Perspectives on the Economic Outlook            for 2012-2013        Tony Villamil, Chairman         Economic Roundtable  ...
The 2011-2012 Economic Environment Presented at Last Year’s               Board Retreat: Update to Current Outlook    Last...
Macroeconomic External Factors Impacting the Outlook for Miami-Dade:                          A Rank Order                ...
Global Economy: A Key Driver for Miami-Dade County Has Started                     to Slowdown in 2012Region/Country      ...
U.S. Economy: Below Potential Economic Growth Through 2013Indicator                                                2010   ...
Florida Economy: Modest Growth, but Strong “Headwinds”                         Late 2012 and Into 2013Indicators          ...
Miami-Dade County Economic Indicators Outperforming the State this           Year, but 2013 Depends on Global Developments...
Miami-Dade: Positive Business Climate, but Laboring Against Strong                      “Headwinds” 2012-2013     FED Fami...
Conclusions: Keeping This Economist “Awake in Miami” Miami-Dade’s economy outperforming rest of Florida through 2012, wit...
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Perspectives on the Economic Outlook for 2012-2013

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Perspectives on the Economic Outlook for 2012-2013, Economic Roundtable, The Beacon Council

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Perspectives on the Economic Outlook for 2012-2013

  1. 1. Perspectives on the Economic Outlook for 2012-2013 Tony Villamil, Chairman Economic Roundtable The Beacon Council July 20, 2012
  2. 2. The 2011-2012 Economic Environment Presented at Last Year’s Board Retreat: Update to Current Outlook Last Year‘s Presentation 2011-2012 Current Outlook 2012-2013• Prolonged period of below potential economic • Greater-than-expected slowdown in first-half of growth in U.S., foreign economies, U.S. states and 2012 (U.S., Eurozone and Emerging Markets), with regions continued slow growth through 2013. Global recession in 2013???• Highly constrained fiscal situation, public sector a • Fiscal pressures likely to continue through 2013 at “drag” on employment growth U.S., Florida and local levels• Possible pick up in inflationary expectations due to • Not happening as of mid-2012. Outlook positive sharp monetary base expansion for low and stable inflationary expectations through 2013, with continuation of very low real interest rates• Counties with diversified economic base in Florida • YES! But for 2013 slowing European and Emerging will outperform counties dependent on population- Markets are a concern for globally driven counties driven economic activity: ADVANTAGE MIAMI- and regions like South Florida DADE
  3. 3. Macroeconomic External Factors Impacting the Outlook for Miami-Dade: A Rank Order MDC Global Economy U.S. Economy Florida Economy
  4. 4. Global Economy: A Key Driver for Miami-Dade County Has Started to Slowdown in 2012Region/Country 2010 2011 2012E 2013FWorld Output Growth (%), of which 5.3 3.9 3.0 3.5 Euro Area 1.9 1.5 -0.5 1.0 Japan 4.4 -0.7 2.0 2.5 Canada 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.5 United Kingdom 2.1 0.7 FLAT 1.5Selected Emerging Markets China 10.4 9.2 7.0 7.5 Brazil 7.5 2.7 2.5 4.0 Mexico 5.6 3.9 2.0 3.5 Argentina 9.2 8.9 2.0 1.0 Colombia 4.0 5.9 4.0 4.5 Chile 6.1 6.0 5.0 5.5 Peru 8.8 6.9 6.0 5.0Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, July 2012 Update and United Nations ECLAC,June 2012 and the Washington Economics Group (WEG) for Estimates (E) and Forecasts (F).
  5. 5. U.S. Economy: Below Potential Economic Growth Through 2013Indicator 2010 2011 2012E 2013FEconomic Growth ( % Real GDP) 3.0 1.7 1.5 2.0PCE Deflator (∆ %) 1.2 2.1 2.0 2.0Payroll Employment (∆ %) -0.7 1.2 1.0 1.5Unemployment Rate (%) 9.6 9.0 8.0 7.5Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Washington Economics Group,Inc. for Estimates (E) and Forecasts (F).
  6. 6. Florida Economy: Modest Growth, but Strong “Headwinds” Late 2012 and Into 2013Indicators 2010 2011 2012E 2013FPopulation (∆ %) 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.0Real GDP (∆ %) 1.4 2.5 2.0 1.5Total Taxable Sales (∆ %) 2.4 6.2 4.0 3.5Total Non–Ag Employment (∆ %) -0.7 1.2 1.0 1.5Export Growth (∆ %) 22.0 19.0 15.0 8.0Existing Single-Family Home Sales(∆ %) -4.0 -3.0  Sources: Florida Department of Economic Opportunities, Enterprise Florida, Florida EDR, Florida Association ofRealtors and The Washington Economic Group, Inc. (WEG) for Estimates (E) and Forecasts (F).
  7. 7. Miami-Dade County Economic Indicators Outperforming the State this Year, but 2013 Depends on Global DevelopmentsIndicator 2010 2011 20121Payroll Employment (∆ %), of which -0.4 2.3 1.7 Construction -12.5 -4.0 -11.0 Wholesale Trade -1.0 1.9 3.2 Retail Trade 2.6 4.9 5.2 Financial Activities -2.6 0.8 -2.2 Professional & Business Services 0.6 4.3 2.0 Education and Health Services 1.2 4.1 5.1 Leisure and Hospitality 4.2 3.4 2.6Total Taxable Sales Growth (∆ %) 2.1 11.7 5.9Total International Trade (∆ %) 20.0 17.0 11.0Overnight Visitors(∆ %) 5.6 7.0 9.6Sources: Florida Department of Economic Opportunities, Florida EDR, U.S. Census Bureau, Int’l Trade Statistics andGreater Miami Convention and Visitor’s Bureau.1Same period year ago. * Miami-Miami Beach-Kendal Metropolitan Division.
  8. 8. Miami-Dade: Positive Business Climate, but Laboring Against Strong “Headwinds” 2012-2013 FED Family Survey • Sharp decline in U.S. real family median income of 7.7% between 2007 and 2010 • U.S. family median net worth down a large 38.8% during same period Florida (FED of Atlanta) • Lost 11.5% of total employment from peak to bottom • Has gained only 2.4% of the jobs back through May 2012 • Large Metro Areas “improving,” but smaller Metro Areas “contracting” Global Economy (IMF, July 2012 Outlook Update) • Past 3 months, global recovery has shown signs of further weakness • World ouput down to 3% growth this year, with modest pick up in 2013
  9. 9. Conclusions: Keeping This Economist “Awake in Miami” Miami-Dade’s economy outperforming rest of Florida through 2012, with 2013 outlook dependent on global developments Real estate markets recovering faster-than-expected in Miami Dade, primarily due to “cash” purchases. How sustainable in 2013? Global economy slowing down in mid-2012, with modest growth expected in 2013. Risks on downside Significant differences in Florida regional performance depending on economic structure and diversification Other than that, watch the general elections of Nov 2012!

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