Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends
 

Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends

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The European market on Energy, an outlook on latest developments and trends.

The European market on Energy, an outlook on latest developments and trends.

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    Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends Presentation Transcript

    • Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends Jonathan Robinson, Senior Consultant Enguerran Ripert, Consultant Energy & Power July 13th, 2010
    • Focus Points Projected Infrastructure Investment Timeline of Major Market Issues Electricity Generation & Fuel Growth Trends Key Gas Trends Nuclear Development Top 10 Technologies to Watch for in 2020 Smart Grids CCS Biogas 2
    • Projected World Infrastructure Investment 2005-2030 Total Water $22,610bn Power $9,000bn Road & Rail $7,800bn North America Europe Air/Seaports $1,590bn 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 Middle East 2,000 1,000 400 0 300 1,000 0 200 100 0 Latin/South America Africa Asia/Oceania 6,000 800 10,000 600 4,000 8,000 400 6,000 2,000 200 4,000 0 2,000 0 0 Source: Morgan Stanley 3
    • Timeline for Major Market Issues Major Issue 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil passes Energy from waste Demand for liquid fuel Coal reaches in emerging Resurgence $100 per falling after 2015 almost 45% of energy of nuclear Fuel Supply barrel markets Growth of natural gas consumption, following Oil drops growth in India and China And Costs to $35 per Continued acceleration Acceleration of kept in check by high natural gas gas prices barrel of coal-fired power Growth dominated Long-running World energy demand by India & China boom in Russia almost double 2000 levels World Energy Deceleration and Developing economies Demand Growth resumed pass 40% of electricity Electricity generation passes maturation of EU in all regions demand 30,000 billion kWh China overtakes the US as Accelerated investment Potable water 20% renewable the world’s biggest emitter in carbon capture consumption up Environment energy in Europe of CO2 and storage 50% on 1995 World Issues Stationary fuel cells World renewables Boom in RO CO2 emissions contribute to growth desalination reach 40 Gt distributed generation 30,000 World Electricity 20,000 Generation (billion kWrh) 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: EIA & Frost & Sullivan 4
    • Growth in Electricity Generation by Region 35,000 32,600 30,000 Electricity Generation (TWh) 26,620 25,000 Chinese = 5.2%. 19,756 Indian = 4.3%. 20,000 Middle East = 3.5%. 15,000 EU + North American = 1%. 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2020 2030 North America Latin America EU CEE/CIS Middle East Africa China India ASEAN OECD Pacific Other Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan 5
    • Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel 35,000 30,000 Electricity Generation (TWh) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2020 2030 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan 6
    • CAGR Growth of Key Fuels 2.1% Coal 1.3% -3.3% Oil -1.8% 2.4% Gas 2007-2020 1.5% 1.8% 2020-2030 Nuclear 2.9% 2.2% Hydro 2.2% Wind 15.2% 5.0% 7.7% Other renewables 7.2% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Compound Annual Growth Rate Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan 7
    • Growth of Unconventional Gas Coal-Bed Methane (CBM) Potential, barrels of oil equivalent Shale Gas Potential, barrels of oil equivalent Canada Shale Gas 20bn+ Europe Shale Gas 90bn China CBM 75bn US CBM 15bn+ US Shale Gas 100bn China Shale Gas 50-100bn Indonesia CBM 75bn Australia CBM 40bn Latin America Shale Gas 50-100bn Source: Lambert Energy Advisory 8
    • LNG Exports and Imports UK 10.2 Belgium 6.5 France 13.1 Spain Turkey USA 5.7 China Japan 27.1 Korea 12.8 7.6 34.3 85.9 Algeria UAE Qatar 20.9 7.0 Mexico Egypt 49.4 India 3.6 Trinidad 12.8 Taiwan Oman 12.6 19.7 Nigeria 11.8 11.5 16.0 Malaysia Indonesia 29.5 26.0 Eq.G. 4.7 Brunei 8.8 Australia 24.2 LNG Exporter (bcm) LNG Importer (bcm) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010 9
    • Gas Price Trends Outlook for the Energy & Power Industry: Natural Gas Prices, US Henry Hub ($/mmbtu), 2007-2010 12 $ 10 8 6 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Thomson Reuters from FT Energy Outlook for the Energy & Power Industry: WTI Crude Oil Prices, ($/barrel), 2007-2010 125 100 $ 75 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Thomson Reuters from FT Energy 10
    • Nuclear - Expansion and Development Russia & CIS 10 18 Units = 73 45 Europe Units = 30 6 10 11 20 14 23 China Units = 54 1 0 Middle East Asia (Other) US 4 Units = 5 Units = 33 Units = 23 1 14 India 5 16 Units = 23 7 8 6 10 7 Countries/Regions Using Nuclear Power Countries/Regions Planning for Nuclear Power Nuclear Power Plants Under Construction Nuclear Power Plants Planned Nuclear Power Plants Proposed Source: IAEA PRIS 11
    • Nuclear - Current and New to Market Technologies Description Age Latest GW Installed, models 2010 PWR Pressurised 60y EPR, Water Reactor AP1000 PWR, 225GW BWR Boiling Water 60y ABWR <40 years Reactor <35 years PHWR Pressurised 40y - <30 years Heavy Water <25 years Reactor <20 years LWGR Light Water 40y - <15 years Graphite Reactor GCR Gas Cooled 30y - reactor BWR, 94GW FBR Fast Breeding 8y DFR, Reactor PFR Fusion Many types -25y HiPER, JET, PHWR, 40GW ITER LWGR, 10GW GCR+FBR, 2GW Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
    • Nuclear - Significant Refurbishment Market Number of worldwide nuclear plants distributed by age, 2009 Q1 35 33 32 30 25 24 22 22 22 21 19 Number of Units 20 18 16 15 14 14 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Age of Units Worldwide = 371GW of installed nuclear capacity = 471 units. Currently there are 44 plants in construction, 11 of which are in China and 25 in Asia-Pacific including China. Europe = 198 installed units = 171GW installed. However, nuclear plant age is an issue which needs to be analysed carefully, as NuPLEx (Nuclear Plant License Extensions) can only be granted for a certain number of years beyond design life. The average design life for installed capacity is 34 years, however, Nuplex can be granted for up to 10 years. Newer models such as the EPR from Areva, and the AP1000 from Toshiba Westinghouse, have design lives of 60 years, however, none are yet in production. At present, there are over 160 plants which await their detailed reviews and maintenance schedule, an obligatory check performed every 10 years. 13
    • Top 10 Technologies to Watch For in 2020 Advanced Batteries and Storage Waste-to-energy SMART Grid Top 10 Technologies of the Renewable Future Biofuels/ Inverters Biogas Following are key technology Following are key technology platforms that are poised to have platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of a profound impact on a number of Fuel cells High Voltage sectors across the globe. These sectors across the globe. These Transmissions & areas present a potential high areas present a potential high Distributions ROI. ROI. Energy Carbon Capture Management and Storage Source: Frost & Sullivan Solar PV 14
    • Smart Grid – Change from Today Conventional Grid and Infrastructure Power Station Pre 2010 Office Building Houses Factory Transformation of Conventional Grid Energy Internet (Smart Grid) Hospital Smart Grid Control Centre Solar Power 2010 – 2020 Wind Power Energy Storage Smart House with EV car Distributed Generation generator 15
    • What makes up a “Smart Grid” Smart Grid Network and Connectivity Advanced Metering Emerging Demand Response Power T&D Infrastructure Technologies Smart Meters In-home Displays T&D Automation HAN Appliances High Voltage Power Load Services PHEV Chargers Transmission Smart Thermostats Energy Storage Source: Frost & Sullivan 16
    • Smart Grid – European Smart Grid Development High Sweden Italy Denmark Degree of Implementation Netherlands Spain Finland France Ireland Malta United Portugal Austria Kingdom Belgium Poland Germany Czech Republic Cyprus Latvia Low Propensity towards smart meter investments High Source: Frost & Sullivan 17
    • Smart Grid – Energy Storage Technologies Market Value ($ Billion) Lead Acid Lithium-ion Alkaline Carbon Zinc Primary Lithium NiMH NiCad Fuel Cells Zinc air Ultracapacitors Flywheels Flow batteries, CAES, SMES, Thermal batteries, Thin film Time Development Growth Maturity Decline 18
    • Smart Grid – Voltage Regulation Distribution-Static Var Compensators Units Growth Rate (%) 400 40% 35% 350 30% 300 25% 250 20% 15% 200 10% 150 5% 100 0% -5% 50 -10% 0 -15% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan 19
    • Smart Meter Market Participants – A Snapshot Remote Network Manufacturers Utilities ICT Firms Monitoring Companies & Automation Source: Frost & Sullivan 20
    • Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies Three Main Approaches to CO2 Capture Post-combustion systems - - separate CO gas Post-combustion systems separate CO2 gas produced by ‘air-blown’ combustion of fossil 2 fuel or fuel or produced by ‘air-blown’ combustion of fossil biomass. biomass. Pre-combustion systems process the primary Pre-combustion systems process the primary fuel in aa reactor to produce synthesis gas fuel in reactor to produce synthesis gas (syngas), which is then converted and separated (syngas), which is then converted and separated into gas streams –– CO for storage and hydrogen into gas streams CO2 2 for storage and hydrogen as fuel for a gas turbine or as chemical feedstock. as fuel for a gas turbine or as chemical feedstock. Oxy-fuel combustion systems produce a flue Oxy-fuel combustion systems produce a flue gas from ‘oxygen-blown’ combustion, they have aa gas from ‘oxygen-blown’ combustion, they have much higher concentration of CO2 than much higher concentration of CO2 than conventional ‘air-blown’ combustion. conventional ‘air-blown’ combustion. 21
    • Carbon Capture and Storage – Capacity Expansion Forecasts North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of the World 2010 2015 2010 2015 2010 2015 2010 2015 CCS, MW 1,050 8,395 67 12,820 800 1,200 0 420 Note: The Forecast is based on CCS projects in Planning Source: Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage, CSLF, Frost & Sullivan 22
    • Biogas Market in Europe Biogas Plan Market: Market Shares of Biogas Produced by Type of (Europe), 2007 Biogas Market in Europe – 5,347 ktoe* Decentralised Agricultural Plants Sewage Other Landfill gas sludge gas biogas Municipal solid waste methanisation plants 3,116 ktoe 950 ktoe 1,281 ktoe Centralised Co- 58% 18% 24% digestion Plants Biogas Plan Market: Market Shares of Biogas Produced by Type of (Europe), 2007-2015 100% 75% Other 50% Wastewater (sludge) Landfill 25% 0% 2007 2015 Source: Frost & Sullivan 23
    • Biogas - Market Revenue Forecasts Biogas Plant Market: Revenue Growth Forecasts (Europe), 2005-2015 2,5 30 Growth per annum (%) 2,2 Revenues ($Billion) 25 2,0 1,7 20 1,5 1,2 15 1,0 10 0,75 0,50 5 0,25 - 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Revenues Growth rate Revenues Growth rate Base Case Scenario Base Case Scenario Optimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario Scenario Analysis 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (in million Euros) Base Case 580.0 644.1 734.2 829.7 930.1 1,041 1,156 1,283 Optimistic 580.0 690.2 855.8 1,027 1,263 1,553 1,880 2,256 Source: Frost & Sullivan 24
    • Key Regional Markets for Biogas in Europe Note: Size of bubbles indicates market size Color of bubbles indicates current growth Opportunity indicator High Sweden Low The Netherlands Germany CEE Austria France Switzerland Spain Italy Source: Frost & Sullivan 25
    • Next Steps Request a strategic approach document for a Growth Partnership Service or Growth Consulting Service to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (myfrost@frost.com) +44 (0)20 7343 8383 Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth (www.gil-global.com) Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth: The CEO’s Perspective on Innovation: How Creativity Fosters Growth 14 July 2010 10:00 AM BST (www.frost.com/growthEU) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) 26
    • Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by taking our survey. 27
    • Frost & Sullivan on Twitter and Facebook Find us @Frost_Sullivan on Twitter Become a fan of Frost & Sullivan on Facebook 28
    • For Additional Information Chiara Carella Juliet Shaw Head of Corporate Communications Sales Director Europe, Middle East & Africa Energy and Environment +44 (0)20 7343 8314 +44 (0)20 7343 8363 chiara.carella@frost.com juliet.shaw@frost.com John Raspin Practice & Research Director Energy and Environment +44 (0)20 7915 7814 john.raspin@frost.com 29