PETER HARPER
CENTRE FOR ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGY
FARMING FUTURES, NORTH YORKSHIRE 25 NOVEMBER 2010
TREES AND LIVESTOCK:
CHAN...
THIS IS
WHY IT’S
A
SERIOUS
MATTER
NOVEMBER 17, 2010:NOVEMBER 17, 2010:
David Cameron yesterday warned that aDavid Cameron yesterday warned that a
fragmented...
THE YAWNI NG CHASM
POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM
FURI OUS ACTI VI TY
ZCB
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BRANCH-
POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY?
COMING SOON TO A PLANET NEAR YOU
SUCCESSFUL
MITIGATION
INCREASINGLY
D...
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE
APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
Emissions
envelope
Net-negative processes
Low/Zero Carbon supp...
IT IS AN INVESTMENT, NOT A COST
Tomorrow
£196 million
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
Emissions
envelope
Net-negative processes
Low/Zero Carbon supp...
NEW PRESSURES ON LAND USE
Arising from higher carbon prices
• Bioenergy crops
• Low-emission raw materials
• Sequestration...
Speculative plot of responses to
increasing carbon price
£10/t £50/t £500/t
RUMINANTS
NON-RUMINANTS
ENERGY
CROPS
SEQUESTRA...
‘DEFAULT MEAT
PRODUCTION’
Elferink, E.V., S. Nonhebel and H.C. Moll (2008), J. Cleaner Production 16 (12) 1227-1233.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: GHG EMISSIONS, LAND REQUIREMENT, OUTPUT.
ADJUSTED FOR NUTRITIONAL VALUE AFTER MAILLOT 2009
0
2000
4...
COMPARISON OF EXISTING AND ZCB2030 SCENARIO EMISSIONS
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
PRODUCTS...
FOOD QUALITY: ‘DOUBLE FOOD PYRAMID’
PROPOSED BY BARILLA CENTER
http://www.barillacfn.com/images/download/positionpaper_bar...
ENERGY SILAGE
MISCANTHUS
SRC SRF
UNALLOCATED
GRAZING
IN SITU SEQUESTRATION
FROM EXISTING FOIREST
LONG-TERM
REFORESTATION
T...
ENERGY SILAGE
MISCANTHUS
SRC SRF
UNALLOCATED
GRAZING
IN SITU SEQUESTRATION
FROM EXISTING FOIREST
LONG-TERM
REFORESTATION
T...
1235 1513 461 2150 318 20800
UNALLOCATED
LONG-TERM REFORESTATION
IN SITU FROM EXISTING
WOOD PRODUCTS FROM EXISTING
SRF
SRC...
Read, D.J., Freer-Smith, P.H., Morison, J.I.L., Hanley, N., West, C.C.
and Snowdon, P. (eds). (2009) Combating climate cha...
POTENTIAL SEQUESTRATION VALUES
FOR TREES IN ‘WINDOW’ 2015-2075
CO2e/ha/y
Arable 20
Rotational grassland 20
Improved lowlan...
Wakelyn’s, Suffolk
SILVOPASTORAL SYSTEMS
• Sycamore trees planted at close spacing in farmSycamore trees planted at close spacing in farm
woo...
Rural livelihoods
• This would of course be a fundamental shift in UK
agriculture and land use. Shocking?
• But present da...
THE END
THE END
DOWNLOAD THE WHOLE REPORT
FREE FROM
www.zerocarbonbritain.com
ORGANIC?
• Follows calls from Soil Association report for
– A larger organic sector
– Improved practice in the non-organic...
Biomass
• Biomass crops replace only grazing grassland
– An inefficient but essential process replaces an
inefficient and ...
BIOMASS ENERGY
HOW TO DO IT PROPERLY
• Using crops for energy is not efficient and should be
minimised
• Using them for se...
Table 3: Land use in the UK
UK Total
(Million
hectares)
Principal existing
uses
Principal Scenario uses
Total crops 4.87 A...
Balance of GHG emissions from
land use processes – at present
AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE:
BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVEEM...
Summary of our results
ZCB LAND-USE SCENARIO: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
EMISSIONS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NEGA...
Trees and Livestock: Changing Land-use in Zero Carbon Britain - Peter Harper (Centre for Alternative Technology)
Trees and Livestock: Changing Land-use in Zero Carbon Britain - Peter Harper (Centre for Alternative Technology)
Trees and Livestock: Changing Land-use in Zero Carbon Britain - Peter Harper (Centre for Alternative Technology)
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Trees and Livestock: Changing Land-use in Zero Carbon Britain - Peter Harper (Centre for Alternative Technology)

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  • [Design] Need new logo
  • The size shows historical carbon emissions debt. How can we point a finger at the developing south and demand they decarbonise when we are responsible for the problem, and arent being ambitious ourselves?
  • This very complicated diagram is a Sankey diagram for our energy supply and demand. The thickness of the line indicates the no. of terawatt hours per source (left) to its end use (right).
    Note that the loses (bottom) are minimal
  • Trees and Livestock: Changing Land-use in Zero Carbon Britain - Peter Harper (Centre for Alternative Technology)

    1. 1. PETER HARPER CENTRE FOR ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGY FARMING FUTURES, NORTH YORKSHIRE 25 NOVEMBER 2010 TREES AND LIVESTOCK: CHANGING LAND-USE IN
    2. 2. THIS IS WHY IT’S A SERIOUS MATTER
    3. 3. NOVEMBER 17, 2010:NOVEMBER 17, 2010: David Cameron yesterday warned that aDavid Cameron yesterday warned that a fragmented national and regionalfragmented national and regional approach to tackling climate change willapproach to tackling climate change will be unable to sufficiently curb greenhousebe unable to sufficiently curb greenhouse gas emissions, insisting that a bindinggas emissions, insisting that a binding global deal remains critical.global deal remains critical.
    4. 4. THE YAWNI NG CHASM POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM FURI OUS ACTI VI TY ZCB
    5. 5. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BRANCH- POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY? COMING SOON TO A PLANET NEAR YOU SUCCESSFUL MITIGATION INCREASINGLY DESPERATE ADAPTATIONS + ‘PEAK OIL’
    6. 6. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand Emissions envelope Net-negative processes Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    7. 7. IT IS AN INVESTMENT, NOT A COST
    8. 8. Tomorrow £196 million
    9. 9. LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH Rationalisation of demand Emissions envelope Net-negative processes Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
    10. 10. NEW PRESSURES ON LAND USE Arising from higher carbon prices • Bioenergy crops • Low-emission raw materials • Sequestration crops • Low-emission food • Stock, especially ruminants • Certain management practices • Excessive N-inputs • Conversion of grass to arable Would attract credits Would attract penalties or require offsets
    11. 11. Speculative plot of responses to increasing carbon price £10/t £50/t £500/t RUMINANTS NON-RUMINANTS ENERGY CROPS SEQUESTRATION CROPS FAIRLIE’S “DEFAULT LIVESTOCK” LEVEL
    12. 12. ‘DEFAULT MEAT PRODUCTION’ Elferink, E.V., S. Nonhebel and H.C. Moll (2008), J. Cleaner Production 16 (12) 1227-1233.
    13. 13. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: GHG EMISSIONS, LAND REQUIREMENT, OUTPUT. ADJUSTED FOR NUTRITIONAL VALUE AFTER MAILLOT 2009 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 O TH ER C RO PSO ATS PE AS AN D BEANS FR U IT BE ET VE G ETABLESBA RLEY PO TATOES RAPE PR O TECTED C ROPS W H EAT HO RS ES etc EG GS PIG S SH EEP PO ULTRY BE EF M ILK FOOD PRODUCT GROUPS, IN TWO CLASSES EMISSIONS,KT,LAND,KHAX4,PRODUCTKT Nutrionally-adjusted product Land used GHG emissions PROTEIN RATIO 55% LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 45% CROP PRODUCTS
    14. 14. COMPARISON OF EXISTING AND ZCB2030 SCENARIO EMISSIONS -30000 -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 PRODUCTS IN THREE CLASSES, RANKED BY EMISSIONS GHGEMISSIONS,KTCO2e/year Scenario emissions existing emissions PROTEIN RATIO 34% LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 66% CROP PRODUCTS
    15. 15. FOOD QUALITY: ‘DOUBLE FOOD PYRAMID’ PROPOSED BY BARILLA CENTER http://www.barillacfn.com/images/download/positionpaper_barillacfn_double-pyramid.pdf
    16. 16. ENERGY SILAGE MISCANTHUS SRC SRF UNALLOCATED GRAZING IN SITU SEQUESTRATION FROM EXISTING FOIREST LONG-TERM REFORESTATION TREE CROPS FEED CROPS URBAN LIVESTOCK INTENSIVE HORTICULTURE PROTECTED CROPS HEMP FIELD CROPS WOOD PRODUCTS FROM EXISTING FOREST AREA ALLOCATION OF FUNCTIONS IN ZCB2030 SCENARIO
    17. 17. ENERGY SILAGE MISCANTHUS SRC SRF UNALLOCATED GRAZING IN SITU SEQUESTRATION FROM EXISTING FOIREST LONG-TERM REFORESTATION TREE CROPS/ AGROFORESTRY FEED CROPS URBAN LIVESTOCK INTENSIVE HORTICULTURE PROTECTED CROPS HEMP FIELD CROPS WOOD PRODUCTS FROM EXISTING FOREST
    18. 18. 1235 1513 461 2150 318 20800 UNALLOCATED LONG-TERM REFORESTATION IN SITU FROM EXISTING WOOD PRODUCTS FROM EXISTING SRF SRC MISCANTHUS HEMP ENERGY SILAGE DIRECT CROPS FEED CROPS 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 U R B A N O T H E R A R A B LE A R A B LE FO R FE E D R O TA T IO N A L LO W LA N D IM P R O V E D U N IM P R O V E D H ILL O T H E R U P LA N D P E A T M O O R E X IS T IN G W O O D LA N D O T H E R F A R M LA N D UNALLOCATED LONG-TERM REFORESTATION IN SITU FROM EXISTING WOOD PRODUCTS FROM EXISTING SRF SRC MISCANTHUS HEMP ENERGY SILAGE TREE CROPS DIRECT CROPS FEED CROPS GRAZING
    19. 19. Read, D.J., Freer-Smith, P.H., Morison, J.I.L., Hanley, N., West, C.C. and Snowdon, P. (eds). (2009) Combating climate change – a role for UK forests. An assessment of the potential of the UK’s trees and woodlands to mitigate and adapt to climate change, the synthesis report, Forestry Commission, The Stationery Office, Edinburgh.
    20. 20. POTENTIAL SEQUESTRATION VALUES FOR TREES IN ‘WINDOW’ 2015-2075 CO2e/ha/y Arable 20 Rotational grassland 20 Improved lowland grassland 16 Unimproved lowland grassland 10 Upland sites 7 Peatland 5
    21. 21. Wakelyn’s, Suffolk
    22. 22. SILVOPASTORAL SYSTEMS • Sycamore trees planted at close spacing in farmSycamore trees planted at close spacing in farm woodland or clumped arrangements were significantlywoodland or clumped arrangements were significantly larger in diameter than widely spaced sycamore atlarger in diameter than widely spaced sycamore at 100 and 400 stems/ha.100 and 400 stems/ha. • The planting of trees in a clumped pattern appears toThe planting of trees in a clumped pattern appears to combine silvicultural benefits to tree growth withcombine silvicultural benefits to tree growth with agricultural benefits of maintaining livestockagricultural benefits of maintaining livestock productionproduction • Livestock productivity was unaffected by the presenceLivestock productivity was unaffected by the presence of trees during the six-year establishment phaseof trees during the six-year establishment phase • Alder in silvopastoral systems in N. Wales fixedAlder in silvopastoral systems in N. Wales fixed nitrogen at 30kg/ha/ynitrogen at 30kg/ha/y
    23. 23. Rural livelihoods • This would of course be a fundamental shift in UK agriculture and land use. Shocking? • But present day agriculture is only 0.6% of the GDP, and is probably actually a net cost: people ask, “why bother?” • In a decarbonising world the land use sector would have a MUCH greater significance in the UK economy • High carbon prices would favour labour over equipment and materials; farming could become better tuned to local circumstance; and more creative • There would be a very large number of associated rural jobs, and a revival of rural settlements • ‘Carbon Farming’ would be an opportunity to re-invent UK agriculture
    24. 24. THE END THE END DOWNLOAD THE WHOLE REPORT FREE FROM www.zerocarbonbritain.com
    25. 25. ORGANIC? • Follows calls from Soil Association report for – A larger organic sector – Improved practice in the non-organic sector – More mixed farming • Switch to biomass crops requires less fertiliser and pesticides • Large inputs of organic matter to soils • Livestock sector shifts from quantity to quality • Still provision for about 10% mineral nitrogen
    26. 26. Biomass • Biomass crops replace only grazing grassland – An inefficient but essential process replaces an inefficient and dispensable process • Driven largely by carbon prices • The biomass crops are perennials generating cellulose, not protein – Lower disturbance – Lower fertiliser requirement – Higher habitat/biodiversity value • A new paradigm for farming and land use invites an explosion of new mixed approaches – Especially with respect to livestock
    27. 27. BIOMASS ENERGY HOW TO DO IT PROPERLY • Using crops for energy is not efficient and should be minimised • Using them for sequestration is a much better and indispensable function • Arable/annual crops should not be used for energy at all, except for ‘waste materials’ • Biomass energy does however play a significant role in the scenario – Some surface transport needs – Balancing the electricity system – ‘Grounding’ hydrogen – Aviation • We found no way to avoid it, given our chosen principles
    28. 28. Table 3: Land use in the UK UK Total (Million hectares) Principal existing uses Principal Scenario uses Total crops 4.87 Arable crops Arable crops, N-fixing legumes Of which is used for feeding livestock 2.10 Livestock feed Mostly direct consumption, livestock feed, hemp, N- fixing legumes Fallow & set-aside 0.20 As above Total grassland including rough grazing 11.20 Of which is temporary leys (grass under 5 yrs old) 1.14 Milk cattle Hemp, milk cattle, energy silage, clover Of which is improved permanent lowland grassland 4.49 Milk & beef cattle Energy silage, miscanthus, milk & beef cattle Of which is unimproved permanent lowland grassland 0.92 Beef cattle, sheep Miscanthus, SRC, beef, sheep Of which is upland hill farms 1.25 Beef cattle, sheep SRC, SRF, reforestation, sheep Of which is upland peat moorland 1.36 Sheep Sheep, minor reforestation Of which is other upland grassland 2.04 Sheep, beef cattle SRF, reforestation, sheep Woodland 3.24 Wood products Wood products, sequestration management Of which is farm woodland & hedgerows 0.50 Wood products Wood products, seasonal grazing All other agricultural land 0.50 Intensive livestock units Arable, hemp, intensive livestock units, fish farms, new woodland, protected crops Urban land 3.28 Of which is potentially agriculturally productive land in urban areas 1.00 Derelict, recreation, under-used Intensive horticulture, intensive livestock units, woodlands, fish farms, protected crops Total land 23.09
    29. 29. Balance of GHG emissions from land use processes – at present AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVEEMISSIONS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEEMISSIONS,MILLIONS OFTONNESCO2E Grazing livestock Non-grazing livestock Crop products Imports Negative emissions
    30. 30. Summary of our results ZCB LAND-USE SCENARIO: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EMISSIONS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 NEGATIVE POSITIVE POSITIVEANDNEGATIVEEMISSIONS,MTCO2E/Y Livestock products" Crop products Imports Negative emissions
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