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Energy Environment Economics

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Dramatic changes in the Energy Market. We list all those that will compete: including our own

Dramatic changes in the Energy Market. We list all those that will compete: including our own

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    Energy Environment Economics Energy Environment Economics Presentation Transcript

    • By Dr. Faisal Tajir
      When and Where do you think lies the milestone when the ever more affordable alternative energy sources will be more affordable than the ever more expensive fossil fuels.
      Wake up to be advised that such a day was folded into history while you were seeking profit elsewhere.
      Energy Rescue
      Allah does not punish you for a crime you have not committed.
      Stop torturing yourself in the dark.
      Stop burning your money.
      Spending Energy is Fun.
      Spend it!
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    • Energy
      sources and economics
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    • Seminar Objectives
      Appreciate current state of the energy market in Pakistan.
      Pointing to more cost effective sources of energy in the market.
      Identify upcoming technologies and opportunities.
      Discuss various energy sources separately.
      Identifying responsibilities of the consumer.
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    • Prevalent Pattern
      86.2% from Fossil Fuels that are only to get more and more expensive
      Electric supply (grid) offering an ever decreasing uptime
      $6.7billion of foreign exchange being lost in importing oil – each year
      Strategic dependency on imported fuel and shipping lanes
      The psychological impact of knowing one is damaging the environment for his/her children
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      Global Fossil Fuel Cost
      Increase in six years
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    • Consequences
      Decreasing Demand Growth Rate!!!
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    • Action
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    • Reaction
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    • Can Things Really Be This Bad?
      Have We Checked Everything?
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      No.
      Something Better.
      Much, Much Better.
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    • Worried about the Environment?
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    • Shopping!
      It is ALL a matter of
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    • Appreciating your requirement
      1W=8.766kWh/yr.
      Your electricity bill lets you know how much money you pay for how many kWhs.
      Your demand fluctuates, you can calculate your maximum possible demand by summing the power rating on all appliances.
      Before arranging for your electricity, you want to eliminate pointless wastages such as loose connections and magnet attracting wiring.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Typical Diurnal Variation in a Household’s Consumption
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    • In the cooler localities...
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    • Annual Variation
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    • Solar Options
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    • Geographical Availability
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    • Assembly Types
      Solar Panels
      Electricity generation anywhere under the sun
      Sunlight Intensification
      Detour the cost of the panels, if there is room for the heliostat
      Most cost effective means of heating
      Hybrid Installations – typically harnessing wind AND solar energy
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Solar 101
      At the smallest level, you would rather buy solar cells rather than panels. This substantially reduces cost and gives you options such as making flexible panels: upon your clothes.
      Instead of crying about there being no sunlight at night, consider how comfortable life would be if your mobile phone recharged automatically. Appreciate limitations, yet search for applications.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Solar 102
      Solar water heaters are already quite economically available in Pakistan and elsewhere. Don’t try to compete with the economies of scale of mass production – just buy the complete product!
      If your choice of electricity for your premises is solar.
      Double and triple check the geographical distribution of solar energy.
      Hire an engineer for the acrylic Fresnel lens and heliostat rather than bringing in truck loads of panels.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • If this lens has to get large, it also has to be an un-oriented wind turbine!
      Steam at pressure pretty good at cooking!
      Steam / with any dust – driving any turbine
      DC electricity
      Liquid water / solution (at pressure)
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Solar 103
      Larger installations should be hybrid – harnessing Solar AND Wind/Mist.
      Automate tasks such as filling your rooftop water tank to happen when the sun is at work.
      The high temperatures that you can achieve at the focus of the lens mean that you can set up a cottage industry – for example extracting oxidized aluminum from soil.
      This is a global revolution. Even if you can’t save yourself, someone else will!
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    • Solar 104
      Let’s assume you consume 2000kWhs (ie units) of electricity a month, and you install a 2400W solar electricity supply on your roof.
      In Karachi you will save an average of 596 kWhs (units) on your electricity bill.
      Your solar electricity supply cost you Rs.48,000/- (plus human resource)
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Solar 105
      You saved Rs. 7748/ a month in your electricity bill: 16.14%/month.
      Ask your bank what it would have given you on Rs. 48,000/-
      Should all consumers reduce their demand by 29.8% ‐ the country will have excess electricity and no load shedding.
      Excess supply will force prices down
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • WIND Options
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Geographical Availability
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    • Recent Improvements
      More wind at higher altitudes, modern wind turbines are kites rather than towers.
      An Aziz Hussein in TownshipLahore developed turbine blades optimized for all wind speeds.
      A funnel type structure around the turbine can adjust the wind speed across the blades to give a consistent generation.
      NEPRA has taken over the “risk factor” of the wind energy industry.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Wind Speed Control
      Ability to increase and decrease the radius of the funnel kind structure means ability to increase / decrease wind speed across the turbine!
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Shape Changing
      Turbines
      From Aziz Hussein
      Township Lahore
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Kites
      KiteGen has begun selling around 20MW onto the Italian grid.
      Dozens of other teams elsewhere reaching for the energy from the sky.
      Electricity has become more affordable.
      Electricity has become relatively more affordable.
      This is the essence of this address: advise all sleeping beauties of this stud that is yawning in their vicinity.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • The American attempt
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Pakistani kites are exclusively being developed as missile silos and for other military applications
      As we have better energy sources
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Ocean Current
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Geographical Distribution
      Kites, only heavier, tapping continuous or tidal currents.
      Even more affordable than wind energy.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Ocean Thermal
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    • Interesting Aspects
      Carnot cycle between ocean surface and ocean bed.
      Cycles secondary product – distilled water, cooling / air conditioning.
      Most aggressive air conditioning technology known. Cool largest coastal city, while generating both electricity AND fresh water.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Temperature Difference between surface and Ocean bed
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    • Geo Thermal
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    • Aspects
      Requires water (fresh, dirty, brackish, or sea) as raw material.
      Carnot cycle between earth’s surface and underlying hot crust.
      By-product steam/hot water/distilled water.
      Very cost effective and environment friendly source of energy and fresh water.
      The default climate control tool when you want to warm up a locality.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • By Dr. Faisal Tajir
      Are You Ready
      For The Max?
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    • mist
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Introduction
      Achieve temperature difference by spraying mist in air.
      Run a Carnot cycle between this temperature difference.
      Hybridize with wind energy.
      Use directly to cool / pre-cool.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Low Pressure Region
      Fans
      Turbines
      Mist
      Dynamo
      Mist Energy Schematic
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Suggested Prototype (for Karachi)
      5gpm / 150 psi mist / average net 14.475kW
      Carnot efficiency and Karachi average weather conditions (from BBC weather) used for calculations.
      Minimum generation 3.89kW at midnight to 0600 hrs in August.
      Maximum generation 30.4kW at 1200 hrs to 1800 hrs in December.
      Cooling: a consistent 712kW, or a 203 ton AC.
      Consumes water: 316g/s.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Remaining Specifications
      Radius 4.76m. Length 15m.
      Estimated cost, Rs. 300,000/- (~Rs. 20/W or Rs.0.32/kWh) plus human resource
      Doesn’t get better than this…
      Energy Consuming Air Conditioners (203 ton) cost way more.
      Compare with our grid’s distribution cost of Rs 0.50/kWh
      Taps Mist AND Wind Energy.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • / wind hybrid
      MIST / SOLAR
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Minimizing storage in a grid free small enterprise
      Mist Turbine peak production comes with an approximately π/2 phase lag as compared to Solar.
      Distributing your investment in Solar/Wind and Mist/Wind you should need only 6 hours of storage.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Artificial Rain
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Recent Developments
      A certain industrial process produces reduced silica: as a waste product, with a grain structure that leaves it as good as a flare: only that this burned silicon then flies up to bring down clouds!
      Rain can be started but not stopped: threat of floods, use will remain limited to hilly areas where there is no drainage issue.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Artificial Rain
      Technology not economically advisable in the absence of over head clouds or in the presence of strong winds.
      Considered the strongest climate control technology: drop the clouds every sunset and you will cool down your locality, drop them only at dawn and you will heat up your vicinity. The more cloud cover you have, the more you control your climate.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Reduced Boiling Point
      As a means of tapping evaporation
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    • Concept
      Reduce the pressure above water, it will boil at a much lower temperature.
      The water vapor introduced by the boiling can leave the system via a filter: that only allows monatomic molecules to pass through.
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    • Instead of utilizing the low temperature of the water, we can have the vapor passing across turbines, giving mechanical energy.
      Valve to fill water and remove air
      The pressure above this water is greatly reduced. It boils at a much reduced temperature: often lower than the ambient temperature
      Monatomic tensile membranes to let out the vapor. Argon in air (10mbar) leaks in from here.
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    • Best Solution (Electricity / Air Conditioning) for the Apartment.
      For the entire year, can provide electricity to an apartment that may not harness solar or wind energy: nor has the space for a Mist Turbine. 18 hrs of storage will however be required.
      Does not eliminate but does reduce air conditioning requirements: 34C down to 27C.
      Unlike Mist Energy, does not inflict any too low temperatures in the winters. This superiority could prove decisive.
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    • Air conditioning
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Air Conditioning as an Energy Source!
      Ambient Temperature changes diurnally.
      Insulation means that our buildings tend to maintain the average inside them.
      This means that every day we may run a Carnot cycle between the air in the room and outside: while improving conditions in the room!
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Air Conditioning as an Energy Source!
      In the winter, we can run such a cycle in the day, generating a small amount of electricity, and heating up our cold dwelling.
      In the summer, we can run such a cycle every night, generating a small amount of electricity, and beating the heat in our rooms.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Air Conditioning as an Energy Source!
      The amount of energy from such an installation is going to be small, yet hybridization with other energy sources always results in the most cost effective air conditioning AND lower cost for one’s electricity.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Breeder reactors
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • When the Sun is Not Enough
      Enormous growth potential of this family of technologies needs to be appreciated.
      It maintains a monopoly at submarines.
      We cannot afford to suffice on fission based detonation.
      We cannot afford to trust the government that failed in Thar with such a task.
      The private technocrat will have to come forward, develop: and then deploy the design and technology.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Climate
      Change and Control
      191
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
    • Climate Chronology
      The well established ice ages and interglacials offer a horrific tale of our planets climate.
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    • Global Warming
      Scientists the world over are advising that it is already too late to bring down carbon emissions etc and that the planet is going to go on warming up for the next 500 years even if carbon emissions immediately drop to zero.
      Receding glaciers are now accepted as part of everyday life.
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    • The threat of another Ice Age
      An increasing number of scientists believe that this planet is not capable of housing the kind of temperatures that are being extrapolated and that this excess heat will be released in a big storm sending the planet into its next Ice Age.
      This theory is a bit new, and hence requires some degree of discussion.
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    • The Role of Water
      Global warming will indeed result in more water (vapor) in the atmosphere.
      H2O is our planets primary greenhouse gas.
      The diffusivity (ability to mix / dissolve) of H2O falls exponentially with temperature.
      The uneven heat capacity and absorption spectrum of the atmosphere translates to active weather.
      Stronger winds will mean more dust eroding and being blown up into the atmosphere.
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    • The Role of Wind
      More dust in the atmosphere will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface.
      Recall that this variation (water’s diffusivity vs temperature) is exponential.
      The dust in the atmosphere suddenly takes over, the temperature of the atmosphere falls for a global rain storm to start.
      With the vapor out of the atmosphere before the dust, an ice age starts.
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    • What we know
      We know that shorter wavelengths are getting through, as the ozone layer recedes.
      We know that sunlight in general is decreasing because of more dust in the atmosphere.
      We know that the planet is heating up, yet the higher the temperature the more unstable it is.
      The temperature that is stable is what we call an ice age.
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    • Summary
      Temperature Increase
      Vapor Pressure Increase
      Temperature Increase
      Diffusivity Decrease
      Weather / Wind Activity Increase
      Dust Increase
      Temperature Reduction
      Precipitation
      Vapor Pressure Collapse (Before Dust Decrease)
      Temperature Collapse (Very Stable Climate)
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    • We take charge of the climate
      So what do we do?
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    • Climate Control
      We know very well already that a list of energy sources will alter the climate in one way or another.
      By air conditioning our cities and our plantations, we prepare for any major climatic disaster as well.
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    • Conclusion
      Mist for energy and Permanganate for water are indispensible. Both of these will cool the locality.
      Of the alternatives, solar (lens) and artificial rain are the cost effective and grid free options.
      Once artificial rain is deployed (in conjunction with Mist), the only remaining environmental issue is the ozone layer.
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    • GOVERNMENT
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Government Level Recommendations
      Ocean bed water to air condition coastal cities: fresh water and electricity as by products.
      Geo Thermal Power Stations in permafrost areas: melt the glaciers and permafrost.
      Mist and Rain also as climate control tools: electricity as by product.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Government Level Recommendations
      Hydroelectric dams controlling the floods and cashing in on the increased rains.
      Kites for military, law enforcement, and communication.
      Waste to Energy plants.
      Breeder Reactors in cooler areas.
      When and if even more energy is required: raise more kites.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • business
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • To the Investor
      Intensified sunlight is a distinct form of energy, like heat and electricity, that is often best used directly. Do NOT miss out on…
      Pakistan can best generate around 1.5-2TW of Mist/Wind Energy. Solar will determine the price of electricity in our foreseeable future: 160TW capacity.
      Do not miss out on the cooling from OTEC and Mist or the heating from Solar and GeoThermal.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • citizen
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • To the Citizen
      Ambient heat and dirty / saline water are not things to complain about.
      No one not consuming solar energy is in any position to complain about load shedding or the economy.
      China is consuming ~360GW and the USA ~30TW: you are consuming around 20GW: have to consume >160TW, you have a lot of work to do: stop checking out the girls!
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Know thy Enemy
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Know thy Enemy
      Pakistan maintains the ability to sterilize India while taking sustainable damage. Please advise if you have problems with this claim.
      Pakistan also maintains the ability to sterilize the United States, while being sterilized in response. Please advise if you have problems with this claim.
      The ease with which a government employee may be tipped in Pakistan remains the enemies weapon of choice: ask NADRA about CNIC# 17201-1557832-9.
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • By Dr. Faisal Tajir
      Know thy Enemy
      • NADRA and our Police serve their objective of sabotaging our design and development projects. Each plays a critical role in neutralizing “the threat” from a Pakistani scientist.
      • PEC / HEC serve to misguide you as to who is literate and who is not. Ask Dr. FidaYounasKhattak why Dr. Faisal Tajir walked out of GIKI: after four years: without any accreditation.
      • AEDB / KESC / WAPDA try to convince you that every possible effort is being made. Ask AEDB when it was first advised about Mist Energy.
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      Short Course on Keeping Pakistan from its Energy
      • Identify habitual scientists.
      • Steal their CNICs.
      • Tip NADRA into simply not listening when they ask for a copy.
      • Tip the police into going deaf when they complain.
      • Tip any lawyers they hire.
      • Send infantry in civil clothes to break up any prototypes: and beat up whomever tried to make them.
      • You find anyone guilty of prototyping, focus on his source of income and his habitat.
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      Short Course on Energizing Pakistan
      • Go to one of the Jihad fronts: learn how to survive in the face of hostility.
      • Prefer working on technologies that you know the developed world will be little interested in.
      • The enemy will isolate you: use it to give time to your mission.
      • The enemy will sabotage your resources: make your project even more economical.
      • Hold on to your ego, nothing else.
      • Because…
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      It is only
      YOU
      That needs electricity, energy, or Pakistan
    • By Dr. Faisal Tajir
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    • Don’t Worry About Me
      I am
      PAKISTAN
      By Dr. Faisal Tajir
      220
    • Nuclear War
      The kind of war Man is yet to fight
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    • Aspects
      Overwhelming firepower.
      Delivery and intercepting delivery vehicle: yet what if the latter fails?
      Built from money and technology.
      Results into a “cold war”: each adversary sabotaging the other’s technology and economy.
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    • Pakistan
      Created by civilians.
      For civilians.
      Defended by civilians.
      Ruled by civilians.
      Run by civilians.
      Full of civilians.
      Civilian grows beard, becomes more of the enemy’s nightmare than our nukes.
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    • Fighting the Nuclear War
      Grow a beard.
      Tell everyone “your most secret secrets”:
      you know how to make a bomb (only won’t tell ‘cause it’s classified)
      You are on your way to Amrica: for establishing peace.
      Very strictly obey the law: so that the authorities don’t get a chance to interview / interrogate you.
      Send nonsense messages across the internet to whomever in Amrica!
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    • Your Contribution
      You now have half a dozen CIA agents, at the other end of the planet, closely keeping their eyes on not a “terrorist”.
      You just added (substantially as well) to the cost of their war!
      You qualified as a mujahid in the eyes of Allah: by inflicting such a cost upon the enemy. JazakallahKher!
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    • To the Citizen
      Appreciate how many jobs and business opportunities are to show up: choose your stride in time.
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    • Permanent Losses of Pakistan
      Some technologies will deliver sufficient benefit to the developer even if used by an arch enemy.
      Some technologies will only be made available when and if anyone pays: first.
      Some technologies will only be shared with friends.
      Some technologies will NOT be shared.
      NADRA and the Police have cost Pakistan the permanganate cycle. Someone else will have to develop it now, and until then: we will look upon brackish water as a problem!!!
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    • Assessing These Proposals
      If you want the opinion of any HEC / PEC recognized really cool and learned chap on this document: do not forget to ask him for his proposals as well. After all, isn’t he the one who should have written this document in the first place?
      Consider the amount of money to be invested in each plan, and the returns that you are confident of. Is cooling Karachi’s air with 4oC water really going to be difficult?
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    • Word of Caution!
      These sciences are evolving at high pace, and too many suppliers are offering obsolete technology. Make sure you conduct a survey thorough enough, yet rest assured that what you employ will be redundant before it starts serving you!
      Remember to ask how many kWhs are expected from the investment per year.
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    • Dr. Faisal Tajir
      Coming Seminars on:
      Water: sources and economics.
      Space: how & why.
      Terra-Farming: Earth, Venus, and Mars.
      Anti Strategic Delivery Vehicles.
      FTL SETI.
      Highest IQ Level of all SAARC and all OIC
      Ph.D. Electronic Engineering
      Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering
      In excess of 300 inventions
      CNIC# 17201-1557832-9
      +92-313-2088531
      ftajir@gmail.com
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