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Florida Energy Pipeline Association 23rd Annual Summer Symposium July 19, 2012Berne L. Mosley, Energy Projects Consulting, LLC
Infrastructure Trends -- Shale Gas as a Driverand the Associated “Ripple” Effects… Pipeline / Storage Impacts Flow Changes Rate Proceedings Infrastructure Status LNG Exports FERC Export Terminals – Status DOE /FE Commodity Export Authorizations Economic Impacts
Changes in Historic Patterns Traditional southwest to northeast pipeline flow is changing… Marcellus shale is closer to the traditional market areas, thus displacing gulf / southwest production…cheaper transportation costs, quicker access Pipelines are getting FERC approval to reverse pipeline flow to provide the ability to export shale gas to Canada Pipelines are experiencing low load factors in the central parts of their systems, and many are seeking to reverse flow and take ethane rich shale supplies to the natural gas liquids markets in the gulf
Rate ProceedingsWith low load factors in the central parts of their systems, some pipelinesare responding with rate / tariff changes: Columbia Gulf Transmission Tennessee Gas Pipeline CorporationBoth revised mileage-based transportation rates to “postage stamp” ratesto offset lost / diminished transportation services on their systems owingto shale gas development.This trend is likely to continue…
Infrastructure Status Approved Pipeline Projects -- 2012Source -- http://ferc.gov/industries/gas/indus-act/pipelines/approved-projects.asp
Infrastructure Status Pending Pipeline Projects -- 2012Source -- http://ferc.gov/industries/gas/indus-act/pipelines/pending-projects.asp
DOE / Fossil Energy Commodity Exports Applications Received by DOE/FE to Export Domestically Produced LNG from the Lower-48 States (as of June 15, 2012)(1) FTA – Applications to export to free trade agreement (FTA) countries. The Natural GasAct, as amended, has deemed FTA exports to be in the public interest and applicationsshall be authorized without modification or delay.(2) Non-FTA applications require DOE to post a notice of application in the FederalRegister for comments, protests and motions to intervene, and to evaluate the applicationto make a public interest consistency determination.Source: Office of Oil and Gas Global Security and Supply, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S.Department of Energy
Economic Impacts - EIA Study January 2012*DOE/FE provided four scenarios of export-related increases in natural gas demand(Figure 1) to be considered:• 6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d),phased in at a rate of 1 Bcf/d per year(low/slow scenario),• 6 Bcf/d phased in at a rate of 3 Bcf/d peryear (low/rapid scenario),• 12 Bcf/d phased in at a rate of 1 Bcf/dper year (high/slow scenario), and• 12 Bcf/d phased in at a rate of 3 Bcf/dper year (high/rapid scenario). * http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/
EIA Study - Summary of ResultsIncreased natural gas exports lead to: higher domestic natural gas prices increased domestic natural gas production reduced domestic natural gas consumption increased natural gas imports from Canadavia pipeline.
Applications Received by DOE/FE to Expor t DomesticallyProduced LNG from the Lower-48 States (as of June 15,2012)Source: Office of Oil and Gas Global Security and Supply, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S.Department of Energy
Applications Received by DOE/FE to Expor t DomesticallyProduced LNG from the Lower-48 States (as of June 15,2012) -- FootnotesSource: Office of Oil and Gas Global Security and Supply, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S.Department of Energy