Determine scenario drivers - Foresight Cards Workshop

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Use the Foresight Cards to determine key trends and scenario drivers.

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Determine scenario drivers - Foresight Cards Workshop

  1. 1. - Determine trends and scenario drivers - Foresight Cards Order the pack of cards or download more free workshops using the Foresight Cards on: www.foresightcards.com
  2. 2. Foresight cards Trendwatching?Future of “our values”5 minute discussion with your group- How does this theme develop itself into the future?
  3. 3. Foresight cards Trendwatching?Future of “our values”5 minute discussion with your projectgroup- How does this theme develop itself into the future?Future of “our values”In your discussion about the future…- Which elements are important, when you are talking with eachother about the future?Again, 5 minute discussion
  4. 4. Foresight cards Talking about the future Oil spillFuture events…- Perspective of Time- Perspective of Relevance- Perspective of Reliability of information- Perspective of Uncertainty Predetermined <-> Controversy- Perspective of Change Trend / Gradual- / Abrupt discontinuity Increased usaged of digital devices 
  5. 5. Foresight cards Perspective of change
  6. 6. Foresight cards Perspective of changeTime, Relevance, Uncertainty,Reliability of information and CHANGE:
  7. 7. Foresight cards Our (STEEP) environment PEST, DESTEP, PESTLE, STEEPLE, LESTEP…Macro – contextual levelThe contextual level consists of ‘globalforces’, think about: economicaldevelopments, demographics, politics, technological developments and social developments.Foresight Cards – STEEP edition focusses onexternal forces that address the contextual level.Meso – transactional levelThe transactional level consists of ‘marketforces’, think about: suppliers, supply anddemand, distribution, competitors and strategicalliances.Micro – organizational levelThe organizational level involves forces thataddress the internal environment of the firm.Think about:vision, mission, strategy, resources, processes, products and services.
  8. 8. Foresight cards Foresight Cards
  9. 9. Foresight cards The Impact diagram
  10. 10. Foresight cards Determine trends & driversPurpose: Determine trends, innovation oppertunities and scenario drivers.Components: Post-its, impact diagram and the card ‘patterns of change’.Method• Create an impact diagram with sections: “Confirmation”, “Innovation” and “Scenarios” on a large brown paper.• Make teams of two or three people.• Shuffle the cards and divide them among the teams. You might like to make a pre-selection if you’re short on time.
  11. 11. Foresight cards Determine trends & driversPurpose: Determine trends, innovation oppertunities and scenario drivers.Components: Post-its, impact diagram and the card ‘patterns of change’.Method• Each team positions the cards given in the framework. During positioning they discuss with each other why the card is positioned there.• When placing a card, teams will add a post-it that addresses the pattern of change that applies to the card.• When all cards are positioned look (as a team) at possibilities to cluster some forces. You might like to add a large post-it which describes a more abstract force that represents different forces.• After you have optimized the forces in the impact diagram discuss what you’re becoming aware of, for e.g. ‘What are trends of the current market?’, ‘Which forces determine innovation opportunities?’ and ‘Which forces hold key-uncertainties that could create different future scenarios?’.• Want to make a final check? In the section “Confirmation” you will mostly find current trends, in the section “Innovation” you’ll find trends and gradual discontinuities, in the section “Scenarios” you’ll find discontinuities only.
  12. 12. Foresight cards Perspective of change “Reflection” - What did you/we learn?
  13. 13. Foresight cards Foresight Cards informationThis analysis tool helps to assess the external macro environment!The Foresight Cards contains 125 macro forces classified into the STEEP categories(social, technological, economical, environmental and political). Other known acronymsderived from STEEP are: PEST, PESTLE, STEP, STEPJE, STEEPLED, DESTEP and LEPEST. TheSTEEP acronym is well known and used all over the world as a basis for external analysis.For example the STEEP cards can be used by individuals and groups to have workshops to:• create awareness about past, current and future changes;• stress test a business model;• create a SWOT analysis;• energize;• tell a story;• discuss certain (strategic) topics;• think about systems and how external developments connect to each other;• determine key-uncertainties to create future scenarios (scenario planning);• etc. etc. etc.Check the www.foresightcards.com website for more information, to download otherworkshops and how to order the pack of cards.
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