, only at regional level Sought-after zone Sustained profits, globally OverallGlobalPresenceIndex CNHTC Global CV Vision 2020 : HD OEM Outlook Comparative Analysis—Global: 2013-2022
  • 9NC9A-18 Region CV Technologies Natural Gas Hybrid-Electric Engine Downsizing Low Cost Truck Safety Systems Telematics Infotainment and HMI North America South America Europe Russia China India Strong Trend Towards 2022 Moderate Trend Towards 2022Market in 2012 Global CV 2020 Vision: Top CV Technologies Outlook—Global: 2013–2022 Top CV Technologies- Global Outlook: OEMs to Increasingly Focus on Advanced Powertrain, Safety, Telematics, and Cabin Systems for Diversified Leadership Across Segments and Geographies NA
  • 10NC9A-18 Health Wellness & Wellbeing - Key for driver retention and recruitment Current Willingness to Pay a Premium by Fleets Safety Systems Driver-Fleet Preference in Soft Technologies Driver Retention and Recruitment will Become Important for Fleets; OEMs Providing Trucks with HWW Features at Competitive Price will Gain Market Share. Fleet PreferenceMedium High Medium Connectivity & Telematics Driver Safety Vehicle & Cargo Safety Comfort & Ergonomics Entertainment & Storage Space HMI Fuel Efficiency Driving Assistance System DriverPreference High Global CV Vision 2020: Fleet Preference- Cabin Technologies, NA-EU, 2012
  • 11NC9A-18 Fleet Operator Cloud OEM Component Suppliers Independent Telematics Vendor Data Aggregation Management Wireless Provider Billing Engine Mobile Phone Note: FMS = fleet management Systems Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Dealer Network or Leasing Company OEMtoFleetOwner IndependentVendortoFleetowner OEM through Independent Vendor to Fleet Owner (e.g., IVECO through Qualcomm) TelecomOfferingFMSDirectly (e.g.,VerizonWireless;using Xora) Current solution Future solution Information flowKey: Commercial Vehicle Telematics Ecosystem Many real-time information providers for services such as tolling, secured route, and parking spots, are likely to join the ecosystem by 2020. Global CV Vision 2020: FMS Value Chain, NA-EU, 2012-2022
  • 12NC9A-18 R.O.I. and Initial Acquisition Cost Driver Acceptance Technology Interface Integration Liability Regulation Effectiveness of Technology Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Global MCV-HCV Truck Safety Systems Adoption Hot Spots ABS, ESC, and Active Braking Technologies to Gain BRIC and Next 11 Adoption; While Mature Markets (e.g. NA, EU, etc.) to Increasingly Adopt Telematics Based Integrated Safety Systems Global CV Vision 2022: Safety Technology Hot Spots: 2013-2022 Expected Key Decision Factors for Safety Technology Selection ABS Stability control systems Tire Pressure Monitoring Vision Based Systems Integrated Safety System Telematics Enabled Safety NA SA Europe Russia China India Africa Next 11 RoW
  • 13NC9A-18 2 3 4 5 1 Daimler and Volvo will intensify competition in global markets, with both experiencing success through value priced truck market exposure. Chinese, Indian, and Korean OEMs will benefit from growth in demand from Next 11 and African economies. Platform-based MCV and HCV production are set to receive major boosts, with OEMs’ building and executing capacity aimed at generating nearly 34 percent of total production of MCVs and HCVs from platforms by 2018. Focus will be on making trucks cheaply, and not on making cheap trucks. Diesel to continue remaining the dominant fuel for medium-heavy duty trucks globally, with 86.3 Percent of the total fuel mix in 2022. Natural gas (CNG/LNG) will experience rapid market share gain reaching 8.5 Percent and hybrid/electric will proliferate 3.8 Percent of total medium-heavy duty trucks sold in 2022. Connectivity, down time reduction, health wellness and wellbeing, safety, data analytics, form-factor reduction, and fuel efficiency enhancement while ensuring emission reduction will be the key technology focal points of truck OEMs and tier-1 suppliers. This implies that data analytics and advanced technologies will drive most revenue opportunities in the medium-heavy duty commercial vehicle market globally, regardless of point of origin or point of application. Global sales of medium-heavy trucks are expected to grow at 5.9 percent to reach 4.6 million Units by 2022. BRIC markets to account for over 60 percent of global truck sales. China, North America and India to feature as top 3 markets for medium-heavy trucks globally. Key Conclusions: Advanced Technologies to Drive Margin Growth Opportunities While Developing Market Focused Products to Drive Sales Growth Opportunities for Market Participants
  • 14NC9A-18 Email: enquiries@frost.com Contact Us To Find Out More Sandeep Kar Global Director- Automotive & Transportation +1.416.490.7796 Email: sandeep.kar@frost.com