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2013 Automotive Industry Outlook Frost & Sullivan

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The presentation discusses OEMs’ strategy initiatives to excel in the target markets and segments, highlights the growth markets and attractive segments in the industry and summarises a technology …

The presentation discusses OEMs’ strategy initiatives to excel in the target markets and segments, highlights the growth markets and attractive segments in the industry and summarises a technology outlook for 2013. The presentation also encompasses opportunities in the aftermarket segment and the revelation of the expected winners in the industry for this year. The web conference benefits global car manufacturers, suppliers, leasing companies, dealers, mobility players and aftermarket players to understand the trends and forward looking projections of the Global Automotive Market for 2013.

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  • 1. 2013 Automotive Industry Outlook: Learn the 5 Bold Predictions and Trends OEM Expected to Cross 10 Million Sales, Another to be Acquired Mohamed Mubarak, Martyn Briggs, Program Manager, Program Manager, Mobility Automotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation February 5, 2013© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property ofFrost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  • 2. Today’s Presenters Mohamed Mubarak Martyn Briggs, Moosa, Program Manager Program Manager Frost & Sullivan Frost & SullivanA Consultant with about 7+ years of experience in Experienced Automotive & Transportation consultantstrategy consulting and research across Automotive and Project Manager, working with clients tosector. My current focus areas are related to tracking implement growth strategies. My current workingnext generation distributive business models & focus is related to Mobility networks and associatedinnovations, megatrends impacting Automotive Mega Tends, considering the role of technology andsector, urban mobility, and the markets in emerging forecasting new market opportunities.countries. Based in Istanbul, I currently manage theresearch and consulting activities of Frost &Sullivan, Turkey. 2
  • 3. Focus Points of Our Presentation Today1. Top Key Predictions and Trends for 20132. Market Growth Forecasts3. Highlight Key Growing Markets, Customer Segments, Models And Opportunities For Industry Players 3
  • 4. Poll QuestionWhich OEM do you think has all the right strategies in place to reach the10 Million vehicle sales in 2013?A. ToyotaB. VolkswagenC. General Motors 4
  • 5. Briefly Discuss Occasion for the Analyst Briefing• Urgency of the topic: There were over 80 million light vehicles sold across the globe in 2012, with total vehicles on our roads crossing the 1 billion mark for the first time in history.• Newsworthiness of topic: Our Automotive outlook reports are designed to showcase the previous year’s performance, whilst delivering key insights and highlighting growth opportunities for the years ahead• How this will affect the participants: Our analyst briefing will provide a comprehensive insight of future automotive trends, highlighting key growth markets, customers to focus on, evaluate competition and this will allow our clients to identify uncontested growth opportunities 5
  • 6. Top 5 Key Predictions for 2013 China is expected to sell 20 million vehicles and U.S. is expected to cross the 15 million mark We expect to see an OEM sell over 10 million units Frost & Sullivan expects at least one inter brand JV this year between OEMs and possibly consolidation or a M&A On-line vehicle retailing to take off in 2012 with OEMs implementing an omni channel strategy to sell more vehicles digitally Autonomous Driving to be the most exciting topic of Research and Development in 2013 with a possibility of a trial test in sub-city condition going live by end of 2013/early 2014 6
  • 7. Top 5 Market Trends Budget car Luxury Small / Mobility Increase in syndrome is market to Compact reinventing leasing back grow in BRIC SUV’s and the contracts and Crossovers automobile new business Industry models for vehicle leasing 7
  • 8. Global Light Vehicle Sales by Region in 2013 – A Snapshot China to cross 20 million sales and U.S. to reach15 million mark, while the market in Europe will still be in red Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle Sales, Global, 2012-2013 3.9% YoY growth (2012-13) ~ 83.5 Million80.4 Million 2013 Western Europe Western South Europe America Other Indonesia 1 OthersSouth America Units (Million) Others Korea North AmericaNorth America India Middle East Japan Middle East Eastern EuropeEastern Europe Mexico Canada Argentina Others Poland Spain UK Asia Asia China Others USA Other Italy France Turkey Others Brazil Germany Russia Iran Africa Africa Note: Africa - South Africa Asia - Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New Zealand Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine Middle East – Egypt, Iran North America - Canada, Mexico, USA South America - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
  • 9. Global Medium and Heavy CV Market Forecast 2013: Despite Strong Headwinds for Markets Such as Western Europe and North America, Improving Chinese Manufacturing Indices and Strength in BRIC and Next 11 Countries Will Elevate MCv and HCV Sales to Over 2.9 Million by 2013 Global CV Outlook 2013: Unit Shipments, Global, 2012 and 2013 4.3 % YoY Growth MCV HCV~2.8 million 1,200,000 ~2.93 million 2013 Regional Shares 1,000,000 35 % 34 % 800,000 85.1 % 600,000 66 % 400,000 65 % 200,000 0 2012 North South China India Russia Western Next 11 RoW 2013 America America Europe Next 11 includes countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 9
  • 10. Indonesia and the Global Context – 2012 Among the major passenger car markets of the world, Indonesia has climbed up two places to the 13th position Automotive Industry Outlook: Top 21 Automotive Markets, Global, 2011-2012 7% In 2012 Indonesia was one of three fastest growing car markets in the world 13.8%Units (Million) Jump from 18th to 13th rank 22.8% 3.4% -3% 5% 10% -13.3% -21.0% 5% 56.0% -5.5% 6.5% -8% 8.0% -13.4% 39.3% 9.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 10
  • 11. Global Light Vehicle Sales by OEM in 2013 – A SnapshotEuropean OEMs banking on the growth in Emerging markets to offset the downturn in Europe Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Global, 2012-2013Who can reach the 10 Million Vehicle sales in 2013? Volkswagen Group 8.90% Toyota Group 1.54% General Motors Group 4.57% Renault-Nissan Group 4.17% Hyundai Group 3.99% Ford Group 6.47% Fiat-Chrysler Group 2.10% Honda Group 8.44% PSA Group 4.00% Suzuki Group -1.09% Other Chinese Manufacturers 22.86% BMW Group 2.57% Daimler Group 6.95% Tata Group 12.34% Geely Group 19.35% 0 6 12 2013 2012 Units (Million) Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 11
  • 12. Budget Car Syndrome is Back Renault aims to sell about a million vehicles from its Dacia brand in 2013, especially in the emerging markets like Russia and LATAM – What are the other OEMs upto? Automotive Industry Outlook: Sales of Dacia Brand Vehicles, Global, 2012-2013 Close to $4,000, 12,000 No / few safety features 1 Million 600 - 800cc and 4 Door 5 Seater 850 Thousand Others Close to $8000Unit Sales (Thousand)) 8,000 Others Most safety features incl. Duster 800cc and 4 Door 4 Seater Duster Less than $12,000 Logan 4,000 Logan Sedan Safety Features Incl. Sedan 1400cc and 4 Door 4 Seater Sandero Sandero $7,700 to $14,000 0 4 Door 4 Seater, Compact model car 2012 2013 1.0 to 1.4L Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 12
  • 13. Global SUV and Pick-Up Market - Toyota expected to continue to dominate all key SUV and Pickup segments while Ford and GM are expected increase share within each market segment through new launches. About 20-23 sub-compact and compact models are expected to be launched in 2013 Automotive Industry Outlook: SUV and Pickup Market by Segments, Global, 2013 8,000 Small/compact SUV’s and Cross-overs to account for 6,000 about 50% of total SUV and Pickup market Unit Sales (thousands) 4,000 2012 2013 2,000 - A - BASIC B - SUBCOMPACT C - COMPACT SUV - SUV P - PICKUPYoY Growth Rates 159.3% 9.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.6% (‘12-’13) 13
  • 14. Key OEMs Strategy for Luxury Car MarketGrowth in the BRICs boost the share of European OEMs in the Luxury vehicle market, which is expected tobe replicated by Tata and Geely Automotive Industry Outlook: Luxury Vehicle Market -Top 10 Luxury OEM by Market Share, 2012 Luxury OEMs US G5 Brazil Russia India China Global BMW Group 19% 33% 26% 21% 36% 25% 26% Volkswagen Group 10% 28% 15% 21% 27% 36% 23% Daimler Group 16% 25% 24% 17% 26% 19% 20% Toyota Group 14% 1% 0.04% 9% - 6% 7% Geely Group 4% 4% 11% 11% 3% 4% 6% Tata Group 3% 5% 24% 14% 8% 4% 5% General Motors 10% 0.01% - 1% - 2% 3% Group Honda Group 9% - - - - 0.48% 3% Renault-Nissan 6% 0.21% - 6% - 1% 2% Group Fiat-Chrysler Group 0.01% 3% 0.15% 0.06% - 0.11% 2% Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 14
  • 15. Outlook of Global Carsharing 2013 Globally carsharing expected to cross 3 million members and 70,000 vehicles (cumulative). Like Paris, Seoul city government to launch 492 cars in February 2013 Carsharing Vehicles & Members (World), 2012 Country Members Vehicles Ratio Europe 0.94 Million 25,650 35.3 North America 1.12 Million 18,800 59.6 Asia Pacific 0.28 Million 9,800 28.6 South America 1,500 60 25.0 Worldwide 2.3 Million 54,310 42.3 What’s next in 2013? • Daimler Car2Go targets expansion • Tradional CSOs such as Zipcar and by addition of B2B customers Greenwheels are expected to expand to other densely populated cities in Europe • AVIS Budget’s Zipcar acquisition • Autolib to invest the additional funding one of the potential many in 2013. secured to strengthen fleet to 3,000 cars; add 200 underground stations • To another 162,000 member and • DB plans to add foldable Hiriko micro- 3,500 vehicles mobility to its fleet in 2013. • Toyota aggressive on expansion • Both Car2Go and BMW’s Alphacity to • Launches expected in Chinese push growth in B2B segmentSource: Frost & Sullivan Analysis markets 15
  • 16. Evolution of the Bricks and Clicks Model in New Car RetailingRetail model will evolve from a single/multiple channel to an integrated cross-channel model Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2010) Conventional dealership model Google search Mobile apps Online car configurator The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) Interactive Stores Mobile Stores Flagship Stores (motion sensor displays) (ambient mobile (modern retail) retail) Images used soley for illustration. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 16
  • 17. Body Styling Strategy of OEMs Bold, sleek and panoramic designs to change the face of automotive body styles Reasons Model Examples a) Electrification of powertrains EVs and Connectivity helping designers to take advantage of space benefits and design cars that meet future mobility needs b) Bold, Aggressive Looks As emerging economies are expected to contribute over 55% of car sales by 2020, A and B segment cars are redesigned with bold, trendy and aggressive looks to attract next generation young consumers who are more attracted towards smart, connected and social devices. c) Longer wheelbase, sleek and inspired from past designs Premium and sports vehicles are designed with longer wheelbase, sleek and shape inspired from 1960-70’s vehicles d) Sophisticated and shape Changing Cars In the future we could see cars that can fly, fold, change size and shapeSources: Media websites. Images used for illustration purposes only, Frost & Sullivan analysis 17
  • 18. Global Powertrain Mix by Region in 2013 [Sales] – A SnapshotGasoline to remain the main fuel account for 3/4ths of the global market; Diesel growth only in Europe Global Automotive Industry 2013: Light Vehicle Sales, Global, 2013 ~70 Million* EVs, 2013 Full Hybrids, Mild Hybrids. 0.3%Units (Million) Alt. Fuels 4.9% Diesel, Gasoline, Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. * - Sales in China, Japan, India, Eastern Europe, North America, South America and Western Europe only 18
  • 19. Global Electric Vehicle Sales – 2012The sale of electric vehicles has increased by over 154% and 109,700 units have been sold globally in 2012as compared to 43,000 sold in 2011 Automotive Industry Outlook: Electric Vehicle Sales, Global, 2012Electric Vehicle Market: Breakdown by Region, Global, 2012 Electric Vehicle Market: Breakdown by EV Type Japan Unclassified 20% 4% USA NEV BEV China 48% 1% 50% 10% Europe eREV 22% 29% Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 19
  • 20. Global Light Vehicles in Operation World record of 1bn cars on road in 2012, a historical achievement, creating huge opportunity for aftermarket. Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicles in Operation by 450 1.28 1 Billion VIO Country, Global, 2020 Billion VIO 400 Japan Others Others 350 Asia 300 Asia Vehicles (Million) 250 China Eastern Europe Eastern Europe 200 United States Germany Western Western Austrailia Europe 150 Italy Europe France 100 Russia South Africa United Kingdom India South Spain Turkey North North America America50 Canada Argentina Poland Others America 28.7 Others Others Others Mexico Brazil 331.8 0 2012 North South Western Eastern Asia Others South 2020 America America Europe Europe America 33.9NOTE: Asia includes: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New ZealandEastern Europe includes: Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia,Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, UkraineNorth America includes: United States, Canada, Mexico,South America includes: Argentina, Brazil,Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland, UK Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012 Source: LMC Forecasting / Frost & Sullivan 20
  • 21. Key Conclusions Global sales are expected to grow by 4 percent to reach 83.5 Million vehicles. US market is expected to reach 15 million and China to cross 20 Million by sales ASEAN offers significant opportunity to Global Automakers in the near to medium term 2013 Global Compact vehicle segment is expected to be the most attractive Automotive segment accounting for over 29% share. SUV and luxury Market vehicle market is expected to push the growth in both U.S. and China Carsharing is expected to cross 3 Million membership globally. OEMs aggressive in entering and expanding the carsharing network 2013 will be another year focusing on the mobility apps while we will start witnessing the phase of transition from handwriting recognition to gesture recognition systems. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 21
  • 22. Global Team Franck Leveque Dominik Buszta Jason Huang Europe CEE China Masaki Honda Japan Lisa Whalen North America Vita APAC Melih Nalcioglu PolandMichel Johanson V G Ramakrishnan LATAM India Kudzanayi Bangure Africas 22
  • 23. Next StepsDevelop Your Visionary and Innovative Skills Growth Partnership Service Share your growth thought leadership and ideas or join our GIL Global Community Join our GIL Community Newsletter Keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities 23
  • 24. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive Structure?Emerging Trends?Strategic Recommendations?Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation. 24
  • 25. Follow Frost & Sullivan onFacebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 25
  • 26. For Additional InformationKatja Feick Mohamed MubarakCorporate Communications Program ManagerAutomotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation+49 (0) 69 7703343 +90 212 709 8804 Extn: 132katja.feick@frost.com mohamedm@frost.comMartyn Briggs Cyril CromierProgram Manager – Mobility VP SalesAutomotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation0044 (0)207 915 7830 +33 1 4281 2244Martyn.briggs@frost.com Cyril.cromier@frost.com 26