Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D,, CEO
    Foresight Science & Technology
          www.foresightst.com
         401,273.4844, ext....
Competitive Advantage

    Finding the Customer              Market Orientation
    Determining the 4P’s                  ...
Competitive Openings and Competitive Advantage




                            Foresight Science & Technology
3
          ...
Revenues
                                                      from Sales
      $
                Saving
                f...
Developer                     Seek                  Producers/Distributors
                                  technology


...
Technology is a Tool for Doing Something

             5 W’s

             Who is doing it?
             What is being don...
Searching the Web                        Star Trek Gap Analysis
      Focus on Performance
      or Functionality
      Ad...
Foresight Science & Technology
8
        www.ForesightST.com
Product Innovation
    Stage
       Bundle of Features
       Standard User
       Interface
    Process Innovation
    St...
Bohn Knowledge Level                             Utility ≈ Value
     Skills/Know-how                                  UMP...
Ease‐of‐Use




     Foresight Science & Technology
11
         www.ForesightST.com
Button                  C lothing
     Manufacturer            Manufacturer




       Button                  C lothing
 ...
HEV                         Batteries




           Foresight Science & Technology
13
               www.ForesightST.com
Li-ion Battery Functional Decomposition
  (B) Product Risks
       B-1.0 Lithium Ion Battery
             B-001 Available ...
Foresight Advanced Energy
Storage Portal

http://batteries.foresightst.com




                                   Foresigh...
Ease of Use




     Foresight Science & Technology
16
         www.ForesightST.com
Trajectory
                                         Technology 2
                                                         ...
Market Entry Risk
      from Bacon & Bulter, Planned Innovation




                                                      ...
VarietyRate of          Slow or “One             Rapid or “Faster-
          Change         Time”                    Paced...
Distribution without Market Force
                                                      or Barrier




                   ...
Foresight Science & Technology
21
         www.ForesightST.com
Trade-offs
                         and
                     Concerns
                      affecting
                    ...
Patents
                                   and                                      Company
           Referred Literature...
COMPARING YOUR TECHNOLOGY WITH OTHERS
                                                                                    ...
Is it in a Golden Triangle of Competitive Advantage Sustainability?
                    If so file a Provisional and test ...
Is There a
                                      Competitive
                                        Opening?




     For...
Foresight Science & Technology
27
         www.ForesightST.com
Six Degrees of Separation
        Start with People Likely to
        Know or Know Someone to
        Talk With
          ...
STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
     Level of Commitment                           People or Group
                                  ...
Get 7 to 15 potential customers
                          Sit them in a room with a recording
                          de...
Ask Experts who are the Experts
     Five to Seven Experts
     Same Questions
     Cycle Answers to Gain Consensus
31    ...
Email everyone, ask the questions and offer to chat,
     but do not rely solely on email
     Call early and then around ...
Target                    Target
            Advice                    Testing

Idea – Design – Proof – Brass – Prototype ...
Foresight Science & Technology
34
         www.ForesightST.com
Offensive
       Emerging                                       Lead all Competitors


       Pacing                Impact...
Foresight Science & Technology
36
         www.ForesightST.com
Foresight Science & Technology
37
         www.ForesightST.com
Foresight Science & Technology
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         www.ForesightST.com
Foresight Science & Technology
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         www.ForesightST.com
Foresight Science & Technology
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         www.ForesightST.com
High      Past            Present                 Future
                                                                 ...
CUMULATIVE REVENUES




                           0$




                                Idea   Basic      Applied    Pro...
34%             34%




                                                                      16%
                       1...
Barriers to
                          Entry



      Stability
         Of                                        Rate of
...
1) Product
                                      2) Price
                                      3) Promote
               ...
Market
                                               Force




                                                      Pric...
Market Familiarity
                                                                                                  STRAT...
Foresight Science & Technology
48
         www.ForesightST.com
Most
                                        Feasible
                                    Customer/Target
     Market     ...
You      You Do Deal You Walk Away
     
Them 
They Do Deal $10m, $0.5m -$0.05m,
                         -$0.01m

They Wa...
Google, Bing, etc.
     On-Line Papers and Magazines
       Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc.
       Business Week...
Frost and Sullivan
     Freedonia
     Gartner
     Foresight T2+2™
     Entrepreneur




                                ...
Let’s try an expert, shall we?



                                                53
               Foresight Science & Te...
Hoovers
     Foresight T2+2™ Entrepreneur
                       Foresight Science & Technology
                          ...
Mailers                                      Demonstrations
       Non-Proprietary                                  Workin...
Process Contribution to Total Project Cost
                                      (excl. Investments)


                   ...
Cost vs. Delays for all Risks along Value Chain



Technical and firm specific risk
                                      ...
Risk Level Approximate DR(%)                           Description
     Risk Free                   10-18                 ...
Focus on the Significant Risks


                                         59
        Foresight Science & Technology
59
   ...
Targets and Means Matrix


              Objective 1 (Reduce/Increase)
                                              Objec...
Any numbers in green found in the following fields can
     be changed and will be reflected in the tables below

     Fac...
There is always a reason
                              for NO
                                      Understand it
        ...
Make a list
        Must Haves
        No Ways
        Nice to Have
     Be Fair and Reasonable
     Use Your Nice to Have...
Start at the Top and
                           Work Down
                                 “Profit & Loss”
               ...
65        Foresight Science & Technology
     65
              www.ForesightST.com
There is a Market
       They Sell (or Want to Sell) to this Customer Segment
       Addressable Market Size
       Pull-T...
Foresight Science & Technology
67
         www.ForesightST.com
Poor Richard: “Pride is                 Everyone always Three
                                             Options:
     a...
Do you correctly understand why the
                                                         technology is attractive?
   ...
Poor Richard: “The                       The deal has to made
     second vice is lying, the                sound business...
Poor Richard: “Always                 Cash Flow is the Lifeblood
                                           of Business
  ...
Poor Richard: “Those                   Legal clauses must be taken
                                            seriously
 ...
Poor Richard: “Fair                     Value is defined by the
                                             product of:
 ...
Poor Richard: “We can                 The decision is
     give advice, but we                   management’s
     cannot ...
Foresight Science & Technology
75
         www.ForesightST.com
Allocate tasking to the most
     competent and cost-
     efficient party
     Allocate liability to the party
     best ...
Foresight Science & Technology
77
         www.ForesightST.com
Develop a straw man
     Float it then try it
     Adapt it to reflect
     comments and
     reactions
     Continue to n...
Clarify Exit Strategy
     Set Goals and Make and Evaluate Plans
     Build Brand Name Loyalty and Goodwill
        Listen...
Revisit Exit Strategy
     Hit Take-Off in Entry Niche then Expand Niches
     Go Where:
     Clear Expressions of Need
  ...
Foresight Science & Technology
81
         www.ForesightST.com
Product Advantage




     Market Orientation                       Launch Tactics             New Product Performance   O...
PRODUCT           Fundamental/         Applied                  Concurrent                Manufacturing
                  ...
Foresight Science & Technology
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         www.ForesightST.com
85
                                 Co
                                    m           Pr o
                              ...
Ease‐of‐Use




     Foresight Science & Technology
86
         www.ForesightST.com
• Nothing happens without a sale.
       David Speser



     • If opportunity doesn’t knock,
       build a door.
       ...
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Getting to Revenue

  1. 1. Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D,, CEO Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com 401,273.4844, ext. 35, Phyl.Speser@ForesightST.com Foresight Science & Technology 1 www.ForesightST.com
  2. 2. Competitive Advantage Finding the Customer Market Orientation Determining the 4P’s Substitutes (Product, Price, End-User Needs Promote, Place) Selling First Sales Technology Buyers Long Term Sales Launch Tactics (4Ps) Foresight Science & Technology 2 www.ForesightST.com
  3. 3. Competitive Openings and Competitive Advantage Foresight Science & Technology 3 www.ForesightST.com
  4. 4. Revenues from Sales $ Saving from Operations Time (Life or death needs such as health, environment, or military requirements and aesthetics/taste for consumer items are the exception. ) Foresight Science & Technology 4 www.ForesightST.com
  5. 5. Developer Seek Producers/Distributors technology create awareness and legitimize and stimulate demand enhance desirability create awareness seek product and/or service and support Opinion legitimize End-Users and stimulate Leaders demand Foresight Science & Technology 5 www.ForesightST.com
  6. 6. Technology is a Tool for Doing Something 5 W’s Who is doing it? What is being done? Where are they doing it Why is it being done? When are they doing it? Foresight Science & Technology 6 www.ForesightST.com
  7. 7. Searching the Web Star Trek Gap Analysis Focus on Performance or Functionality Add Term Think Where it Gets Used Problem Need Requirement Check for Fit with Look for Contemporary Other Requirements Analogue Confirm by Calling Confirm by Calling Experts Experts and End-Users and End-Users Foresight Science & Technology 7 www.ForesightST.com
  8. 8. Foresight Science & Technology 8 www.ForesightST.com
  9. 9. Product Innovation Stage Bundle of Features Standard User Interface Process Innovation Stage Eliminate Steps Improve Reliability Improve Efficiency of Resource Use Foresight Science & Technology 9 www.ForesightST.com
  10. 10. Bohn Knowledge Level Utility ≈ Value Skills/Know-how UMPF Extension Extension Enabling Core Strategic Extension Competing Enabling Time Foresight Science & Technology 10 10 www.ForesightST.com
  11. 11. Ease‐of‐Use Foresight Science & Technology 11 www.ForesightST.com
  12. 12. Button C lothing Manufacturer Manufacturer Button C lothing Manufacturer Manufacturer Market Force Foresight Science & Technology 12 www.ForesightST.com
  13. 13. HEV Batteries Foresight Science & Technology 13 www.ForesightST.com
  14. 14. Li-ion Battery Functional Decomposition (B) Product Risks B-1.0 Lithium Ion Battery B-001 Available Energy B-002 Calendar Life B-003 Cold Cranking Power B-004 Cost B-005 Cycle Life B-006 Efficiency B-007 Equivalent Electric Range B-008 Max. System Weight B-009 Operating Temperature Range B-010 Peak Pulse Discharge Power B-011 Production Price B-012 Regenerative Pulse Power Green indicates a goal with B-013 Self Discharge specific numerical values B-175 Safety B-014 System Recharge Rate Red indicates a risk or B-015 System Volume B-016 Thermal Runaway common design hurdle B-1.1 Cathode B-017 Cost Yellow indicates a goal or a B-018 Electrochemical Capacity characteristic without a B-019 Ionic Conductivity specific value Foresight Science & Technology 14 www.ForesightST.com
  15. 15. Foresight Advanced Energy Storage Portal http://batteries.foresightst.com Foresight Science & Technology 15 www.ForesightST.com
  16. 16. Ease of Use Foresight Science & Technology 16 www.ForesightST.com
  17. 17. Trajectory Technology 2 Lithium Ion Battery Requirement S 2c Yield Trajectory S Requirement S 1c Technology 1 S 2b 1b Lead Acid Battery S 1a S 2a Time Foresight Science & Technology 17 www.ForesightST.com
  18. 18. Market Entry Risk from Bacon & Bulter, Planned Innovation new new Product modified modified Market existing existing Foresight Science & Technology 18 www.ForesightST.com
  19. 19. VarietyRate of Slow or “One Rapid or “Faster- Change Time” Paced “ Many Segment-Driven Dynamic or Needs Changing Needs (Screwdrivers) (Financial Renewable Clean Instruments) Energy Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Few Infrastructure- Network-Driven Driven Needs Needs (Hoes) (Cell Phones) Smart Grid Electronic Health Records Based on Sanderson and Uzumeri, Managing Product Families, (Iwin, 1997) Foresight Science & Technology 19 www.ForesightST.com
  20. 20. Distribution without Market Force or Barrier Distribution with Market Force Market Force and Barrier Foresight Science & Technology 20 www.ForesightST.com
  21. 21. Foresight Science & Technology 21 www.ForesightST.com
  22. 22. Trade-offs and Concerns affecting Metrics Matrix Technology’s Yields on Metrics Relationship Needs Importance Matrix of Needs Foresight Science & Technology 22 www.ForesightST.com
  23. 23. Patents and  Company Referred Literature Applications Trade Press Websites T‐n T0 time Patents Company Trade Press and  Websites Applications Referred Literature To T+1 T+5 time Foresight Science & Technology 23 www.ForesightST.com
  24. 24. COMPARING YOUR TECHNOLOGY WITH OTHERS YOURS Functionality of Tchnology Features and Relat ive Weig h t in g 3 Strong 2 Medium 1 Weak Customer Requirements Performance Ease-of-Use Price Other Total Weight 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Foresight Science & Technology 24 www.ForesightST.com
  25. 25. Is it in a Golden Triangle of Competitive Advantage Sustainability? If so file a Provisional and test market. Foresight Science & Technology 25 www.ForesightST.com
  26. 26. Is There a Competitive Opening? Foresight Science & Technology 26 www.ForesightST.com
  27. 27. Foresight Science & Technology 27 www.ForesightST.com
  28. 28. Six Degrees of Separation Start with People Likely to Know or Know Someone to Talk With Federal, State, and Local Program Managers Chairs and Members of Trade Association and Professional Society Committees Editors and Authors Center Directors and Professors who Consult Network Through to the Right People Make it Clear Up Front You are NOT SELLING Always Ask if You can Use their Name Foresight Science & Technology 28 www.ForesightST.com
  29. 29. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS Level of Commitment People or Group Supply Chain, Opinion Industry Regulators Customers Funders NGOs incl. Targets Leaders Assoc. Enthusiastic Helpful Compliant Hesitant Indifferent Uncooperative Opposed Hostile Key: O - Level Necessary for Success X - Current Level Foresight Science & Technology 29 www.ForesightST.com
  30. 30. Get 7 to 15 potential customers Sit them in a room with a recording device Ask questions and encourage them to “freewheel” about their needs Focus and facilitate the discussion by asking about needs you have identified in literature reviews or earlier discussions Confirm the Substitutes and their Prices Confirm who your Competitors are Do Gap Analysis Identify the Value Network 30 Foresight Science & Technology www.ForesightST.com
  31. 31. Ask Experts who are the Experts Five to Seven Experts Same Questions Cycle Answers to Gain Consensus 31 Foresight Science & Technology www.ForesightST.com
  32. 32. Email everyone, ask the questions and offer to chat, but do not rely solely on email Call early and then around the end of the day Look for common ground and leverage points Be a poor working stiff Ask who else to call when you reach someone Foresight Science & Technology 32 www.ForesightST.com
  33. 33. Target Target Advice Testing Idea – Design – Proof – Brass – Prototype – Product – Production – Sales – Distribution – Customer of of Board Engineering Marketing Support Concept Feasibility End User Testing End User Advice Foresight Science & Technology 33 www.ForesightST.com
  34. 34. Foresight Science & Technology 34 www.ForesightST.com
  35. 35. Offensive Emerging Lead all Competitors Pacing Impact Be in Top 5% of all Competitors Spare Lead all Direct Competitors from Use of Product, Be in Top Half of all Competitors Defensive Service, or Technology Crucial for Future Growth Hedging Crucial for Take-off Imitative Offensive Defensive Spare Function 35 Foresight Science & Technology www.ForesightST.com
  36. 36. Foresight Science & Technology 36 www.ForesightST.com
  37. 37. Foresight Science & Technology 37 www.ForesightST.com
  38. 38. Foresight Science & Technology 38 www.ForesightST.com
  39. 39. Foresight Science & Technology 39 www.ForesightST.com
  40. 40. Foresight Science & Technology 40 www.ForesightST.com
  41. 41. High Past Present Future Long-Term Sustainable Competitive Advantage Staff Capacities of to Realize Plan Strength of Short and Mid-Term Intellectual Asset Competitive Advantage Portfolio Revenue From Entry Market Application Low © Foresight Science and Technology Foresight Science & Technology 41 www.ForesightST.com
  42. 42. CUMULATIVE REVENUES 0$ Idea Basic Applied Product Process Market Research Research Development Engineering Introduction TIME Foresight Science & Technology 42 www.ForesightST.com
  43. 43. 34% 34% 16% 14% 3% Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Foresight Science & Technology 43 www.ForesightST.com
  44. 44. Barriers to Entry Stability Of Rate of Rivalry Dominant Change Design Concentra- tion Foresight Science & Technology 44 www.ForesightST.com
  45. 45. 1) Product 2) Price 3) Promote 4) Place Foresight Science & Technology 45 www.ForesightST.com
  46. 46. Market Force Price Goals Time 2 Ea se -o f- Us e Skills gy ss e no en ch tiv Time 1 lo c of tra Capacities t A Te Market Force ce an rm rfo Pe Inputs - Outputs Market Force Foresight Science & Technology 46 www.ForesightST.com
  47. 47. Market Familiarity STRATEGY Control: Internal Development Divest or Acquisitions Monitor In-License Partner: Market Joint Ventures Development Alliances Internal Ventures Out-License Partner Divest: Assignments Sales Control Monitor: Technology Venture Capital Maximize Development Educational Acquisitions CORE Adapted from Roberts and Berry, SMR 1988. Technology Familiarity 47 Minimize Foresight Science & Technology www.ForesightST.com
  48. 48. Foresight Science & Technology 48 www.ForesightST.com
  49. 49. Most Feasible Customer/Target Market  Capability Fit Fit Product/Maturity Fit Foresight Science & Technology 49 49 www.ForesightST.com
  50. 50. You You Do Deal You Walk Away Them They Do Deal $10m, $0.5m -$0.05m, -$0.01m They Walk $0.1m, -$0.01m, Away -$0.05m -$0.01m Foresight Science & Technology 50 50 www.ForesightST.com
  51. 51. Google, Bing, etc. On-Line Papers and Magazines Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc. Business Week, Fortune, etc. Thomasnet, Globalspec, etc. Sector or Technology Specific Websites Cooperate Information Yahoo Finance Hoovers Company Sites SEC Edgar 51 Foresight Science & Technology 51 www.ForesightST.com
  52. 52. Frost and Sullivan Freedonia Gartner Foresight T2+2™ Entrepreneur 52 Foresight Science & Technology 52 www.ForesightST.com
  53. 53. Let’s try an expert, shall we? 53 Foresight Science & Technology 53 www.ForesightST.com
  54. 54. Hoovers Foresight T2+2™ Entrepreneur Foresight Science & Technology 54 54 www.ForesightST.com
  55. 55. Mailers Demonstrations Non-Proprietary Working, Tested Prototype Fact Sheet, Quad Chart, Presentation Slides Specifications Sheet, Brochure Follow-Along Manual and/or Check List White Paper Patents/ Published Patent Legal Documents Applications Standard Contract or License Proprietary One-Way and/or Two- Test Protocols and Way Non-Disclosure Results Agreements Unpublished Patent Materials Transfer Applications Agreement where Relevant Foresight Science & Technology 55 www.ForesightST.com
  56. 56. Process Contribution to Total Project Cost (excl. Investments) 0.4 0.35 0.3 The substantive process drives the cost Cost in % of Total 0.25 0.2 0.15 calculation 0.1 0.05 0 Log & Disp Financing Design Impl & Eng Test Mgt Prc & Equip Dist & Srvc Mfg Pl & Ctrl Research Management The cost calculation, Net Operating Income/Loss and Cummulated Cashflows with Breakeven Net Operating Income/(Losses) together with the revenue projections, Net Difference of Cummulated Cashflows 400000000 350000000 300000000 250000000 200000000 150000000 drives the net value 100000000 50000000 0 36525 37256 37986 38717 39447 40178 40908 41639 42369 43100 43830 44561 -50000000 Foresight Science & Technology 56 56 www.ForesightST.com
  57. 57. Cost vs. Delays for all Risks along Value Chain Technical and firm specific risk 30% are the basis for the discount 25% Resulting Cost Increases rate. 20% 15% Market risk is a probability 10% distribution for outcomes. 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Resulting Delays Foresight Science & Technology 57 57 www.ForesightST.com
  58. 58. Risk Level Approximate DR(%) Description Risk Free 10-18 Existing product, high demand, building more of the same Very Low Risk 15-20 New well understood technology for an existing product Low Risk 20-30 New features, well understood technology into an existing market Moderate Risk 25-35 New product, well understood technology into market with competition High Risk 30-40 New product, not well understood technology into an existing market. Very High Risk 35-45 New product, new technology, new market Extremely High Risk 50-70 New company, unproven technology, new market Source: Richard Razgaitis, Early Stage Technology Foresight Science & Technology 58 58 www.ForesightST.com
  59. 59. Focus on the Significant Risks 59 Foresight Science & Technology 59 www.ForesightST.com
  60. 60. Targets and Means Matrix Objective 1 (Reduce/Increase) Objectives Action Plan Objective 5 Objective 3 Objective 4 Objective 2 Measure Time Line Resources Required Who? JFMAMJJASOND Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Progress 60 Foresight Science & Technology 60 www.ForesightST.com
  61. 61. Any numbers in green found in the following fields can be changed and will be reflected in the tables below Factor Rate Weight Impact Industry Norm 0.0% 0.0 0% Significance (Breakthrough add 5-10%, Major add 0-5%%, Minor subtract 0-3% 0.0% 3.0 0% Refinement/Maturity of Technology (High add, Low subtract) 0.0% 2.0 0% Breadth and Strength of IP Protection (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 2.0 0% Portfolio, Not Single Patent Being Licensed (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 2.0 0% Exclusive Market Position in Field of Use Gained (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 3.0 0% Immediate Utility in Market (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 2.0 0% Commercially Successful (Already Successful in Market add, Not Yet Proven in Market subtract) 0.0% 3.0 0% Competition Exists which Will Inhibit Ability to Exploit (Yes subtract, No add) 0.0% 1.0 0% Foreign Rights (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 3.0 0% Sales Conveyed or Highly Likely (Yes add, No subtract) 0.0% 2.0 0% Duration (Over Ten Years add, Under Three Years subtract) 0.0% 1.0 0% Upfront Payment Required (Yes subtract, No or Conditional add, Standard neutral) 0.0% 2.0 0% Minimum Royalties (Yes subtract, no add, Standard neutral) 0.0% 2.0 0% Know-How Included in Deal (Yes add, No subtract, Standard neutral) 0.0% 3.0 0% Support/Training Provided After Initial Transfer (Yes add, No subtract, Standard neutral) 0.0% 2.0 0% Maintenance and Enforcement Burden (Licensee subtract, Licensor add, Standard neutral) 0.0% 2.0 0% Exposure to Liability (Yes subtract, No add, Standard neutral) 0.0% 2.0 0% Total 0% Add to Industry Norm 0.00% RATE 0.000% Foresight Science & Technology 61 www.ForesightST.com
  62. 62. There is always a reason for NO Understand it Respond to it Follow-up, Follow-up, Follow-up Foresight Science & Technology 62 www.ForesightST.com
  63. 63. Make a list Must Haves No Ways Nice to Have Be Fair and Reasonable Use Your Nice to Haves to Negotiate for the Others When you have: Your Must Haves None of Your No Ways Sign Foresight Science & Technology 63 www.ForesightST.com
  64. 64. Start at the Top and Work Down “Profit & Loss” Responsibility Gatekeepers Always have a Name Ask for the Secretary/Assistant Practice Your Elevator Speech Why Calling Them Value Proposition Foresight Science & Technology 64 www.ForesightST.com
  65. 65. 65 Foresight Science & Technology 65 www.ForesightST.com
  66. 66. There is a Market They Sell (or Want to Sell) to this Customer Segment Addressable Market Size Pull-Through Likely with Customer Segment Voice of Customer Heard Stakeholder Support Your Good(s) can Capture a Hefty Market Share A “PEPPY” Value Proposition: Performance, Ease-of- Use, Price, (PEP) and UMPF Concurrent Engineering Underway Lead Customers Participating Designed for Price Flexibility Foresight Science & Technology 66 www.ForesightST.com
  67. 67. Foresight Science & Technology 67 www.ForesightST.com
  68. 68. Poor Richard: “Pride is Everyone always Three Options: as loud a beggar as need Buy and a good deal more Wait/Stall saucy” Walk Away Ask for the Deal IF THEY DO NOT BUY … ASK WHY! Do not be a “true believer” Do not assume they are stupid Understand their needs, requirements, and constraints Foresight Science & Technology 68 www.ForesightST.com
  69. 69. Do you correctly understand why the technology is attractive? What is the decision process and who else is involved in what roles or Sponsor functions? How long does the decision process take? Technical What criteria will be important and Gatekeeper Project Leader Expert why? What information will they want? What kind of deals have they signed Champion End User in the past and what do they prefer? Who is (are) the decision maker(s)? Is there other insights they want to pass along to make the process smoother and quicker Foresight Science & Technology 69 www.ForesightST.com
  70. 70. Poor Richard: “The The deal has to made second vice is lying, the sound business sense or first is running in debt. it is a nightmare to …It is hard for an enforce empty bag to stand upright” Good Deals are: Win/Win: Net Positive Cash Flow for All Parties Fair: Allocation of Cash Flow Proportional to Value Contributed Self-Enforcing Foresight Science & Technology 70 www.ForesightST.com
  71. 71. Poor Richard: “Always Cash Flow is the Lifeblood of Business taking out of the pot The more risk a party bears, and never putting in the more upside cash flow potential it deserves one soon comes to the Cash today is worth less than bottom” cash tomorrow The likelihood of cash tomorrow decreases as total risk increases Allocate risk to the party able to control it or bear it. Use side payment(s) to make the deal “fair.” Foresight Science & Technology 71 www.ForesightST.com
  72. 72. Poor Richard: “Those Legal clauses must be taken seriously who will not be If you have not been there counselled cannot be before, work with someone helped” who has Not getting your cash Getting the wrong amount Getting Sued Get Financial folks to confirm the cash flow after taxes & interest Get a lawyer to confirm exposure to liability and difficulty of enforcing Foresight Science & Technology 72 www.ForesightST.com
  73. 73. Poor Richard: “Fair Value is defined by the product of: commerce is where (1) The contribution to the equal values are utility for the end-user (a percent) exchanged for equal, The number of units sold the expense of The gross profit per unit transport included.” Adjusted by the other costs for the buyer when creating that utility Adjusted by the risk of realizing the value (discounting) Foresight Science & Technology 73 www.ForesightST.com
  74. 74. Poor Richard: “We can The decision is give advice, but we management’s cannot give conduct” Decide on sound business reasons (personalities change as people change) Don’t get greedy Go back to your three columns: Must Have and No Way Cross off items on Must Have and No Way If no No Ways and all Must Haves, sign Foresight Science & Technology 74 www.ForesightST.com
  75. 75. Foresight Science & Technology 75 www.ForesightST.com
  76. 76. Allocate tasking to the most competent and cost- efficient party Allocate liability to the party best able to mitigate it Structure hand-offs for success Clear Deliverables Milestones Progress Payments Penalties Use transfer payments to make fair Foresight Science & Technology 76 www.ForesightST.com
  77. 77. Foresight Science & Technology 77 www.ForesightST.com
  78. 78. Develop a straw man Float it then try it Adapt it to reflect comments and reactions Continue to no adaptation is needed Foresight Science & Technology 78 www.ForesightST.com
  79. 79. Clarify Exit Strategy Set Goals and Make and Evaluate Plans Build Brand Name Loyalty and Goodwill Listen to Your Customers and Respond Obtain Advocates Among Stakeholders Always Set the Quality Bar Higher Run as Long as First Mover Advantage Lasts, then Consolidate Gains Sit on Standards Bodies Get on Industry Panels with Customers Increase Intellectual Assets Drive Absolute Cost Advantages Economies Control Over Inputs Create Barriers to Entry Foresight Science & Technology 79 www.ForesightST.com
  80. 80. Revisit Exit Strategy Hit Take-Off in Entry Niche then Expand Niches Go Where: Clear Expressions of Need Opinion Leaders Cross Over Communication Channels Already Carrying Your Messages Leverage Scalability and Producability Foresight Science & Technology 80 www.ForesightST.com
  81. 81. Foresight Science & Technology 81 www.ForesightST.com
  82. 82. Product Advantage Market Orientation Launch Tactics New Product Performance Organizational Performance Foresight Science & Technology 82 www.ForesightST.com
  83. 83. PRODUCT Fundamental/ Applied Concurrent Manufacturing - Post- LIFE CYCLE Exploratory Research and Engineering Sales, Introduction Research Development Supports Improvement SBIR Pre-Phase I Phase I Phase II Phase III (and Phase III (and PHASE new Pre- new Phase I) Phase I) Develop a distinct Establish Embody the Get the product or Create long-term Expected new technology technology’s technology in process quickly value by Results connected to a practicability, production accepted in the expanding market need market potential, engineered market applications of the and plans for products and/or technology development processes Technical proof of Patent if relevant Beta test with key Hit take-off (5% - Obtain substantial Demonstrable the ideas, patent, or not done; ready customers, unveil 20% penetration) financial returns Steps and/ or develop vision for plans for com - commercial and establish the Benefits the technology mercialization; version of the infrastructure for prototype, test technology, supporting a with key targets animal trials product family Research partners, Technical experts, End-users, lead Targets, end- Company Relevant technical experts potential investors customers, sup - users, customers, management, Stakeholders in the field and other funding pliers of platform opinion leaders, others in value sources, targets, or complementary others in value network, end users, opinion technologies and network customers, leaders in key products, targets, opinion leaders, entry niches opinion leaders R&D partners Expanding upon V. Jolly, Commercializing New Technologies, Harvard Business School Press, 1997 Foresight Science & Technology 83 www.ForesightST.com
  84. 84. Foresight Science & Technology 84 www.ForesightST.com
  85. 85. 85 Co m Pr o po Lan peti dsc tive ap Val sition e ue No De n-Pro E scr Ph mail ipt p. ion one & Cu Semi sto - Fee d www.ForesightST.com Ma mize ter d Giv back e Foresight Science & Technology ial Ask Info a s s fo nd rM ore
  86. 86. Ease‐of‐Use Foresight Science & Technology 86 www.ForesightST.com
  87. 87. • Nothing happens without a sale. David Speser • If opportunity doesn’t knock, build a door. Milton Berle • A well-defined imagination is the source of great deeds. Chinese Fortune Cookie Foresight Science & Technology 87 www.ForesightST.com

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