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Assessing and addressing the impact of
warmer autumns on the success
of grain cooling
Dean Cook
Science Strategy team
Grain Cooling
• Grain is ventilated at low-volume rate
of 10m3
/h/t
• Cooling must be –
– fast enough to prevent insects
b...
As a rule of thumb…….
• Cool to below 15°C within 2 weeks
to prevent the saw-toothed grain
beetle breeding;
• to below 10°...
Cooling targets for UK stores
using low volume aeration at 10
m3
/tonne/hr
Cooling starts on 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct
Lates...
Has cooling become more
difficult? – climate change
• Climate change will bring;
 Earlier, hotter harvests
 Shorter mild...
Comparison of mean monthly
temperatures from 1961 to the
present day.
0
5
10
15
20
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D
1990
1991
19...
Minimum temperatures for the
period immediately after harvest.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
J A S O
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1...
Adaptation to climate change –
demonstration project
Objectives –
“How well are we doing?”
“How can we do things better?”
...
Part 1. Efficient control – using differential
thermostats
Differential thermostats
Temperature
probe inserted into
grain
Temperature
sensor at
ambient
Feedback to fan
control
Tempe...
Advantages of differential
thermostats; trials work, East
Lincolnshire 1991.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
Weeks stor...
Trial detail – differential
thermostats vs manual control.
Focusing on 2 sites -
Site 1 -
• Farm site, Darlington
• 700t b...
Darlington trial setup
4.5 – 6 m spacing between pedestals
Small
pedestal/fan to
deal with corner
Door
Leading edge
of hea...
Site 1 – Results; Temperatures at
Darlington site and progress against
cooling targets
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
7-Sep 17-Sep...
Site 1 – Results; Cumulative fan
hours run
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
15-Sep 25-Sep 05-Oct 15-Oct 25-Oct 04-Nov 14-N...
Comparison of insect control
costs
PROCESS COST FUNCTIONS
Fumigation 150-200p/t - Disinfests
Bulk insecticide admixture 50...
Trial detail – differential
thermostats vs manual control.
Focusing on 2 sites -
Site 2 -
• Co-operative store, Cambridges...
Site 2 – Results; Temperatures at
Cambridgeshire site and progress
against cooling targets
Site 2 – Results; Daily spot te...
Part 2. Monitoring exercise – how well are
growers doing?
Monitoring exercise overview
iButtons
monitoring
ambient and
fan
temperature
Results – monitoring 12 sites
across the country
Location Air flow
P=Pedestal
U=Under-floor
Differential Target
(o
C)
Targ...
Five day running mean of ambient
temperatures at monitoring
locations
Oxfordshire – why stop
cooling?
Leicestershire – only cooled on
2 occasions
Lincolnshire – the importance
of the correct differential
Part 3. What about the future?
David Bruce Consulting Ltd
Weather data – UKCP09
Weather Generator of UKCP09 hourly weather
Assumptions
• Time into future, in 30yr windows. 2020-204...
Cooling parameters
• Strategy - diffstat control set at 4o
C
• Sensor at 0.5m depth
• 4m bed, 14.5% mc, 25o
C, 10 m3
/h.t,...
Summary of climate change
results
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Control
(historic)
90% likely 50% likely
Climate change scenario
Tempera...
Conclusions
• Not all storekeepers are hitting their cooling
targets
• Need to continue to improve operator practice
• Dif...
We would like to thank…….
Participating stores and in particular, Stuart Vernon
(Grower, Country Durham), Andrew Ruff and ...
Thank you for listening!
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Assessing and addressing the impact of warmer autumns on the success of grain cooling - Dean Cook (FERA)

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Transcript of "Assessing and addressing the impact of warmer autumns on the success of grain cooling - Dean Cook (FERA)"

  1. 1. Assessing and addressing the impact of warmer autumns on the success of grain cooling Dean Cook Science Strategy team
  2. 2. Grain Cooling • Grain is ventilated at low-volume rate of 10m3 /h/t • Cooling must be – – fast enough to prevent insects breeding; and temperature as low as to cause death – Part of an integrated grain storage strategy in conjunction with drying, hygiene measures and monitoring
  3. 3. As a rule of thumb……. • Cool to below 15°C within 2 weeks to prevent the saw-toothed grain beetle breeding; • to below 10°C within a further 2 months to prevent the grain weevil breeding; • to below 5°C by winter (xmas) to prevent mites breeding and kill insects.
  4. 4. Cooling targets for UK stores using low volume aeration at 10 m3 /tonne/hr Cooling starts on 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct Latest 15°C 16 Jul 17 Aug 12 Sep 8 Oct date to 10°C 29 Sep 9 Oct 14 Oct 9 Nov cool to 5°C 8 Dec 8 Dec 9 Dec 1 Jan (After – Armitage et al., 1991)
  5. 5. Has cooling become more difficult? – climate change • Climate change will bring;  Earlier, hotter harvests  Shorter milder winters  Extreme weather events • Issues for cooling?  High harvested temperatures  Fewer “windows” of cold night time air available  Challenge to meet targets; speed and temperature achieved
  6. 6. Comparison of mean monthly temperatures from 1961 to the present day. 0 5 10 15 20 25 J F M A M J J A S O N D 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1961/90 (Source: Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992 – updated by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Berkshire, UK.)
  7. 7. Minimum temperatures for the period immediately after harvest. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 J A S O 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Target 1. Target 2. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 J A S O 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Target 1. Target 2. Target 1. Target 2. (Source: Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992 – updated by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Berkshire, UK.)
  8. 8. Adaptation to climate change – demonstration project Objectives – “How well are we doing?” “How can we do things better?” • Measure on-farm cooling profiles in grain stores on 15 farms distributed throughout the UK from harvest 2007 • To compare the performance of automated differential fan control with manual control at 3 sites using identical paired stores • To illustrate potential problems and “best practice”
  9. 9. Part 1. Efficient control – using differential thermostats
  10. 10. Differential thermostats Temperature probe inserted into grain Temperature sensor at ambient Feedback to fan control Temperature probe inserted into grain Temperature sensor at ambient Feedback to fan control
  11. 11. Advantages of differential thermostats; trials work, East Lincolnshire 1991. 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Weeks storage Temperature°C Ambient Automated store Manually controlled store SEPTEMBER DECEMBER [Auto-control using a 4°C differential in conjunction with time clock (20.00-07.30, night time only) Vs manual control.]
  12. 12. Trial detail – differential thermostats vs manual control. Focusing on 2 sites - Site 1 - • Farm site, Darlington • 700t bulk of wheat at 14.5%mc • Cooled with pedestals at recommended spacing etc. • Bulk divided into virtual halves half bulk controlled by 2°C differential half bulk controlled by manual operation of fans
  13. 13. Darlington trial setup 4.5 – 6 m spacing between pedestals Small pedestal/fan to deal with corner Door Leading edge of heap PC running STORECHECK Single fan between 2 – manual control Single fan between 2 – auto control = pedestals = sensors °C 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 3 4 5 6 Zone 1Zone 2 4.5 – 6 m spacing between pedestals Small pedestal/fan to deal with corner Door Leading edge of heap PC running STORECHECK Single fan between 2 – manual control Single fan between 2 – auto control = pedestals = sensors °C 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 3 4 5 6 Zone 1Zone 2
  14. 14. Site 1 – Results; Temperatures at Darlington site and progress against cooling targets 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 7-Sep 17-Sep 27-Sep 7-Oct 17-Oct 27-Oct 6-Nov 16-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec 16-Dec Date Temperature°C Auto (mean) Manual (mean) Ambient (minimum) 15°C Target due 18-Sep 5°C Target due 15-Dec 10°C Target due 20-Oct
  15. 15. Site 1 – Results; Cumulative fan hours run 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 15-Sep 25-Sep 05-Oct 15-Oct 25-Oct 04-Nov 14-Nov 24-Nov 04-Dec 14-Dec Date No.ofhoursblown Manual Auto Up to 40% energy saving!
  16. 16. Comparison of insect control costs PROCESS COST FUNCTIONS Fumigation 150-200p/t - Disinfests Bulk insecticide admixture 50-75p/t - Prevents and disinfests Cooling (manually) 50 p/t - Prevents mc Cooling (automatic) 29 p/t movement - Prevents infestation - Preserves quality - Disinfests over a season
  17. 17. Trial detail – differential thermostats vs manual control. Focusing on 2 sites - Site 2 - • Co-operative store, Cambridgeshire • Two 6000t silos of wheat at 14-15%mc • Cooled with upward aeration system One silo controlled by 4°C differential One silo controlled by manual operation of fans
  18. 18. Site 2 – Results; Temperatures at Cambridgeshire site and progress against cooling targets Site 2 – Results; Daily spot temperatures (8am) at Cambridge site -5 0 5 10 15 20 05-Oct 20-Oct 04-Nov 19-Nov 04-Dec 19-Dec 03-Jan Date Temperature°C Ambient auto bin (D2) manual bin (D4) 1 2 Hours run 1. (2-Nov) Auto; 98 Manual; 83 2. (4-Dec) Auto; 142 Manual; 155 3. (7-Jan) Auto; 156 Manual; 236 3 10°C Target due 14-Oct 5°C Target due 9-Dec Site 2 – Results; Daily spot temperatures (8am) at Cambridge site -5 0 5 10 15 20 05-Oct 20-Oct 04-Nov 19-Nov 04-Dec 19-Dec 03-Jan Date Temperature°C Ambient auto bin (D2) manual bin (D4) 1 2 Hours run 1. (2-Nov) Auto; 98 Manual; 83 2. (4-Dec) Auto; 142 Manual; 155 3. (7-Jan) Auto; 156 Manual; 236 3 10°C Target due 14-Oct 5°C Target due 9-Dec
  19. 19. Part 2. Monitoring exercise – how well are growers doing?
  20. 20. Monitoring exercise overview iButtons monitoring ambient and fan temperature
  21. 21. Results – monitoring 12 sites across the country Location Air flow P=Pedestal U=Under-floor Differential Target (o C) Target met Best performing Berwickshire ~10m3 /t/h P No 15 10 5 On time 1 week early 1 week early Worst performing Suffolk ~10m3 /t/h U No 15 10 5 10 weeks late Not met Not met • Only 1 site achieved the 15°C target on time • 3 sites achieved the 10°C target on time • 3 sites achieved the target of 5°C on time • 11 stores cooled to 10°C • Only 4 stores cooled to 5°C and below
  22. 22. Five day running mean of ambient temperatures at monitoring locations
  23. 23. Oxfordshire – why stop cooling?
  24. 24. Leicestershire – only cooled on 2 occasions
  25. 25. Lincolnshire – the importance of the correct differential
  26. 26. Part 3. What about the future? David Bruce Consulting Ltd
  27. 27. Weather data – UKCP09 Weather Generator of UKCP09 hourly weather Assumptions • Time into future, in 30yr windows. 2020-2049 • Emissions scenario. High • ‘Percentile’ is probability of change being as large as embodied in the data: – 90% (‘very likely’) – 50% (‘as likely as not’) • Control ‘historical’ data. 1960-1989 • Location: Odiham, Hants
  28. 28. Cooling parameters • Strategy - diffstat control set at 4o C • Sensor at 0.5m depth • 4m bed, 14.5% mc, 25o C, 10 m3 /h.t, start 20 Aug • Target temperature 5o C by end December • Also cooled to end February with the same target of 5o C
  29. 29. Summary of climate change results 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Control (historic) 90% likely 50% likely Climate change scenario Temperature,o C Target temperature for cooling 88% 61% 38%
  30. 30. Conclusions • Not all storekeepers are hitting their cooling targets • Need to continue to improve operator practice • Differential thermostats can help you achieve cooling targets and can save up to 40% energy-use and running costs • Future climate change may impact on cooling targets but……will still be able to control insect pests
  31. 31. We would like to thank……. Participating stores and in particular, Stuart Vernon (Grower, Country Durham), Andrew Ruff and Philip Darke (Camgrain) who took part in the differential control trials. The work was funded by – Warwick HRI's Defra-funded Innovation network for adapting agriculture to climate change. Defra through the Sustainable Arable LINK programme
  32. 32. Thank you for listening!
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