The Five Best and Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best and Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 After years of decline and false starts, price stability is returning to U.S. housing markets. But the pace of recovery will be uneven. See which markets the Fiserv® Case-Shiller Indexes® project will improve the most – or fare the worst - in 2011

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best and Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011
Fiserv ranks the five best and five worst U.S. housing markets for 2011, based on the latest data from the Fiserv ® Case-Shiller Indexes ®
The indexes track more than 375 U.S. markets; rankings highlighted here include metro areas with populations of 500,000 or more
The indexes are owned and generated by Fiserv, the leading global provider of financial services technology solutions, and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency
Rankings are based on the projected changes in home prices from the fourth quarter of 2010 through the fourth quarter of 2011
Fiserv Case-Shiller home price forecasts are produced by Fiserv and Moody’s Analytics
For more information about the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, including the latest quarterly results, visit: __________________________

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Median House Price $119,000 Projected 2011 Price Increase 1.3% Unemployment Rate 7.6% Housing Vacancies 7.7% In the upstate New York city of Rochester, prices bottomed out in the third quarter of 2010, and are on track to begin growing, albeit modestly, this year. Two factors working in Rochester’s favor: the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, is notably below the national average. And prices are affordable – the median monthly mortgage payment is only 9 percent of the median monthly family income. Rochester, New York 5

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Median House Price $141,000 Projected 2011 Price Increase 1.4% Unemployment Rate 10.0% Housing Vacancies 8.3% Boise City is an example of a bubble market that will rebound from its low swiftly, as buyers try to get in at the market bottom. The market is attractive because of its geographic amenities (mountains, rivers, lakes) and climate (very little rain). While Boise’s unemployment rate is above the U.S. average, it has a fairly diverse economy, including state government , resources (such as timber) and technology. Boise City-Nampa, Idaho 4

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Median House Price $130,000 Projected 2011 Price Increase 2.0% Unemployment Rate 7.1% Housing Vacancies 9.1% Pittsburgh has been one of the nation’s most resilient housing markets. Homes prices here have largely held their value, declining just 1 percent since the market peaked at the end of 2007. The city’s success in diversifying its economy in recent decades has enabled it to weather economic headwinds much better than it did during the recession of 1981. But while forecasts in Pittsburgh are strong in the short-run, the market will be limited by weak population growth in the longer term. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 3

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Memphis, Tennessee 2 Median House Price $96,000 Projected 2011 Price Increase 2.7% Unemployment Rate 10.2% Housing Vacancies 10.8% By several key measures, Memphis has been on the front end of the housing downturn. Prices peaked in early 2006 and fell about 22 percent before reaching their expected trough in the fourth quarter of 2008. While unemployment and vacancy rates are above the national average, prices remain affordable and the city is poised to experience solid home price appreciation of 2.7 percent this year.

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Best U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Tacoma, Washington 1 Median House Price $225,000 Projected 2011 Price Increase 5.5% Unemployment Rate 10.0% Housing Vacancies 7.8% Tacoma’s housing market ranks first in the nation this year. Fiserv Case-Shiller projects home prices will rise 5.5 percent in 2011, compared to an average decline of 3 percent nationally. Tacoma has good company in Washington: three of the nation’s top five best-performing housing markets are expected to be in this Pacific Northwest state. The other two are Spokane (5.2 percent) and Bellingham (4.9 percent).

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Median House Price $214,000 Projected 2011 Price Decrease -14.4% Unemployment Rate 11.1% Housing Vacancies 18.1% The laws of supply and demand are in full view in West Palm Beach, where nearly one in five (18 percent) homes are vacant. Since the peak of the real estate market in 2006, home prices here have fallen by nearly half (49.4 percent). Prices are expected to fall another 14.4 percent by early 2012. Because West Palm Beach peaked later than other bubble markets, full restoration of affordability will happen later than in other markets. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Florida 5

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 Median House Price $185,000 Projected 2011 Price Decrease -15.9% Unemployment Rate 13.9% Housing Vacancies 13.5% This metro area, home to 4.1 million people, suffers from an unemployment rate of almost 14 percent. Nationally, nine of the 10 metro areas with the highest unemployment rate are in California. Of the 28 metro areas in California tracked by Fiserv Case-Shiller, all but three have unemployment rates above the national average. High unemployment rates in California are a direct consequence of the collapse in construction and real estate activity. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California 4

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 3 Median House Price $190,000 Projected 2011 Price Decrease -17.3% Unemployment Rate 13.1% Housing Vacancies 12.3% Like many once high-flying markets, home prices in Miami fell hard, dropping 53.6 percent since the peak in the first quarter of 2007. Even as markets across the U.S. are returning to balance, Miami is on track to be one of the last housing markets to stabilize. Fiserv Case-Shiller forecasts that prices will continue to decline through 2012. One of the challenges here is affordability. The ratio of median home prices to family income is 3.7, compared to the national average of 2.8. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 2 Median House Price $56,000 Projected 2011 Price Decrease -18.2% Unemployment Rate 13.0% Housing Vacancies 14.5% Markets in the industrial Midwest missed the bubble in housing but not the pain of recession. The loss of manufacturing jobs and high unemployment reduced housing demand and prices in many metro areas in the industrial Midwest, including markets in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. In Detroit, prices are expected to fall another 18.2 percent this year. Detroit, Livonia, Dearborn, Michigan

Leaders and Laggards: The Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011 1 Median House Price $155,000 Projected 2011 Price Decrease -19.0% Unemployment Rate 10.7% Housing Vacancies 15.3% Orlando is home to the Magic Kingdom. But there is little magic on the real Main Street Orlando. Since the peak, home price have lost more than half their value. This year, prices are on track to lose almost one-fifth of their remaining value. This ranks Orlando as the worst-performing housing market for 2011. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida

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The Five Best and Five Worst U.S. Housing Markets in 2011

by Fiserv on May 09, 2011

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