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Risk Management - From an Adventure to a Venture... Princess Elisabeth Antarctica

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Risk Management - From an Adventure to a Venture... Princess Elisabeth Antarctica

Risk Management - From an Adventure to a Venture... Princess Elisabeth Antarctica

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  • 1. From an Adventure to a Venture...Princess Elisabeth Antarctica FERMA Risk Management Seminar Versailles, France - 23 October 2012
  • 2. HAAKON VII SEA WEDDELL SEA AMERY ICE SHELF RONNE ICE SHELFBELLINGSHAUSEN SEA DAVIS SEA AMUNDSEN SEA ROSS ICE SHELF MAWSON SEA ROSS SEA DUMONT DURVILLE SEA S O U T H E R N O C E A N
  • 3. Overcoming ChallengesUnprecedented - NGO leading project for a national stationFinancial challenges: 16M€ (private sector) + 6M€ (public)Technical challenges: prototype development from existing technologiesLogistic challenges: no existing infrastructures in AntarcticaBuilding partner networks (tech, logistics, financial, best practice)Foresee future management strategyContinuous evolution towards Zero Emissions
  • 4. Princess Elisabeth & IPY
  • 5. FirstZero Emission station
  • 6. The Challenges Offloadingthe material on sea ice Offloading the material A non stop working Extreme weather conditions Travelling through hazardous terrain with crevassesExtreme weather conditions
  • 7. Innovating towards Zero EmissionsMaterial choice: the skin Wall thickness: 53cm 8 layers (inside to outside): Felt Vapor barrier Massive wood (lamellate) Polystyrene (40 cm graphite-polystyrene) Massive wood EPDM Expanded foam Stainless steel
  • 8. Energy production Control & Supply Variable DemandLimited production capacity Balance available energy & cumulated request Energy request Energy production prioritization Dynamic Control & Supply Variable Demand Limited production capacity Balance available energy & cumulated request Energy request Dynamic prioritization Backup Generator Priority 1 Backup Generator Priority 1 security PLC Water Treatment Unit security PLC Water Treatment Unit Priority 2 Programmable Wind turbines Logic Controller Priority 2 Snow Melter Unit Programmable Wind turbines Logic Controller Snow Melter Unit station operations station operations Ventilation Unit Ventilation Unit Priority 3 Priority 3 science Solar thermal science Solar thermal Priority 4 Priority 4 daily life daily life Solar panels Priority 5 Solar panels Backup Generator Battery storage Priority 5 entertainment Backup Generator Battery storage entertainment
  • 9. Renewable Energies:Batteries as buffer
  • 10. Life inside the Station
  • 11. www.antarcticstation.org
  • 12. Polar Regions &Climate Change
  • 13. What We know about Temperature
  • 14. What We Know About CO2 Concentration CO2 annual mean data 2011 391.57 ppm Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
  • 15. Climate Archive, Earth Observation 390 ppm 10 000 years: neolithic revolution 500 000 years: mastery of fire
  • 16. EPICA Ice CoreProxy Temperatures & CO2 390 ppmv Temperature °Cppmv CO2 2010 Sources: Jouzel, J., et al. 2007. and Lüthi, D., et al.. 2008
  • 17. 8 Jul 2012 Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA 12 Jul 2012
  • 18. Climate Tipping Points A climate tipping point occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state.Climate Tipping Points (Allianz 2011) Drought, Ice Melting, Changing Oceans, Dying Forests, ChangingEcosystems Ice melting: Arctic Sea Ice, Continental Ice Caps, Greenland IceSheet, Permafrost, West Antarctic Ice SheetArctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North (Lloyd’s 2012)Climate Protection and Adaptation to Global Warming (Munich Re)
  • 19. Main Interactions between Thresholds Melting of Greenland ice-sheets Reduction of warming around Greenland Large Changes in freshwater input ice-sheets Melting of GreenlandCooling of north-east Reduction of warming ocean circulation around Greenland tropical Pacific Large Changes in freshwater input Sea-level rise Changes inCooling of north-east ocean circulation atmospheric tropical Pacific destabilising the Amazon Changes in in Changes in Antarctic ice-sheet Sea-level rise water supply dieback Changes destabilising the Shift of atmospheric Amazon water cycle saltwater gradient Changes in Antarctic ice-sheet water supply dieback Changes in El Niño Shift of Changes in El Niño Heat to water cycle saltwater gradient atmospheric Southern Ocean Changes in Heat to atmospheric Southern Ocean moisture supply moisture supply Drying over Drying over Amazoniaia Amazoniaia Warming of Ross Disintegration of West Warming of Ross Disintegration of and Amundsen Seas West Antarctic ice-sheet Sketch of the main interactions and Amundsen Seas Antarctic ice-sheet (in green) between potential Sketch of the main interactions thresholds (in blue)3. (in green) between potential thresholds (in blue)3. INTERACTIONS Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, Walker Institute, Tyndallunderstand that many Institute for Climate Change. (2010). Climate scientists now Centre and Grantham Tropical Pacific 3 Adapted from expert consultationINTERACTIONS AVOID Flyer: Risks of dangerous climate change. dangerous climate changes are potentially • El Niño4 in the Tropical Pacific has a study: Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R and Schellnhuber linked (see schematic). profound effect on the climate of the HJ. 2009: Imprecise probabilityClimate scientists now understand that many over very large Pacific These links, which can act Tropical surrounding region and widespread impacts 3 Adapted from expert consultatio assessment of tipping points inpotentially dangerous climate changes are distances, have the potential to greatly around the world. study: Kriegler PROCEEDINGSHeld the climate system. E, Hall JW, increase the impacts resulting fromEl Niño in the Tropical Pacific has a • just one 4 OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF H, DawsonTHEand Schellnhuber R UNITED STATESlinked (see schematic). • El Niño affects rainfall patterns in the SCIENCES OF type of dangerous event. However,profound effect on the climate of the the HJ.AMERICA. Volume: 106, Issue: OF 2009: Imprecise probability Tropics. Changes in El Niño could changeThese links, which can act strength of the links cannot yet be reliably over very large surrounding the supply of moisture to the Amazon, region and widespread impacts assessment of tipping points in 13, Pages: 5041-5046. quantified. the climate system. PROCEEDING
  • 20. Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Global Sea-level Rise, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-sea-level-rise
  • 21. Source: www.ice2sea.eu
  • 22. Adaptation?
  • 23. Adaptation to Climate ChangeEUEuropean Climate Change ProgrammeClimate Adaptation PlatformEuropean Environment Agency EEAUrban Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (2012)UKClimate Change Risk Assessment (Jan 2012)National Adaptation Programme (2013)and many more National Adaptation Strategies...
  • 24. Understanding the Poles......to Build a Sustainable Future
  • 25. Thank You!