3. Proven oil reserves by region
Figure 35. World proved oil reserves by geographic region as of January 1, 2010
million barrels
Middle East Mideast has
more proven
North America oil than rest
of world
Central & South
America
combined.
Africa
"Worldwide Look at
Eurasia Reserves and Production,‖
Oil & Gas Journal, Vol.
105, No. 48 (December
24, 2009 ), pp. 22-23.
Asia
World Total:
1,354 Billion Barrels
Europe
0 200 400 600 800
4. Proved oil reserves by country
billion barrels
Source: The World Factbook 2009. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009.
5. Oil reserve burn rate by country
burn rate
(annual production of proved reserves)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
14. Tar-sands oil
Cambridge Energy Research Associates:
"Growth in oil sands production has been the main driver
in making Canada the largest supplier, by far, of foreign oil
to the United States.
But the growth potential is much bigger—volumes could
be as much as three to four times higher in 2030 than in
2009."
17. Oil depletion is an economic concept:
Only a fraction of non-conventional oil can be
produced at a cost of oil we can afford to burn
18. Environment Research
Letters 1 (October–
December
2006) Risks of the
oil transition A
E Farrell and A
R Brandt, Energy
and Resources
Group, University
of
California, Berkeley,
CA
19. Top strategies for reducing oil
consumption
• Increasing fuel economy of vehicles
• Reducing vehicle miles traveled
– Better urban design, walkable and bikable places to
live
– Better infrastructure for public transportation
• Substitute new fuels for oil
– Electricity
– Biofuels— preferably, non-conventional, non-food
– Natural gas
21. U.S. infrastructure investment,
Gas prices/taxes by country
U.S. investment in infrastructure, % GDP $ per litre, 4/2011
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Automobile Association, European Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Japanese Oil Information Centre, Natural Resources Canada
22.
23. Michael Noble
noble@fresh-energy.org
612-963-1268 (cell)
651-726-7563 (office)
On Twitter: @NobleIdeas
Are you a member of Fresh Energy? Please join us in the adventure.
24. Canadian oil sands extraction faces challenges
Source: ―Scraping Bottom: The Canadian Oil Boom,‖ National Geographic photo essay, 2009
25. World liquid consumption forecast,
2007 and 2035
Figure 27. World liquids consumption by region and country group, 2007 and 2035
million barrels per day
North America 27
16.76
Non-OECD Asia 32
15
OECD Europe
14
8
OECD Asia 2007
8
2035
5
Central and South America
8
6
Middle East
11
Non-OECD Europe and 5
Eurasia 5
3
Africa
5
0 10 20 30 40
EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009), web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. 2035: EIA, World Energy
Projection System Plus (2010).
26. Annual average natural gas prices, 1990-2035
2009 dollars per thousand cubic feet
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
27. Renewable energy cost trends
Levelized cents/kWh in constant $2,000
40 10
COE cents/kWh
30 0
80
20
60
10
40
0 20
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0
10 70 15
COE cents/kzWh
60
8 12
50
6 40 9
4 30 6
20
3 3
10
0 0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Analysis Office. Updated 2002
28. Levelized cost of new power generation resources
(coal, gas, renewables)
range for total system levelized
costs (2009 $/megawatt-hour)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
29. Solar PV declining prices to converge with rising grid price
Electricity prices ($/kW-hr)
U.S. average
(8.6 cents/kWh)
Based on the work of Stephen O’Rourke, Deutsche Bank
30. Delivered coal prices, 2000-2009
Nominal dollars per short ton
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2009, DOE/EIA-0121(2009/Q4) (Washington, DC April
2010); Coal Industry Annual, DOE/EIA-0584, various issues; and Annual Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0584(2003), various issues; Electric Power
Monthly, March 2010, DOE/EIA-0226 (2010/03), (Washington, DC); and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Monthly Report
EM 545" and "Monthly Report IM 145."
Editor's Notes
new
Another way to look at energy security is to compare the countries production to their proven reserves, and calculate a burn rate. While it is intuitive that increasing domestic production increases energy security, even current rates of production at 5.5M barrels a day, the US will exhaust its conventional oil reserves in 6.5 years. One might be tempted to look to increasing exploration to extend that depletion time.
Unfortunately, discovery of large new sweet crude oil reserves in the US and US waters is highly improbable. This graphic shows global discovery of oil by year, dating back to 1930. This is not an official government or industry chart, but is the work of an association of retired oil industry engineers, and others who study oil depletion. It is an indicator that the geology of the matter is this: even with very advanced technologies that can find remote oil in the polar regions, or 5 or more miles below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, the 5 years in which the global oil industry discovered the most oil were 1964, 1963, 1962, 1949 and 1948. Since 1990, the world has consumed oil faster than it finds it, with no major oil finds on the horizon—and the gap continues to widen.
Indeed, this fundamental reality is the largest driver of oil prices, although some fraction of the oil price rise can be attributed to Mideast instability and speculation, it is very instructive that as we come out of the deepest recession since the 30s, the price of oil quickly moves back up over $100. On September 20 this AM, oil prices opened at $109, up from an average price of $60 in May 2010.
okay
new
Other than the environmental challenges Canadian oil faces, former Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief economist and oil industry analyst Jeff Rubin argues that the economic barriers are significant. “Sure, there is 170 billion barrels of it there, and there is 500 billion barrels in the Orinoco heavy oil belt, but that is not the issue. Depletion is not just the geological concept, it is more fundamentally an economic concept. Because if the cost of extracting that oil from the tar is greater than we can afford to burn, it doesn’t matter how many billion barrels of oil there are in the tar sands.” Some major fraction of the heavy non-conventional oils will be left in the ground, because they cannot be produced at prices we can afford to consume them
The need for transportation infrastructure that supports alternatives to oil is increasing, but U.S infrastructureinvestment has had a 50-year decline. Americans annually invest less than 2.5 % of GDP in infrastructure capital and operations, although the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reports that 7% could be invested with positive benefits for the economy. EU and China infrastructure investments 5% and 9% GDP annually (capital alone). US has very low gasoline taxes compared to other industrialized nations, a key contributing factor to low investment. (Reported in The Economist.)
