Insert your logo here                        Homeless in the                         Netherlands:      a population size e...
This presentation   Background   Definition   Research questions   Method   Results   Conclusions         European R...
Background   Strong policy focus on the local level since    2006 (“homelessness action plan”)   Size estimations on the...
Definition   Definition according to European Typology of    Homelessness and Housing Exclusion (ETHOS)    and refers to ...
Research questions   What is the size of the actual homeless    population in the Netherlands on the 1th    of January 20...
Method: analyses   Capture recapture   Estimate the unobserved part of a    population by using proportions   Using reg...
Illustration 1   Total population: N   Sample 1: n1, these are marked   Sample 2: n2   Marked cases in sample 2: m2  ...
Illustration 2      B= B=                               b, c and d have been      0 1                                  ob...
Method: Resources   A matched file of people who, according to the    national population register, were registered on   ...
Method: Assumptions   CRC in a two-list case assumes:   Population is closed   No matching problems. Absence of:      ...
Have the assumptions been met?   Closed population: yes, by using a    reference date   Perfect record linkage: yes, by ...
Results        Population size estimation   Observed population in registers: 5169   Unobserved part of population: 12 5...
Profile of homeless population      %100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10                                                       ...
Conclusions   About 18 homeless people per 10 000    inhabitants   Profile Dutch homeless: a 40 year old    unmarried ma...
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Homelessness in the Netherlands: A Population Size Estimation and Profile Description

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Presentation given by Moniek Coumans, Hans Schmeets, Judith Wolf, Peter van der Heijden and Maarten Cruyff, The Netherlands at a FEANTSA Research Conference on "Understanding Homelessness and Housing Exclusion in the New European Context", Budapest, Hungary, 2010

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Homelessness in the Netherlands: A Population Size Estimation and Profile Description

  1. 1. Insert your logo here Homeless in the Netherlands: a population size estimation and profile description Moniek Coumans, Statistics Netherlands Judith Wolf, UMC Radboud University Nijmegen Peter van der Heijden, University of Utrecht Maarten Cruyff, University of Utrecht/ Statistics Netherlands Hans Schmeets, Statistics Netherlands European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN THE ENHR NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  2. 2. This presentation Background Definition Research questions Method Results Conclusions European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  3. 3. Background Strong policy focus on the local level since 2006 (“homelessness action plan”) Size estimations on the national level are not up-to-date National estimations vary largely Actual and reliable information about the Dutch homeless population on national level is needed European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  4. 4. Definition Definition according to European Typology of Homelessness and Housing Exclusion (ETHOS) and refers to roofless people: Living in the streets or covered public spaces Overnight shelter, low threshold shelter or transient accommodations run by the homeless sector, including emergency shelters In the homes of friends, acquaintances or relatives European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  5. 5. Research questions What is the size of the actual homeless population in the Netherlands on the 1th of January 2009? What is the profile of the population being estimated (in terms of gender, age, marital status and origin)? European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  6. 6. Method: analyses Capture recapture Estimate the unobserved part of a population by using proportions Using registrations instead of samplesExample size estimation of the homeless population in Budapest: Dá & Snijders, 2002 vid European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  7. 7. Illustration 1 Total population: N Sample 1: n1, these are marked Sample 2: n2 Marked cases in sample 2: m2 m2/n2 ≈ n1/N European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  8. 8. Illustration 2 B= B=  b, c and d have been 0 1 observedA= a b  a can be calculated0 by: bc/d  N can be calculatedA= c d by b+c+d+bc/d1 N European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  9. 9. Method: Resources A matched file of people who, according to the national population register, were registered on an address of a night shelter or low threshold provision An administrative file of people who were receiving a social payment according to the regulation of homelessness An selection of homeless people from the national alcohol and drug information system (LADIS, NIVZ) European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  10. 10. Method: Assumptions CRC in a two-list case assumes: Population is closed No matching problems. Absence of:  Incorrect matches  Missed matches Capture probabilities homogeneous over individuals. Prob of being in list 1 independent of prob of being in list 2Introductions: Bishop et al (1975); IWGDMF (1995) European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  11. 11. Have the assumptions been met? Closed population: yes, by using a reference date Perfect record linkage: yes, by using the national population register Homogeneous capture probabilities over individuals: partly, by using covariates Independency between both lists: Partly, by using covariates and third list European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  12. 12. Results Population size estimation Observed population in registers: 5169 Unobserved part of population: 12 598 About 17 750 roofless people 95% CI 15 500-21 000 Plausibility? European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  13. 13. Profile of homeless population %100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Non-western Not married 0 (excl. Dutch) 18-29 years 30-49 years 50-64 years background background background Devorced/ Married Female widowed Male Western Dutch Gender Age Marital status Origin Dutch population Homeless population European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  14. 14. Conclusions About 18 homeless people per 10 000 inhabitants Profile Dutch homeless: a 40 year old unmarried male A considerable part of the Dutch population is still roofless; important for Dutch policy European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010 UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

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