2012 ICT Outlook - The Overall ICT Perspective


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Frost & Sullivan briefing on the Overall ICT Perspective for 2012

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2012 ICT Outlook - The Overall ICT Perspective

  1. 1. Outlook 2012:The Overall ICT Perspective Nitin Bhat
  2. 2. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2011 2 ICT Outlook 2012 2
  3. 3. 2011 State of the Industry: Summary1. Telecom Operators are struggling to find growth in their core business – voice2. Bigger threats are looming – OTT platforms hit Telco core e.g. SMS revenues3. Data revenue growth has been robust for most markets; however data deluge has cost challenges4. Telecom operator margins are declining so profitable data growth is key5. Smartphone and Tablets shipments showing rapid growth in the year 2011 (~ 150 mn smartphones and ~ 5 million tablets)6. Cloud computing continued to gain momentum in the region with > 40% growth in revenues accruing to public cloud providers7. Overall unified communication growth of around 9 percent with double digit growth in conferencing, mobility, IM/presence and services8. It is expected that the total IT spending would grow by around 7-8 percent in the year 2011 with IT consumerization, cloud ready architecture, analytics and social media as top of mind concerns9. Fiber deployments in developed countries gained momentum in 2011 due to both private sector initiatives and government-driven National Broadband Networks; early LTE deployments in 201110. Pure play IPTV to Smart TV gained momentum on back of massive shipments in smart TVs 3
  4. 4. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2 ICT Outlook 2012 4
  5. 5. #1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass acrosssmartphones and tablets Global Trends Asia Pacific Trends ~ 480mn Tablets ~ 380mn Netbook PCs ~ 150mn ~ 155mn Netbook Tablets Smartphones PCs Desktop Desktop Smartphones PCs PCs 2011 (e) 2011 (e)• Globally in Q4 2010, smartphone & tablet shipments exceeded desktop & PC shipments• In the Asia Pacific region, we expect the shift to happen by end of Q4 2011/Q1 2012 5
  6. 6. #1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass acrosssmartphones and tabletsMass market phase will aggravate the challenges for operators, vendors andenterprises alike Device Driven Market Seeding Mass Market Phase Networked Society growth Upto 2008 2011- 2015 2015+ 2009-11 Video driving the growth Wide penetration of • More mobile BB of mobile date traffic devices and networks • Initial seeding to devices than fixed BB monetize 3G devices Data Traffic per user Cross industry business networks (Moore’s Law): Doubling models • Packet data exceeded nearly every 18 months • Flat rate as a voice data on mobile Information ubiquity demand simulation networks in 2010 Smartphone is mass mechanism market • Apps are the new internet 80% of internet users to have mobile internet IT needs to support such devices Initial creation of new business models – healthcare, automotive 6
  7. 7. #2: Platform play across the ICT sector would thecritical value generator3 ecosystems are converging in the mobile computing ecosystem with diverseapproaches 1990s 2000s 2010s 2015 2020s Collision PhaseConvergence Phase Computing Client-Server PC as PC as Cloud Cycle Computing Workhorse Entertainme Computing Web nt/Personaliz OS ed Laptops/Netboo ks Tablets Mobile Mobile 2G Based Fixed BBSmartphone Mobile Cloud Customized Cycle Comm Growth s internet Tablets/phone s Apps Soft SIMs Internet Cycle Email/ Web Web Web 3.0 + 2.0 Aug Reality Digitization – Digital Video overtook Mobile devices Graph not to scale content overtook analog static pages sold> Fixed content devices 7
  8. 8. #2: Platform play across the ICT sector would thecritical value generatorBy 2015 there will 2-3 platform choices for each need and 2-3 overall integrated platforms.Microsoft acquired Skype in 2011 and we can expect to see more action in the coming year.In Asia Pacific, SKT re-organized to SKT and SK Planet to focus on platform businessglobally. Apple’s platform Google platform Communication Facebook Inhouse? ?? Skype Platforms (Acquired) Entertainment Itunes /app Youtube Xbox/PS3 Platforms store Hulu ? Information Platforms Akamai Google Microsoft? (monetized by ads) Visa NFC NFC PayPal Commerce Platforms enablement enablement Operator alliance Participation/SNS Facebook Twitter ? Platforms Experience Platforms MS-Nokia? Android RIM (Acquired?) – OS + Web 8
  9. 9. #3: Real use cases in the business environment drivenby enterprise social networking Asia Pacific Enterprise Social Networking SoftwareEnterprise-grade solutions for Market 70Social Collaboration emerging in 120% 60the market 100% Revenue Growth Rate (%) Revenues ($ Million) 50 80% 40Market adoption to see sharp 30 60%increase in 2012 20 40% 10 20% 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total MarketCIOs wary of IT policies on Growth % 5.2 11.0 110.5% 20.9 89.3% 34.2 64.0% 62.8 83.7%information sharing, access to Challenges with Social Collaboration Adoptioninformation across theorganization & securityLack of successful case studies &demonstrating clear ROI has beenanother challenge 9
  10. 10. #4: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide optionsfor high speed access Fixed Broadband 3G/LTE 343mn 1bn 212mn 466mn 2011(e) 2014(f) 2011(e) 2014(f)• The fixed broadband market continues to grow in Asia Pacific region despite of the heavy penetration of 3G/LTE.• MBB through dongles will touch 41mn in 2011 and reach around 100mn by 2014 10
  11. 11. #4: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide optionsfor high speed accessLot more LTE deployments expected in 2012 and 2013 2012 2012 2012 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 KEY CHALLENGES:  Limited Device Range  Lack of Subscriber Adoption 2012  Spectrum  QoS/Indoor Coverage Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 11
  12. 12. #5: “Internet of Things” will further accelerate as more andmore devices, equipment and gadgets get connected creatingopportunities for value creation and new business models The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things „S‟ Citizen „S‟ Business „S‟ City Planning „S‟ Buildings „S‟ Mobility „S‟ Energy • 8-10 Devices per home • 5-6 Devices per individual • 500 per sq km • Universal Remote • Touch as the default input • Smart cities mechanism 6 bn 30 bn 44 bn• Rapid commercialization of enabling technologies• Demand for such services in select sectors driven by productivity requirements• Emergence of early business models to monetize the opportunity 12
  13. 13. #6: Big Data and Analytics will see reaching the chasm in2012 and get deployed through variety of platforms and beenabled by emerging technologiesData is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade; Data from machinecommunication and IOT is expected to exceed social media in the next half decade Contextual Mining Growth Areas @ Analytics  Queries, Network  Reporting, analytics, Operations performan Research ce &  Advance analytics, Utilization  CRM analytics,  Data warehouse generation  Organization financial / Big strategy analytics  In-line and predictive analytics Data Sentiment  Move more towards cloud Industry Analysis & Specific Text Solution Analytics Security 13
  14. 14. #7: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in AsiaPacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be thenew battleground in the cloud computing industryHybrid clouds lead the way; Cloud adoption growing at a rapid pace 6,000 5,807 16% 5,000 3% 4,284 4,000 US$ millions 71% 29% 3,132 3,000 10% 2,224 2,000 1,575 Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud 1,124 1,000NoteSurvey done with IT Managers and CIOs in 0Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Singapore 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015and Malaysia in Q2 2011. 64% with >500employees and 36% with 200 to 499employees. APEJ Cloud Computing is market expected to grow at 39% for the 2010- 2015 period. 14
  15. 15. #7: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in AsiaPacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be thenew battleground in the cloud computing industry The cloud value chain will disintegrate and consolidate later Yr1 Yr7 Current View (2010) Interim View (2011-12) End game Software Software Reseller Reseller Device Presentation SaaS Application Management Tenancy Managers Preferred PaaS partnershi 2-3 end ps of SPs Platform to end with cloud software ( players Brokers/Aggregators retail model) IaaS Synchronization Hosters/Infrastructure Source: Frost & Sullivan 15
  16. 16. #8: Telco transformation will evolve as more and moretelcos come under revenue growth pressure even acrossthe emerging marketsTelecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth Telecom Transformation Services/Business Network Customer Mgmt Organizational Transformation Transformation Transformation Transformation Protect/ New Revenues Reduce cost per bit Increase agility Be ready • Enterprise ICT • Segmentation of • Faster rollout of • Process re-engineering Services mobile broadband services • Cloud • Knowledge acquisition • Data Centers • Demand and pricing • Customer centricity • Mgd services management • Metric definition • Unified comms • Automation/ IT Factory • Migration to LTE • Appifying Services • Backhaul optimization • Devices • IP Migration 16
  17. 17. #8: Telco transformation will evolve as more and moretelcos come under revenue growth pressure even acrossthe emerging marketsMetamorphosis of networks – Small is Big Mi-fi devices at the consumer end • MiFi devices can make any device network-agnostic allowing GSM, CDMA and WiMAX carriers to offer any Wi-Fi enabled device. • Offloading data traffic will ease strain on existing 3G networks. Small Cells– rapid scaling of sites Femtos • Light Radio pioneered by ALU, HP and • USB drive form factor for Freescale shows how SDR, VLSI and smart femtos power management will change the scale and scope of BTS • Femtos can be added to • Antenna collapsed into the cell – the cube can other devices like gateways be as small as 10 cms 17
  18. 18. #9: Enterprise communications would become richer, morecollaborative and increasingly move towards the cloud Improving Declining Telecom Infrastructure Costs Rich Communications - Pervasive video Shift from Capex Increasing - Context & presence aware to Opex GlobalizationConsumerization Generation Yof IT Collaborative Cloud workforce - Native and new Communications - Conferencing - ESN 18
  19. 19. #10: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum astelcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry todrive growth, value and margins in the future. Urban Planning Healthcare Automotive SMART LIVING Electric Vehicles SMART PUBLIC SPACE Financial Services Retail ***** Virtual Shopping Consumer Electronics Energy Biotechnology From 2D to 3D HDTV Morphing Solar PV Cells Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) 19
  20. 20. #10: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum astelcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry todrive growth, value and margins in the future. following 4Cs are the key pillars/conditions to build a Enabler play edificeThe Co-Create Co-Market Co-Deliver Co-Exist Web 2.0 philosophy  Re-jig marketing  Define your delivery  Accept real and Consumers to channels with focus differentiator sustainable revenue Prosumers on digital channels  Borrow and add to sharing approaches With new partners in  Lend and borrow the co-creator’s  Focus on real-time the eco-system “brand equity” differentiator and automation Add to the value of  Use partners across  Define roles and  Leverage the co- the other creators the value chain responsibilities based existence of on actual technology to deliver competences convergence  Define SLAs 1. Increasing commoditization 2. Disruptive Innovation not led by traditional ICT players 3. Competencies can stretch at best to adjacent markets 20
  21. 21. Thank YouGlobal Growth Partnership Company 21
  22. 22. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, andTwitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 22
  23. 23. For Additional InformationDonna Jeremiah Carrie LowCorporate Communications Corporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific Asia Pacific+603 6204 5832 +603 6204 5910djeremiah@frost.com carrie.low@frost.comJessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 0942jessie.loh@frost.com 23