Hunger and food security      in the 21st centuryFrank Rijsberman, CEO CGIAR Consortium, November 2, 2012
Overview• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing  humanity in coming decades• Sustainable intensification: growing m...
Food Insecurity and UndernutritionRemain Persistent: 850M hungry people                                                   ...
Food Price Spikes put Food Security        back on the agenda Inflation-adjusted prices of maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, a...
Land Grab in Africa: 30 million ha                                          BIDCO acquires                                ...
Green Revolution: Intensification in Asia   Decades of cheap & plentiful food   Development of semi-dwarf, high-yield,   a...
Transfer of natural salt tolerance from Oryza coarctata   a wild species that grows well in brackish water                ...
Global Cereal Yield Trends, 1966-2009                                                                                     ...
Plateau in Yields of Major Grains                      8                                            8                     ...
For food prices to remain constant, annual        yield gains would have to increase    •   From 1.6% to 2.4% for maize   ...
Our Ability to Grow Food is at risk
Coffee in                                         ColumbiaFrom an environmental point of view a 2 °C increase equals a dif...
Humanity’s Greatest Challenge                                                              Producing 70%                  ...
Sustainable Intensification            • 75% from land already in use            • By small-scale farmers,              ma...
CGIAR Consortium A strategic partnership dedicated to advancing science to address the central development challenges of o...
CGIAR Centers and Locations2012: $850M, 8900 staff, 50 countries
Crop yield gap - Rice• IRRI, ideal conditions  3 crops of 7 t/ha:        21t/ha/yr• Philippines, irrigated:  2 crops of 4 ...
Water Productivity    remains very low over most areasWP (estimated potential - typically 1-2 kg/m3)WP (estimated actual -...
What is the science potential ?• Life Science Revolution – molecular biology   • Molecular markers for marker aided select...
DNA Sequencing Costs Plummeting:Life sciences more dynamic than IT                               10-5 human               ...
CGIAR Research Agenda
CGIAR Research Program on Rice• 120 million rice farmers feed 3.5 billion people• 1 billion people extremely poor and 650 ...
=> Increase rice production that is affordable to poorand profitable to farmers (and value chain)But… future: less and mor...
Science partnerships                                                                 Development partnershipsTheme 1 -----...
Product: Submergence-tolerant rice                              Swarna-Sub1                           17 d submergence    ...
Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected; FR13A                                       Gene bank screened; FR13A i...
Swarna-Sub1 Timeline inin India and B’Desh                                      + NFSM, State                             ...
New Products: “2 in 1”   Submergence + salinity tolerance              12 million ha salt affected10 days submerged       ...
A4NHHow Can Agriculture Improve Nutrition & Health?  •   Improve nutrition quality and food safety in value      chains fo...
A4NH Micronutrient Crops                 Cassava                           Pearl Millet                 Provitamin A      ...
CGIAR Research Program Climate ChangeTechnologies, practices, partnerships, and policies for:                             ...
Farms of the Future                                      With World                                       Climate         ...
Farms of the Future             Journey to Beora’s Plausible FuturesBlog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climat...
Congo Basin: Africa’s last rainforests                   Success Story: Capacity building    Increased focus among partner...
CGIAR Genebanks                                   Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationThe genetic diversity treasure chest
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation                                  International collections
Genebank Samples Distributed per Year                                                                                     ...
ACIAR Impact Assessment of CGIAR             • Australian ACIAR 2011               impact assessment of IRRI’s            ...
Upswing in CGIAR Investment              1,100        CGIAR Total Funding Trends                                  Nominal ...
Conclusions• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing  humanity in coming decades• Revitalizing agriculture after deca...
THANK YOU
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Rijsberman rotary - food security 10-11-2012

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Presentation on Hunger, Food Security as defining issue of our time at Rotary North Sea Institute, Amsterdam, Nov 11, 2012

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Rijsberman rotary - food security 10-11-2012

  1. 1. Hunger and food security in the 21st centuryFrank Rijsberman, CEO CGIAR Consortium, November 2, 2012
  2. 2. Overview• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades• Sustainable intensification: growing more food with less land and water• Promising science• CGIAR results and impacts
  3. 3. Food Insecurity and UndernutritionRemain Persistent: 850M hungry people Prevalence of Micronutrient 2011 Global Hunger Index Deficiencies GHI components: Deficiencies in: • Proportion of undernourished • Iron • Prevalence of underweight in children • Vitamin A • Under-five mortality rate • Zinc 20 countries have alarming or extremely alarming levels of hungerSource: von Grebmer et al. 2011 Source: HarvestPlus 2011 Shenggen Fan | December 2011
  4. 4. Food Price Spikes put Food Security back on the agenda Inflation-adjusted prices of maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and oil 1990–2011 Source: IFPRI
  5. 5. Land Grab in Africa: 30 million ha BIDCO acquires 26,500 hectares for a palm oil plantation in Uganda, displacing thousands of smallholder farmers Credit: FoEI / ATI - Jason Taylor
  6. 6. Green Revolution: Intensification in Asia Decades of cheap & plentiful food Development of semi-dwarf, high-yield, and disease-resistant varieties, 1960s-70s Increased fertilizer use Massive investment in irrigation CIMMYT
  7. 7. Transfer of natural salt tolerance from Oryza coarctata a wild species that grows well in brackish water 15 years of crossing produced 1 viable plant! F1 BC1 IR56 IR56 O. IR56 x O. (No Salt) (EC 24 ) coarctata IR56 x O. coarctata//IR56 coarctata (EC 24) (EC 24) (EC 24)
  8. 8. Global Cereal Yield Trends, 1966-2009 2009 5 corn: 1.3% Corn yieldGrain yield (t ha ) -1 -1 slope = 64 kg ha y-1 4 1966 (~1 bu ac-1 y-1) rice: 1.3% Rice yield -1 -1 slope = 53 kg ha y 3 corn: 2.8% wheat: 1.4% Wheat yield rice: 2.9% 2 -1 -1 slope = 40 kg ha y wheat: 2.9% 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: FAOSTAT Year
  9. 9. Plateau in Yields of Major Grains 8 8 12 USA-irrigated Rice Wheat MaizeGrain yield (t ha ) 10-1 6 R.Korea 6 Northwest Europe China 8 USA-rainfed 4 Indonesia 4 China 6 4 China 2 India 2 India 2 Brazil 0 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Year Stagnating yields for: • rice in Korea, Japan, California and China • wheat in northwest Europe, Great Plains USA • maize in China, France, Italy and irrigated maize in the USA
  10. 10. For food prices to remain constant, annual yield gains would have to increase • From 1.6% to 2.4% for maize • From 0.9% to 1.5% for rice • From 1.1% to 2.3% for wheat • On essentially the same land area, with less water, nutrients, fossil fuel, Climat e labor and as climates change change Wat er, nut rient & energy scarcit y Projected demand by 2050 (FAO) Diseases World-wide average yield Linear extrapolations• First concerns: late 1990s of current trends (t ons ha-1 )• The more we delay investments, Potential effect the steeper the challenge of climate- change-induced heat stress on today’s cultivars (intermediate Agronomy Breeding CO2 emission scenario) Year
  11. 11. Our Ability to Grow Food is at risk
  12. 12. Coffee in ColumbiaFrom an environmental point of view a 2 °C increase equals a difference of 440 masl and major shifts of crops to new areas
  13. 13. Humanity’s Greatest Challenge Producing 70% more food by 2050, UN, K.Park without destroying the environment CIAT, N.Palmer CIAT, N.Palmer CIAT, N.Palmer
  14. 14. Sustainable Intensification • 75% from land already in use • By small-scale farmers, majority women • Where the food is consumed • In a climate smart way CIAT, N.Palmer
  15. 15. CGIAR Consortium A strategic partnership dedicated to advancing science to address the central development challenges of our time: 4 Objectives: • Reducing rural poverty • Improving food security . • Improving nutrition and health • Sustainably managing natural resources
  16. 16. CGIAR Centers and Locations2012: $850M, 8900 staff, 50 countries
  17. 17. Crop yield gap - Rice• IRRI, ideal conditions 3 crops of 7 t/ha: 21t/ha/yr• Philippines, irrigated: 2 crops of 4 t/ha: 8 t/ha/yr• Africa, upland rice: 1 crop of 2 t/ha 2 t/ha/yr
  18. 18. Water Productivity remains very low over most areasWP (estimated potential - typically 1-2 kg/m3)WP (estimated actual - typically 0.1-0.5 kg/m3) Yellow River Indus Ganges Mekong Nile Limpopo Volta Niger
  19. 19. What is the science potential ?• Life Science Revolution – molecular biology • Molecular markers for marker aided selection • Characterizing genetic diversity • Creating new gene pools• IT revolution – crop management, precision agriculture • Satellite information to predict crop growth • Cheap sensors from soil moisture to weather • Mobile phones for extension and market info• Holistic approach – ecological intensification • Landscape approach • Farming systems and livelihood strategies • Access to markets, value chains, nutrition, food safety
  20. 20. DNA Sequencing Costs Plummeting:Life sciences more dynamic than IT 10-5 human hair Nanopore Technology Will Lower Costs Even More
  21. 21. CGIAR Research Agenda
  22. 22. CGIAR Research Program on Rice• 120 million rice farmers feed 3.5 billion people• 1 billion people extremely poor and 650 million hungry depend on rice – more coming… ‘000 milled tonnes No slowdown in global rice consumption Rice fastest growing food commodity in SSA
  23. 23. => Increase rice production that is affordable to poorand profitable to farmers (and value chain)But… future: less and more expensive resources,more hostile environment (climate change) Global challenge and global threats  concerted global action  CRP Rice
  24. 24. Science partnerships Development partnershipsTheme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6 SRFGRiSP Increased Food Security nutritious rice production Products Products Nutrition and Genes, varieties, locally adopted by health management technologies, adapted and farmers, value information promoted by chain actors, Stable and gateway, models, public, NGO, policy makers, affordable Rural Poverty data, tools, and private other price of rice capacity, etc sector stakeholders Increased Sustainability resource use efficiency Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions Timeline
  25. 25. Product: Submergence-tolerant rice Swarna-Sub1 17 d submergence 11 million ha flood prone> 25 years of ‘discovery science’: gene, markers,…
  26. 26. Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected; FR13A Gene bank screened; FR13A identified Semi-dwarf & submergence tol. combined First high-yielding dwarf varieties1950 1978 1990 2000 2010 1995: Sub1 mapped to Chr. 9 Fine mapping & marker development initiated 2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1) 2006: Sub1-A gene conferring submergence tolerance 2006: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing 2008: Sub1-A mode of action: inhibit response to GA 2009: Swarna-Sub1 released in Indian, Indonesia, IR64- Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines 2010: Two Sub1 varieties released in Bangladesh
  27. 27. Swarna-Sub1 Timeline inin India and B’Desh + NFSM, State 100 public & >130 public & + Govs., Seed Co NARES NARES NGOs, FOs, S private private (P&Pv), NGOs,Partners (2) (8) eed Co (P) sector sectors IPs (54) (22) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Activities Release Dissemination, adoption, tacking Evaluation, De (June), Seed & impact assessment Multiplication Evaluation monstration Mult. (BS +TL), Demonstr.Seed Breeding status Africa 2011: sub1 works in Seed Mult (boro)amount elite African rice germplasmBS: 170 t BS/FS/CS/ BS/FS/ 2 kg 100 kg 3,000 kg 15 tons TL: 450 t TL,10,000 t CS/TL,  WITA 4 x Swarna sub1 FS : > 500 BC2F1 (+FS) 40000 t (+FS)No. of  NERICA L-19 x IR64 sub1 F1Farmers ~ 700 ~5,000 >100,000 1.3 mil 4.0 mil  FARO 57 x Swarna sub1 BC1F1 October 2012: urgent request from Nigerian Swarna-Sub1 reached about 3 million farmers Minister of Agriculture for submergence in India and tolerant rice 0.5 million in Bangladesh by 2012
  28. 28. New Products: “2 in 1” Submergence + salinity tolerance 12 million ha salt affected10 days submerged Sub1 only SalTol+ Sub1in saline water
  29. 29. A4NHHow Can Agriculture Improve Nutrition & Health? • Improve nutrition quality and food safety in value chains for nutrient-rich foods • Via biofortified staple crops—5 biofortified crops have been released since 2007; approx. 4 million households will be growing those crops by end of 2015 • Recent releases: – Vitamin A cassava released in December 2011 – Vitamin A maize released in 2012 in Nigeria and Zambia – Iron beans released in Rwanda in 2012 – Iron pearl millet commercialized in India in 2012 by private company • Via diet diversity • Through linking agriculture with nutrition and health programs, policies, and investments
  30. 30. A4NH Micronutrient Crops Cassava Pearl Millet Provitamin A Iron (Zinc) DR Congo, Nigeria India 2011 2012 Beans Rice Iron (Zinc) Zinc DR Congo, Rwanda Bangladesh, India 2012 2013 Maize Wheat Provitamin A Zinc Zambia India, Pakistan 2012 20132014-2018 Delivery-at-scale: 40 million people from 8 target countries
  31. 31. CGIAR Research Program Climate ChangeTechnologies, practices, partnerships, and policies for: Integration for Decision Making Adaptation Adaptation Pro-poor Linking Knowledge to through Climate with Action Progressive Managing Change Assembling Data and Climate Climate Mitigation Tools for Analysis and Change Risk Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Global engagement and synthesis
  32. 32. Farms of the Future With World Climate Research Programhttp://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/
  33. 33. Farms of the Future Journey to Beora’s Plausible FuturesBlog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/
  34. 34. Congo Basin: Africa’s last rainforests Success Story: Capacity building Increased focus among partners on raising capacity in forestry sector Highlight: Survey in 2005 found less than 10 active researchers in DRC – a country that represent 60% of the Congo Basin’s forests. Project at the University of Kisangani: 53 MSc students trained (22 about to start); 6 PhDs completed & 13 PhDs ongoing. Separate project in Congo Basin on climate change adaptation trained 40 MSc students
  35. 35. CGIAR Genebanks Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationThe genetic diversity treasure chest
  36. 36. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation International collections
  37. 37. Genebank Samples Distributed per Year Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationSource: Collections online databases, publications, and personal communications between Trust and Genebank Managers, 2008,-2010
  38. 38. ACIAR Impact Assessment of CGIAR • Australian ACIAR 2011 impact assessment of IRRI’s rice breeding in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines • Benefits: $1.46 billion per year from 1985 - 2009
  39. 39. Upswing in CGIAR Investment 1,100 CGIAR Total Funding Trends Nominal and in 1972 dollars 1,000 1,000 900 855 800 766 700 725 600US$ million 500 400 300 200 1972 dollars, 121 100 20 0 Actual, Nominal 1972 dollars Target _____ projected, nominal
  40. 40. Conclusions• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades• Revitalizing agriculture after decades of neglect• Focus: hunger, poverty, malnutrition, environment• Science and technology driven innovation is key• Investment in research through CGIAR and partners is critical – investors doubling $$ in 5 years to $1Bn
  41. 41. THANK YOU

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