AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific
 

AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific

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Frost & Sullivan analysis of the AMI market in Asia Pacific

Frost & Sullivan analysis of the AMI market in Asia Pacific

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    AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific AMI market opportunities & challenges in Asia Pacific Presentation Transcript

    • AMI Market Opportunities & Challenges in Asia Pacific Presented at World Smart Grids Seminar 2010 Seoul, South Korea 19 May 2010 Presented by Subbu Bettadapura Associate Director – Energy & Power Frost & Sullivan
    • Agenda 1 AMI Introduction and Value Chain 2 AMI Benefits & Features 3 AMI Technology Trends & Evolution 4 Key Industry Challenges 5 APAC Market Size and Cost breakdown 6 Key Growth Countries and Market Dynamics 2 2
    • Legacy System vs AMI Systems Consumer Metering Utility Electricity Utility Meter Cannot communicate One-way to/from communication consumer Consumer Metering LAN WAN MDMS Utility HAN In home Display Smart RF MESH CDMA MDMS Meter PLC GSM Utility BPL AMI Two-way communication 3
    • AMI Value chain Consultants System Integrators Installation Contractors Home Area Wide Area MDMS Smart Meter Network (HAN) Network (WAN) Zigbee, Home plug Local Area Data collection & WiFi, Z-Wave, Network (LAN) Public/Private Process and storage Wavenis, RF mesh, PLC, BPL, Network store meter Digitalstrom WiMax, GPRS data Major Players Major Players Major Players Major Players GE, Landis+Gyr, PRI, GridConnect, Freescale, Itron, eMeter, Itron, Elster, SSN, EKA Elster MicroChip SAP Systems, TrilliantMeter Vendors Communication Vendors IT Vendors Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
    • AMI Technology UpdateIT systems Data Management Communication Network & application Server( Outage, servers Tariffs, Geography) (GPRS, GSM, EDGE,RF, Power line) Meter Management Meter Data Management Source: Frost & Sullivan 5
    • Advanced Metering Benefits Reduced Energy bills Reduced meter reading errorsReduced billing errors Reduced meter reading costs Prepayment option Half Hourly usage data Physical privacy for consumers 6
    • AMI Operational Benefits Avoided meter reading costs and field services are the two main benefits of AMISource: Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation, New York State Electric and Gas Company 7
    • AMI Features 1 Record at least Hourly Usage of data 2 Remote reading and also ability to manually read 3 Remote connection and disconnection 4 Two-way communication and Communication path to in-home display 5 Visual display on meter 6 Meter settings reconfiguration (remote) 7 Tamper detection 8 Outage notification 9 Prepayment option 10 Time of use 11 Load Control 12 Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation) 8
    • AMI Technology Evolution Demand Response Outage Notification Energy Management Systems Remote Connect/ Real time Disconnect Time of use communication In-HomeRemote meter Display reading Remote Meter Configuration 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan. 9
    • AMI – Communication Technology Options Communication is a vital factor for smart meters Communication OptionsGPRS, GSM, SMS, RF Mesh Power Line WIFI, DSL WIMAX, UMTS Network Carriers Wavenis Open Source Alliance Source: Frost & Sullivan 10
    • Technology Trends – Communication TechnologyPenetration 2010 2015 2020 RF GPRS AMI Technologies PLC WiMAXLow Medium High Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
    • Advanced Metering - Industry Challenges Risk on information security clouding consumers judgment Fear of losing power over load control by the utilities Initial upfront cost and cost recovery Issue of ”Stranded Assets” and evolving technology Lack of Standard Protocols and Interoperability Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
    • AMI – Roll out Cost breakdown for Projects Smart Meter and its installation form the majority of cost involved in AMI implementationSource: Frost & Sullivan 13
    • Asia Pacific AMI Market Size • Total APAC AMI market is expected to generate a cumulative demand of 41 million meter units by 2017 • The market is estimated to generate revenues of about US$12.5 billion from 2009 through 2017 Asia Pacific AMI Market size (USD million) • The market is estimated to have a 2500.00 2000.00 700.00% 600.00% CAGR of 69.32% for the period from % growthUSD million 500.00% 1500.00 400.00% 300.00% 2009-2017 1000.00 200.00% 500.00 0.00 100.00% 0.00% • The growth will be fuelled by AMI activity in Australia, New Zealand, 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year Asia Pacific AMI Market Size (USD millions) % grow th South Korea, Japan and Taiwan Source: Frost & Sullivan 14
    • Drivers and Restraints - Australia Drivers Restraints 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020Government Mandate Rapidly changing technologyEnhanced Customer Lack of standardsinformationOperational Efficiency Rising cost to consumers Impact High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan. 15
    • Australia Australia AMI market size - 32.6 million USD, 2009 3.26 Victorian government is at the forefront of AMI roll out First to mandate the rollout of 13.04 smart meters across the state Victoria and New South Wales are scheduled to complete the rollout by 2013 Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network RevenueSource: Frost & Sullivan 16
    • Drivers and Restraints – New Zealand Drivers Restraints 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020Demand side participation Rapidly changing technologyCompliance deadline Lack of standardsof 2015Highly competitive & Ageing workforceDeregulated market Impact High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan. 17
    • New ZealandNew Zealand AMI market size - 35 million USD, 2009 3.5 AMI rollout not regulated by the government An aggressive market-led 14 rollout The main network technologies being deployed are RF mesh and GPRS Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network RevenueSource: Frost & Sullivan 18
    • Drivers and Restraints – Taiwan Drivers Restraints 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020Reduced energy wastage RegulationReduction in peak load Lack of standardsReduction in Green House Lack of fundingGas emissions Impact High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan. 19
    • Taiwan Taiwan AMI market size - 0.25 million USD, 2009 0.03 Taiwan moving at a fast pace for smart meters and related components 0.1 Plans to enter the international market with its products in the next 3-4 years AMI is in its pilot stage in Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue Taiwan currentlySource: Frost & Sullivan 20
    • Drivers and Restraints – South Korea Drivers Restraints 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020Energy Security Rapidly changing technologyBoosting technology export Lack of standardsSmart grid implementation Lack of private funding Impact High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan. 21
    • South Korea South Korea AMI market size - 25 million, 2009 2.5 South Korea plans to start installing smart meters nationwide by 2012 Lagging behind other 10 developed nations in smart meter deployment (only 4% penetration) Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue Power Line Carrier (PLC) is the main technology beingSource: Frost & Sullivan deployed 22
    • Drivers and Restraints – Japan Drivers Restraints 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020Infrastructure for EVs No clarity on technology to deployDeveloping new industries Efficient gridand enhanced servicesIntegration of renewable Vertically integrated powerenergy into grid suppliers Impact High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan. 23
    • Japan Japan AMI market size 16 million USD , 2009 1.6 AMI activity is just beginning in Japan Kansai Electric has just started a planned 12 million smart meter rollout 6.4 Tokyo Electric is doing a pilot for 90,000 meters Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue Other utilities in the early stages of pilots/planningSource: Frost & Sullivan 24
    • Key Growth Markets – SEA/NA & Pacific Japan Market size of 4.16 billion USD over the next 9 years CAGR of 85% from 2009- 2017 South Korea Market size of 3.15 billion USD over the next 9 years CAGR of 71% from 2009- 2017 Taiwan Market size of 600 million USD over the next 9 years CAGR of 137% from 2009- Australia 2017 Market size of 4.02 billion USD over the next 9 years New Zealand CAGR of 70.45% from 2009-2017 Market size of 525 million USD over the next 9 years CAGR of 35% from 2009-Source: Frost & Sullivan 2017 25
    • Summary of Key FindingsThe Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%(2009-2017)The growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long termSingapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionalityThailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities forcommercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll outSome of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technologyupgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architectureMajor market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out 26
    • Thank You Q&A 27
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    • For Additional Information Donna Jeremiah Mi Ok Lee Corporate Communications Corporate Communications Asia Pacific Asia Pacific - Korea +603 6204 5832 +82 2 6710 2033 djeremiah@frost.com Miok.lee@frost.com Subbu Bettadapura Associate Director Asia Pacific Energy & Power +603 6204 5800 sbettadapura@frost.com 29