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Asia Pacific : Japan Healthcare Outlook 2010

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  • Global: Pharmaceuticals/biotech comprises 70% of market with lowest growth rate LS/Health IT with highest growth rate (2010) APAC Medical Imaging at 36% of global market Pharma at 25% of global market. LS/HIT only 8% of global market 2009- apac is 23% 2010- 24% 2012 2010- pharma – 25% of global market 2012- 29% Devices- 24% of global market 26% Imaging- 32% 36% LS/HT is 8% of global market 9.4% Diagnostics 18% 19%
  • Global: Pharmaceuticals/biotech comprises 70% of market with lowest growth rate LS/Health IT with highest growth rate (2010) APAC Medical Imaging at 36% of global market Pharma at 25% of global market. LS/HIT only 8% of global market 2009- apac is 23% 2010- 24% 2012 2010- pharma – 25% of global market 2012- 29% Devices- 24% of global market 26% Imaging- 32% 36% LS/HT is 8% of global market 9.4% Diagnostics 18% 19%
  • Global: Pharmaceuticals/biotech comprises 70% of market with lowest growth rate LS/Health IT with highest growth rate (2010) APAC Medical Imaging at 36% of global market Pharma at 25% of global market. LS/HIT only 8% of global market 2009- apac is 23% 2010- 24% 2012 2010- pharma – 25% of global market 2012- 29% Devices- 24% of global market 26% Imaging- 32% 36% LS/HT is 8% of global market 9.4% Diagnostics 18% 19%
  • Drivers API- Outsourcing from US$, Europe Global R&D- Next battle ground will be China- Novartis, Pfizer is expanding china operations Pharma is fastest growing market. China ~CAGR 16-17%. India CAGR~ 12-13: Japan~ 9-10% More than 500 biotechnology-derived medicines are in development. Non small cell lung cancer : APAC no. of patients : 500,000. Breast cancer : 250,000, Colorectal : 200,000 RESTRAINTS: • Unresolved political and changing regulations reduces confidence in the market, and could mean a reduction in focUS$ in these countries for MNCs • Concerns on quality of generics, parallel imports and counterfeits • Integration of MNC Pharma as result of large acquisitions last year (Pfizer-Wyeth, MSD-Schering, GSK-Stiefel, etc). Dedicated BUS$iness Units rather than Globally controlled BUS$ Biotech 150 Billion at CAGR 7-8%.. Majority of sales come from Vaccines
  • Drivers 1) Operational Efficiency, Reducing Costs- Widespread adoption of Clinical Applications, EMR. Leading markets include Singapore, Australia, Taiwan, Japan 2) Consumer Demand- Are more savvy, increased internet penetration- china largest users Strong demand for healthcare services- IT has come into the core role of “essential” services and maximise Challenges Interoperability- Most of cUS$tomers have disparate IT platforms. Integration- Connectivity issues between departments especially the pathology dept to obtain real time results Skilled Resources- CME programs need to being designed especially for allied staff who may not be IT savvy Take-Aways Hong Kong has US$$ 400 Mil budget for EMR implementation and Malaysia has launched..XX The human factor, is a key impediment in HIT adoption- Change Management Programs are extremely essential Hongkong and Malaysia are the two countries to watch out in terms of the new health initiatives during 2010-2012
  • Source :http://www.eturbonews.com/9998/medical-tourism-gold-mine-or-time-bomb Medical Tourism : Target to attract more than 200,000 medical tourists in 2013. EMR/PHR According to the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs Sunday, the number of foreigners visiting Korea for medical treatment jumped 32.1 percent to 9,075 in the first quarter of 2009 up from 6,872 in Q1 2008 Although no government records indicate how many medical tourists come to South Korea hospitals, a survey of 29 hospitals in the country found that 38,822 uninsured foreign patients were treated between January and August, compared with 15,680 in 2007, according to the Korea Health Industry Development Institute . The survey also found that 25% of the patients were from the U.S. and 10% came from both China and Japan. (http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/129761.php) Concern and potential restraint for medical tourism : absence of legal frameworks for disputes ; English and other language capabilities. Korea has yet to establish an arbitration board to deal with medical disputes or a mechanism to compensate a patient suffering from severe complications or medical malpractices. Critics say Korea’s medical tourism is still in infant stage and has a severe shortage of human resources that can cater to the needs of foreign patients. U – Health/Nex t Gen Broadband http://www.koreaittimes.com/story/6388/ges-new-u-health-rd-center-song-do-city-incheon GE's New 'u-Health R&D Center' in Song-do City, Incheon "This year GE has announced a 'healthymagination' movement to improve technology and quality of life while cutting health care costs. Health care information technology is a pivotal technology that broadly impacts everyone. Korea is a very advanced country in information technology. We believe Korea has a technology infrastructure, talent pool and capability, which can help GE tremendously to impact other regions as well aJapan. We are committed to this R&D center and we have high hopes for the capability and possibility of the R&D center," said GE Health Care IT President Vishal Wanchoo. U-Health is strategic multinational business. GE has a plan to invest US$6 billion in health care for the next six years and the potential annual growth of the u-Health industry is over 50 percent. While Song-do City has excellent infrastructure, three international universities and national hospitals are planned to be built. The city will take an important role as a bio hub of Asia. Through a partnership between the City of Incheon and GE, Korean companies and GE can use a global network to expand their businesses and the partnership will leave a great footprint in the future of u-Health." In October, 2009 GE Health Korea started providing u-Health solutions such as a Master Patient Index (MPI), Clinical Portals, and PHR. GE, who is setting up health care as a new growth engine, has put continuous investment in Korea with great interest for its advanced technology and infrastructure, while Korean hospitals are looking for u-Health care and advanced medical solutions. u-Healthcare will be the promise for evolution of healthcare industry by improving healthcare accessibility, increasing care quality as well as controlling healthcare costs. (Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), Seoul, Korea : http://www.springerlink.com/content/c52180401260m414/) Generics/Supergenerics Although the KORUS FTA and the EU FTA will have a negative impact on smaller Korean generic companies, the impact should not be too serious on larger domestic generic producers. However, the South Korean generic industry has not taken these FTA’s well, as it believes it will damage an industry that is already under strain as a result of regular government price cuts. In order to compete, Korean companies are investing profits from their generic sales into “super-generics”; these are generics which are brought to market at the same time as patent expiry. However, this requires capital and R&D pipelines that many Korean companies simply do not possess. That said, generic drugs still, by far, dominate the South Korean pharmaceutical market. Silver Industry : Korea has fastest growing ageing population Cardiovascular /Orthopedics : Link up to Sliver Industry, Med Tourism ( high tech procedures) Wellness Products /Services : prevention, beauty/cosmetic; silver industry offers potential for further growth of nutritional products A greater variety of products have potential in the South Korean market since Korean consumers are open to new products to improve or maintain health. For instance, cancer and cardiovascular diseases are major killers in Korea; therefore, demand for nutritional supplements that enhance the immune system is strong (Austrade undated). POCT/Self Monitoring Growing incidence of lifestsle diseases combined with ageing popultaion and need for monitoring and prevention Oncology Growth from early diagnosis of cancers and targeted therapy in top 3 types of cancer : lung cancer, gastric cancer and liver cancer Potential for generic oncology drugs as this currently comprise 20% share in a market dominated by MNCs

Transcript

  • 1. Asia Pacific Healthcare Outlook Focus : Japan Analysis of Best Opportunities P3B5-54 April 2010
  • 2. Disclaimer
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    © 2010 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  • 3. Certification
    • We hereby certify that the views expressed in this research service accurately reflect our views based on primary and secondary research with industry participants, industry experts, end users, regulatory organizations, financial and investment community, and other related sources.
    • In addition to the above, our robust in-house forecast & benchmarking models along with the Frost & Sullivan Decision Support Databases have been instrumental in the completion and publishing of this research service.
    • We also certify that no part of our analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research service.
  • 4. TABLE OF CONTENT
    • Overview of Healthcare Market : Key Takeaways
      • Setting the Scene: Outlook for Healthcare Industry from 2010-12
      • Global vs. APAC: The New Frontier
    • In-depth Sectoral Analysis, APAC and Japan
      • APAC Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Market
      • Japan Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Market
      • Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Pharmaceuticals and Biotech Market
      • APAC Medical Equipment Market
      • Japan Medical Equipment Market
      • Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Medical Equipment Market
      • APAC Lifesciences and Health IT Market
      • Japan Health IT Market
      • Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Health IT Market
    • Summary : Best Opportunity Analysis, APAC and Japan
      • Where to place your bets in APAC: 2010- 2012
      • Where to place your bets in Japan: 2010- 2012
  • 5. TABLE OF CONTENT
    • Decision Support Database
      • Total Health Expenditure
      • Private Health Expenditure
      • Government Health Expenditure
      • Percent Healthcare Expenditure in GDP
      • Population Aged Above 65
    • About Frost & Sullivan
  • 6. Overview of Healthcare Market : Key Takeaways
  • 7. Setting the Scene Outlook for Healthcare Industry from 2010-12 Global Healthcare Market : 2009
    • US and Europe were impacted in a major way by global crisis
    • Asia also slowed down but not as much as the West
    • Valuations were low and M&A was high, many smaller Biotech companies struggled
    • Major organizational restructuring occurred, along with portfolios being reassessed
    Global Healthcare Market : 2010-12
    • Recovery of the markets to a large extent with strong growth in Asia
    • Start of major patent expiries
    • M&A activity down in the West but could be important in Asia, restructuring will continue
    • Asia becoming increasingly important as a market and outsourcing hub
    • 5Ps to drive market: Preventive, Preemptive, Personalized, Predictive, Personal Responsibility
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 8. Global vs. APAC: The New Frontier By 2012 APAC expected to be close to 27% of global market Source: Frost & Sullilvan ,2010 ) 23.9% 27.2% 23.2% 26.4% CAGR 12.2% CAGR 6.47%
    • By 2015 APAC could represent ~40% of global market!
    Source: Frost & Sullivan Rest of the World APAC Global & APAC Healthcare Revenues US$ Bn, 2009-2012
  • 9. Asia is however transitioning Moving toward a Multi–Polar World Order Source: Frost & Sullilvan ,2010 ) Asia Pacific Market : 2009
    • Slowing down of GDP in mature markets – Japan and Australia took a big hit
    • Global consolidation left a difficult mess for integration on a local level – job losses and portfolio realignment
    • Price cutting and playing the margins game
    • The bubble burst for Medical Tourism
    • Asia started to set up infrastructure for offshoring and outsourcing for US/EU companies
    Asia Pacific Market : 2012
    • A shift in the center of the world economically and strategically to Asia
    • Asia to move from export led development to consumption led growth
    • APAC the fastest growing pharma market and API production hub
    • Increased government attention to primary and community based healthcare .
    • Increased use of mobile technology in healthcare service delivery
    • 2010 : Malaysia Innovation and Creativity year
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 10. Aged Population , 65+ cohort is more than 20% (2008) Japan Household Financial Assets ~ US $ 16 Trillion (Sept. 2009) ** *Source MHLW, METI Source: Diabetes Australia Japan-Aging Society, Increased Economic Wealth Seizing Growth Opportunity in a deflationary environment WATAMI GROUP COMMONS 30 FUND
  • 11. Source: Frost & Sullivan. Patient Adherence (Role of New Therapies) Re-imbursement based On value (Role of cost-effective devices) Provider focus in under-served areas ( Role of IT) Japan Healthcare Industry –SWOT Analyses Emerging Paradigms
    • Universal Mandatory Insurance
    • Healthcare expenditure lower
    • compared to OECD countries
    • Highly developed infrastructure
    • and well trained & dedicated medical staff
    • Focus on short term cost constraint rather
    • than value for patients
    • Duplication and fragmentation of services
    • -Multi tiered distribution system
    • Slow registration/approval process
    • Rapidly Aging Population
    • Increasing economic wealth
    • Low custom duties/tariffs
    • Inadequate services in rural areas
    • Inefficient Physician usage
    • Dependency on imports slows down
    • innovation
    • Failure to adopt locally developed
    • principles like TQM
    Weaknesses Strengths Opportunities Threats
  • 12. In-depth Sectoral Analysis, APAC and South Korea
  • 13. APAC Pharmaceuticals Market Earlier diagnosis improves disease management and length of therapy Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost and Sullivan Market Drivers Market Restraints
    • Long term use of multiple and specialized drugs for the ageing population
    • Government support for generics and biosimilars
    • Enhanced diagnosis and management in oncology, cardiovascular, pain etc
    • Unresolved political and regulations issues
    • Quality concern of generics & counterfeits
    • Government tenders favour local manufacturers
    CAGR 6.6 % CAGR 12.9 % APAC Share 750 825 866 909 Source: Frost & Sullivan. 24.6 % 28.5% Pharma Revenues, US$ Bn, 2009-2012
  • 14. Japan Pharmaceuticals & Biotech Market Enrichment of Pipeline and Diversification by M&A Activities Pharma & Biotech Revenues, US$ Bn, 2009-2012 Market Drivers Market Restraints
    • Lowered profits for branded and generic drugs owing to regular price reviews
    • M&A challenges
    • Patent Expiration Problems
    • Growing demand for lifestyle diseases drugs e.g. hypertension ,diabetes, oncology, anti-infectives
    • Industry’s commitment to develop biosimilars
    • Strong commitment and investment in R&D.
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 15.
    • Cardiovascular disorders, alimentary canal & metabolism and general anti-infectives remained the top selling therapeutic categories in Japan, registering 2008 sales of $14.6bn, $9.6bn and $6.5bn respectively.
    • Prevalence of diabetes : 2010 : ~8 mn. Potential for diagnosis and treatment as nearly 20% of cases are undiagnosed
    • Japan generics market 2010 : ~ US$ 4 bn; CAGR ~ 10%
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    Bio-pharmaceuticals, Vaccines Cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, Generics Oncology
    • Japan Oncology market in 2009 : ~ US$ 1 0 Billion; CAGR ~ 14-15%
    • Growth from early diagnosis of cancers and specialised therapies
      • Targeted therapies (Avastin etc)
      • Adjuvant therapies (Xeloda etc)
      • Supportive therapies (Neutrogin etc)
    Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Pharmaceuticals and Biotech Market
    • 2009 : biopharmaceuticals identified as a growth engine for the Japanese pharma sector. Targeted therapies and antineoplastics & immunomodulating agents are expected to record the highest growth with CAGR of 19.8% and 10.1%, respectively, over the forecast period.
    • Somatropin BS formed the first biosimilar to launch in Japan. Cervarix, Prevenar and Januvia formed the most awaited vaccine drugs to receive Japanese approval in 2009.
    • Vaccines offer tremendous potential (MMR, Inactivated Polio, Rotavirus). 4% of global sales.
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 16. APAC Medical Equipment Market Transition to a mindset of monitoring 59.4 65.4 72.0 79.4 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost and Sullivan Market Drivers
    • Safety, accuracy, efficiency, cost
    • Automation and integration with information systems
    • Emphasis on early detection and monitoring
    • Silver industry requirements
    Market Restraints
    • Regulatory and reimbursement hurdles
    • Inadequate distribution networks
    • Inadequate training on and compliance to new technology
    Source: Frost & Sullivan. Medical Equipment Revenues, US$ Bn, 2009-2012
  • 17. Japan Medical Equipment Market Focus on technology that provides integrated medical care Medical Equipment Revenues, US$ Bn, 2009-2012 Market Drivers Market Restraints
    • Demand for advanced and innovative medical equipment
    • Ageing population
    • Increased prevalence of chronic and lifestyle diseases
    • Increasing Funding Gap (~US$ 200 Billion by 2020?)
    • Strong reliance on imports in relation to domestic manufacture
    • High currency fluctuations
    CAGR 3.6% 35.8 37.9 40.2 42.7 Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 18. Source: Diabetes Australia Integrated Medical Care: De Facto Standard in Not-for-Profit Hospitals Contribution of Advanced Technology to Cancer Patients Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 19. Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Medical Equipment Market General Surgery Clinical Diagnostics Medical Imaging
    • Growth in High end Surgical Planning, Simulation & Image Guided as consumers demand personalized treatment and services
    • Mandatory wellness checks and screening boosts CR & DR, CTA & MRA devices
    • Shortage of Radiologists drive thin client technology, advanced image processing tools
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
    • Demand for Orthopedic, Gastro-intestinal, Urology, Cardiovascular, Neurosurgery and Pulmonary devices is being driven by increased prevalence of chronic and age related diseases .
    • Demand for devices used in ICU and related departments is growing at a slower place (bed penetration is less than 1%)
    • Increased demand for POCT and laboratory automation products
    • Demand for Diabetes management tests, HbA1c, heart failure detection BNP, including NT-proBNP and lipid metabolism management index LDL-C has been increasing steadily. Influenza test kit was in enormous demand in 2009
    • Demand for personalized medicine/testing has started to ramp up
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  • 20. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost and Sullivan *Healthcare IT includes: Software, Hardware, IT services and Lifesciences IT Asia Pacific Lifesciences and Health IT Market* Interoperability challenges hinder adoption Market Drivers Market Restraints
    • Operational efficiency
    • Strong and sustained demand for healthcare services
    • Consumer demand for quality and access to information
    • Interoperability
    • Integration
    • Lack of skilled resources
    CAGR 7% CAGR 11.3% APAC Share 50.6 54.6 58.4 62.5 Source: Frost & Sullivan. 14.5% 15.7% Lifesciences & Healthcare IT, US$ Bn, 2009-2012
  • 21. Japan Health IT Market EMR/EHR fast becoming the norm Health IT Revenues, US$ Bn, 2009-2012 *Health IT includes: Software, Hardware, IT services, Networking Market Drivers
    • Several Government initiatives Eg. e-Japan Strategy All medical institutions are obligated to adopt this online claim system by 2011.
    • Both Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) under pressure to aggressively coordinate HER initiatives among hospitals and clinics in each region.
    Market Restraints
    • Insufficient regulation on free-standing providers
    • Lack of standards and interoperability
    • Immense customization required to map individual hospital clinical workflows
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 22. Electronic Health Record Materials Management, Asset Tracking Solution Telemedicine Top Growth Opportunities : Japan Health IT Market
          • Japan market 2010 (Materials Mgmt) : ~US$ 200 mn; CAGR ~5%
          • Growing demand for patient centered healthcare services and systemized healthcare organization management through the implementation of advanced healthcare systems
            • Japan market 2010 ( Outreach and Remote care delivery: Home Health and Tele-Medicine/Tele-Health) : ~US$ 134 mn; CAGR ~2%
            • The popularity of this segment can be contributed to the aging population, lack of hospital bed capacity and the increased need for home care for patients with chronic conditions. The country is also encouraging initiatives to increase communication between physician, pharmacies and patient for delivery of orders, prescriptions and payment.
    Source: Frost & Sullivan.
          • Japan market 2010 (EHR) : ~US$ 600 mn; CAGR ~ 3.5%
          • Japan is moving towards a government-centered EHR system. The installation of EHR systems, especially for clinical use such as medical digital imaging reference functions are increasing in clinics and hospitals.
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  • 23. Summary : Best Opportunity Analysis APAC and South Korea
  • 24. Co-existing Customer Segments Source: Frost & Sullivan.
  • 25. Where to place your bets in Japan : 2010- 2012 Source: Frost & Sullivan. Advanced Image Processing Surgical Planning Oncology Drugs Time Growth Generics Personalised Testing EMR/EHR Medical Imaging (CRA, MRA etc) INNOVATION TRIGGER SUPER GROWTH NORMALISATION LEADERSHIP Vaccines General Surgery Cardiovascular Drugs
  • 26. Decision Support Database
    • Total Health Expenditure
    • Private Health Expenditure
    • Government Health Expenditure
    • Percent Healthcare Expenditure in GDP
    • Population Aged Above 65
  • 27. Decision Support Databases
  • 28. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 29. Decision Support Databases (Contd…) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 30. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 31. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 32. Decision Support Databases (Contd…) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 33. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 34. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 35. Decision Support Databases (Contd…) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 36. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 37. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 38. Decision Support Databases (Contd…) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 39. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 40. Decision Support Databases (Contd…)
  • 41. Decision Support Databases (Contd…) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 42. About Frost & Sullivan
  • 43. Who is Frost & Sullivan
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      • Over 1,700 Growth Consultants and Industry Analysts across 32 global locations
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