Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.  Creating Value in your Company                 by...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Risk Management used to be a “Compliance”or “Loss M...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.PIGs became ubiquitous, despite intrinsicconceptual...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.To prove how misleading PIGs can be, look atsome hi...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization....and plot the PIG on top, discrepanciesbecome evi...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets guess, your car has abetter cockpit than this ...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.From the early 90s on clients startedasking for rea...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.From the end of the 90s we started using ORE v.1.0a...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets summarize PIGs characteristics and seehow the ...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Case Study 1We will use, for this first Case Study,...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Using common procedures andinstructions for the def...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.They defined 50 risks which split into:-0 Severe-14...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Riskope deployed ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates) asRis...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets build a Tolerability Curve: we display it here...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.   For each risk lets evaluate the intolerable   pa...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.    Top 20 Total Risks prioritization. However,    ...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.The best Risks prioritization is based on theintole...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Now it is possible to take rational decisions inall...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Case Study 2We will use, as a second case study, a ...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization....but realized that:PIGs are too limited to evalua...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.                                                The...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. But the most comprehensive is a ORE Cockpit.Acme I...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.       What Clients Say about Riskope.... I want to...
Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.ORE are the keyto your businessprosperity,survival ...
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Creating value with riskope ore 31 10_2012

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Creating Value, Measuring Risks, Strategic Integration of Risks can all be achieved thanks to ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates) and the (Corporate) Cockpits. ORE Cockpits offer managers a dynamic and complete view on the "risk landscape" surrounding your company, whether you work locally or you are a large international company like our Fortune 500 clients, or the governments who trust Riskope's unique and innovative methodologies.

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Creating value with riskope ore 31 10_2012

  1. 1. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. Creating Value in your Company by Strategic Integration of Knowledge and Risk Landscape Using Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® (ORE)® Franco Oboni & Cesar Oboni Oboni Riskope Associates Inc., Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 1 of 24 12/10/2012
  2. 2. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Risk Management used to be a “Compliance”or “Loss Minimization” afterthought, not aValue Creation tool.Companies interpreted theresults of Risk Assessmentswith fuzzy Probabilities-Impact (Losses) Graphs(PIGs) which often weremisleading and did notreally promote or increasean holistic understanding ofthe business environment. (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 2 of 24 12/10/2012
  3. 3. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.PIGs became ubiquitous, despite intrinsicconceptual errors, with potential dramaticnegative consequences on their users.Using PIGsgenerates risks,instead of Probabilities and Consequences Are Poorly Defined, Arbitrarilysolving your and Wrongly Scaled! Risks areBusiness Misrepresented!problems: this isa real PIG froma large projectRiskAssessment. (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 3 of 24 12/10/2012
  4. 4. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.To prove how misleading PIGs can be, look atsome historic and recent sets of tolerabilitycriteria & real probability-consequences data... (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 4 of 24 12/10/2012
  5. 5. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization....and plot the PIG on top, discrepanciesbecome evident, misrepresentation is blatant!We can fore-see thatcases will bechallengedin Courts ofLaw againstcompaniesusing PIGsfor theirrisk asse-ssments andthe resultingdecisions. (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 5 of 24 12/10/2012
  6. 6. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets guess, your car has abetter cockpit than this oldclunker!Modern cars have moresophisticated instruments,right?However, in your companyyou probably still use thisPIG matrix as a RM/ERMcockpit.At Riskope we believe your business deservesbetter than this rudimentary, obsolete tool! Manageit using all available information...read further! (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 6 of 24 12/10/2012
  7. 7. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.From the early 90s on clients startedasking for real MEASUREMENT OF RISK.They understood that bringing riskmanagement in, even at (Pre) FeasibilityStage, would CREATE VALUE. VALUE.They are starting now to look atSTRATEGIC INTEGRATION OF RISK.There was no chance that a flawed,simplistic, misrepresenting PIG wouldbring them satisfying replies...Riskope replies...Riskopehad to start building innovative solutions.(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 7 of 24 12/10/2012
  8. 8. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.From the end of the 90s we started using ORE v.1.0allowing explicit measures & uncertainties thanks tothe “bubbles”.Instead ofarbitraryIndexes weused realvalues, wevalues,introducedexplicitlydefinedClientstolerabilitythresholds,enabling the measurement and understanding ofthe holistic Business risks environment... (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 8 of 24 12/10/2012
  9. 9. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets summarize PIGs characteristics and seehow the latest versions of ORE solve them: them:-Arbitrary selection of cell limits, Eliminated-Arbitrary selection of “coloring” frontiers,Eliminated-Simplistic definition of consequences, solved bygenerating wide spectrum Consequence functions-Lack of “resolution” between risks, Eliminated-Fuzzy results, poor decision makingsupport, EliminatedWe will now see the advantages brought in by Oredeployment...(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 9 of 24 12/10/2012
  10. 10. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Case Study 1We will use, for this first Case Study, OperationTen (OT) belonging to our client AAA Inc. (AAA)(names, locations and risk names have beenaltered to respect clients confidentiality), amedium sized business. Geographic location,business type and product(s) do not matter forthis discussion.They had prepared a PIG.... PIG....(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 10 of 24 12/10/2012
  11. 11. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Using common procedures andinstructions for the definition ofprobabilities/frequencies andconsequences.Class Frequency of Failure 1 1 in over 100 years 2 1 between10 to 100 years 3 1 between 5 to 10 years 4 1 between 1 to 5 years 5 more than 1 failure per yearClass Severity 1 $0 to $1,000,000 in costs 2 $1,000,000 to $5,000,000 in costs 3 $5,000,000 to $15,000,000 in costs 4 $15,000,000 to $50,000,000 in costs 5 more than $50,000,000 in costs (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 11 of 24 12/10/2012
  12. 12. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.They defined 50 risks which split into:-0 Severe-14 High-25 Medium-11 Low risksThey called Riskope in to help becausethey did not know how to tackle 14high, 25 medium...too fuzzy, toocostly!!!(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 12 of 24 12/10/2012
  13. 13. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Riskope deployed ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates) asRiskope teaches in short courses all over the world.ORE is the result of twenty years experience world-wide and has been deployed for various clients,including Fortune 500 at various stages includingacquisitions, pre-feasibility, operations, changes.We will now see how ORE help formulating strategicand tactical plans, increase to get a clearer roadmapfor managing, decision making, etc... (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 13 of 24 12/10/2012
  14. 14. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Lets build a Tolerability Curve: we display it here ontop of the original clients PIGs cells, for comparison.A specific TolerabilityCurve exists for anyproject, operation,company.NB: if uncertainties areincluded then youd seea band instead of a line,and risks would beplotted as “bubbles”, onthis p-C diagram. (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 14 of 24 12/10/2012
  15. 15. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. For each risk lets evaluate the intolerable part (orange) v.s. tolerable part (blue).(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 15 of 24 12/10/2012
  16. 16. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. Top 20 Total Risks prioritization. However, prioritization. we can do better than that!(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 16 of 24 12/10/2012
  17. 17. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.The best Risks prioritization is based on theintolerable part as discriminant. It constitutesthe core of ORE because......the only risks thatactually matter for yourcompany are the onesthat extend above theTolerability Criteriacreated for your specificproject/operation/company.(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 17 of 24 12/10/2012
  18. 18. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Now it is possible to take rational decisions inallotting mitigative funds, planning ahead!ORE show that in thisCase only 5 scenarioscount for 83% of thetotal intolerable risks.Concentrating on themwill greatly improvethe situation.Five instead of 14(+25) suggested byPIG. (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 18 of 24 12/10/2012
  19. 19. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.Case Study 2We will use, as a second case study, a diversifiedproducer of equipment and service company.Again, names, locations and risk names havebeen altered to respect clients confidentiality.This is a complex international business producingin three different countries and delivering to manymore. Geographic location, business type andproduct(s) do not matter for this discussion.They had always used PIGs.... PIGs....(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 19 of 24 12/10/2012
  20. 20. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization....but realized that:PIGs are too limited to evaluate all risks – whereasORE is a broad based risk assessment tool, usedglobally and based on actual activity, results, anddata available, compliant with ISO 31000.Furthermore they recognized that Riskope hasunique academic preparation, experience, &research & application of Risk Assessment world-wideRiskope deployed ORE... (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 20 of 24 12/10/2012
  21. 21. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. These pictures are another example of ORE results displaying tools(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 21 of 24 12/10/2012
  22. 22. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. But the most comprehensive is a ORE Cockpit.Acme Inc. Sources of Threats4 Divisions:A,B,C,D;Diversified3 countries;InternationalExports. Potential Losses per Product Logistic Risks Media Vulnerability Hazardous Sectors (c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 22 of 24 12/10/2012
  23. 23. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization. What Clients Say about Riskope.... I want to express my gratitude for all of the time and effort you have put inbefore and during the ... hearings.... I very much enjoyed getting to work with you in person, and have tried tolearn as much I can from your and Cesars approach, reasoning, and methods. It has been a real treat for me. I believe you have offered a perspective unlikeany other experts we have had.…..lots of challenges, so again thank you for your endless help....Riskopes results are irrefutable, transparent, fact-based....Rigourous development coming from a group with solid real-life experience andoutstanding theoretical skills....Riskope is never boxed in the “lets do like all the others” scheme. On thecontrary, they always seek the development of tools matching exactly clientsneeds and requirements(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 23 of 24 12/10/2012
  24. 24. Optimum Risk Estimates (ORE)® will help you steering your organization.ORE are the keyto your businessprosperity,survival andsustainability.With Riskopeand ORE youcan “drive”safely towardsyour goals. CONTACT: Franco Oboni foboni(a)riskope.com(c)Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. www.riskope.com foboni(a)riskope.com Page 24 of 24 12/10/2012
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