Aktieanalytikerns perspektiv: Så bör den finansiella rapporteringen utformas för att fylla sitt syfte

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Så bör den finansiella rapporteringen utformas för att fylla sitt syfte …

Så bör den finansiella rapporteringen utformas för att fylla sitt syfte

Svenska bolag lägger ned stora resurser på att ta fram siffermaterial och finansiell rapportering. Dels med syfte på att uppfylla uppställda regelverk och krav, men även för att sprida rätt information bland analytiker och för att attrahera intresse bland investerare. I detta föredrag får du veta hur en analytiker läser ditt företags rapporter och hur ditt bolag kan få ut större nytta av rapporteringen.

Talare: Robert Gärtner, Equity Research, Handelsbanken.

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  • 1. IFRS SYMPOSIUMHearing 26 september 2011Aktieanalytikerns perspektivRobert Gärtner, Analytiker, roga03@handelsbanken.se
  • 2. ”Aktieanalytiker är ointresserade av redovisningsfrågor!” Aktieanalytiker redovisningsfrågor!2
  • 3. ”Ju mer information desto bättre!” Ju bättre!3
  • 4. Aktieanalytikern ska i slutändan kunna svara på en enda fråga  Analys & prognos av vinster  Analys & prognos av finansiering Ä aktien kö ä d? Är k i köpvärd?  Analys & prognos av kassaflöden  Värdering av aktiekapitalet4
  • 5. ”Rörelsen” är i fokus Rörelsen  Intäkter (transaktioner)  Investeringsbehov  Marknadsposition  Cash conversion  Marknadssituation  Capex Going concern  Fi Finansieringsbehov i i b h  Aktiekapital  Räntebärande skulder - tillgångar  Annat (inkl IAS 17 & 19)5
  • 6. Aktieanalys är framåtblickande – Redovisning historiebeskrivande6
  • 7. Vinstprognoser Kvartal i fokus för löpande analysverksamheten  Men helårsestimaten centrala för värdering Ignorerar ”icke-uthålliga” poster  Reavinster  Värdeförändringar 3-4 år explicita prognoser Upp till 20 prognosår i modellerna→Grund för värdering g7
  • 8. Aktievärdering: ”Det finns fler än ett sätt att flå en katt ” Det katt...8
  • 9. ...men principen för all aktievärdering är densamma! men D P kg Myron J. Gordon (1920-2010)9
  • 10. Värdering av det egna kapitalet direkt direkt... P ROE g  BV - kg Problem:  Vad är egentligen ”vinst” (E)? vinst P/ E ROE g -  ”Vinst till aktieägarna” Div ROE k  g  P  Men: IAS 19, 38, 39, 40, 41... kg  Finansiering beaktas inte P/ BV ROE g -  Investeringsbehovet oklart (ρ) k  g g ROE 1 10
  • 11. ...eller indirekt, dvs via firm value (DCF) eller indirekt Firm value Non-op & financing + Non-op assets n FCFFt 1 FCFFn1 - Net debtEquity value    x + t 1   WACC  1 t (1  WACC )n WACC  g - Minorities +/- Off balance sheet / b l h t  ”K ”Kassaflöde” i stället fö ” i t” flöd ” täll t för ”vinst”:  FCFF = EBIT (1-T) – Inv – ΔRK + Avskr  Explicit värdering av finansiering (nettoskuld)  Vad är räntebärande? (IAS 17, 19)  Investeringsbehovet tydliggörs  Kostnaden för finansieringen beaktas (WACC) 11
  • 12. Revenue recognition - Exempel: Byggbolagen IFRIC 15  Skanska har fått användarna att helt frångå IFRS  Omöjligt att jämföra ”segmentredovisningen” mellan byggbolagen pga olika tolkningar hur successiv vinstavräkning genomförs Skanska  Fullständig rapportering enligt successiv vinstavräkning (IAS 11) Peab & JM  Visar segmentresultat med ”IFRIC-justering” (Peab särredovisar dock inte bostäder)  JM Q2: större IFRIC15-effekt än förväntat NCC  Följer helt IFRIC 15 Andra problem med ”Completed contract”-principen (IAS18)  Otydliga samband mellan intäkt/vinst och rådande marknadssituation  Tveksamt om CC är bra styrmedel med tanke på ledtiden12
  • 13. Värdeförändringar i resultatet – Exempel förvaltningsfastigheter (IAS 40)  Ingen förbättring  Volatilare vinster  Tolkningsproblem  Bra med värdering av fastigheter...  ...objektivitet? objektivitet?13
  • 14. Fastighetsbolag – Värdeförändringar i resultatet Castellum Wallenstam Atrium LjungbergDriftsöverskott Ja Nej j ”Bruttoresultat”Rörelseresultat Nej Efter VF Före VFResultat före VF ”Förvaltningsresultat” Nej ”Resultat före värdeförändringar” ä d fö ä d i ”Ingår derivat i VF? Ja Nej NejOCI Nej Ja Ja14
  • 15. Fastigheter – Vinst i f t hyresintäkter i.f.t 150% 100% 50% 0% ‐50% ‐100% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Inc fr prop mgmt EBT15
  • 16. Fastigheter – Verkligt värde? 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% BV/FV 2004 (pre‐IFRS) MV/FV 2004 (pre‐IFRS) MV/FV 2005 MV/FV Q2 201116
  • 17. Leasing (IAS 17) Runt 40% av bolagen på de Present value operating leases/Market cap nordiska börserna har ett uppskattat 140% 120% nuvärde på mer än 10% av market 100% cap 80% 60% Påverkar värdering krona för krona 40%  Diskonterat? 20% 0% Retail Transportation The jury is still out out... Net debt/EBITDA 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 10 0.0 Retail Transportation Orig Sim17
  • 18. Särskilt svåranalyserat svåranalyserat...18
  • 19. Pensioner (IAS 19) I praktiken så gott som omöjligt för extern analytiker (icke-aktuarie) att uppskatta ”verkligt” värde verkligt  IAS 19 möjliggör jämförelser mellan bolag avseende antaganden  ROA  Diskonteringsränta g  Personalomsättning  Löneökningar  Inflation I värdering – pensionsskuld ska betraktas som räntebärande skuld (med motsvarande räntebärande tillgång)  Bra att tas upp i BR som skuld & tillgång ( pp g g (istället för netto) )  Bra att återfinns i RR i finansnettot  Bra att värdeförändringar tas upp i OCI19
  • 20. Val av diskonteringsränta betydelsefull för värdering av pensioner 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10GBY CBMY20
  • 21. Finansiella instrument (IAS 39) ”Omöjligt” att prognostisera vinster/förluster ”Omöjligt” att prognostisera värdeförändringar Relevant för ”going-concern”? Skapar volatilitet i vinster – försvårar tolkningen Omklassificering…21
  • 22. Uppfyller IFRS sitt syfte? “The purpose of IFRS is to provide a single set of high quality, global accounting standards that require transparent and comparable information in general purpose financial statements"22
  • 23. IFRS ur Aktieanalytikerns perspektiv Generella observationer  Högre grad av transparens i räkenskaperna  Bättre jämförbarhet mellan bolag och över tiden (GW, pensioner, OCI)  Mer information vs tidspress V d h bli it sämre? Vad har blivit ä ?  Vinstmåttet (netto) har blivit mindre användbart  Värdet (och logiken) att ha värdeförändringar i RR tveksamt Vad är tveksamt?  Fortfarande stora frihetsgrader avseende tolkning och applicering av standards  Ex byggbolagen, förvaltningsfastigheter Intressant: kommande förändring av redovisning av leasingavtal Konsekvenser för analytikerkåren:  Förändringar i modeller, databaser modeller  Utbildning  Tidsfaktor23
  • 24. IFRS24
  • 25. DisclaimerResearch DisclaimersHandelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as ‘SHB’) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are preparedfrom trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the informationcontained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. No independent verification exercise has beenundertaken in respect of this information.Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change The information in the research reports does not constitute a change.personal recommendation or investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on reviews or opinions expressed when taking investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directorsor employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and non-investment banking financial services, including corporate bankingservices; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports.This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on inconnection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeitall principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising fromthem to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this documentcomes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by theSwedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulationby the UK Financial Services Authority are available from us on request.In the United Kingdom, the research reports are directed only at Professional clients and Eligible counterparties (as defined in the rules of the FSA) and the investments or services to which they relate areavailable only to such persons.The research reports must not be relied upon or acted on by private customers. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment customersbusiness and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that SHB has to its customers under the regulatory system in the UnitedKingdom. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of therespective analysts, and no part of analysts’ compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports.For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel +45 46 79 1613.In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the FSA but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme nor the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services andMarkets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report.When Distributed in the United StatesImportant Third-Party Research Disclosures:Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. SHB and its employees are not subject to the FINRA’s research analyst conflict rules. SHB research reports are intended for distribution inthe United States solely to “major U.S. institutional investors,” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research reportby its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person. Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHBto major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any fixed-income product discussed within the research reportsshould call or write SHB. Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. (“HMSI”) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S.person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI.HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number +1 212 326 5153.Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements:SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by theDanish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company.According to the Bank’s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as wellas other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, ormake public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions (“ethical walls”) in communication betweenthe Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank’s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other Bank addition structuredepartments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analystsare to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information onthe Bank’s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank’s website www.handelsbanken.com/About the bank/Investor relations/Corporate socialresponsibility/Ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research.7
  • 26. RecommendationsRecommendation Structure and AllocationsHandelsbanken Capital Markets Equity Research (HCM) employs a four graded recommendation scale. The recommendations reflect the analyst’s assessment of how much the share price may appreciate ordepreciate in absolute terms in a 12-month time horizon and takes into account risks related to both fundamental expectations and share performance. Investment ratings are determined by the ranges describedin the table below. The recommendations do not represent the analyst’s or the bank’s assessment of the company’s fundamental value or quality. All investments involve risks and investors are encouraged tomake th i own d i i as t th appropriateness of an i k their decision to the i t f investment i any securities referred t i thi report, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk t l t t in iti f d to in this t b d th i ifi i t t bj ti fi i l t t d i k tolerance. Th Therecommendations and absolute performance intervals, together with the allocation of the rating categories amongst companies under coverage and amongst companies under coverage for which Handelsbankenhas provided investment banking services in the past 12 months are listed in the table below:Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets, as per 30/06/2011At times, the expected total returns may fall outside of the above stated ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will becomesubject to review by Research Management. Recommendations are continuously reviewed by the analyst and monitored by the Research Management and will be updated and/or refreshed regularly. Therationale behind a change in recommendation will be explained in such a refresher/update.For the recommendation history of individual stocks, please consult our web site www.handelsbanken.com/capitalmarkets, or contact Robert Gärtner on tel +45 46 79 1613.8