“Execution excellence through disciplined rehearsal”  DR. PAUL A. ROMAN, CD, PhD, P.Eng   LCOL (Retd) FRED M. AUBIN, CD, M...
….and if this is what you were expecting today,                    …. you are about to be sorely disappointed© SRTC & QSB ...
IN OUR JOURNEY FROM HERE….                      ….TO HERE                    “What military                    skills, pro...
…because everyone knows the military are experts at strategy!© SRTC & QSB 2013                                            ...
Despite this historic anomaly, the possibilities were endless:                          Strategic Competitive Intelligence...
The Strategic Execution Challenge      If you are in an adversarial and      competitive business      environment, how do...
The Strategic Execution Challenge     How do you test your plans     before you execute them?                             ...
The Strategic Execution Challenge         How do you establish, align and         integrate your corporate         authori...
The Strategic Execution Challenge      How is the feedback      presented to your executive      leadership prior to      ...
The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge                               How are your requirements for          ...
The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge      In business, as in      battle, INTELLIGENCE, STRATE      GY, PL...
The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge                                         The best way to rehearse is  ...
How did we do it in the military?     Simply, we wargamed     every course of action     before committing to a     prefer...
How did we do it in the military?                                  We rehearsed by                                  wargam...
How did we do it in the military?      We rehearsed by      wargaming the actions      of a realistic adversary in      a ...
How did we do it in the military?                                   We wargamed in a                                   coo...
How did we do it in the military?                                   So, what’s the equivalent                             ...
The Strategic Competitive Advantage                                Wargame Hindsight                                     b...
What is Wargaming?      Wargames are real-      time, action-reaction, role-      playing workshops that pit your      key...
It’s a game in name only.     Wargaming is a methodological discipline to test your plans that is     also designed to pro...
It’s a game in name only.                                     The aim of wargaming is to                                  ...
It’s a game in name only.     Wargaming is a conscious attempt to     visualize the flow of business     operations, given...
Its action – reaction - counteraction    Wargaming is a disciplined role    playing activity where key actors    react to ...
Wargame preparation is a LEADERSHIP activity!      Your corporate leadership, strategy, plan and business      environment...
Wargame conduct is a LEADERSHIP activity!      Every event is tested against a competitive reality.  Action   Reaction    ...
Wargame lessons are a LEADERSHIP activity!      After Action Reviews (AARs) are a LEADERSHIP responsibility      and are c...
The only restriction is LEADERSHIP’s imagination!                               • Scale?                               • S...
What type of Wargame suits you best?     There are 3 fundamental types of Wargames:     • The Course of Action (COA) Warga...
Course of Action Wargaming     • These are a series of two of more       sequential and comparable       wargames involvin...
Course of Action Wargaming Example: Problem        Situation: Cadbury Schweppes Purchase of Adams for $4.2 Billion        ...
Course of Action Wargaming Example: Conduct       • Three day Course of Action War Game       • Involved 50-60 primarily i...
Course of Action Wargaming Example: Results  •         Cadbury recovered costs a year early                               ...
Rehearsal Wargaming      • A Rehearsal Wargame is a        comprehensive exercise to        test a single accepted plan   ...
Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Objective       • Situation: Biogen new drug for MS– Fall 1995       • Task: Validate Pricing...
Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Conduct • Three move game • Primarily internal role players (approximately 20) • 4 competitiv...
Rehearsal Wargaming Foresights Generated:   • The need to convince Medicare of the drug’s     advantages, otherwise custom...
Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Results   For the actual launch:    • price was competitive    • guarantee softened.   As of ...
RED TEAMING   • A Red Team Exercise is similar to a     rehearsal Wargame with the     exception that none of the Red Team...
RED TEAMING EXAMPLE • Operation Overlord was the   operation that launched the   invasion of German-occupied   western Eur...
RED TEAMING EXAMPLE   • During the planning     phase, a multidisciplinary     staff of over 150 was     created to shadow...
RED TEAMING EXAMPLE: RESULTS   • OVERLOAD is historically     acknowledged as a huge     success.   • Nonetheless, 30% of ...
RED TEAMING EXAMPLE – WHEN YOU DON’T DO IT                    OVERLOAD    MARKET GARDEN                    GOOD           ...
In summary – wargaming is all about:   • Evaluating courses of action to recommend a     distinct plan of action to corpor...
Want to learn more?© SRTC & QSB 2013                           44
Want to learn more?                                     Conducted over 3 days of formal                                   ...
Food for thought?     Dancers rehearse                          Shouldn’t You?                         Militaries rehearse...
“Execution excellence through disciplined rehearsal”  DR. PAUL A. ROMAN, CD, PhD, P.Eng   LCOL (Retd) FRED M. AUBIN, CD, M...
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Strategic Wargaming For Business Presentation to Deloitte's 50 Best Managed Companies Symposium

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Strategic Wargaming For Business - “Execution excellence through disciplined rehearsal” - Presented by Paul Roman and Fred Aubin to Deloitte's 50 Best Managed Companies Symposium at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre on 16 April 2013

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  • Wargaming is a LEADERSHIP activity. Get direction from corporate leadership on:Defining the problem space.Establish CEO’s criteria for success.Discuss Wargaming methods and options.Agree on whether this is a test of the plan, a rehearsal for execution, or both.Agree on organizational learning requirements.Agree on business targets and objectives to be put at risk / tested.
  • The wargaming process can be as simple as a detailed narrative or master events list (as dictated by your plan or course of action) that describes:actions, probable reactions, counteractions, assets, and resources to be utilized.
  • Validation of corporate strategic assumptionsShared Situational Awareness amongst leadershipConfirmation or refinement of strategic centres of gravity and factorsConfirmation or refinement of your critical competitive, commercial, business or market intelligence requirementsImproved synchronization and alignment of business objectives and activitiesConfirmation or refinement of the comparative pros / cons / strength / weaknesses of particular plans and courses of action (COAs)Confirmation or refinement of your mission analysisConfirmation or refinement of your corporate decision support requirementsDetermination and confirmation of your strategic high value targets…. and those of your competitorsConfirmation or refinement of business targets and markets, clients, products and R&DConfirmation or refinement of your corporate structure and identification of organizational orphans and “enfantsterribles”Identification of branch plans, sequels, new markets and focused opportunitiesRefined performance measuresImproved corporate communication through disciplined and balanced feedback
  • Scalability: Wargames can be utilized at all levels from strategic to tactical level and can also be progressively nested as such. Focus: They can be used to comprehensively test a particular strategy or campaign options or they can be focused to test a singular discreet high risk business initiative or activity. Wargames can test the integration and alignment of an entire spectrum of business activities or discreet activities and initiatives such as: Change Management, Cultural Resistance to Change, Institutional Inertia, Corporate Unity, Commercial Intelligence, Information Security, Brand Protection, etc. The wargaming process can be as simple as a detailed narrative or master events list (as dictated by your plan or course of action) that describes:event, assets, and resources to be utilized. A more comprehensive version adds operational sketches, your business execution graphics and notes to the narrative process in order to gain a clearer picture of how the plan will be executed within a particular business environment. The most sophisticated and perhaps most complex form of Wargaming is modern, computer-aided modeling and simulation.There’s a dangerous seduction here though .....fancier may not always be better.
  • March 2003: Cadbury Scwepps under the leadership of Todd Scwitzer purchase Adams from Pfizer.Adams Brands: Trident, Dentyne, Chiclets, Clorets, Halls and Certs.Adams revenue was flat, margins had dropped from 19 to 12% and was bleeding market share to Wrigley globally and in the USThe purchase cost Cadbury Schweppes dearly as financial markets perceived the Adams acquisition as expensive and complex with at that time, and inexperienced leader! The Cadbury Schweppes share price fell by almost 30 percent.Mission: Demonstrate strong commercial and financial success quickly to restore share price.Target: 7% revenue growth and a return to high teen margins for the Adams businessChallenge: Where to best deploy innovation and commercial resources againts markets and competitors to the greatest effect:In Summary – The wargame was intended to allow Adams to figure out - “where to Play and How to Win
  • Cadbury covered the cost of capital for the Adams acquisition a year earlyAdams core brands grew by more than 7% and margins returned to 19%Trident sales doubled making it the top brand in the worldAdam’s gum share in the US grew from 25% - 34%Wrigley’s remained flat at 34%Globally Adams went from 7% - 27 % while Wrigley’s remained flat at 34%TSR averaged more than 20% driven by a share price that quickly recovered the 30% initial loss and moved on to new heights.
  • Battlefield analogy – Marketshare.Fall 1995, Biogen an innovation R&D drug company after 20 years is ready to launch their own first product – Avonex.BioGen – Fall 1995. New Drug for MSUS FDA approval was imminent and competition was fierce.Perceived competitive advantage was in delivery mechanism: a single injection once per week as opposed to multiple injections every week. Core strength had been R&D and now was entering directly into competition with many of their former clients who were bigger and far more experienced.Objective – Test pricing and market strategies in the US and Western Europe.Four competitor teams: Biogen, Schering/Berlex, Teva and Serono. – All public companies!Fewer than 20 Biogen executives were put on the competing teams to take on their own company. 3 moves projecting 4 years forward.Market team (representing customers) assessed the proposals of the competitor teams and adjusted market share accordingly. The white team converted these into representative financial statements and shareprice.Move 1 – Biogen’s product is priced well above the competition on the belief that their: “BioGen Outcome Guarantee” - if condition deteriorates there would be a full refund!
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002$250 million. Live and computer simulationVan Riper – inappropriately constrained?Lesson about the need for free play. The never stopped and went back to fix the strategy, they brushed the weakness under the carpet and carried on. Given the resources deployed, how could they not. Lesson – bigger is not always better!
  • Strategic Wargaming For Business Presentation to Deloitte's 50 Best Managed Companies Symposium

    1. 1. “Execution excellence through disciplined rehearsal” DR. PAUL A. ROMAN, CD, PhD, P.Eng LCOL (Retd) FRED M. AUBIN, CD, MCGI© SRTC & QSB 2013
    2. 2. ….and if this is what you were expecting today, …. you are about to be sorely disappointed© SRTC & QSB 2013
    3. 3. IN OUR JOURNEY FROM HERE…. ….TO HERE “What military skills, procedures, doctrine s, methodologies and disciplines from the profession of arms have the most traction in the commercial world”? “More importantly, which ones would fill unique capability gaps in the commercial world” ?© SRTC & QSB 2013
    4. 4. …because everyone knows the military are experts at strategy!© SRTC & QSB 2013 4
    5. 5. Despite this historic anomaly, the possibilities were endless: Strategic Competitive Intelligence Strategic Strategic Competitive Mission Targeting Analysis Corporate Centres of Gravity Contingencies, Branc Strategic Plan Development h Plans & Sequels & Campaign Design Strategic Execution, Management & Refinement© SRTC & QSB 2013 5
    6. 6. The Strategic Execution Challenge If you are in an adversarial and competitive business environment, how do you evaluate the various courses of action open to you? How do you know whether your strategy is truly comprehensive, integrated, ad aptive and networked?© SRTC & QSB 2013 6
    7. 7. The Strategic Execution Challenge How do you test your plans before you execute them? How do you test your decision support structures? How do you put your plan under realistic stress before execution?© SRTC & QSB 2013 7
    8. 8. The Strategic Execution Challenge How do you establish, align and integrate your corporate authorities, responsibilities and accountabilities? Are they aligned with the actual decisions that need to be made? Who plays the role of your adversary, your competition, or your clients? Who is your BAD GUY?© SRTC & QSB 2013 8
    9. 9. The Strategic Execution Challenge How is the feedback presented to your executive leadership prior to execution? What separates a great plan from a self-fulfilling prophecy, or….. a self-licking ice-cream cone?© SRTC & QSB 2013 9
    10. 10. The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge How are your requirements for Disciplined Testing, Refinement, Rehearsal & Execution different than those of the military? Short Answer: they’re not.© SRTC & QSB 2013 10
    11. 11. The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge In business, as in battle, INTELLIGENCE, STRATE GY, PLANNING, DECISION MAKING and EXECUTION, are HUMAN ACTIVITIES and the truest test of those things can only be accomplished with human beings in the loop. Tracing a Gantt Chart or doing the Six Sigma street dance is a poor substitute.© SRTC & QSB 2013 11
    12. 12. The Military Challenge versus The Business Challenge The best way to rehearse is if the players that are testing the plan are the very people that will eventually have to make critical decisions in the execution of the plan. ….and do it in a way that ensures your decision support SIMULATION ……. promotes decision support STIMULATION© SRTC & QSB 2013 12
    13. 13. How did we do it in the military? Simply, we wargamed every course of action before committing to a preferred strategy or plan.© SRTC & QSB 2013 13
    14. 14. How did we do it in the military? We rehearsed by wargaming any and all commanders that had to make decisions in the execution, or synchronization of that plan.© SRTC & QSB 2013 14
    15. 15. How did we do it in the military? We rehearsed by wargaming the actions of a realistic adversary in a realistic operational environment.© SRTC & QSB 2013 15
    16. 16. How did we do it in the military? We wargamed in a cooperative leadership and learning environment that believed that sweat and tears in a wargame were preferable to blood and tears on the battlefield.© SRTC & QSB 2013 16
    17. 17. How did we do it in the military? So, what’s the equivalent of blood, sweat and tears on your corporate battlefield?© SRTC & QSB 2013 17
    18. 18. The Strategic Competitive Advantage Wargame Hindsight becomes Business Foresight© SRTC & QSB 2013 18
    19. 19. What is Wargaming? Wargames are real- time, action-reaction, role- playing workshops that pit your key real-life decision makers and managers (Blue Team) … ….against real-time competitive adversaries (Red Team)…. …and disciplined by an executive level White team.© SRTC & QSB 2013 19
    20. 20. It’s a game in name only. Wargaming is a methodological discipline to test your plans that is also designed to promote: • risk mitigation, • innovation, • mechanisms of discovery for leadership, • mechanisms of voice for your teams • real-time organizational learning for all.© SRTC & QSB 2013 20
    21. 21. It’s a game in name only. The aim of wargaming is to ensure continuous improvement in your ability to compete and win on your corporate battlefield. The most important element of Wargaming is not the tool used, but the people who participate.© SRTC & QSB 2013 21
    22. 22. It’s a game in name only. Wargaming is a conscious attempt to visualize the flow of business operations, given joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions, c apabilities and possible courses of actions available to business actors in a given business sector and environment. ……and it’s the best way of getting into your competitor’s head, their decision cycle, their OODA loop.© SRTC & QSB 2013 22
    23. 23. Its action – reaction - counteraction Wargaming is a disciplined role playing activity where key actors react to critical events using an action / reaction / counteraction method of friendly and competitor interaction. Each step in the execution of the plan or strategy is examined in the following detail: • Action • Reaction • Counteraction • Observations • Record • Review • Learning© SRTC & QSB 2013 23
    24. 24. Wargame preparation is a LEADERSHIP activity! Your corporate leadership, strategy, plan and business environment are the foundations to preparing, designing and executing your Wargame. Mission Analysis Constraints Vision Restraints If there’s a problem with any of these, the wargame will Assumptions show it.© SRTC & QSB 2013 24
    25. 25. Wargame conduct is a LEADERSHIP activity! Every event is tested against a competitive reality. Action Reaction Action Counteraction Reaction Observations Action Counteraction Record Reaction Observations Review Counteraction Action Record Learning Observations Reaction Review Record Counteraction Learning Review Observations Learning Record Review Learning© SRTC & QSB 2013 25
    26. 26. Wargame lessons are a LEADERSHIP activity! After Action Reviews (AARs) are a LEADERSHIP responsibility and are conducted by your corporate leadership, facilitated by the White Team Lead and supported by the Blue and Red Leads. • They are inclusive but disciplined. • Must be constructive and detailed. • Egos are left at the door. • Lever innovation by posing “what if” questions.© SRTC & QSB 2013 26
    27. 27. The only restriction is LEADERSHIP’s imagination! • Scale? • Scope? • Focus? • Method? Wargaming is a HUMAN activity – the SIMULATION must provide STIMULATION© SRTC & QSB 2013 27
    28. 28. What type of Wargame suits you best? There are 3 fundamental types of Wargames: • The Course of Action (COA) Wargame • The Rehearsal Wargame • The Red Team Exercise© SRTC & QSB 2013 28
    29. 29. Course of Action Wargaming • These are a series of two of more sequential and comparable wargames involving the same conditions, actors and weighting criteria to determine the most viable options available in terms of risk, execution, pay off, etc. • This is a decision support tool for senior executives to recommend a distinct plan of action to corporate leadership. • Red & Blue players are normally drawn from the extant pool of executives normally involved in your company’s strategic and operational planning process.© SRTC & QSB 2013 29
    30. 30. Course of Action Wargaming Example: Problem Situation: Cadbury Schweppes Purchase of Adams for $4.2 Billion Problem: Stagnant Adams share price and bleeding market share. Mission: Demonstrate strong commercial and financial success quickly to restore share price. Adams Wrigley Global #2 Chewing gum Global #1 Chewing gum Business War Games, Ben Gilad, 2009© SRTC & QSB 2013
    31. 31. Course of Action Wargaming Example: Conduct • Three day Course of Action War Game • Involved 50-60 primarily internal business leaders Adams Wrigley Global #2 Chewing gum Global #1 Chewing gum Business War Games, Ben Gilad, 2009© SRTC & QSB 2013
    32. 32. Course of Action Wargaming Example: Results • Cadbury recovered costs a year early • “From my perspective, these accomplishments reflect the focus • Adams core brands grew by more than and effort of a great team of people 7% and margins returned to 19% across multiple fronts and informed by an outstanding “war games” process of business and financial self- analysis…” • Trident (Adams) sales doubled making it the top brand in the world • Todd Stitzer • CEO Cadbury • March 2008 • Adam’s gum share in the US grew from 25% - 34%. Wrigley’s remained flat at 34% • Globally Adams went from 7% - 27 % while Wrigley’s remained flat at 34% • Share revenue averaged more than 20% driven by a share price that quickly recovered the 30% initial loss and moved on to new heights. Business War Games, Ben Gilad, 2009© SRTC & QSB 2013
    33. 33. Rehearsal Wargaming • A Rehearsal Wargame is a comprehensive exercise to test a single accepted plan prior to its execution. • The BLUE TEAM involves all senior executives who must make decisions and manage activities in the execution of that plan and confined to their accepted decision support roles. • The RED TEAM is drawn from corporate leadership team or subject matter experts.© SRTC & QSB 2013
    34. 34. Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Objective • Situation: Biogen new drug for MS– Fall 1995 • Task: Validate Pricing and Market Strategies for New Product Launch • Focus: Premium pricing strategy based upon a quality guarantee – full refund if condition deteriorates Wargaming for Leaders. Herman, Frost & Kurtz, 2009© SRTC & QSB 2013
    35. 35. Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Conduct • Three move game • Primarily internal role players (approximately 20) • 4 competitive teams and a market team • Move 1 – early success but confusion over the guarantee resulting in regulated requirement for a reserve fund – stock price drops • Move 2 – guarantee adjustments made and prices are discounted. Incumbent also discounts and improves delivery mechanism • Move 3 – new drugs on the market Wargaming for Leaders. Herman, Frost & Kurtz, 2009© SRTC & QSB 2013
    36. 36. Rehearsal Wargaming Foresights Generated: • The need to convince Medicare of the drug’s advantages, otherwise customers would have difficulty getting the drug covered • The need to field a deluge of questions from patients wanting details about the guarantee© SRTC & QSB 2013 Wargaming for Leaders. Herman, Frost & Kurtz, 2009
    37. 37. Rehearsal Wargaming Example: Results For the actual launch: • price was competitive • guarantee softened. As of 2003, Biogen claimed their MS drug to be the market leader in the US. Being bold in marketing a new product can pay big dividends, but the need for caution in highly regulated industries became readily apparent in the game.© SRTC & QSB 2013 Wargaming for Leaders. Herman, Frost & Kurtz, 2009
    38. 38. RED TEAMING • A Red Team Exercise is similar to a rehearsal Wargame with the exception that none of the Red Team players are drawn from company’s decision support stakeholders. • Each RED TEAM player is an outside subject matter expert that is not a company stakeholder and is only given a reasonable amount of information that a normal competitor would have. • The RED TEAM’s role is not merely to test the plan as adversarial players but rather to put it under extreme competitive stress.© SRTC & QSB 2013
    39. 39. RED TEAMING EXAMPLE • Operation Overlord was the operation that launched the invasion of German-occupied western Europe during World War II by Allied forces. commencing on 6 June 1944. • A 12,000-plane airborne assault preceded an amphibious assault involving almost 7,000 vessels. • Nearly 160,000 troops crossed the English Channel on 6 June; more than three million troops were in France by the end of August© SRTC & QSB 2013
    40. 40. RED TEAMING EXAMPLE • During the planning phase, a multidisciplinary staff of over 150 was created to shadow the OVERLORD planning team. • Their only mission was to develop reasonable challenges to the plan from a friendly, enemy, environment al and chance perspective. They were ordered to find ways to make it fail. • Over 4 months, they established 700 issues which were exercised and eventually dictated changes to the OVERLORD plan.© SRTC & QSB 2013
    41. 41. RED TEAMING EXAMPLE: RESULTS • OVERLOAD is historically acknowledged as a huge success. • Nonetheless, 30% of the RED TEAM’s predictions still came to pass despite changes to the revised OVERLORD plan. • However, since commanders and staffs were prepared for these issues, branch plans and sequels were already prepared.© SRTC & QSB 2013
    42. 42. RED TEAMING EXAMPLE – WHEN YOU DON’T DO IT OVERLOAD MARKET GARDEN GOOD BAD© SRTC & QSB 2013
    43. 43. In summary – wargaming is all about: • Evaluating courses of action to recommend a distinct plan of action to corporate leadership; • Levering rehearsals as a comprehensive exercise under conditions of extreme competitive stress to test critical plans prior to execution; • Reinforcing Unity of Thought, Purpose and Action throughout your corporate team through action/reaction/counter-reaction role playing; • Visualizing of the flow of business operations, given joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions, capabilitie s and possible courses of actions available to business actors in a given business sector and environment. WARGAME HINDSIGHT becomes BUSINESS FORESIGHT© SRTC & QSB 2013 43
    44. 44. Want to learn more?© SRTC & QSB 2013 44
    45. 45. Want to learn more? Conducted over 3 days of formal instruction and practical scenario-based exercises, the program will: • Illustrate how Wargaming provides a unique competitive advantage. • Utilize Wargaming techniques to develop comparative and equitable strategic courses of action. • Demonstrate Wargaming as a real- time, action-reaction, role-playing methodology that pits your real-life decision-makers and managers against real-time adversaries. • Teach Wargaming techniques as a TORONTO disciplined baseline for strategic execution rehearsal. 13-15 May 2013© SRTC & QSB 2013 45
    46. 46. Food for thought? Dancers rehearse Shouldn’t You? Militaries rehearse Actors rehearse© SRTC & QSB 2013 46
    47. 47. “Execution excellence through disciplined rehearsal” DR. PAUL A. ROMAN, CD, PhD, P.Eng LCOL (Retd) FRED M. AUBIN, CD, MCGI© SRTC & QSB 2013
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