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Economic Downturn Magnitude and Duration Quantitative Study, November 2008 Franco & Cesar Oboni Riskope International Rational and sustainable risk management requires quantitative understanding Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com 1

Crisis Forecast, November 2008 Duration Probabilities : •30% less than 1.5 years Spring 2010 •80% less than 3 years Fall 2011 •10% longer than 6 years past 2014 Magnitude Probabilities: •20% present situation will persist •25% significant worsening •55% critical evolution of disservice Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com 2

Crisis' Duration Probabilities Crisis Forecast, November 2008 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 Crisis' Magnitude Probabilities Less than 1.5 to 3 yrs 3-6 yrs More than 1.5 yrs 6 yrs 0.2 Persistance of Present Situation Significant Worsening 0.55 Critical Evolution 0.25 of Disservice Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com 3

Details available upon request via contact page at http://www.riskope.com These results can help building rational risk management strategies. Contact us, Franco & Cesar Oboni Riskope International Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com 4

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