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Africa in the Global Energy Framework
 

Africa in the Global Energy Framework

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There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa, however the continent is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand.

There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa, however the continent is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand.

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    Africa in the Global Energy Framework Africa in the Global Energy Framework Presentation Transcript

    • Africa in the Global Energy Framework
      March 2011
      Ross Bruton, Research Analyst
      Energy and Power Systems
      Africa
    • Discussion Guideline
      Forecast Timeline for the Global Energy Market
      Global Investment Profile into Key Base Infrastructure
      African Electricity Generation and Consumption
      The African Energy Mix
      African Electricity Demand and Supply Analysis per Region
      The Asian Influence in the African Market
      Key Market Challenges and Drivers Influencing the African Electricity Market
      Key Messages
    • Forecast Timeline for the Global Energy Market, 2010 - 2030
      Key Challenges
      2020
      2025
      2030
      2010
      2015
      Fuel Supply and Cost
      Demand for Liquid Fuel falling after 2015
      Energy from Waste in Emerging Markets
      Coal Reaches almost 45% of Energy Consumption, following Growth in India and China
      Resurgence of Nuclear
      Continued Acceleration of Coal Fired Power
      Growth of Natural Gas Kept in Check by High Gas Prices
      Acceleration of Natural Gas
      World Energy Demand
      World Energy Demand Almost Double 2000 Levels
      Growth Dominated by India and China
      Long Running Boom in Russia
      Developing Countries Pass 40% of Electricity Demand
      Electricity Generation Passes 30 trillion kWh
      Growth Resurgence in All Regions
      China Overtakes the US as the Worlds Biggest Emitter of CO2
      Environmental Issues
      Accelerated Investment in Carbon Capture and Storage
      World CO2 Emissions Reach 40 Gt
      20% Renewable Energy in Europe
      Significant Growth in Renewables
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • Level of Investment Into Key Infrastructure, 2005 – 2030 (Billion USD)Power infrastructure represents the key area of investment for Africa
      Total Forecast Investment, USD
      $22,160bn
      $9,000bn
      $7,800bn
      $1,590bn
      Europe
      Water
      Power
      Road and Rail
      Air/Sea Ports
      North America
      Middle East
      Asia/Oceania
      South America
      Africa
      Even after this investment, demand will still outstrip supply - there is room for ongoing investment on the same scale over the period to 2050
    • Africa Generation and Consumption of ElectricityAfrica accounts for 3.1% of global generation and 2.9% of consumption
      Net Electricity Generation in Africa by fuel, 2009
      (Percentage)
      • Africa generates approximately 3.1% of total world electricity generation and consumes 2.9% of total consumption
      • Growth of electricity generation on the continent is expected to remain largely dependent on fossil fuels
      • However, renewable energy programs are being developed in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the North African Region
      Net electricity generation in Africa by fuel, 2007-2035,
      (TWh)
      Net Electricity Consumption in Africa by fuel, 2009
      (Percentage)
      Source: EIA
    • African Energy MixTotal Generation Capacity in Africa Amounted to Approximately 161300MW in 2010
      Feedstock Distribution (Africa), 2010
      • Southern Africa utilizes coal as its primary feedstock in electricity production
      • Hydro power is the primary resource available for electricity production in Central and East Africa, with diesel and geothermal resources also utilized in the East
      • Due to the significant abundance of hydrocarbon deposits in West Africa, the major resource for energy production in these regions is natural gas and liquid fuels, primarily diesel
      • This is also the case for North Africa, however natural gas represents the region primary feedstock for electricity generation
      Coal
      Percentage Share of Generation Type, 2010
      Gas
      Hydro
      Diesel
      Oil
      Nuclear
      Geothermal
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
      Source: EIA
    • African Electricity Demand and Supply AnalysisIncreases in investment in energy and power is expected to increase supply security in Southern Africa
      Growth in Installed Capacity 2010 - 2014
      • Growth in installed capacity is expected at an average CAGR of 7.89% for 2010 to 2014
      • Most significant growth expected in North Africa
      • Forecast CAGR of 9.16%
      • Market expected to be stunted in the near term due to instability in the region
      • Reserve margins below take into account nominal generation capacities without consideration for lower plant efficiencies
      • When this is considered, a significant demand/supply gap is apparent for the continent
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
      Supply and Demand per Region, 2010
      (% Indicates Reserve Margin)
      Forecast Supply and Demand per Region, 2014
      (% Indicates Reserve Margin)
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • The Asian InfluenceThe total value of committed Asian investment in Sub-Saharan African was $4.9 billion in 2008
      Investment by Asian Countries in the Sub-Sahara African Electricity Sector, 2008
      Over $800 million
      Over $500 million
      Over $200 million
      Over $40 millionUnder $40 million
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
      In 2008, China Exim Bank was the leading Asian project financer accounting for 90.3% of committed investment in the year
    • Key Challenges Facing the Energy Market
      Key Market Challenges and Drivers to the Energy Market in Africa, 2011
      Challenges Faced
      Political Instability
      Funding Constraints
      Decentralisation of National Power Markets
      Shortage of Supply
      Increased Investment from the East
      Interconnection of Power Pools
      Abundant Supply of Renewable Resources
      Interconnection of Power Pools
      Market Drivers
      Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • Key Messages
      • There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa
      • Africa is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand
      • The development of regional power pools and trading mechanisms represents a greater security of supply to many regions
      • Emission reduction is not a key concern for the majority of African countries, however, this may be dictated through loan conditions set by international monetary funds
      • New investment into the sector from China represents a significant opportunity for market development
      • Where from here?