Nsdcar 7-18-13

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  • I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
  • I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
  • I moved this to after predictions as I thought it fit best vs. after retrospectiveSo if we are in a new bubble…is it a good time to invest?
  • Starts peaked at almost 60k, now 10k (1/6)Sales peaked at almost 30k, now 6k (1/5)
  • Constraining Demand:Homeowners with equity not moving up, instead hunkering downNearly a quarter of all homeowners underwater, condemned to a prison of debt.Mortgage lending standards remain tight.
  • If we just listen to the fear in the headlines and bury our heads in the sand, we lose out on a good 2 to maybe 3 year runway.
  • Nsdcar 7-18-13

    1. 1. State of the California Housing Market Recovery or ….?
    2. 2. Discussion Points • National Economic Picture • California Market Update • Recovery, Yes, But…? • Expectations Next Six to Twelve Months
    3. 3. Mortgage Interest Rates
    4. 4. Mortgage Interest Rates 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 InterestRates 10-Year Treasury Note Yields and 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rate July 2007 through July 1, 2013 10-Year Treasury Yields 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, Wells Fargo Mortgage June 19, 2013 Bernanke comments cause mortgage interest rates to spike 53 basis points.
    5. 5. $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 FederalReserveBankAssets Federal Reserve, Total Assets (Millions of $) January 2003 through July 1, 2013 As a result of QEs, Federal Reserve Bank Assets have mushroomed from $800 billion to $3.5 trillion Mortgage Interest Rates
    6. 6. Federal Reserve Policy Bernanke Has Your Back… Q & A: Members of House Financial Services Committee, July 18, 2013
    7. 7. Where are we in this housing recovery cycle?
    8. 8. Where are we in this housing recovery cycle?
    9. 9. Where are we in this housing recovery cycle? 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000 8,000,000 8,500,000 9,000,000 UnitsSold Total New and Existing Home Sales - May 1999 through May 2013
    10. 10. Median Prices up sharply in 2012 and YTD 2013 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 CaliforniaMedianHomePrice($) California Median Prices - Single Family Home June 2001 through June 2013 Source: PropertyRadar.com
    11. 11. Inventory at or near record lows Source: California Association of Realtors – CAR.org 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 MonthsofUnsoldInventory California Unsold Inventory Index (Months of Available Inventory) January 1990 to May 2013
    12. 12. Source: ForeclosureRadar – www.foreclosureradar.com Foreclosure activity slowing… 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 ForeclosureNoticesorSales Foreclosure Activity May 2007 through May 2013 Notice of Default Notice of Trustee Sale Foreclosure Sales
    13. 13. Time to foreclose lengthening Average Time to Foreclose 300+ Days
    14. 14. Government intervention
    15. 15. California home building permits on the rise 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NumberofPermits California Total Single Family Home Construction Permits January through May, 2000 through 2013
    16. 16. Housing Market Recovery?
    17. 17. Housing Recovery Dependent on Jobs and Income Rising Employment Rising Incomes
    18. 18. California employment on the rise 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 NumberofEmployees Monthly California Employment Trends (thousands of employees) January 1990 to May 2013
    19. 19. San Diego employment rising at a faster clip 1,320,000 1,340,000 1,360,000 1,380,000 1,400,000 1,420,000 1,440,000 1,460,000 1,480,000 1,500,000 NumberofEmployees Employment Trends - San Diego - Carlsbad - San Marcos Metro Area 2003 to 2013 Source: BLS.gov
    20. 20. California personal income gaining ground $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,800,000 PersonalIncome(Millionsof$) California Total Personal Income (Mllions of $) Q1 1999 through Q1 2013
    21. 21. What should a housing recovery look like? Rising Prices Increase in Market Activity Increase in Building Activity
    22. 22. Market Activity Slows… 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 SalesVolume Monthly Trend of California Real Estate Sales Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Sales February 2006 to June 2013 Distressed Sales Non-Distressed Sales Source: PropertyRadar.com
    23. 23. Sales volume down 5.9% in June 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 SalesVolume California Total Single Family Home and Condominium Sales January to June Year-to-Date Sales Comparisons 2005 through 2013 Distressed Sales Non-Distressed Sales Year-to-Date Jan-June sales nearly down 5.9 percent Y-o-Y
    24. 24. What about San Diego County……? Source: PropertyRadar.com 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 SalesVolume Monthly Trend of San Diego Real Estate Sales Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Sales February 2006 to June 2013 Distressed Sales Non-Distressed Sales Source: PropertyRadar.com
    25. 25. What about San Diego County……? Source: PropertyRadar.com 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 SalesVolume San Diego County Total Single Family Home and Condominium Sales January to June Year-to-Date Sales Comparisons 2005 through 2013 Distressed Sales Non-Distressed Sales Year-to-Date Jan-June sales up in San Diego County
    26. 26. What a difference a year makes! Source: PropertyRadar.com Distressed Property Sales as a % of Total Sales County Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 San Diego 51.8% 47.2% 27.1% Contra Costa 60.9% 54.5% 29.8% Riverside 62.8% 55.7% 37.2% Sacramento 68.1% 61.7% 38.2% San Bernardino 68.7% 61.5% 42.1%
    27. 27. Negative Equity on the Decline Homeowner equity critical to housing recovery
    28. 28. Negative equity on the decline Source: CoreLogic – www.corelogic.com 24% 28% 32% 36% NegativeEquityShare(%) California Negative Equity (%) Q4 2009 to Q4 2012
    29. 29. Negative Equity - California
    30. 30. Negative Equity - California 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% NumberofCaliforniaHomeowners(inThousands) Increase In California Home Prices Number of California Homeowners that Exit Negative Equity Positions Approximately 500,000 California homeowners exit their negative equity positions if home prices go up 10% Approximately 900,000 California homeowners exit their negative equity positions if home prices go up 20% Source: PropertyRadar.com
    31. 31. Negative Equity – San Diego
    32. 32. The Answer to the California Housing Market Recovery Question? Yes, but…. Recovery?
    33. 33. Recovery? Yes, but…
    34. 34. Expectations Next 6 to 12 Months
    35. 35. Demand will remain strong • Despite jawboning by the Fed, QE 3 will likely continue at current levels well into 2014 • In many parts of CA rents higher than house payments • Many early foreclosure “victims” now qualify for a mortgage and are choosing to buy
    36. 36. Supply will remain tight • Government intervention will continue to slow foreclosures, ie. CA Homeowner’s Bill of Rights • Many homeowners with equity waiting for higher prices • Nearly 2 million underwater homeowners can’t buy or sell (except short) • New home supply lagging demand • Lack of REO inventory • Short sales CA hampered by legislative uncertainty
    37. 37. Home prices will rise • Lack of supply, and continued demand will put upward pressure on prices • But increases will be constrained: – Interest rate volatility – By credit terms – By appraisals – By affordability and ROI
    38. 38. PropertyRadar Making Data Work for You www.propertyradar.com
    39. 39. CREATE INVENTORY, GET LISTINGS, ATTRACT HOME BUYERS • PropertyRadar is a powerful new product that gives you the data, software, and analytics to be successful in today’s marketplace. • ForeclosureRadar changed the way professionals operate in the foreclosure marketplace. • PropertyRadar upgrades that service to ALL California properties to enable you to work faster & make more money. PROPERTYRADAR® Formerly known as FORECLOSURERADAR®
    40. 40. Lots of opportunities – Use PropertyRadar to Uncover Hidden Opportunities Expertise at your Fingertips!
    41. 41. Start with Explore Mode
    42. 42. Negative equity in Escondido, CA
    43. 43. …..compared to Carlsbad
    44. 44. View “Ownership” heat map, Escondido,CA
    45. 45. View “Turnover” heat map
    46. 46. View “Debt” heat map, Escondido, CA
    47. 47. Find properties in foreclosure with “Foreclosures” heat map, Escondido, CA
    48. 48. View a property with the click of a button
    49. 49. View transaction history using public record data
    50. 50. Move to Property Search Mode
    51. 51. Select search criteria
    52. 52. Choose search criteria
    53. 53. Refine search criteria
    54. 54. Further refine search criteria
    55. 55. View search results
    56. 56. Export search results
    57. 57. View Property Details $550,000
    58. 58. Find owner via linked in or…? $550,000
    59. 59. View transaction history $550,000
    60. 60. – Farm for short sale opportunities – Locate and mail to renters who may eventually become buyers – Locate and mail to landlords who might want to sell – Locate older homeowners who have owned homes for years, free and clear. – Locate small older homes on large lots Other opportunities to find inventory
    61. 61. …with PropertyRadar you have Access to over 100 Search Criteria!
    62. 62. What’s Available Now What’s Coming Soon Available Now Coming Soon
    63. 63. PropertyRadar FREE 3-Day Trial www.PropertyRadar.com Basic Subscription Price: $49.95/Mo. CAR Members receive a 10% Discount Month-to-Month Agreement Email: Support@PropertyRadar.com
    64. 64. California Property Report Sign Up for our free monthly Property Report http://www.propertyradar.com/reports and our free monthly On the Radar Report http://www.propertyradar.com/onther adar Get ahead of the competition!

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