Presentation of Steffen Noleppa, Agripol, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources Conference by Fertilizers Europe
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Presentation of Steffen Noleppa, Agripol, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources Conference by Fertilizers Europe

on

  • 585 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
585
Views on SlideShare
585
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Presentation of Steffen Noleppa, Agripol, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources Conference by Fertilizers Europe Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 1/19 Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 2. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 2/19Contents• Productivity growth in EU agriculture: recent evidence• The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad• Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture and its impact on land use• Conclusions: The policy and research perspective Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 3. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 3/19Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidenceTotal factor productivity growth by region, average growth rates p.a. (in %) TFP indexWorld region 1990-1999 2000-2006Western Europe 1.97 1.39Eastern Europe 1.03 0.58Middle East & North Africa 1.59 1.56North America 2.13 1.75Latin America & Carribean 2.38 2.48Northeast Asia, developed 2.55 3.08Southeast Asia 1.60 2.16Former USSR 1.60 3.28Oceania 1.90 –0.25Source: Fuglie (2008). Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 4. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 4/19Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidenceLand productivity in EU wheat and maize production, 1961-2009 (in mt/ha) Wheat Maize 8 8 y = 2,4474e 0,0272x 6 6 y = 2,0406e 0,0268x 4 4 2 2 0 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009Source: Kirschke, Häger and Noleppa (2011). Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 5. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 5/19Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidenceAnnual productivity growth in German crop production, 1961-2009 (in %) 1961-1990 1991-2009Wheat 2,4 1,1Corn 3,2 2,0Barley 2,2 0,7Rye 1,7 1,0OSR 2,4 1,7Sugar beets 1,3 1,6Potatoes 1,1 2,4Protein crops 2,0 0,3Source: von Witzke and Noleppa (2011, in press). Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 6. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 6/19Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidenceThere is a slowing down of productivity growth! What are the reasons?• Public R&D funding: - Slowing down in additional funding - Priority change: non-productive vs. productivity research areas• EU policy and regulatory framework: - Focus on agri-environmental measures and extensification - Very restrictive GMO policy• Global aspects: - Land availability is limited - Use of marginal land - Occurrence of resource degradation / soil erosion Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 7. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 7/19The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroadAgricultural land use in the European Union …• Territory of the EU: 433 million hectares• Utilized agricultural area: 180 million hectares• Arable land: 107 million hectares - in particular, cereals: 58 million hectares• Grassland: 58 million hectares.. is not enough to meet own demand. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 8. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 8/19The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroadEU net imports of virtual agricultural land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 On average -10 in 2008-2010: 29 million hectares -20 i.e. 27 percent of -30 EU‟s arable land. -40Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 9. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 9/19The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroadStructure of EU virtual net trade in agricultural land, on average 2008-2010:• By region: - South America: net imports of 20.0 million hectares, - Sub-Sahara-Africa: net imports of 4.2 million hectares, - CIS: net imports of 3.0 million hectares - North Africa and the Near East: net exports of 3.6 million hectares.• By crop: - Soybeans: virtual net imports of 14.7 million hectares, - Other oilseeds: virtual net imports of 7.4 million hectares, - Coffee/Cocoa: virtual net imports of 6.2 million hectares, - Wheat: virtual net exports of 2.0 million hectares. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 10. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 10/19The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroadSoybeans: EU net imports of virtual land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Soybeans TotalSource: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 11. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 11/19Potential productivity growth in EU agricultureand its impact on land useClosing the so-called “attainable yield gap” (acc. to Hendijk et al., 2009):• Attainable yield: yield that can be realized with existing technologies at prevailing prices.• Attainable yield gap: difference between actual and attainable yield.• Drivers of change: more sufficient application of labor and machinery, introduction of modern phytosanitary methods and crop rotations, knowledge transfers• Yield effects, e. g., assuming attainable yield gap is closed by one third: - wheat: 16.1 percent, - sugar beets: 8.7 percent, - oilseeds: 26.5 percent. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 12. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 12/19Potential productivity growth in EU agricultureand its impact on land useChanges of EU trade in virtual land by commodity (in million hectares) 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 Wheat Corn Other cereals Imports of land Rice Soybeans decline by about Palm Oilseed rape 18 million hectares. Other oilseeds Coffee and cocoa Tea and tobacco Less imports, e.g., Fruit Vegetables and potatoes in corn & oilseeds. Pulses Sugar crops Cotton More exports, e.g., Sum in wheatSource: Own calculations. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 13. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 13/19Potential productivity growth in EU agricultureand its impact on land useChanges of EU trade in virtual land by region (in million hectares) 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 North America Land use in South America South America Asia does not profitNorth Africa and the Near East too much. Sub-Sahara-Africa Europa (excl. EU) This would partly CIS change if higher Oceania production in the Rest of the world EU would replace Sum soy in animal feed.Source: Own calculations. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 14. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 14/19Potential productivity growth in EU agricultureand its impact on land useWhat does this have to do with environmental responsibility?• Currently and in the „mid-term‟ future: agricultural demand will increase faster than agricultural supply.• I.e., growth in agricultural production has to speed up.• This can be achieved by using more land and/or producing more on land.• It adds pressure on global land as most productive soils are already used.• Already now, land use changes are a main driver of GHG emissions.• In addition, sensitive ecosystems may be endangered in terms of biodiversity and other environmental parameters.• Hence, productivity growth is a very meaningful way out of the dilemma to produce more food, feed, fuel, and fiber and to protect the environment. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 15. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 15/19Potential productivity growth in EU agricultureand its impact on land useThe „golden‟ or „responsibility‟ triangle of productivity growth in agriculture Increasing food supply Productivity growth in agriculture Increasing Increasing environmental climate benefits protectionSource: Own figure. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 16. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 16/19Conclusions: The policy and research perspectiveSummary on main findings:• EU is a leading net importer in both agricultural commodities and virtually traded agricultural land.• Increasing EU production and productivity growth might be able to significantly reduce net imports and pressure on the environment.• Investing in productivity of crops for which the EU is relatively more competitive than the ROW may act to increase land use efficiency.• But, obviously, the EU is lagging behind in agricultural productivity growth due to a number of reasons. The question is: What to do? Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 17. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 17/19Conclusions: The policy and research perspectivePolicy contributions:• It is time to rediscover the neglected issue productivity in policy making!• A re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand is necessary (e.g., environmental policies, bio-energy policies, regulations).• Policy should create a stable and reliable environment for future investments in agriculture enabling farmers to use modern technologies.• Policy makers need to re-focus R&D funding: volume and priorities.• EU responsibility for global developments (e.g., indirect land use changes) has to take into account by the CAP more than at present. Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 18. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 18/19Conclusions: The policy and research perspective(Selected) research contributions:• With respect to land use: visualize impacts of changes in supply and demand on land use changes and associated issues.• This should include the assessment of developments in production structures (e.g. protein production) and consumption (e.g. meat demand).• With respect to future productivity growth: improved breeding activities and agronomic practices.• By doing so, a more systemic view seems necessary.• Finally, awareness that agricultural research is socially highly profitable (economic and environmental profitability!) needs to be strengthened . Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –
  • 19. Toward more efficient land useHow agricultural productivity growth maycontribute to environmental responsibility 19/19Thank you for your attention. Dr. Steffen Noleppa agripol – network for policy advice GbR Schivelbeiner Str. 21, 10439 Berlin (Germany) noleppa@agripol.de www.agripol.net Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –