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NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast
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NOR Flash Memory Market Forecast

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  • 1. Flat Prices & Growing Megabytes Spawn Surging Revenues Second Quarter 2004 NOR Pricing & Forecast August 2004 Study Number: NV109-04
  • 2. © Copyright Semico Research, 2004. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part is prohibited without the express written permission of Semico. The contents of this report represent the interpretation and analysis of statistics and information that is generally available to the public or released by responsible agencies or individuals, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.
  • 3. Table of Contents Table of Contents.......................................................................................................i List of Tables .............................................................................................................iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................iv Executive Summary: Forecast & Price Survey Findings ...........................................1 Forecast Methodology................................................................................................2 Second Quarter 2004 Market Overview ....................................................................4 Second Quarter vs. Flash History...............................................................................5 Top-Level NAND + NOR Forecasts..........................................................................8 Revenues ........................................................................................................9 Unit Shipments ..............................................................................................12 Average Selling Prices ...................................................................................14 Megabyte Shipments......................................................................................15 Average Density.............................................................................................16 Price per Megabyte ........................................................................................17 NOR Overview ..........................................................................................................20 Year-by Year NOR Forecast Scenarios .....................................................................22 NOR Forecast Details ................................................................................................24 Price Survey Responses: “Steady as She Goes!” .......................................................31 256K and 512K NOR.....................................................................................32 1Mb NOR.......................................................................................................34 2Mb NOR.......................................................................................................35 4Mb NOR.......................................................................................................36 8Mb NOR.......................................................................................................37 16Mb NOR.....................................................................................................38 32Mb NOR.....................................................................................................39 64Mb NOR.....................................................................................................40 128Mb NOR...................................................................................................41 Firmware Hub Prices by Density ...............................................................................43 2Mb Firmware Hub........................................................................................44 4Mb Firmware Hub........................................................................................45 2004 © Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved NOR Outlook 2004 – Second Quarter Pricing & Forecast i
  • 4. 8Mb Firmware Hub........................................................................................47 Summary ....................................................................................................................48 2004 © Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved NOR Outlook 2004 – Second Quarter Pricing & Forecast ii
  • 5. List of Tables Table 1. NAND and NOR Worldwide Revenues and Growth Rates ............................... 11 Table 2. NAND and NOR Worldwide Unit Shipments and Growth Rates...................... 13 Table 3. NAND and NOR Worldwide Overall ASP and ASP Growth............................ 14 Table 4. NAND and NOR Worldwide Megabyte Shipments and Growth....................... 16 Table 5. NAND and NOR Worldwide Average Price per Megabyte and Growth........... 18 Table 6. Worldwide NOR Revenue Forecast................................................................... 26 Table 7. Worldwide NOR Unit Shipment Forecast ......................................................... 27 Table 8. Worldwide NOR ASP Forecast ......................................................................... 27 Table 9. Worldwide NOR Megabyte Shipment Forecast................................................. 28 Table 10. Worldwide NOR Quarterly Revenue Forecast................................................. 28 Table 11. Worldwide NOR Quarterly Unit Shipment Forecast ....................................... 29 Table 12. Worldwide NOR Quarterly ASP Forecast ....................................................... 29 Table 13. Worldwide NOR Quarterly Megabyte Shipment Forecast .............................. 30 Table 14. NOR Pricing 256K — 128Mb ........................................................................ 32 Table 15. Firmware Hub Pricing 2Mb to 8Mb................................................................ 43 2004 © Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved NOR Outlook 2004 – Second Quarter Pricing & Forecast iii
  • 6. List of Figures Figure 1. Semico 2003 NAND + NOR Forecast Accuracy................................................ 5 Figure 2. Combined NAND + NOR Price per Megabyte versus Cost ............................... 6 Figure 3. Combined NAND + NOR Days of Inventory..................................................... 7 Figure 4. NAND and NOR Worldwide Revenues............................................................ 12 Figure 5. NAND and NOR Worldwide Unit Shipments .................................................. 13 Figure 6. NAND and NOR Worldwide Overall Average Selling Price ........................... 15 Figure 7. NAND and NOR Worldwide Megabyte Shipments ......................................... 16 Figure 8. NAND and NOR Average Density ................................................................... 17 Figure 9. NAND and NOR Worldwide Average Price per Megabyte ............................. 19 Figure 10. 256K NOR Pricing.......................................................................................... 33 Figure 11. 512K NOR Pricing.......................................................................................... 34 Figure 12. 1Mb NOR Pricing ........................................................................................... 35 Figure 13. 2Mb NOR Pricing ........................................................................................... 36 Figure 14. 4Mb NOR Pricing ........................................................................................... 37 Figure 15. 8Mb NOR Pricing ........................................................................................... 38 Figure 16. 16Mb NOR Pricing ......................................................................................... 39 Figure 17. 32Mb NOR Pricing ......................................................................................... 40 Figure 18. 64Mb NOR Pricing ......................................................................................... 41 Figure 19. 128Mb NOR Pricing ....................................................................................... 42 Figure 20. 2Mb FWH Pricing.......................................................................................... 45 Figure 11. 4Mb FWH Pricing.......................................................................................... 46 Figure 22. 8Mb FWH Pricing.......................................................................................... 47 2004 © Semico Research Corp. All Rights Reserved NOR Outlook 2004 – Second Quarter Pricing & Forecast iv

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