FORUM 2013 Global Risk Mapping -  The Zurich Risk Room
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FORUM 2013 Global Risk Mapping - The Zurich Risk Room

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    FORUM 2013 Global Risk Mapping -  The Zurich Risk Room FORUM 2013 Global Risk Mapping - The Zurich Risk Room Presentation Transcript

    • Global risk mapping The Zurich Risk Room Approach Daniel M. Radulovic Proposition Manager for the Zurich Risk Room Zurich Insurance Group, Zurich, Switzerland •8/10/2013 •1
    • The Zurich Risk Room Methodology Zurich’s proprietary country risk assessment tool Combines vast amounts of data Monthly data, primarily from public sources, for over 150 countries, covering 80+ individual risks, across 6 broad categories: − Business − Economic − Geopolitical − Environmental − Social − Technology With a risk correlation matrix Used to illustrate the complex interconnectivity between different types of risks and model forward looking scenarios Provides an intuitive visualization of the complex risk modeling data 8/10/2013 2
    • Holistic country risk mapping requires a tailored approach: A study of 3 Eastern European countries: Albania, Czech Republic, and Hungary Example #1: Country Credit Worthiness 1 1 • Typical measure, used by many corporations as a proxy for overall country risk • Primary focus: • Countries’ ability/ willingness to repay sovereign debt • Downside: • Limited in scope • Could overlook important risk exposures relevant to particular industries or individual businesses 8/10/2013 3
    • Holistic country risk mapping requires a tailored approach: A study of 3 Eastern European countries: Albania, Czech Republic, and Hungary Example #2: Focus on Food and Beverage industry 2 1 2 • Included additional risks such as: • Exposure to rising food prices, Exposure to rising oil prices, Burden of government regulation, Paying taxes, Employing workers, etc. 8/10/2013 4
    • Holistic country risk mapping requires a tailored approach: A study of 3 Eastern European countries: Albania, Czech Republic, and Hungary Example #3: Focus on Manufacturing Industry 3 1 2 3 8/10/2013 5
    • To learn more, download the free Zurich Risk Room mobile apps: A simplified, demo version of the full app Contains 5 predefined scenarios on: − Macroeconomic Imbalances − Political Volatility − Nat. Cat. and Disaster Management − Supply Chain Disruption − Demographic Shifts/Longevity Risk Provides the ability to model changes in individual risks to see how they impact other interconnected risks Available free of charge to the general public 8/10/2013 6