Balangero Asbestos Tailings Dump Environmental Rehabilitation

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This presentation shows how Risk Based Decision Making was performed on a real project (which won an international call for bids), using Riskope's CDA/ESM project evaluation methodology.

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Balangero Asbestos Tailings Dump Environmental Rehabilitation

  1. 1. Using Risk as a Driving Parameter in the Design of the  Environmental Rehabilitaton  of an  Asbestos Mine Dump F. & C. Oboni Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     1 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  2. 2. Width 800 m Height 200 – 250 m Estimated Volume 50­60 Mm3 Slope 35 – 45 degrees Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     2 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  3. 3. Before...and after first phase. It looks simple... Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     3 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  4. 4. ... but it is not! Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     4 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  5. 5. At each design step risk has been integrated in the decision making process: By using the  CDA/ESM (Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic  Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Bla bla Bla Bla Bla Bla Safety Margin) developed by Riskope International  with CDA/ESM alternatives can be compared all along  their life cycle, from cradle to grave Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     5 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  6. 6. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     6 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  7. 7. CDA/ESM includes a simplified risk analysis for each phase  characterising the life of a project.  Two code compliant alternatives can feature  completely different risk profiles:  EXAMPLE: using an aerial tramway to haul waste  material, rather than trucks. It is important to recognize that alternatives' risks may  have very different time frames, which is taken into  account by CDA/ESM Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     7 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  8. 8. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     8 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  9. 9. CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to a  number of international projects and is taught in  specific courses by Riskope International.  Thanks to CDA/ESM cimparing alternatives becomes:  Clear and concrete,  Trasparent  Riproductible  Justifiable Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     9 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  10. 10. When deploying CDA/ESM risk scenarios are  expressed numerically and graphically.  For each scenario the following has to be defined: Max estimated Probability of event  Max estimated cost of event Min estimated Probability of event Min estimated cost of event Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     10 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  11. 11. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     11 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  12. 12. Risk can be displayed in a Probability­Cost plot as a  “Risk Bubble” Probabilità Likelihood 1.00 1/10 per year 35,000$ 200$ 1/100 per year 0.00 Conseguenza Consequence Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     12 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  13. 13. It is intuitively easy to add to the Risk Bubble  reputational/public opinion damages, converted  in monetary values, see the red line. Probabilità Likelihood 1.00 1/10 per year 35,000$ 200$ 1/100 per year 0.00 Conseguenza Consequence Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     13 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  14. 14. This is an example of a Risk Analysis result.  NB:  The Risk Bubbles are displayed only with their centers or to vertical segments to display their uncertainty 1 1/10 Probability 1/100 1/1000 ..... 1 in a  Million Consequence  in MUS$ Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     14 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  15. 15. Can you see the difference? The left image shows risks (14). Right image displays the tolerability on top of risks. The right plot clearly indicates that only 7 out of the 14 are  intolerable; of those CDA/ESM will show that actually only 3 are truly significant! This outcome generates  huge economic returns Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     15 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  16. 16. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     16 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  17. 17. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     17 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  18. 18. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     18 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
  19. 19. Conclusions Thanks to specific methodologies it is possible to: Select the riskiest scenarios and mitigate them at preliminary design level already, Draw attention of all stakeholders to rational priorities, Define a mitigation masterplan of a project all along its life. This will enable to generate more rational and sustainable projects. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com     19 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

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