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Energy

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Dramatic changes in the Energy Market.

Dramatic changes in the Energy Market.

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  • 1. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir When and Where do you think lies the milestone when the ever more affordable alternative energy sources will be more affordable than the ever more expensive fossil fuels. Wake up to be advised that such a day was folded into history while you were seeking profit elsewhere. Spending Energy is Fun. Spend it! Allah does not punish you for a crime you have not committed. Stop torturing yourself in the dark. Stop burning your money. 1
  • 2. Energysources and economics By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 2
  • 3. Seminar Objectives • Appreciate current state of the energy market in Pakistan. • Identifying responsibilities of the consumer. • Pointing to more cost effective sources of energy in the market. • Identify upcoming technologies and opportunities. • Discuss various energy sources separately. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 3
  • 4. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 4
  • 5. Prevalent Pattern • 86.2% from Fossil Fuels that are only to get more and more expensive • Electric supply (grid) offering an ever decreasing uptime • $6.7billion of foreign exchange being lost in importing oil – each year • Strategic dependency on imported fuel and shipping lanes • The psychological impact of knowing one is damaging the environment for his/her children By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 5
  • 6. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 6
  • 7. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 7
  • 8. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 8
  • 9. 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% Consequences • Decreasing Demand Growth Rate!!! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 9
  • 10. Action By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 10
  • 11. Reaction By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 11
  • 12. Invitation Mr. Bostan By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 12
  • 13. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 13
  • 14. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 14
  • 15. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 15
  • 16. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 16
  • 17. Appreciating your requirement • 1W=8.766kWh/yr. • Your electricity bill lets you know how much money you pay for how many kWhs. • Your demand fluctuates, you can calculate your maximum possible demand by summing the power rating on all appliances. • Before arranging for your electricity, you want to eliminate pointless wastages such as loose connections and magnet attracting wiring. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 17
  • 18. Typical Diurnal Variation in a Household’s Consumption By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 18
  • 19. In the cooler localities... By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 19
  • 20. Annual Variation By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 20
  • 21. Energy Sources Discussed • Prevalent sources • Solar • Wind • Ocean Current • Ocean Thermal • Geo Thermal • Mist • Artificial Rain • Reduced Boiling Point • Nuclear Energy By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 21
  • 22. SOLAR OPTIONS By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 22
  • 23. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 23
  • 24. Geographical Availability By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 24
  • 25. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 25
  • 26. Assembly Types • Solar Panels – Electricity generation anywhere under the sun • Sunlight Intensification – Detour the cost of the panels, if there is room for the heliostat – Most cost effective means of heating • Hybrid Installations – typically harnessing wind AND solar energy By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 26
  • 27. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 27
  • 28. Solar 101 • At the smallest level, you would rather buy solar cells rather than panels. This substantially reduces cost and gives you options such as making flexible panels: upon your clothes. • Instead of crying about there being no sunlight at night, consider how comfortable life would be if your mobile phone recharged automatically. Appreciate limitations, yet search for applications. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 28
  • 29. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 29
  • 30. Solar 102 • Solar water heaters are already quite economically available in Pakistan and elsewhere. Don’t try to compete with the economies of scale of mass production – just buy the complete product! • If your choice of electricity for your premises is solar. – Double and triple check the geographical distribution of solar energy. – Hire an engineer for the acrylic Fresnel lens and heliostat rather than bringing in truck loads of panels. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 30
  • 31. Liquid water / solution (at pressure) Steam / with any dust – driving any turbine DC electricity Steam at pressure pretty good at cooking! If this lens has to get large, it also has to be an un- oriented wind turbine! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 31
  • 32. Solar 103 • Larger installations should be hybrid – harnessing Solar AND Wind/Mist. • Automate tasks such as filling your rooftop water tank to happen when the sun is at work. • The high temperatures that you can achieve at the focus of the lens mean that you can set up a cottage industry – for example extracting oxidized aluminum from soil. • This is a global revolution. Even if you can’t save yourself, someone else will! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 32
  • 33. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average Sunlight in Karachi: hours per day: source BBC weather By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 33
  • 34. Solar 104 • Let’s assume you consume 2000kWhs (ie units) of electricity a month, and you install a 2400W solar electricity supply on your roof. • In Karachi you will save an average of 596 kWhs (units) on your electricity bill. • Your solar electricity supply cost you Rs.48,000/- (plus human resource) By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 34
  • 35. Solar 105 • You saved Rs. 7748/ a month in your electricity bill: 16.14%/month. • Ask your bank what it would have given you on Rs. 48,000/- • Should all consumers reduce their demand by 29.8% ‐ the country will have excess electricity and no load shedding. • Excess supply will force prices down By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 35
  • 36. WIND OPTIONS By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 36
  • 37. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 37
  • 38. Geographical Availability By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 38
  • 39. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 39
  • 40. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 40
  • 41. Recent Improvements • More wind at higher altitudes, modern wind turbines are kites rather than towers. • An Aziz Hussein in Township Lahore developed turbine blades optimized for all wind speeds. • A funnel type structure around the turbine can adjust the wind speed across the blades to give a consistent generation. • NEPRA has taken over the “risk factor” of the wind energy industry. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 41
  • 42. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 42
  • 43. Wind Speed Control Ability to increase and decrease the radius of the funnel kind structure means ability to increase / decrease wind speed across the turbine! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 43
  • 44. From Aziz Hussein Township Lahore By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 44
  • 45. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 45
  • 46. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 46
  • 47. Kites • KiteGen has begun selling around 20MW onto the Italian grid. • Dozens of other teams elsewhere reaching for the energy from the sky. • Electricity has become more affordable. • Electricity has become relatively more affordable. • This is the essence of this address: advise all sleeping beauties of this stud that is yawning in their vicinity. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 47
  • 48. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 48
  • 49. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 49
  • 50. The American attempt By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 50
  • 51. Pakistani kites are exclusively being developed as missile silos and for other military applications As we have better energy sourcesBy Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 51
  • 52. OCEAN CURRENT By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 52
  • 53. Geographical Distribution • Kites, only heavier, tapping continuous or tidal currents. • Even more affordable than wind energy. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 53
  • 54. OCEAN THERMAL By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 54
  • 55. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 55
  • 56. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 56
  • 57. Interesting Aspects • Carnot cycle between ocean surface and ocean bed. • Cycles secondary product – distilled water, cooling / air conditioning. • Most aggressive air conditioning technology known. Cool largest coastal city, while generating both electricity AND fresh water. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 57
  • 58. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 58
  • 59. Temperature Difference between surface and Ocean bed By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 59
  • 60. GEO THERMAL By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 60
  • 61. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 61
  • 62. Aspects • Requires water (fresh, dirty, brackish, or sea) as raw material. • Carnot cycle between earth’s surface and underlying hot crust. • By-product steam/hot water/distilled water. • Very cost effective and environment friendly source of energy and fresh water. • The default climate control tool when you want to warm up a locality. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 62
  • 63. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 63
  • 64. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 64
  • 65. MIST By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 65
  • 66. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 66
  • 67. Introduction • Achieve temperature difference by spraying mist in air. • Run a Carnot cycle between this temperature difference. • Hybridize with wind energy. • Use directly to cool / pre-cool. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 67
  • 68. Mist Low Pressure RegionTurbines Fans Dynamo Mist Energy Schematic By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 68
  • 69. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 69
  • 70. Suggested Prototype (for Karachi) • 5gpm / 150 psi mist / average net 14.475kW • Carnot efficiency and Karachi average weather conditions (from BBC weather) used for calculations. • Minimum generation 3.89kW at midnight to 0600 hrs in August. • Maximum generation 30.4kW at 1200 hrs to 1800 hrs in December. • Cooling: a consistent 712kW, or a 203 ton AC. • Consumes water: 316g/s. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 70
  • 71. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec kW Power Output 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 71
  • 72. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 72
  • 73. Remaining Specifications • Radius 4.76m. Length 15m. • Estimated cost, Rs. 300,000/- (~Rs. 20/W or Rs.0.32/kWh) plus human resource • Doesn’t get better than this… • Energy Consuming Air Conditioners (203 ton) cost way more. • Compare with our grid’s distribution cost of Rs 0.50/kWh • Taps Mist AND Wind Energy. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 73
  • 74. / WIND HYBRID Mist / Solar By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 74
  • 75. Minimizing storage in a grid free small enterprise • Mist Turbine peak production comes with an approximately π/2 phase lag as compared to Solar. • Distributing your investment in Solar/Wind and Mist/Wind you should need only 6 hours of storage. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 75
  • 76. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 kW Daily Variation Rs. 300,000 Mist/Wind Turbine Rs. 300,000 Solar Electric Supply Sum 76
  • 77. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec kW Annual Variation Mist Solar Total 77
  • 78. ARTIFICIAL RAIN By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 78
  • 79. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 79
  • 80. Recent Developments • A certain industrial process produces reduced silica: as a waste product, with a grain structure that leaves it as good as a flare: only that this burned silicon then flies up to bring down clouds! • Rain can be started but not stopped: threat of floods, use will remain limited to hilly areas where there is no drainage issue. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 80
  • 81. Artificial Rain • Technology not economically advisable in the absence of over head clouds or in the presence of strong winds. • Considered the strongest climate control technology: drop the clouds every sunset and you will cool down your locality, drop them only at dawn and you will heat up your vicinity. The more cloud cover you have, the more you control your climate. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 81
  • 82. Reduced Boiling Point As a means of tapping evaporation 82By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 83. Concept • Reduce the pressure above water, it will boil at a much lower temperature. • The water vapor introduced by the boiling can leave the system via a filter: that only allows monatomic molecules to pass through. 83By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 84. Valve to fill water and remove air Monatomic tensile membranes to let out the vapor. Argon in air (10mbar) leaks in from here. The pressure above this water is greatly reduced. It boils at a much reduced temperature: often lower than the ambient temperature Instead of utilizing the low temperature of the water, we can have the vapor passing across turbines, giving mechanical energy. 84By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 85. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average Vapor Pressure in Karachi (mbar) 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 85By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 86. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Reduced Boiling Point Karachi Celsius 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 86By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 87. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ambient Temperature Karachi Celsius Average Min Max 87By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 88. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Maintainable Room Temperature in Karachi by RBP: Celsius 88By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 89. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 89 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec oC RBP Min Average Max
  • 90. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ambient Temperature minus RBP: Celsius 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 90By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 91. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Pressure difference available: if temperature drop is compromised (mbar) 0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 91By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 92. Best Solution (Electricity / Air Conditioning) for the Apartment. • For the entire year, can provide electricity to an apartment that may not harness solar or wind energy: nor has the space for a Mist Turbine. 18 hrs of storage will however be required. • Does not eliminate but does reduce air conditioning requirements: 34C down to 27C. • Unlike Mist Energy, does not inflict any too low temperatures in the winters. This superiority could prove decisive. 92By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir
  • 93. AIR CONDITIONING By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 93
  • 94. Air Conditioning as an Energy Source! • Ambient Temperature changes diurnally. • Insulation means that our buildings tend to maintain the average inside them. • This means that every day we may run a Carnot cycle between the air in the room and outside: while improving conditions in the room! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 94
  • 95. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec oC Monthly Average Temperatures for Karachi as per BBC weather Average Min Max By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 95
  • 96. Air Conditioning as an Energy Source! • In the winter, we can run such a cycle in the day, generating a small amount of electricity, and heating up our cold dwelling. • In the summer, we can run such a cycle every night, generating a small amount of electricity, and beating the heat in our rooms. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 96
  • 97. Air Conditioning as an Energy Source! • A little mist turbine in the area will solve the problem of some nights also being too hot. • The amount of energy from such an installation is going to be small, yet hybridization with other energy sources always results in the most cost effective air conditioning AND lower cost for one’s electricity. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 97
  • 98. BREEDER REACTORS By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 98
  • 99. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 99
  • 100. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 100
  • 101. When the Sun is Not Enough • Enormous growth potential of this family of technologies needs to be appreciated. • We cannot afford to suffice on fission based detonation. • We cannot afford to trust the government that failed in Thar with such a task. • The private technocrat will have to come forward, develop: and then deploy the design and technology. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 101
  • 102. GOVERNMENT By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 102
  • 103. Government Level Recommendations • Ocean bed water to air condition coastal cities: fresh water and electricity as by products. • Geo Thermal Power Stations in permafrost areas: melt the glaciers and permafrost. • Mist and Rain also as climate control tools: electricity as by product. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 103
  • 104. Government Level Recommendations • Hydroelectric dams controlling the floods and cashing in on the increased rains. • Kites for military, law enforcement, and communication. • Waste to Energy plants. • Breeder Reactors in cooler areas. • When and if even more energy is required: raise more kites. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 104
  • 105. BUSINESS By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 105
  • 106. To the Investor • Intensified sunlight is a distinct form of energy, like heat and electricity, that is often best used directly. • Pakistan can best generate around 1.5-2TW of Mist/Wind Energy. Solar will determine the price of electricity in our foreseeable future: 160TW capacity. • Do not miss out on the cooling from OTEC and Mist or the heating from Solar and GeoThermal. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 106
  • 107. CITIZEN By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 107
  • 108. To the Citizen • Ambient heat and dirty / saline water are not things to complain about. • No one not consuming solar energy is in any position to complain about load shedding or the economy. • China is consuming ~360GW and the USA ~30TW: you are consuming around 20GW: have to consume >160TW, you have a lot of work to do: stop checking out the girls! By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 108
  • 109. Know thy Enemy By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 109
  • 110. Know thy Enemy • Pakistan maintains the ability to sterilize India while taking sustainable damage (Prithvi I is India’s only in service strategic delivery vehicle). • Pakistan also maintains the ability to sterilize the United States, while being sterilized in response. • The ease with which a government employee may be tipped in Pakistan remains the enemies weapon of choice. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 110
  • 111. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 111
  • 112. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir Know thy Enemy • NADRA and our Police serve their objective of sabotaging our design and development projects. • PEC / HEC serve to misguide you as to who is literate and who is not. • AEDB / KESC / WAPDA try to convince you that every possible effort is being made. • Yes I did just challenge all these entities, what are they going to do? 112
  • 113. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir Short Course on Keeping Pakistan from its Energy • Identify habitual scientists • Steal their CNICs • Tip NADRA into simply not listening when they ask for a copy • Tip the police into going deaf when they complain • Tip any lawyers they hire • Send infantry in civil clothes to break up any prototypes: and beat up whomever tried to make them • You find anyone guilty of prototyping, focus on his source of income and his habitat 113
  • 114. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir Short Course on Energizing Pakistan • Go to one of the Jihad fronts: learn how to survive in the face of hostility • Prefer working on technologies that you know the developed world will be little interested in • The enemy will isolate you: use it to give time to your mission • The enemy will sabotage your resources: make your project even more economical • Hold on to your ego, nothing else • Because… 114
  • 115. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 115
  • 116. • It is only YOUthat needs electricity / energy / Pakistan. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 116
  • 117. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 117
  • 118. Don’t Worry About Me I am By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 118
  • 119. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 119
  • 120. To the Citizen • Appreciate how many jobs and business opportunities are to show up: choose your stride in time. By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 120
  • 121. Dr. Faisal Tajir Coming Seminars on: • Water: sources and economics • Climate Control • Space: how & why • Anti Strategic Delivery Vehicles • Highest IQ Level of all SAARC and all OIC • Ph.D. Electronic Engineering • Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering • In excess of 300 inventions • +92-313-2088531 • ftajir@gmail.com By Mr. Bostan and Dr. Faisal Tajir 121

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