Proven oil reserves by regionFigure 35. World proved oil reserves by geographic region as of January 1, 2010million barrels Middle East Mideast has more proven North America oil than rest of world Central & South America combined. Africa "Worldwide Look at Eurasia Reserves and Production,‖ Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2009 ), pp. 22-23. Asia World Total: 1,354 Billion Barrels Europe 0 200 400 600 800
Proved oil reserves by country billion barrelsSource: The World Factbook 2009. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009.
Oil reserve burn rate by country burn rate (annual production of proved reserves)Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Oil discoveries falling behind productionSource: Colin Campbell, ASPO International
China demand driving increased consumption ofworld liquid fuels
Vehicles per thousand people by countrySource: U.S. Department of Energy, Petroleum and Emissions Data, Transportation Energy Databook, 2010
U.S. DOE estimate of world liquid fuel supply,2008-2030Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Projected production of global oil and gas liquidsSource: 2007 Survey of Energy Resources ,World Energy Council
Glo Average Annual Crude Oil ProductionGlobalmbpd 2002-2011
Deepwater drilling at increasing depth, risk andcost
Tar-sands oilCambridge Energy Research Associates:"Growth in oil sands production has been the main driverin making Canada the largest supplier, by far, of foreign oilto the United States.But the growth potential is much bigger—volumes couldbe as much as three to four times higher in 2030 than in2009."
Tar sands of Canada: landscape before and after
Hauling tar sands
Oil depletion is an economic concept:Only a fraction of non-conventional oil can beproduced at a cost of oil we can afford to burn
Environment Research Letters 1 (October– December 2006) Risks of the oil transition A E Farrell and A R Brandt, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA
Top strategies for reducing oil consumption• Increasing fuel economy of vehicles• Reducing vehicle miles traveled – Better urban design, walkable and bikable places to live – Better infrastructure for public transportation• Substitute new fuels for oil – Electricity – Biofuels— preferably, non-conventional, non-food – Natural gas
Global passenger vehicle standardsSource: International Council on Clean Transportation
U.S. infrastructure investment,Gas prices/taxes by country U.S. investment in infrastructure, % GDP $ per litre, 4/2011Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Automobile Association, European Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration:Japanese Oil Information Centre, Natural Resources Canada
Michael Noble email@example.com 612-963-1268 (cell) 651-726-7563 (office) On Twitter: @NobleIdeasAre you a member of Fresh Energy? Please join us in the adventure.
Canadian oil sands extraction faces challengesSource: ―Scraping Bottom: The Canadian Oil Boom,‖ National Geographic photo essay, 2009
World liquid consumption forecast, 2007 and 2035Figure 27. World liquids consumption by region and country group, 2007 and 2035million barrels per day North America 27 16.76 Non-OECD Asia 32 15 OECD Europe 14 8 OECD Asia 2007 8 2035 5 Central and South America 8 6 Middle East 11 Non-OECD Europe and 5 Eurasia 5 3 Africa 5 0 10 20 30 40 EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009), web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. 2035: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).
Annual average natural gas prices, 1990-2035 2009 dollars per thousand cubic feetSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
Renewable energy cost trends Levelized cents/kWh in constant $2,000 40 10 COE cents/kWh 30 0 80 20 60 10 40 0 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 10 70 15COE cents/kzWh 60 8 12 50 6 40 9 4 30 6 20 3 3 10 0 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Analysis Office. Updated 2002
Levelized cost of new power generation resources(coal, gas, renewables) range for total system levelized costs (2009 $/megawatt-hour)Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
Solar PV declining prices to converge with rising grid price Electricity prices ($/kW-hr) U.S. average (8.6 cents/kWh)Based on the work of Stephen O’Rourke, Deutsche Bank
Delivered coal prices, 2000-2009 Nominal dollars per short tonSources: Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2009, DOE/EIA-0121(2009/Q4) (Washington, DC April2010); Coal Industry Annual, DOE/EIA-0584, various issues; and Annual Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0584(2003), various issues; Electric PowerMonthly, March 2010, DOE/EIA-0226 (2010/03), (Washington, DC); and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Monthly ReportEM 545" and "Monthly Report IM 145."