Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global Warming Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and Scenario Development Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science) Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto, Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu, Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE), Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)
Integrated Assessment Models as a platform of the policy and technology assessments
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been developed since 1990s as a powerful tool for this subject. However,
Economic models and technology assessments deal with near future (until 2020) while existing IAMs mainly talk about near 2100.
Economic models and technology assessments mainly analyze country level while existing IAMs mainly aggregate the world into 10-15 regions.
Globalization, civilization, penetration of IT, industrial structure changes etc. are not well discussed in the global environmental context.
Project Phoenix - Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry complex –
Developed by the RITE - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as a part of an “International Research Promotion Funds for the Global Environment”
B: Energy flow model existing research activities in RITE DNE-21 and LDNE-21 Energy demand scenarios should be provided based on the economic and societal story-lines. H: Assessments of regional options CGS, distributed energy systems renewable sources recycling and waste managements G ： Energy demand transportation public and household long-term growth patterns structural changes I: Regional structure change civilization social structure modeling methods C: Assessments of Global climate change simple climate models (MAGICC, BERN) D: Assessments of regional climate change GCM data GIS E ： Assessments of global warming water resource ocean, river and lakes land use food production vegetation etc. J: Biosphere human health impacts on biosphere F: Food supply and demand subjects in 2004 K: Mitigation investment ex-post expenditure ex-ante investment cost-benefit integrated assessments subjects after 2005 L: GHG emission scenario detailed regional emission scenario
GTAP (Purdue Univ.) incorporates more than 60 regions and sectors and is still being expanded.
GTAP is designed to assess the international trade and production impacts of various policy options.
GTAP-EG includes energy flow subsystems.
GTAP provides comprehensive and consistent world economic data base.
In Phoenix Project,
We aim at the assessments of the certain technologies such as energy conversion technologies, carbon capture options, biomass production and utilization, etc.
Dynamic model simulation is also needed.
We impose the bottoming up technology model into the GTAP model simplifying the frame, if necessary.
Conceptual Frame of the Model V=f(K,L,E)-(secondary energy input costs) VA_E=Σ(capital and labor costs of energy conversion technologies )+(others) VA_Epre=Σ(capital and labor costs of primary energy extraction and production costs)+(others) (Total secondary energy supply)=Σ(Conv. Eff.) ＊ (primary energy inputs) Q EC= P e E EC_pre=PpS Q 2 Q 1 Q Output P L ・ L 2 P L ・ L 1 L Y VA_E VA_pre P k ・ K 2 P k ・ K 1 K Value Added EC= P e E C e = P e E c ０ ０ ０ ０ X e2 = P e E 2 Xe 1 = P e E 1 Secondary EC_pre=PpS ０ ０ ｍ p X pe ０ ０ ０ Primary Energy Sectors Q 2 C 2 I 2 ｍ 2 ０ ０ X 22 = Q 2 ・ a 22 X 21 = Q 1 ・ a 21 2 Q 1 C 1 I 1 ｍ 1 ０ ０ X 12 = Q 2 ・ a 12 X 11 = Q 1 ・ a 11 1 Non-energy Sectors Int. Inputs Q C I m Secondary Primary 2 1 Output Con sump Tion Invest ments trade Energy sectors Non-energy sectors Final demand Intermediate Inputs
Basic column-wise constraints Where Pd(i) : price of i-th goods produced by the national industry PI(i) : price of i-th goods in the international market (average price of the world trade basket) PY(i) : average price of i-th goods in the national market Trd(i): international transportation tariff of i-th goods
Model structure Simple energy conversion processes
Energy flow in DNE-21 model: simplified structure will be imposed.
Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 regions Other countries XAP North and Middle African countries NAF Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island countries ANZ Former USSR FSU Turkey and Middle-East countries TME Hungary, Poland and other east European countries EEP Asia NIES countries ASN West and middle European countries WEP India IND Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other south American countries SAM China, Hong kong, Taiwan CHN Brazil BRA Japan JPN Middle American countries MCM South African countries SAF Canada CAN Middle African countries CAF USA USA
Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 non-energy sectors Social services SSR Paper, pulp and printings PPP Business services BSR Food Products FPR Aviation ATP Mining OMN Transportation T_T Other machinery OME Agricultural products AGR Transport equipments TRN Other manufacturing OMF Non- metal materials NMM Textiles, wearing, apparel and leather TWL Non-ferrous metals NFM Construction CNS Chemical industry CRP Wood, Pulp and printing LUM Iron and steel I_S
With carbon emission control policy in developed countries
and without trading of the emission permit
( regional upper limit of carbon emission in the future is equal to that in base year.)
Note: In this simulation study, we do not consider the limit of the amount of the natural and labor capital, the explicit stock of the energy conversion plant, and the end effect of the optimization model.
Data Assumption in this simulation study
Population: SRES-B2 scenario
Discount rate: 5%/Year
Depreciation rate: 5%/Year
Rate of technical progress: 1%/Year (constant in all regions and sectors)
time steps: ΔT=10
Data assumption - fossil fuel potential and costs -
Assumed fossil fuel endowment (WEC,2001)
Linearized cost function based on Rogner (1997) is assumed. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 USA CAN MCM BRA SAM WEP EEP FSU NAF CAF SAF JPN CHN IND ASN TME ANZ XAP Ｅｎｅｒｇｙ Ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓ（ＥＪ） Ｎａｔｕｒａｌ Ｇａｓ Ｃｏａｌ Crude Oil
Extract the key factors Cross Impact (X-I) method deals with 8-10 factors at one stage.
Define four regions including world To reflect the regional conditions (O)OECD (A)Asia (L)ALM (R)ROW (W)World
SRES A1-B2 assumptions Set the key driving forces according to the SRES storylines.
Extracted key events of the global warming factors People value the traditional cultures and customs rather than to accept foreign ones. Valuing traditions 8 Education on the global environmental issues diffuses over the world. Penetration of environmental education 7 Internet become familiar and most people use it. Penetration of internet 6 Long-term investments for more than 30 years become difficult. Difficulty in long term investments 5 The environmental additional costs (e.g. relatively expensive renewable sources and recycling costs) are socially accepted. Social acceptance of environmental costs 4 Nuclear power stations are socially accepted and increase. Expansion of nuclear power stations 3 For the sake of risk-hedging of primary energy supply, regions prefer self-sufficient and diversified energy sources. self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources 2 World economy is covered by the unified global large market. Unification of world market 1 Contents of the event Event Events
Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption) Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption)
Occurrence probabilities and scenarios; Results of X-I method on SRES-A1 assumptions