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  • 1. Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global Warming Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and Scenario Development Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science) Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto, Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu, Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE), Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)
  • 2. Integrated Assessment Models as a platform of the policy and technology assessments
    • Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been developed since 1990s as a powerful tool for this subject. However,
    • Economic models and technology assessments deal with near future (until 2020) while existing IAMs mainly talk about near 2100.
    • Economic models and technology assessments mainly analyze country level while existing IAMs mainly aggregate the world into 10-15 regions.
    • Globalization, civilization, penetration of IT, industrial structure changes etc. are not well discussed in the global environmental context.
  • 3. Project Phoenix - Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry complex –
    • Developed by the RITE - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
    • Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as a part of an “International Research Promotion Funds for the Global Environment”
    • A project for 2002-2006 (five years)
  • 4. Structure of Project Phoenix – three WGs
    • Multi region and sector model GTAP
    • + Easy to connect with GAMS
    • - Dynamics
    • Aggregated energy technologies and sources
    • (Model development WG)
    Energy demand, economic activities, structural changes + Data availability (trade and economic statistics) - Societal structural change (Warming factors WG) Assessments of global warming + Availability on food, water, climate change studies - Uncertainties of global warming damages (Warming impacts WG)
  • 5.
    • A: Economic activities GTAP model
    • multi regional and multi-sectoral
    • - CGE model
    • - static model
    • energy flow and technologies
    • should be integrated
    B: Energy flow model existing research activities in RITE DNE-21 and LDNE-21 Energy demand scenarios should be provided based on the economic and societal story-lines. H: Assessments of regional options CGS, distributed energy systems renewable sources recycling and waste managements G : Energy demand transportation public and household long-term growth patterns structural changes I: Regional structure change civilization social structure modeling methods C: Assessments of Global climate change simple climate models (MAGICC, BERN) D: Assessments of regional climate change GCM data GIS E : Assessments of global warming water resource ocean, river and lakes land use food production vegetation etc. J: Biosphere human health impacts on biosphere F: Food supply and demand subjects in 2004 K: Mitigation investment ex-post expenditure ex-ante investment cost-benefit integrated assessments subjects after 2005 L: GHG emission scenario detailed regional emission scenario
  • 6. Activities in Model Development WG
    • GTAP (Purdue Univ.) incorporates more than 60 regions and sectors and is still being expanded.
    • GTAP is designed to assess the international trade and production impacts of various policy options.
    • GTAP-EG includes energy flow subsystems.
    • GTAP provides comprehensive and consistent world economic data base.
    • In Phoenix Project,
    • We aim at the assessments of the certain technologies such as energy conversion technologies, carbon capture options, biomass production and utilization, etc.
    • Dynamic model simulation is also needed.
    • We impose the bottoming up technology model into the GTAP model simplifying the frame, if necessary.
  • 7. Conceptual Frame of the Model V=f(K,L,E)-(secondary energy input costs) VA_E=Σ(capital and labor costs of energy conversion technologies )+(others) VA_Epre=Σ(capital and labor costs of primary energy extraction and production costs)+(others) (Total secondary energy supply)=Σ(Conv. Eff.) * (primary energy inputs) Q EC= P e E EC_pre=PpS Q 2 Q 1 Q   Output P L ・ L 2 P L ・ L 1 L   Y     VA_E VA_pre P k ・ K 2 P k ・ K 1 K   Value Added EC= P e E C e = P e E c  0 0    0 0 X e2 = P e E 2 Xe 1 = P e E 1 Secondary EC_pre=PpS  0  0 m p    X pe    0  0  0 Primary Energy Sectors Q 2 C 2 I 2 m 2 0 0 X 22 = Q 2 ・ a 22 X 21 = Q 1 ・ a 21 2 Q 1 C 1 I 1 m 1 0 0 X 12 = Q 2 ・ a 12 X 11 = Q 1 ・ a 11 1 Non-energy Sectors Int. Inputs Q C I m Secondary Primary 2 1 Output Con sump Tion Invest ments trade Energy sectors Non-energy sectors   Final demand Intermediate Inputs
  • 8. Basic row-wise constraints
  • 9. Basic column-wise constraints Where Pd(i) : price of i-th goods produced by the national industry PI(i) : price of i-th goods in the international market (average price of the world trade basket) PY(i) : average price of i-th goods in the national market Trd(i): international transportation tariff of i-th goods
  • 10. Integration of energy flow
  • 11. Model structure Simple energy conversion processes
  • 12. Energy flow in DNE-21 model: simplified structure will be imposed.
  • 13. Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 regions Other countries XAP North and Middle African countries NAF Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island countries ANZ Former USSR FSU Turkey and Middle-East countries TME Hungary, Poland and other east European countries EEP Asia NIES countries ASN West and middle European countries WEP India IND Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other south American countries SAM China, Hong kong, Taiwan CHN Brazil BRA Japan JPN Middle American countries MCM South African countries SAF Canada CAN Middle African countries CAF USA USA
  • 14. Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 non-energy sectors Social services SSR Paper, pulp and printings PPP Business services BSR Food Products FPR Aviation ATP Mining OMN Transportation T_T Other machinery OME Agricultural products AGR Transport equipments TRN Other manufacturing OMF Non- metal materials NMM Textiles, wearing, apparel and leather TWL Non-ferrous metals NFM Construction CNS Chemical industry CRP Wood, Pulp and printing LUM Iron and steel I_S
  • 15. Outline of developed model
    • Integration of the top-down economic model and bottom-up energy system model
    • Division the world into 18 regions
    • Division the non-energy industrial sector into 18 sectors
    • Model time span: Up to the middle of the 21 st century for the climate policies
    • Intertemporal nonlinear optimization model (maximization of the discounted total consumption utilities)
    • Assessment of the comprehensive optimal strategies for the global warming mitigation considering the inter-temporal and regional structure changes of the industry
  • 16. Simulation cases
    • Case1(BAU case)
    • Without carbon emission control policy
    • Case2   ( to check the model consistency )
    • With carbon emission control policy in developed countries
    • and without trading of the emission permit
    • ( regional upper limit of carbon emission in the future is equal to that in base year.)
    Note: In this simulation study, we do not consider the limit of the amount of the natural and labor capital, the explicit stock of the energy conversion plant, and the end effect of the optimization model.
    • Data Assumption in this simulation study
    • Population: SRES-B2 scenario
    • Discount rate: 5%/Year
    • Depreciation rate: 5%/Year
    • Rate of technical progress: 1%/Year (constant in all regions and sectors)
    • time steps: ΔT=10
  • 17. Data assumption - fossil fuel potential and costs -
    • Assumed fossil fuel endowment (WEC,2001)
    Linearized cost function based on Rogner (1997) is assumed. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 USA CAN MCM BRA SAM WEP EEP FSU NAF CAF SAF JPN CHN IND ASN TME ANZ XAP Energy Resources(EJ) Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil
  • 18. Sectoral value added in the world
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 19. Loss of value added in the world for Case 2
  • 20. Regional value added in the world
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 21. World final energy consumption
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 22. World primary energy consumption
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 23. Power generation in the world 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 24. Regional carbon emission by region
    • Case 1
    • Case 2
  • 25. Exogenous conditions Lower warming factors & events Upper warming factors & events Lower warming factors & events Upper warming factors & events 4:parameters, constraints, exogenous variables 5:Feedback: consistency check 3:Scenario generation by X-I method 1:TAR-assumptions 2:Structure Analysis among factors Quantitative IAM - economy - technology - energy - natural resource - etc. Integration : Scenario Generation and Simulations
  • 26. Importance of narrative stories
    • Many important “descriptive” factors are essential in the global warming issues.
    • IPCC-SRES emphasized the role of “narrative” story-lines.
    • Structure analysis and the Technological Forecasting methods will provide useful information to construct compatible stories.
    • Extracting consistent stories from the judgments of experts – Cross Impact Method is applicable.
  • 27. Structure Analysis for the Narrative Scenario Generation
  • 28. Applying Cross-Impact method
    • Extract the key factors Cross Impact (X-I) method deals with 8-10 factors at one stage.
    • Define four regions including world To reflect the regional conditions (O)OECD (A)Asia (L)ALM (R)ROW (W)World
    • SRES A1-B2 assumptions Set the key driving forces according to the SRES storylines.
  • 29. Extracted key events of the global warming factors People value the traditional cultures and customs rather than to accept foreign ones. Valuing traditions 8 Education on the global environmental issues diffuses over the world. Penetration of environmental education 7 Internet become familiar and most people use it. Penetration of internet 6 Long-term investments for more than 30 years become difficult. Difficulty in long term investments 5 The environmental additional costs (e.g. relatively expensive renewable sources and recycling costs) are socially accepted. Social acceptance of environmental costs 4 Nuclear power stations are socially accepted and increase. Expansion of nuclear power stations 3 For the sake of risk-hedging of primary energy supply, regions prefer self-sufficient and diversified energy sources. self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources 2 World economy is covered by the unified global large market. Unification of world market 1 Contents of the event Event Events
  • 30. Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption) Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption)
  • 31. Occurrence probabilities and scenarios; Results of X-I method on SRES-A1 assumptions
  • 32. Implication structure on SRES-A1 assumptions
  • 33. Development of scenarios (tentative) A1 assumptions
    • In the A1 case with high per-capita income and low population growth, internet diffuses in all regions and the global unified market appears. Regional culture tends to converge.
    • The long term investments for more than 30 years become difficult and thus nuclear power stations do not increase.
    • The self-sufficient supply and the diversification of primary energy sources do not progress so rapid.
    • Thanks to the diffusion of internet and high income, environmental education become familiar and environmental costs are socially accepted well.
    • People enjoy the high level consumption.
  • 34. Development of scenarios (tentative) A2 assumptions
    • A2 case with high population growth and lower income suggests the relatively conservative world.
    • Two possibilities: (1) The traditional culture and customs dominate the society. (2) Globalization progresses like A1.
    • In case (1), regional block economy will appear. Long term investments become difficult and thus nuclear power may not increase.
    • In the latter case, where the global unified market appears, nuclear power stations are socially accepted as well as the long term investment.
    • Diversification of primary energy sources will progress.
    • Internet which promotes environmental education and environmental cost acceptance diffuses in both cases.
  • 35. Development of scenarios (tentative) B1 assumptions
    • Internet diffuses in all regions and global unified market is founded like A1 case.
    • Environmental education, utilization of renewables and material recycling, and the acceptance of environmental costs are well recognized.
    • The regional traditions and cultures are regarded more important than A1 case due to the environmental education.
    • Globalization of economy and localization of culture appear simultaneously.
    • The latter promotes the self-sufficient supply and the diversification of primary energy sources especially in REF and Asia.
    • Nuclear power will be also accepted in these regions.
    • Long term investments will have few difficulties in OECD, REF and Asia.
  • 36. Development of scenarios (tentative) B2 assumptions
    • Regional cultures tend to converge like A1 case.
    • Global unified economy also appears.
    • Environmental education becomes common and the internet diffuses.
    • Renewables are also well utilized as the environmental costs are widely recognized.
    • Nuclear power will not increase so much although the society accepts the long term investments.
    • Tendency towards the self sufficient supply and the diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so much.
  • 37. Assessments of global warming impacts
    • Phoenix Project does not have global environment monitoring facilities.
    • 2. Phoenix is compiling data and statistics on the impacts and aims to extract the key information according to the suggestions of the experts.
    • 3. Cooperation with other institutes is mostly essential.
    • 3. GIS plays a key role.
  • 38. Possible impacts of Sea-level rise on Rice production area in Bangladesh (100cm sea level rise case)
  • 39. (a) NPP in 2000 (b) NPP in 2050 Comparison of Net Primary Production in South Asia Region Estimation based on ECHAM4
  • 40. Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050 Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050 with Sea Level Rise NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average
  • 41. Potential Rice Production Change due to High Temperature Damage in 2050 India Bangladesh Thailand Vietnam Total Ave-rage Total Total Total Ave-rage Ave-rage Ave-rage
  • 42. Integration of Assessment Modules
    • Integrated assessment incorporates:
    • Uncertainties on climate change, global and regional warming impacts, social and economic context, technological development, etc.
    • Long term views, Middle term strategies and Short term actions
    • - Scientific knowledge and decision making process
  • 43. Expected outcomes
    • The changes of the energy supply-demand systems, industry structure changes and the international industry allocation scenarios will provide the basic information to assess the policy measures.
    • The outcomes of the project will give the helpful information on the energy technology development strategies.
    • The most preferable burden sharing scenario on the carbon emission reduction can be generated.
    • Industry policies on the R&D on the energy and environmental technologies, technology transfer, and other industry strategies can be assessed under the global warming mitigation policies.