ICT Outlook 2011

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Frost & Sullivan outlook of ICT market in Asia Pacific

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ICT Outlook 2011

  1. 1. ICT Outlook 2011 Seoul 22nd February, 2011
  2. 2. Agenda • 09:00 – 09:30 : Outlook 2011: The Overall ICT Perspective, Nitin Bhat, Partner & Head of ICT Practice • 09:30 – 10:10 : Telecoms Outlook 2011 Jayesh Easwaramonmy, Vice President, • 10:30 – 11:10 : Cloud Computing: What is in Store? Nitin Bhat • 11:10 – 11:40 : Collaboration: What is the Outlook? Sunghoon Hong, Consultant • 11:40 – 12:00 : Q&A and End of Briefing 2
  3. 3. Outlook 2011: The Overall ICT Perspective Nitin Bhat
  4. 4. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2 ICT Outlook 4
  5. 5. #1: Aggressive phase of Mobilization gains momentumValue of Mobility exceeds the Value of incremental bandwidth at home Market Seeding Phase Data Deluge phase 2015 Pre 2008 2008-10 Voice centric Packet data exceeded Multi-device world voice data on mobile networks in 2010 Smartphone is mass Initial seeding to market -Smartphones monetize 3G networks Growth driven by large to be 60% of mobile screen – PC centric sub base in APAC and early rise of smartphones Developed markets to carry 8-10 IP devices More mobile BB Internet of things devices than fixed BB devices 5
  6. 6. #2: Tablet PCs are a game changer for both consumers andenterprisesAfter a brief slowdown in 2009, globally the PC market is expected to retain animpressive pace of growth 500 Global PC Sales (Units) 384.0 400• The proportion of Mobile PCs (including 351.3 292.7 Laptops, Notebooks, Netbooks, Tablet PCs) 300 271.2 287 239.4 has surpassed that of Desktop PCs 218.5 200 100• Currently the share of Tablet PCs is estimated at around 10% of the Portable PC market 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 Forecast Incremental Market Share• The most common applications of the tablet for PCs are for consumers to access “content” 70% 57% 60% 62% 63% 63% (reading, video, games) online and offline 60% 50% 39% 40% 32% 29% 25% 22%• Apple will have a commanding share of global 30% 20% 15% market while initiatives by NEC, Dell, Toshiba, 4% 8% 10% 12% 10% Samsung will accelerate the device adoption 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tablet PCs Portable PCs (minus Tablets) Desktop PCs 6
  7. 7. #3: IPTV in its current form is dead on arrival IPTV only works if Smart TV Started off with simple Comparable channels premise – I want Youtube on to cable – Korea, my TV France , HK Regulatory issues Is now getting integrated cleared with apps world like the smartphone Content must provide clauses Leading to new business If not IPTV is not a models like LG – Orange or comparable TV LG –DIvX TV services and the on- demand feature is not Looks like TV manufacturers high on consumer will use global scale to demand ‘capture aggregation value’ 7
  8. 8. #4: Touchscreen ubiquity is redefining user experienceDrivers • Falling Prices • Ease of integration of touchscreen ICs Mobile Phones • Improvements in building technology PCs Mobile Internet Devices Banners and Hoardings Tourism and Entertainment 8
  9. 9. #5: Telco wholesale business models are evolvingA pure play wholesaler is born • Broadband as a national utility and GDP accelerator • Financial returns • Change in market structure to facilitate investments • New models of infrastructure development especially on OSS BSS to help RSPs flourish • Pure spread play necessitates service innovation with prudent cost management • Different Models – BT Wholesale, Opennet , Chorus (NZ) • Commercial emulation through JVs – KPN/Reggefiber, other European JVs 9
  10. 10. #6: Telcos are evolving to smart enable businesses Telecom as a Predominantly Telecom inside Smart enabler sector consumer focused Transform to Enable Illustrative Marketing & Advertising Consumer Over the Top Experience Segment Content Delivery ICT services Business Cloud paradigm Segment Industry enhancement 10
  11. 11. #7: Increasing adoption has created a > US$1.1 billion CloudComputing market APAC ex Japan Cloud Computing Market Size, 2010 100% = US$1.1 billion 9% 1% 90% SaaS IaaS PaaS Source: Frost & Sullivan With a 90% share of the market, SaaS is the dominant segment of the Cloud market in the Asia Pacific region. 11
  12. 12. #7: Almost one-fourth of enterprises in APAC have startedusing Cloud Computing Adoption level and type of cloud Amongst cloud users, 91% use SaaS, 69% IaaS, 47% PaaS. 1/3rd of cloud users currently use all three. Points to a decreased time to adoption amongst existing users 10% 7% 77% 23% 6% Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud N = 330 Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
  13. 13. #8: Social Networks + Collaboration is driving richercommunication in an enterprise Synchronous • Web Collaboration Cloud • Video Conferencing Services Big • Project Management & Opportunity? Team Collaboration • Social Applications (Wikis, Blogs, Communities etc.) Social • Content Management Apps solutions Asynchronous 13
  14. 14. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2 ICT Outlook 14
  15. 15. Top 10 Mega Trends for the future1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities2. E-Mobility: Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 20203. Social Trends: Geo Socialization and Generation Y4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare6. RoboSlaves: Pervasive robotic technology with AI7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology8. Innovating to Zero!: Zero Emission Technologies9. Emerging Transportation Corridors10. Healthcare economics inflection: Shift to prevention and monitoring from diagnosis and treatment 15
  16. 16. #1: The next 10 years would be very different from thelast 10 years Till 2010 Till 2020 80 5 Growth in Penetration connected 6 0.9 devices Connected devices (bn) Connections (bn) Explosive 4-5% >12% Mature Growth growth Telecom Acquisition focused Smart enabler Telecom inside Outside 16
  17. 17. #2: Future of Telcos, well, it will be a “?”“Google wants telcos to deliver networkswith the service quality and security neededto produce a great end-user experience (ofGoogle).” Dr. Eric Schmidt, Google CEO Innovation mostly happening outside telcos Commoditization of networks accelerates • Fixed line – 100 yrs • Mobile voice – 20 yrs • Mobile data – 10 yrs • Cloud computing – 5 yrs Telco stocks – are becoming a dividend ““Some people” want AT&T to act as a dumb play pipe that just keeps getting bigger and bigger.” Former AT&T CEO Ed Whitacre 17
  18. 18. #3: Shift from PC to Mobile Computing Era is perfect storm • By 2015, Mobile • Appification of BB users will be all Telco services twice of fixed BB by 2015 users • Over 2 mn apps Open OS Platforms Increasing Encouraging penetration of Development of Mobile Devices; a range of Greater than PCs applications End-to-End Virtualization Maturity of Reducing • 2 GHZ of several Demands from technologies processing Consumer Power with rapid Devices • Soft SIMs to be a advances in reality battery and • LTE screens • Augmented • Tablets to be 16% Reality of base 18
  19. 19. #4: IPTV will move to Smart TV as part the broader SmartHome evolutionSmart TVs will account for 50% of the developed market TVs by 2013 Swapping of content from TV Manufacturer Portals OTT Set Top Box based Mobile to TV 19
  20. 20. #5: Wholesale models will cover greater areas of networkinfrastructureA mobile operator today is faced with complex challenges Passive Infrastructure Mobile emulates fixed Leading to a change in Sharing – broadband economics of mobile broadband Common Tower Co – GTL Backhaul Kbps per provisioned user Pay as you go At 4-5 GB per month 1 Avg = 200 MB Flat rate with fair usage policy Transmission Avg =1 GB 40 Infrastructure Sharing – ... Evaluated/Commercial /Backhaul Monetization – Current 3 Fully unlimited package Pooling – Avg = 3-5 GB Net4Mobility JV -4G , MBNL • 12-15 times increase in backhaul capacity 3G (Tmobile and 3), • More number of cells to manage RAN capacity Heavy p2p users • Limited availability of spectrum Active Sharing/ Pure MB/month/user Wholesale – Harbinger Capital , TOT MVNOs 20
  21. 21. #6: The connected future would be drive significant changesaround business models, GTM strategies and margins The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business ‘S’ City Planning ‘S’ Buildings ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Energy • 8-10 Devices per home • 5-6 Devices per individual • Smart cities • Universal Remote • Touch as the default input mechanism 6 bn 20 bn 24 bn 21
  22. 22. #7: Cloud Computing Model will see Acceleration and willdrive further IT commoditization Factors driving market transition : - Inefficient IT usage - Ubiquitous broadband - Increasing commoditization of IT resources PC / Client-Server Internet Era Cloud Computing Mainframe Era Era - Ubiquitous access Era - Hardware focused - Prominence of - “Webification” of - Utility basis - Centralized software Apps - Multi-tenant - Dumb terminals - De-Centralized - Enterprise mobility - Self-service - Power to the user 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s Source: Frost & Sullivan 22
  23. 23. #8: Collaborative Communications would be further drivenby the pervasiveness of video in the enterprise Augmented Collaboration Video Conf/ Pervasive TelePresence Enterprise Video Social Software Web Conf 3D/ Virtual Audio Presence Conf Hosted UC IM/Presence Context & Email Presence-Aware Processes IP Tel KTS/PBX 2000 2010 2015 Source: Frost & Sullivan. 23
  24. 24. Global Growth Partnership Company 24
  25. 25. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, andTwitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 25
  26. 26. For Additional InformationDonna Jeremiah Mi Ok LeeCorporate Communications Corporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific Asia Pacific - Korea+603 6204 5832 +82 2 6710 2033djeremiah@frost.com Miok.lee@frost.comNitin BhatPartner Asia PacificICT+65 6890 0999nbhat@frost.com 26
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