Africa in the Global Energy Framework

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Africa in the Global Energy Framework

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There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa, however the continent is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand.

There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa, however the continent is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand.

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  • 1. Africa in the Global Energy Framework
    March 2011
    Ross Bruton, Research Analyst
    Energy and Power Systems
    Africa
  • 2. Discussion Guideline
    Forecast Timeline for the Global Energy Market
    Global Investment Profile into Key Base Infrastructure
    African Electricity Generation and Consumption
    The African Energy Mix
    African Electricity Demand and Supply Analysis per Region
    The Asian Influence in the African Market
    Key Market Challenges and Drivers Influencing the African Electricity Market
    Key Messages
  • 3. Forecast Timeline for the Global Energy Market, 2010 - 2030
    Key Challenges
    2020
    2025
    2030
    2010
    2015
    Fuel Supply and Cost
    Demand for Liquid Fuel falling after 2015
    Energy from Waste in Emerging Markets
    Coal Reaches almost 45% of Energy Consumption, following Growth in India and China
    Resurgence of Nuclear
    Continued Acceleration of Coal Fired Power
    Growth of Natural Gas Kept in Check by High Gas Prices
    Acceleration of Natural Gas
    World Energy Demand
    World Energy Demand Almost Double 2000 Levels
    Growth Dominated by India and China
    Long Running Boom in Russia
    Developing Countries Pass 40% of Electricity Demand
    Electricity Generation Passes 30 trillion kWh
    Growth Resurgence in All Regions
    China Overtakes the US as the Worlds Biggest Emitter of CO2
    Environmental Issues
    Accelerated Investment in Carbon Capture and Storage
    World CO2 Emissions Reach 40 Gt
    20% Renewable Energy in Europe
    Significant Growth in Renewables
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 4. Level of Investment Into Key Infrastructure, 2005 – 2030 (Billion USD)Power infrastructure represents the key area of investment for Africa
    Total Forecast Investment, USD
    $22,160bn
    $9,000bn
    $7,800bn
    $1,590bn
    Europe
    Water
    Power
    Road and Rail
    Air/Sea Ports
    North America
    Middle East
    Asia/Oceania
    South America
    Africa
    Even after this investment, demand will still outstrip supply - there is room for ongoing investment on the same scale over the period to 2050
  • 5. Africa Generation and Consumption of ElectricityAfrica accounts for 3.1% of global generation and 2.9% of consumption
    Net Electricity Generation in Africa by fuel, 2009
    (Percentage)
    • Africa generates approximately 3.1% of total world electricity generation and consumes 2.9% of total consumption
    • 6. Growth of electricity generation on the continent is expected to remain largely dependent on fossil fuels
    • 7. However, renewable energy programs are being developed in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the North African Region
    Net electricity generation in Africa by fuel, 2007-2035,
    (TWh)
    Net Electricity Consumption in Africa by fuel, 2009
    (Percentage)
    Source: EIA
  • 8. African Energy MixTotal Generation Capacity in Africa Amounted to Approximately 161300MW in 2010
    Feedstock Distribution (Africa), 2010
    • Southern Africa utilizes coal as its primary feedstock in electricity production
    • 9. Hydro power is the primary resource available for electricity production in Central and East Africa, with diesel and geothermal resources also utilized in the East
    • 10. Due to the significant abundance of hydrocarbon deposits in West Africa, the major resource for energy production in these regions is natural gas and liquid fuels, primarily diesel
    • 11. This is also the case for North Africa, however natural gas represents the region primary feedstock for electricity generation
    Coal
    Percentage Share of Generation Type, 2010
    Gas
    Hydro
    Diesel
    Oil
    Nuclear
    Geothermal
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
    Source: EIA
  • 12. African Electricity Demand and Supply AnalysisIncreases in investment in energy and power is expected to increase supply security in Southern Africa
    Growth in Installed Capacity 2010 - 2014
    • Growth in installed capacity is expected at an average CAGR of 7.89% for 2010 to 2014
    • 13. Most significant growth expected in North Africa
    • 14. Forecast CAGR of 9.16%
    • 15. Market expected to be stunted in the near term due to instability in the region
    • 16. Reserve margins below take into account nominal generation capacities without consideration for lower plant efficiencies
    • 17. When this is considered, a significant demand/supply gap is apparent for the continent
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
    Supply and Demand per Region, 2010
    (% Indicates Reserve Margin)
    Forecast Supply and Demand per Region, 2014
    (% Indicates Reserve Margin)
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 18. The Asian InfluenceThe total value of committed Asian investment in Sub-Saharan African was $4.9 billion in 2008
    Investment by Asian Countries in the Sub-Sahara African Electricity Sector, 2008
    Over $800 million
    Over $500 million
    Over $200 million
    Over $40 millionUnder $40 million
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
    In 2008, China Exim Bank was the leading Asian project financer accounting for 90.3% of committed investment in the year
  • 19. Key Challenges Facing the Energy Market
    Key Market Challenges and Drivers to the Energy Market in Africa, 2011
    Challenges Faced
    Political Instability
    Funding Constraints
    Decentralisation of National Power Markets
    Shortage of Supply
    Increased Investment from the East
    Interconnection of Power Pools
    Abundant Supply of Renewable Resources
    Interconnection of Power Pools
    Market Drivers
    Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 20. Key Messages
    • There is currently a large deficit of electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa
    • 21. Africa is planning significant investment into the energy sector due to increasing demand
    • 22. The development of regional power pools and trading mechanisms represents a greater security of supply to many regions
    • 23. Emission reduction is not a key concern for the majority of African countries, however, this may be dictated through loan conditions set by international monetary funds
    • 24. New investment into the sector from China represents a significant opportunity for market development
    • 25. Where from here?